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New Orleans Local Weather thread - dkmac - 07-20-2009 05:17 AM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
334 AM CDT MON JUL 20 2009

.DISCUSSION...
A DRY FORECAST IS IN STORE FOR THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH TONIGHT
AS A DRY AND STABLE AIRMASS REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS REGION. A QUASI
STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS WELL OFF THE COAST EARLY THIS
MORNING WITH DEW POINTS TO THE NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY IN THE LOWER
AND MID 60S ACROSS THE REGION. ANOTHER VERY COMFORTABLE DAY FOR THE
SEASON IS ON TAP WITH LOW HUMIDITY LEVELS AND TEMPERATURES
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.

AS THE EASTERN U.S. UPPER TROUGH LIFTS OFF TO THE NORTHEAST LATER
TODAY INTO TUESDAY...THE SURFACE BOUNDARY OVER THE NORTHERN GULF
WILL BECOME DIFFUSE AND SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL DEVELOP
ALLOWING A RETURN OF MOISTURE MORE TYPICAL OF THE SEASON. AS THIS
OCCURS...RAIN CHANCES WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE FROM THE WEST FROM
TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY AS A SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES OUT
OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND INTO THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN PLAINS TODAY
AND APPROACHES AND MOVES ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AND AND GULF
COAST STATES TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. SUFFICIENT MOISTURE
RETURN IN ADVANCE OF THIS FEATURE SHOULD RESULT IN A LEAST
CLIMATOLOGICAL POPS FOR WEDNESDAY...40 TO 50 PERCENT RANGE. IN THE
WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM...A RATHER BROAD UPPER TROUGH WILL BE IN PLACE
ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY WITH A MEAN RIDGE OVER THE
SOUTHWEST CONUS AND ROCKIES. THIS WILL RESULT IN NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND CENTRAL GULF COAST
REGION. EMBEDDED IN THIS FLOW WILL BE WEAK IMPULSES THAT IN
COMBINATION WITH A MOIST AND UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE WILL RESULT IN
DAILY CHANCES FOR CONVECTION THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.
DURING THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...AN UPPER TROUGH WILL DEEPEN AGAIN
OVER THE EASTERN U.S. WITH ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE
SOUTHERN U.S. SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. DAILY CONVECTION CHANCES WILL
CONTINUE DURING THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...
A VERY DRY AND STABLE AIRMASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD. AS A RESULT...VFR CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
AT ALL TERMINALS. 32

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS WILL TURN MORE SOUTHERLY THROUGH THE DAY...AS A RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO SHIFT TOWARD THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. A
SLIGHTLY STRONGER PRESSURE GRADIENT SHOULD ALSO DEVELOP BETWEEN
THE RIDGE AND A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE ARKLATEX
REGION. HOWEVER...WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW ANY
ADVISORY CRITERIA. THIS SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE
WEEK...WITH SEAS NO HIGHER THAN 2 FEET EXPECTED. 32


New Orleans Local Weather thread - dkmac - 07-21-2009 05:55 AM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
403 AM CDT TUE JUL 21 2009

.DISCUSSION...
A MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN WILL RETURN TO THE REGION FOR
MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. A POTENT SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE
OUT OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
TODAY BEFORE SHIFTING EASTWARD ACROSS THE TENNESSEE AND LOWER OHIO
VALLEYS TONIGHT. ALTHOUGH A BIT FAR TO THE NORTH...THIS FEATURE
SHOULD HELP SPARK SOME CONVECTION ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TODAY
AS AN INCREASINGLY MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS RETURNS TO THE AREA.
THE BEST CHANCE FOR CONVECTION WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND
NORTHWESTERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA...WITH LOCATIONS
FARTHER SOUTH MORE LIKELY TO REMAIN CAPPED DURING A GOOD PART OF
THE DAY. IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM...NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL
PREVAIL DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND
WITH A MEAN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN U.S. AND A MEAN UPPER
TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. A SERIES OF SOMEWHAT DIFFICULT TO
TIME IMPULSES EMBEDDED IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW WILL IMPACT THE
REGION DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. ONE SUCH IMPULSE IF FORECAST TO
APPROACH AND MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY. THIS IMPULSE IN
COMBINATION WITH A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT WILL HAVE SAGGED
SOUTHWARD INTO THE AREA BY THAT TIME IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN AN
INCREASE IN CONVECTIVE COVERAGE ON THAT DAY. ANOTHER STRONGER
IMPULSE WILL LIKELY MOVE ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY AS ANOTHER WEAK
FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES THE AREA AS THE UPPER TROUGH DEEPENS
ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY. THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE
EASTERN U.S. IS FORECAST TO BEGIN TO LIFT TO THE NORTH AND
NORTHEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK. 11

&&

.AVIATION...
A MORE UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL BE IN PLACE TODAY...AS SOUTHERLY FLOW
OFF THE GULF OF MEXICO CONTINUES TO TRANSPORT IN RICH DEEP GULF
MOISTURE. AS A RESULT...EXPECT THE POSSIBILITY OF A BIT MORE
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...WITH A
CONTINUATION OF A MID-LEVEL CAP...EXPECT ONLY ISOLATED COVERAGE.
WITH THIS IN MIND...WILL OPT TO LEAVE OUT MENTION OF CONVECTION IN
THE TERMINAL FORECASTS FOR THIS AFTERNOON. IF CONVECTION
DEVELOPS...A QUICK AMENDMENT TO REFLECT THE SITUATION WILL WORK
BEST. OUTSIDE OF THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY..VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE
THE RULE AT ALL TERMINALS. 32


&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN FIRMLY ENTRENCHED OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF
MEXICO THROUGH WEDNESDAY...ALLOWING FOR A PERSISTENT LIGHT SOUTHERLY
FLOW TO CONTINUE. HOWEVER...A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL APPROACH THE
COAST AND TURN STATIONARY WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...AND
LINGER OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND. HOWEVER...OVERALL
WINDS SHOULD REMAIN IN THE 5 TO 10 KNOT RANGE THROUGH FRIDAY...DUE
TO AN OVERALL WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT ALONG THE FRONT. GOING INTO
THE WEEKEND...THE GRADIENT WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE AS A SURFACE
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE FORMS IN THE ARKLATEX REGION. SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW OF 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER SEAS CAN BE EXPECTED.
HOWEVER...CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN WELL BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA.


New Orleans Local Weather thread - ROLLTIDE - 07-21-2009 07:12 AM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
403 AM CDT TUE JUL 21 2009

.DISCUSSION...
A MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN WILL RETURN TO THE REGION FOR
MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. A POTENT SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE
OUT OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
TODAY BEFORE SHIFTING EASTWARD ACROSS THE TENNESSEE AND LOWER OHIO
VALLEYS TONIGHT. ALTHOUGH A BIT FAR TO THE NORTH...THIS FEATURE
SHOULD HELP SPARK SOME CONVECTION ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TODAY
AS AN INCREASINGLY MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS RETURNS TO THE AREA.
THE BEST CHANCE FOR CONVECTION WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND
NORTHWESTERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA...WITH LOCATIONS
FARTHER SOUTH MORE LIKELY TO REMAIN CAPPED DURING A GOOD PART OF
THE DAY. IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM...NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL
PREVAIL DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND
WITH A MEAN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN U.S. AND A MEAN UPPER
TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. A SERIES OF SOMEWHAT DIFFICULT TO
TIME IMPULSES EMBEDDED IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW WILL IMPACT THE
REGION DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. ONE SUCH IMPULSE IF FORECAST TO
APPROACH AND MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY. THIS IMPULSE IN
COMBINATION WITH A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT WILL HAVE SAGGED
SOUTHWARD INTO THE AREA BY THAT TIME IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN AN
INCREASE IN CONVECTIVE COVERAGE ON THAT DAY. ANOTHER STRONGER
IMPULSE WILL LIKELY MOVE ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY AS ANOTHER WEAK
FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES THE AREA AS THE UPPER TROUGH DEEPENS
ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY. THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE
EASTERN U.S. IS FORECAST TO BEGIN TO LIFT TO THE NORTH AND
NORTHEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK. 11

&&

.AVIATION...
A MORE UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL BE IN PLACE TODAY...AS SOUTHERLY FLOW
OFF THE GULF OF MEXICO CONTINUES TO TRANSPORT IN RICH DEEP GULF
MOISTURE. AS A RESULT...EXPECT THE POSSIBILITY OF A BIT MORE
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...WITH A
CONTINUATION OF A MID-LEVEL CAP...EXPECT ONLY ISOLATED COVERAGE.
WITH THIS IN MIND...WILL OPT TO LEAVE OUT MENTION OF CONVECTION IN
THE TERMINAL FORECASTS FOR THIS AFTERNOON. IF CONVECTION
DEVELOPS...A QUICK AMENDMENT TO REFLECT THE SITUATION WILL WORK
BEST. OUTSIDE OF THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY..VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE
THE RULE AT ALL TERMINALS. 32


&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN FIRMLY ENTRENCHED OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF
MEXICO THROUGH WEDNESDAY...ALLOWING FOR A PERSISTENT LIGHT SOUTHERLY
FLOW TO CONTINUE. HOWEVER...A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL APPROACH THE
COAST AND TURN STATIONARY WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...AND
LINGER OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND. HOWEVER...OVERALL
WINDS SHOULD REMAIN IN THE 5 TO 10 KNOT RANGE THROUGH FRIDAY...DUE
TO AN OVERALL WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT ALONG THE FRONT. GOING INTO
THE WEEKEND...THE GRADIENT WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE AS A SURFACE
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE FORMS IN THE ARKLATEX REGION. SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW OF 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER SEAS CAN BE EXPECTED.
HOWEVER...CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN WELL BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA.
32


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB 89 70 89 69 / 40 20 40 20
BTR 91 72 91 72 / 40 20 30 20
MSY 90 75 90 75 / 20 10 30 20
GPT 88 74 88 73 / 20 10 40 20

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&


New Orleans Local Weather thread - ROLLTIDE - 07-22-2009 05:01 AM

000
FXUS64 KLIX 220953
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
453 AM CDT WED JUL 22 2009

.CORRECTION TO PREVIOUS DISCUSSION POPS...

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 440 AM CDT WED JUL 22 2009/

SHORT TERM...
RAIN CHANCES INCREASING THIS MORNING AS SHARP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
CONTINUES TO PUSH TOWARDS AREA. AT 06Z...A SURFACE COLD FRONT
STRETCHED FROM KMEM TO KSHV INTO CENTRAL TX. WITH THIS BOUNDARY AS
A FOCUSING MECHANISM...A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS HAS DEVELOPED IN
THE MOISTURE-RICH AIRMASS NORTH AND WEST OF THIS REGION.

00Z SOUNDING SHOWED SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE BETWEEN 700 AND 550 MB
AT KLIX...WITH PW OF 1.56 INCHES. DEEPER MOISTURE WAS EVIDENT AT
00Z AT KLCH...WHERE PW WAS ALREADY AT 2.07 INCHES. WITH WINDS
PERSISTING FROM SOUTH...MOISTURE FETCH FROM GULF OF MEXICO WILL
PROVIDE SUFFICIENT LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE THROUGH THIS FORECAST
CYCLE TO PRODUCE SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY.

CONTINUED WITH NAM SOLUTION FOR FIRST PART OF THE FORECAST. SHARP
500 MB TROUGH BECOMES MORE DIFFUSE WITH TIME IN NAM SOLUTION.
STILL TROUGH AXIS REMAINS OVER LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY...AS
SYSTEM PUSHES SLOWLY ACROSS GREAT LAKES WITH TIME.

LONG TERM...
AS THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH PROGRESSES TOWARD THE EAST IN NAM...THE
SOLUTION BECOMES CONSIDERABLY SLOWER AND THE TROUGH AXIS LINGERS.
THE SURFACE FRONT PUSHES FARTHER SOUTH IN THE NAM SOLUTION AND
REACHES SOUTH MISSISSIPPI AND CENTRAL LOUISIANA BY 00Z FRIDAY...AS
FLOW ALOFT BECOMES MORE WEST-NORTHWEST. BY 12Z FRIDAY...EXPECT THE
BOUNDARY WILL PROGRESS TO THE GULF COAST. THE BEST CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION WILL BE ALONG THE LOUISIANA/MISSISSIPPI COASTS WHERE
MOISTURE WILL POOL AHEAD OF BOUNDARY.

ACCEPTED THE GFS SOLUTION FOR THE LATTER PART OF FORECAST. CHANCES
OF PRECIPITATION WILL PERSIST INTO NEXT WEEK IN UNSTABLE AIRMASS...
AS A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES RIPPLE THROUGH UPPER- AND MID-LEVEL
FLOW. THE PATTERN WILL REMAIN HIGHLY AMPLIFIED WITH THE WESTERN
RIDGE AND EASTERN TROUGH. THIS WILL KEEP THIS REGION IN WEST-
NORTHWEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW. BY 06Z MON...THE INITIAL 500 MB TROUGH
AXIS IS ALMOST INDISTINGUISHABLE IN GFS. AT THE SAME TIME...ANOTHER
MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND SURFACE FRONT BECOME PROMINENT OVER
CENTRAL PLAINS. THESE FEATURES MOVE SOUTHEAST TOWARD THIS AREA...
REINFORCING THE RAIN CHANCES THROUGHOUT THE LATTER PART OF THE
FORECAST CYCLE.

AVIATION...

EXPECT SOME CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE REGION TODAY.
CONVECTION SHOULD BE MOST PROMINENT NEAR KMCB AND KBTR...THE BEST
LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT EXISTS OVER THE
NORTHERN AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. AWAY FROM THE
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY...VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE THE RULE AT ALL
TERMINALS. HOWEVER...A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR VISIBILITIES MAY IMPACT
KMCB AFTER 08Z. 32


New Orleans Local Weather thread - dkmac - 07-22-2009 12:58 PM

SHORT TERM FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1143 AM CDT WED JUL 22 2009

LAZ034>040-046>050-MSZ068>071-077-221845-
POINTE COUPEE-WEST FELICIANA-EAST FELICIANA-ST. HELENA-TANGIPAHOA-
WASHINGTON-ST. TAMMANY-IBERVILLE-WEST BATON ROUGE-
EAST BATON ROUGE-ASCENSION-LIVINGSTON-WILKINSON-AMITE-PIKE-
WALTHALL-PEARL RIVER-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...NEW ROADS...LIVONIA...
ST. FRANCISVILLE...JACKSON...CLINTON...GREENSBURG...MONTPELIER...
HAMMOND...PONCHATOULA...BOGALUSA...FRANKLINTON...SLIDELL...
MANDEVILLE...COVINGTON...LACOMBE...PLAQUEMINE...WHITE CASTLE...
PORT ALLEN...ADDIS...BRUSLY...BATON ROUGE...GONZALES...
DONALDSONVILLE...DENHAM SPRINGS...WALKER...CENTREVILLE...
WOODVILLE...GLOSTER...LIBERTY...CROSBY...MCCOMB...TYLERTOWN...
PICAYUNE
1143 AM CDT WED JUL 22 2009

.NOW...
RAIN...AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS...WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD
ACROSS SOUTHWEST MISSISSIPPI AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST
LOUISIANA. MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL REMAIN NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 12. RAIN AMOUNTS OF AROUND ONE INCH IN AN HOUR CAN BE
EXPECTED WITH THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION...MAINLY BETWEEN MCCOMB
AND BATON ROUGE.


New Orleans Local Weather thread - ROLLTIDE - 07-23-2009 06:02 AM

000
FXUS64 KLIX 230923
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
423 AM CDT THU JUL 23 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER AIR ANALYSIS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE MAIN TROUGH JUST EAST OF
THE HUDSON TO SOUTHEAST CONUS. A SHORT WAVE...NEAR THE BASE OF THE
MAIN TROUGH...HAS ALLOWED MOISTURE TO POOL JUST AHEAD OF THIS
WAVE. AS A RESULT...INITIALIZED GFS PW FIELD DISPLAYED OF 2 INCHES
FROM ATCHAFALAYA BAY TO MOBILE. LOCAL RADAR SHOWED CONVECTION IN
THE SAME AREA. SURFACE MAP SHOWED A 1010MB LOW OVER OHIO VALLEY
WITH A FRONT EXTENDING SOUTH TO CENTRAL ALABAMA TO THE MISSISSIPPI
COAST TO SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
LOOKING FOR THE POSITIVELY TILTED SHORT WAVE TO BECOME NEUTRAL
TODAY...SCOURING OUT MID LAYER MOISTURE. CONVECTION WILL TRACK
EAST AND SOME CONVECTION MAY BE STRONG OVER THE COASTAL WATERS
THIS MORNING...MAINLY GUSTY WINDS. ISOLATED CONVECTION IS STILL
POSSIBLE OVER LAND...BUT PW LESS THAN 1.5 INCHES WILL BE IN PLACE
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. GFS AND NAM INITIALIZED LESS THAN 1
INCH PW VALUES ACROSS OKLAHOMA AND ARKANSAS. WITH MAIN TROUGH AXIS
REMAINING EAST OF FORECAST AREA THROUGH FRIDAY AND OVER THE
WEEKEND...NORTHWEST FLOW WILL LIKELY ADVECT THIS MID LAYER DRY AIR
OVER THE CENTRAL GULF COAST FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THUS RAIN CHANCES
WILL BE LIMITED BOTH DAYS. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN AND
ISOLATED CONVECTION MAY DEVELOP FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. ANOTHER STORM
WILL DIVE OUT OF CANADA ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES LATE SATURDAY. AN
ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL ATTEMPT TO PUSH INTO THE FORECAST
AREA SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. WILL RETURN RAIN CHANCE TO NORM SUNDAY
AND THEREAFTER AS LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOME SOUTHERLY. UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE OVER ROCKIES IS EXPECTED TO RETROGRADE TO THE WEST COAST
NEXT AND ALLOW ANOTHER UNUSUAL WAVE TO APPROACH THE CENTRAL GULF
COAST TUESDAY. RAIN CHANCES COULD APPROACH LIKELY BY MID NEXT
WEEK...WILL MAINTAIN CHANCE POPS FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
CONVECTION ALONG A STALLED FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO FIRE THIS MORNING
ALONG AND EAST OF A LINE FROM PEARL RIVER MISS BACK TO HOUMA. THIS
SHOULD BE THE MAIN AREA OF TS ACTIVITY TODAY WITH SOME BUILDING BACK
TOWARD THE BTR AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON. NO OTHER PROBLEMS
EXPECTED. SOME FOG IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER NIGHT TONIGHT AND
WILL LINGER INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS NEAR MCB AND BTR. EXPECT
THIS FOG TO RESULT IN MVFR...OR EVEN IFR VSBYS NEAR MCB. ANY FOG
SHOULD CLEAR OUT BY 15Z WITH A RETURN TO VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH MOST
OF THE DAY FRIDAY.

&&


New Orleans Local Weather thread - dkmac - 07-24-2009 06:03 AM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
427 AM CDT FRI JUL 24 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED A WEAK BOUNDARY FROM THE CAROLINAS
TO THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE THEN MAINLY WEST NEAR INTERSTATE 10. IN
ADDITION...A 1016MB HIGH WAS LOCATED OVER ARKANSAS AND SUB 65
DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES NORTH OF MCCOMB. 00Z SOUNDING REVEALED A PW
VALUE AROUND 1.4 INCHES WITH A DRY NW FLOW BETWEEN 700 AND 500MB.
UPPER AIR ANALYSIS CONTINUE TO SHOW A BROAD TROUGH WITH THE AXIS
FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF.

.SHORT TERM...
NORTHWEST FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE TROUGH WILL MAINTAIN PW
VALUES LESS THAN 1.5 INCHES ACROSS THE NORTH HALF OF THE FORECAST
AREA. MOISTURE WILL POOL ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE TROUGH...MAINLY
WEST TO EAST ACROSS NORTH GULF WITH A SWATH PW VALUES AROUND 2
INCHES AND THIS SWATH REMAINS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ERGO...ELEVATED
THTE VALUES IN LL OVER COASTAL WATERS WILL YIELD ISOLATED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH NIGHT. FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...SURFACE HEATING
WILL INCREASE INSTABILITY AND MARGINAL MOISTURE WILL YIELD
ISOLATED CONVECTION ACROSS SOUTH HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA.
LOWERED SURFACE DP WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO HEAT AND COOL THROUGH
SATURDAY...MAINLY ACROSS NORTH ZONES.

.LONG TERM...
A WEAK DISTURBANCE OVER OKLAHOMA IS EXPECTED TO DIVE SOUTHEAST
OVER NORTHWEST GULF AND MAINTAIN THE THREAT OF CONVECTION OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS STARTING SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. AS A RESULT OF THE
DISTURBANCE...A WEAK TROUGH AXIS WILL DEVELOP FROM NORTH CENTRAL
GULF TO WEST GULF. AT THE SAME TIME...SURF RIDGE WILL SLOWLY
BECOME MORE DEVELOPED ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND EAST
GULF...THUS INCREASING THE SOUTHERLY FLOW SUNDAY. MOISTURE RETURN
WILL INCREASE RAIN CHANCES STARTING SUNDAY. BY NEXT WEEK...THE
OVERALL PATTERN WILL CHANGE WITH THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE
ROCKIES SHIFTING WEST ON TUESDAY. THE MAIN TROUGH WILL RETROGRADE
WEST OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS WITH ANOTHER DISTURBANCE MOVING ACROSS
THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. THIS WILL
ALLOW MOISTURE TO POOL WELL NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA BUT ATM
OVER FORECAST AREA WILL HAVE PLENTY OF MOISTURE. RAIN CHANCES
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORM CAN BE EXPECTED FOR NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR SHOULD CONTINUE FOR MCB AND BTR TERMINALS TODAY. SOME -BR
CONDITIONS DURING THE MORNING AT GPT AND MSY BUT SHOULD NOT FALL
BELOW 3-4SM. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY AFFECT MSY AND GPT TODAY BUT
CONFIDENCE OF DEVELOPMENT IS NOT HIGH FOR THE BTR AND MCB SITES.

&&

.MARINE...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ALONG AND SOUTH
OF A STALLED BOUNDARY OVER THE NEAR SHORE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH THE
FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND. A SURFACE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO REMAIN IN
PLACE NEAR FLORIDA AND RIDGE OVER THE NORTHERN GULF THROUGH MID
WEEK...RESULTING IN WESTERLY AND SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASING FROM
AROUND 5 KNOTS TODAY AND POSSIBLY SATURDAY UP TO AROUND 15 KTS BY
MID WEEK. WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE HIGHER IN THE VICINITY OF
THUNDERSTORMS. A SECOND FRONT IS FORECAST TO APPROACH THE AREA BY
THE END OF NEXT WEEK.


New Orleans Local Weather thread - dkmac - 07-25-2009 04:00 AM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
331 AM CDT SAT JUL 25 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE CWA AT THIS TIME.
THIS SHOULD SWEEP MOST DEEP MOISTURE OUT OF THE AREA DURING THE
MORNING HOURS. MOISTURE BOUNDARY SITTING CLOSE TO INTERSTATE 10-12
THIS MORNING WITH DEW POINTS GENERALLY IN THE 60S TO THE NORTH AND
LOWER 70S TO THE SOUTH. ISOLATED CONVECTION OVER THE COASTAL WATERS
APPEARS TO BE GETTING ENHANCED BY THE SHORTWAVE...BUT MOST SHOULD
REMAIN OFFSHORE THROUGH SUNRISE. TEMPERATURES AT 08Z RANGE FROM 69
AT MCCOMB TO 78 AT BOOTHVILLE AND 81 AT NEW ORLEANS LAKEFRONT AIRPORT.
&&

.SHORT TERM...
CURRENT SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH AREA SHOULD CLEAR OUT DEEP
MOISTURE THIS MORNING...WITH BEST RESIDUAL MOISTURE OVER
SOUTHSHORE AREAS WHERE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED DIURNAL CONVECTION IS
POSSIBLE. UPSTREAM...MODELS NOT HANDLING IMPULSE OVER KANSAS WELL
AT ALL. GFS DOES AT LEAST HAVE A HINT OF AN IMPULSE...BUT NOT VERY
ACCURATE ON LOCATION OR TIMING. UPPER FLOW INDICATES THAT THIS
MAX SHOULD DROP SOUTHWARD INTO TEXAS...AND NOT DIRECTLY AFFECT THE
AREA...BUT THIS LEAVES ME OF 00Z NAM SOLUTION. ALSO
RATHER APPARENT THAT SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...GFS DEALING WITH
FEEDBACK ISSUES. SO NEITHER OF THE U.S. SHORT RANGE 00Z RUNS ARE
COMPLETELY USABLE. WILL SLIGHTLY UNDERCUT MAV/MET POP GUIDANCE FOR
BOTH SUNDAY AND MONDAY...AND TREND TOWARD THE WARMER TEMPERATURE
GUIDANCE. 35
&&

.LONG TERM...
CONCERN FOR THE MIDDLE AND END OF THE WEEK WILL BE THE POTENTIAL
FOR HEAVY RAIN NEAR OR NORTH OF THE CWA AS EASTERN TROF ALLOWS A
FRONT TO HANG UP NEAR THE AREA. DUE TO DIFFERENCES IN MODEL
SOLUTIONS...A LITTLE TOO EARLY TO PINPOINT A DAY FOR THE BETST
THREAT OF HEAVY RAINFALL. BOTH ECMWF AND GFS ARE PAINTING AN AREA
OF VERY HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS PORTIONS OF ARKANSAS AND NORTHERN
LOUISIANA IN THE WEDNESDAY TO FRIDAY TIME FRAME. AT THIS
POINT...WILL NOT MAKE SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO GOING FORECAST AND
AWAIT A LITTLE MORE CONSISTENCY IN TIMING FOR AN ACCURATE
SOLUTION. 35
&&

.AVIATION...
MOST SHOWER ACTIVITY REMAINS OFFSHORE EARLY THIS MORNING SOUTH OF A
NEARLY DISCERNIBLE FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED ALONG A BTR TO GPT LINE.
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP FARTHER NORTH IN THE
AFTERNOON HRS WITH MSY AND GPT POTENTIALLY BEING IMPACTED. NO TEMPO
GROUPS FOR TSRA ADDED JUST YET BUT MAY BE NEEDED WITH NEXT TAF
ISSUANCE. BTR AND MCB SHOULD ONLY SEE PASSING HIGH CLOUDS TODAY.
CALM WINDS WILL BE COME SOUTHERLY AT 5 TO 10 KTS. VFR WILL DOMINATE
THROUGH THE PERIOD.
MEFFER
&&

.MARINE...
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY DEVELOP AND TRACK
EASTWARD ALONG LA COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT IN
SOUTHERN LA. LIGHTNING STRIKES HAVE INCREASED CONSIDERABLY WITHIN
THE LAST COUPLE HRS. THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO THE
AFTERNOON WITH A FEW STORMS BECOMING STRONGER THAN CURRENT. LOOKS TO
BE POSSIBLE FOR A STORM OR TWO TO REACH SMW INTENSITY BUT MOST
SHOULD BE IN THE MWS RANGE. ASIDE FROM GUSTY WINDS AND INCREASING
SEAS NEAR STORMS...SRLY WINDS 5 TO 10 KTS AND SEAS 2 FT OR LESS WILL
BE NORM THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. SFC RIDGE WILL BECOME BETTER
ESTABLISHED IN THE NRN GULF EARLY IN THE WEEK AND CONTINUED RIDGING
WITH THE BERMUDA HIGH STRENGTHENING. TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL RESULT IN A SLIGHT INCREASE IN WIND SPEEDS AND SEAS BY MIDWEEK.
MEFFER


New Orleans Local Weather thread - ROLLTIDE - 07-25-2009 01:38 PM

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
136 PM CDT SAT JUL 25 2009

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NEW ORLEANS HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
CENTRAL ST. BERNARD PARISH IN SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA...

* UNTIL 200 PM CDT

* AT 132 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A WATERSPOUT OR TORNADO
OVER THE ST. BERNARD PARISH MARSHES NEAR HOPEDALE HIGHWAY...OR 6
MILES SOUTH OF SHELL BEACH...MOVING WEST AT 10 MPH.

* THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...
HIGHWAY 624 NEAR HOPEDALE LAGOON AT 150 PM CDT

LAT...LON 2984 8970 2984 8959 2979 8957 2974 8967
TIME...MOT...LOC 1834Z 078DEG 8KT 2980 8963

$$


24/RR


New Orleans Local Weather thread - dkmac - 07-26-2009 06:55 AM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTION FOR TYPO
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
425 AM CDT SUN JUL 26 2009

...MORE ACTIVE PATTERN TO RETURN...

.SHORT TERM...OVERALL IT WAS A QUIET NIGHT. ISLTD SHRA WERE
BEGINNING TO DEVELOP OVER THE GULF WATERS WHILE A MCS WAS DEVELOPING
N OF MEG ALONG A BNDRY WHICH WILL APPROACH THE AREA TODAY. IT IS
THIS MCS AND BNDRY WHICH COULD HELP SCT SHRA AND TSRA RETURN TO NRN
PORTIONS OF THE CWA AS EARLY AS THIS AFTN AND OVERNIGHT.

TODAY WILL BEGIN MOSTLY CLEAR ACROSS THE SERN HALF OF THE CWA WHILE
PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL ENCOMPASS THE WRN HALF. CIRRUS
MAY BE HARD TO GET RID OF ACROSS THE NW AS THE NOSE OF THE UPPER JET
CONTINUES TO WORK INTO CNTRL/SRN LA. NRLY FLOW WILL ALSO HELP TO
DRIVE THE BNDRY TWRDS THE REGION LATER TODAY. MOISTURE WILL POOL
AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND AS LL CONVERGENCE INCREASES AND WE HEAT
UP...ISLTD TO SCT CONVECTION SHOULD BE ABLE TO DEVELOP MAINLY ACROSS
THE N/NW. AS WE HEAD INTO THE EVN AND OVERNIGHT HRS THE REMNANTS OF
THE MCS THAT DEVELOPED OVERNIGHT WILL LIKELY RE-INTENSIFY/REDEVELOP
ALONG THE BNDRY IN CNTRL MS THANKS TO ANOTHER WEAK DISTURBANCE AND
VERY GOOD THETA E ADV AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THIS SHOULD ALLOW THE MCS
TO PROPAGATE SWRD INTO OUR NRN/NERN ZONES. WITH BOTH THE BNDRY AND
INCREASE IN MOISTURE ALONG WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF AN MCS
APPROACHING THE AREA TONIGHT I HAVE GONE ABV GUI POPS ACROSS MUCH OF
THE AREA BUT MAINLY IN THE N.

TOMORROW THROUGH TUE. THE BNDRY WILL STALL OVER THE REGION AND
MOISTURE WILL BECOME QUITE ABUNDANT. THE BNDRY WILL ACT AS A FOCUS
FOR CONVECTION MON WHILE PRETTY DEEP SRLY/SWRLY FLOW ON TUE SHOULD
HELP GET THE SEABREEZE PRETTY ACTIVE. IN ADDITION TO THE BNDRY ON
MON WE WILL STILL BE IN WEAK NW FLOW AND THIS SHOULD SEND AN IMPULSE
OR TWO ACROSS THE AREA WHICH WILL DEFINITELY AID IN CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT. ON TUE THE L/W TROUGH AXIS WILL ACTUALLY TRY TO SET UP
JUST TO OUR WEST WHICH WILL BRING WEAK SW FLOW AND REALLY TRY TO
HELP INCREASE THE MOISTURE. WITH PWS APPROACHING 2.25"...K INDEX
VALUES AROUND 34-36C AND H85 THETA E NEAR 340K SHRA AND TSRA WILL
LIKELY BE VERY EFFICIENT RAIN PRODUCERS. FCST SNDGS IN A FEW
LOCATIONS SHOW ALMOST A COMPLETELY SATURATED COLUMN AND WITH
SHOWALTERS ONLY AROUND 0C I WILL GO MAINLY WITH SHRA AND EMBEDDED
ISLTD TO SCT TSRA.

.LONG TERM...THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FCST LOOKS TO REMAIN MOSTLY
ACTIVE WITH RAIN CHANCES EACH DAY. THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN RATHER
GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE PATTERN AND WITH THAT I WILL JUST STICK
CLOSELY TO THE GFS/MEX.

WED THROUGH FRI...THE L/W TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER MUCH OF THE CONUS
WITH THE BERMUDA RIDGE BUILDING WWRD INTO THE GULF. THE L/W TROUGH
AXIS(ALTHOUGH NOT A SHARP TROUGH AXIS) WILL REMAIN JUST OFF TO OUR
WEST AND THIS ALONG THE THE WWRD EXPANSION OF THE BERMUDA RIDGE WILL
KEEP THE MID LVL FLOW OUT OF THE W/SW. A COUPLE OF SFC WAVES WILL
DEVELOP IN THE SRN PLAINS AND TRACK THROUGH THE MID/LOWER MS VALLEYS
AND TWRDS THE OHIO/TN VALLEYS. THESE WAVES WILL TRACK ACROSS A BNDRY
THAT WILL SLOWLY WORK SOUTH ACROSS THE ARKLATEX AND INTO NRN MS
WHICH WILL LEAD TO HEAVY RAIN AT TIMES NORTH OF OUR AREA. THIS COULD
LEAD TO SOME RIVER ISSUES FOR US DOWN THE ROAD ESPECIALLY IF WE END
UP GETTING SOME DECENT RAIN ACROSS OUR AREA. OUR BNDRY WILL
BASICALLY WASH OUT WITH DEEP SW TO SRLY FLOW IN PLACE. THIS SHOULD
ALLOW THE SEABREEZE TO BE ACTIVE EACH DAY LEADING TO CLIMO AND
SLIGHTLY ABV CLIMO RAIN CHANCES.

HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND NOT TOO MUCH WILL CHANGE. THE POLAR VORTEX
WILL REMAIN OVER MANITOBA/ONTARIO WITH THE L/W TROUGH STILL OVER
MUCH OF THE CONUS. THE TROUGH AXIS WILL TRY TO WORK EWRD AS A WRN
CONUS RIDGE APPEARS TO REBUILD. THIS SHOULD STILL LEAD TO CLIMO RAIN
CHANCES(30-40%) AND TEMPS RIGHT AROUND NORMAL. /CAB/

&&

.AVIATION...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED. AS MOISTURE INCREASES...ISOLATED
CONVECTION EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON...MAINLY NEAR SEABREEZE
BOUNDARIES...KMSY OR KGPT...BUT CHANCES NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO CARRY IN
TERMINALS AT THIS POINT. A LITTLE BETTER POTENTIAL DURING THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD. WILL LOOK AT 06Z MODEL DATA BEFORE DECIDING
WHETHER TO INCLUDE IN THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD FOR 12Z TAF PACKAGE. FOG
HAS NOT BEEN OCCURRING OVER THE LAST FEW NIGHTS AND SEE NO
SIGNIFICANT REASON FOR IT TO DEVELOP THIS MORNING. 35

&&

.MARINE...
THE BERMUDA HIGH IS EXPECTED TO BUILD WESTWARD OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS...RESULTING IN A CONTINUATION OF ONSHORE FLOW. WINDS WILL
REMAIN 10 KNOTS OR LESS WITH SEAS OF 2 FEET OR LESS THROUGH THE
FIRST PART OF THE WEEK. AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS TOWARD THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...WINDS AND SEAS WILL RESPOND ACCORDINGLY.
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW HEADLINE CRITERIA. 35