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New Orleans Local Weather thread - dkmac - 07-14-2009 05:40 AM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
427 AM CDT TUE JUL 14 2009

.SHORT TERM...
CLUSTERS OF THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP IN COASTAL WATERS
SOUTH OF PQL TO BVE. INSTABILITY REMAINS ELEVATED WITH LI/S AROUND
-7C AND SBCAPE OVER 4K J/KG. MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY DEVELOPED ALONG A
RESIDUAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM EARLIER STORMS OVER LAND. A
SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH IS PROVIDING THE MAIN FOCUS FOR
DEVELOPMENT. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD CONTINUE TO REDEVELOP THROUGH THE
MORNING.

HAVE INCREASED POPS TO LIKELY FOR AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER. AN IMPULSE CURRENTLY SEEN ON SATELLITE MOVING
SOUTHEAST THROUGH ARKANSAS WILL CONTINUE TOWARDS THE CWA TODAY. MOST
OF THE CONVECTION SHOULD BEGIN TO DEVELOP AFTER NOON AND INCREASE IN
COVERAGE AS TIME PASSES. MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE A DRY LAYER AROUND
400MB WHICH COULD LEAD TO SOME STORMS PRODUCING GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS.
MODERATE RAINFALL WITH OCCASIONAL HEAVY DOWNPOURS CAN BE EXPECTED.
CLOUDCOVER AND RAIN SHOULD HINDER HIGH TEMPS FROM WHAT LOW LEVEL
TEMPS SHOW. HAVE UNDERCUT GUIDANCE BY QUITE A FEW DEGREES WITH LOW
90S ACROSS THE CWA.

.LONG TERM...
WEDNESDAY LOOKS TO BE MORE LIKE A TYPICAL SUMMER TIME TSRM DAY BUT
WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER COVERAGE. ABUNDANT MOISTURE WILL PERSIST WHICH
WILL AIDE IN CONVECTION DEVELOPMENT. HAVE POP GRADIENT ORIENTED W TO
E BASED ON EXPECTED SEA BREEZE NORTHWARD EXTEND. SO...COULD HAVE A
SLIGHTLY FARTHER NORTH OR SOUTH LINE OF HIGHER COVERAGE. TEMPS TO
CONTINUE RIGHT AT OR JUST ABOVE CLIMO.

UPPER TROUGH IN CANADA WILL BEGIN DIGGING SOUTHWARD INTO THE HIGH
CENTRAL PLAINS WED AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE SOUTHEASTWARD AS THE UPPER
RIDGE CURRENTLY OVER THE AREA SLIDES BACK WESTWARD. STILL A SLIGHT
DIFFERENCE IN FRONTAL TIMING BETWEEN MODELS BUT STILL SATISFIED WITH
OVERALL AGREEMENT. WIDESPREAD DEVELOPMENT SHOULD OCCUR ACROSS THE
AREA FRIDAY AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY WHICH SHOULD BE MOVING THROUGH
CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI BY THE LATE AFTERNOON TO EVENING HRS. MODELS
STILL BRING THE FRONT INTO THE NORTHERN GULF BY SUNDAY MORNING. FROM
THIS TIME THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST...SHWR AND TSTM
DEVELOPMENT SHOULD BE MORESO TOWARDS THE COAST BUT STILL WITH SOME
ACTIVITY AS FAR NORTH AS MCB. TEMPS WILL REMAIN ON THE RELATIVELY
COOL SIDE THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH HIGHS NEAR 90 TO THE UPPER 80S
AND LOWS APPROACHING THE UPPER 60S.

MEFFER
&&

.AVIATION...
TIMING OF SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHRA/TSRA WILL BE THE MAIN FORECAST
PROBLEM TODAY. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL EARLY THIS MORNING EXCEPT
FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR VSBYS AT KMCB. BRIEF MVFR CIGS WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH CUMULUS DEVELOP EARLY TO MID MORNING...THEN VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OUTSIDE OF THE HEAVIER CORES OF SHRA/TSRA
FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH EVENING TODAY. WITH THE HIGHER RAIN CHANCE
TODAY...WILL CARRY TEMPO TSRA GROUPS FOR A FEW HOURS THIS AFTERNOON.
A FEW OF THE STRONGER TSRA COULD AGAIN PRODUCE WIND GUSTS IN THE 30
TO 40 KNOTS RANGE MAINLY THIS AFTERNOON.

22/TD
&&

.MARINE...
A COMPLICATED PRESSURE PATTERN WILL CAUSE VARIABLE WIND
DIRECTIONS...STARTING WEST TO NORTHWEST THIS MORNING...THEN BECOMING
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST TONIGHT. SPEEDS MAY OCCASIONALLY REACH 10 TO 15
KNOTS...BUT WILL GENERALLY BE 10 KNOTS OR LESS. A LARGE AND LONG
TRACKING STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WITH CONTINUOUS LIGHTNING UP
TO ONE STRIKE PER SECOND...CYCLONIC ROTATION...AND STRONG ELEVATED
CORES MOVED ACROSS THE WATERS FROM CHANDELEUR SOUND TO BRETON SOUND
EARLIER...AND HAS SINCE WEAKENED AS IT CROSSED LOWER PLAQUEMINES
PARISH TOWARDS THE WATERS WEST OF SOUTHWEST PASS. MARINERS SHOULD BE
ADVISED THAT ADDITIONAL ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS COULD
DEVELOP OVER PORTIONS OF THE COASTAL WATERS THE NEXT COUPLE
DAYS/NIGHTS. NOT MUCH SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
WEEK. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAY SHIFT WINDS AGAIN THIS WEEKEND.


New Orleans Local Weather thread - dkmac - 07-15-2009 05:19 AM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
402 AM CDT WED JUL 15 2009

.SHORT TERM...
ANOTHER DAY OF AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS IS IN STORE FOR SOUTHEAST LA
AND SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI. THE COLUMN REMAINS QUITE SATURATED PER
RECENT SOUNDINGS WITH PWATS NEAR 2 INCHES AND NO CHANGE IS EXPECTED
TODAY. MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATED THE DRY LAYER AROUND 500MB THAT/S
BEEN THE CAUSE OF MANY STORMS PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS WILL FADE AWAY
TODAY. THIS WILL ONLY HINDER THE POTENTIAL FOR DOWNBURSTS RATHER
THAN HAVE ANY AFFECT ON COVERAGE. STILL HAVE INSTABILITY AND PLENTY
OF MOISTURE SO AFTERNOON CONVECTION INITIATION SHOULDN/T BE AN
ISSUE. WENT ON THE SLIGHTLY CONSERVATIVE SIDE ON POPS B/C OF THE
LACK OF ANY SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVE EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH.
REGARDLESS...SCATTERED STORMS SHOULD DEVELOP. MAX TEMPS SHOULD BE
SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY WITH LOWER 90S DOMINATING. SOME ACTIVITY COULD
PERSIST THROUGH THE NIGHT DUE TO IMPULSE MOVING WWD ACROSS THE
COAST OF LA. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD BE MOSTLY CONFINED TO AREAS SOUTH
AND WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CONUS FROM THE WEST
WILL BEGIN BREAKING DOWN ON THURSDAY. THIS ALONG WITH A LITTLE MORE
INSTABILITY WILL ALLOW FOR MORE WIDESPREAD TSTRM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS
THE AREA. AROUND 50 POPS AND LOWER HEIGHTS SHOULD KEEP HIGHS AROUND
NORMAL TEMPS FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR.

.LONG TERM...
NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THE EXPECTED EVOLUTION OF THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. STRENGTHENING TROUGH WILL PLUNGE INTO THE SERN
US AND SEND A FRONTAL BOUNDARY TOWARDS THE AREA. NUMEROUS
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP AHEAD OF THIS FRONT FRIDAY AND AGAIN
SATURDAY AS THE BOUNDARY SAGS TO BASICALLY ON TOP OF THE FA SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. MODERATE TO OCCASIONALLY HEAVY RAINFALL CAN BE EXPECTED
WITH GOOD TSTRM RAIN EFFICIENCY.

INTO NEXT WEEK...MODELS NOW INDICATING THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
SHARPEN AND CONTINUE TO DIG SOUTHWARD. THIS IS QUITE A BIT DEEPER
THAN WHAT THEY WERE SHOWING 24 HRS AGO. THIS WILL HEAVILY PLAY INTO
HOW FOR THE COLD FRONT PUSHES INTO THE GULF. WOULD/T SAY THIS IS
RARE...BUT NOT TOO COMMON FOR MID JULY. SH/TS WILL THEN BE SITUATED
FROM COASTAL PARISHES AND SOUTHWARD. MEANWHILE...AREAS TO THE NORTH
WILL BE ABLE TO WARM INTO POSSIBLY THE LOWER 90S BUT WILL BE
SOMEWHAT LIMITED BY HTS.

MEFFER
&&

.AVIATION...
GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH WEDNESDAY...ALTHOUGH
CONVECTION MAY DEVELOP IN VICINITY OF TERMINALS. ACTIVITY MORE
LIKELY DURING AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS...PARTICULARLY
AROUND KMCB. IN THUNDERSTORMS...CIGS AND VISIBILITIES MAY BRIEFLY
BE REDUCED TO MVFR LEVELS. LATER EXPECT MVFR VISIBILITIES IN
FOG...AGAIN PRIMARILY AROUND KMCB EARLY THIS MORNING AND OVERNIGHT
AND INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...
ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER COASTAL WATER WILL DISSIPATE LATER THIS
MORNING. HOWEVER...NEW CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP THROUGH DAY NEAR
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES THAT PERSIST AS REMNANTS FROM THUNDERSTORMS ON
TUESDAY. SFC WINDS WILL BE MOSTLY LIGHT AND VRB...BUT BECOMING MORE
NW DURING THE MORNING. BY AFTERNOON...WINDS WILL BECOME MORE SOUTH
TO SOUTHEAST THOUGH SPEEDS WILL BE GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 KTS TODAY.
WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHWEST TO WEST ON THURSDAY...AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF. WIND SPEEDS WILL INCREASE AND
BECOME 10 TO 15 KTS. MODELS CONTINUE TO BRING A WEAK FRONT TOWARD
COAST BY FRIDAY NIGHT. AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES ACROSS THE
TIDAL LAKES AND COASTAL WATERS...WINDS AND SEAS WILL APPROACH THE
EXERCISE CAUTION CRITERIA. CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP THROUGHOUT THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIODS...AS BOUNDARY PUSHES TO COAST AND
LINGERS THROUGH SUNDAY.


New Orleans Local Weather thread - Southernbelle - 07-15-2009 06:07 AM

Is it true we might have a 'cold' front move in at the beginning of the week?


New Orleans Local Weather thread - ROLLTIDE - 07-15-2009 06:12 AM

SKYWARN PROGRAM New Orleans/Baton Rouge National Weather Service Office


[INDENT]
[Image: skywarnc.gif] SKYWARN is a voluntary program developed by the National Weather Service where volunteers serve as storm spotters for the National Weather Service and local emergency management programs. Keeping their eyes on the sky, volunteers serve as the eyes and ears for the whole community. Storm spotters come from all walks of life but they all have generally two things in common - an interest in the weather and an interest in serving their community. The goal of SKYWARN is to improve the warning program by delivering timely severe weather warnings.
SKYWARN is a loosely knit organization. Training in severe storm identification comes from the National Weather Service. Often, another organization, such as emergency management, law enforcement, fire departments or rescue squads, or amateur radio groups, is the backbone of the SKYWARN effort in a particular community.

The National Weather Service needs real time reports of hail size, wind damage, flash flooding, heavy rain, and tornado development, in order to effectively warn the public. Even as new technology allows the National Weather Service to issue warnings with more lead time, spotters will always be needed as links between radar indications of severe weather and ground truth information.
If you are interested in becoming a Severe Storm Spotter and want to receive SkyWarn training, contact your local parish/county emergency management office or contact our Warning Coordination Meteorologist, at the National Weather Service Office in Slidell at 985-649-0357.
[/INDENT]
SkyWarn Page Links

Amateur Radio Information


New Orleans Local Weather thread - dkmac - 07-15-2009 07:10 PM

southernbelle Wrote:Is it true we might have a 'cold' front move in at the beginning of the week?

Sat thru Tues for the Northshore:

Quote:Saturday: Showers and thunderstorms likely, mainly after 1pm. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 87. Chance of precipitation is 60%.

Saturday Night: Scattered showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 65. Chance of precipitation is 40%.

Sunday: Isolated showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 88.

Sunday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 69.

Monday: Isolated showers and thunderstorms. Partly cloudy, with a high near 89.

Monday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 68.

Tuesday: Isolated showers and thunderstorms. Partly cloudy, with a high near 91.

Tuesday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 68.

Wednesday: Isolated showers and thunderstorms. Partly cloudy, with a high near 92.



New Orleans Local Weather thread - dkmac - 07-16-2009 04:46 AM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
403 AM CDT THU JUL 16 2009

.SHORT TERM...
REMNANTS OF WEAK MCV AND SHORTWAVE THAT FIRED OFF SHOWERS WED
REMAINS JUST TO THE WEST OF THE CWA. THIS VORT MAX WILL STRETCH SW
TO NE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. UPPER AIR SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO
INDICATE A VERY MOIST COLUMN IN PLACE SO MOISTURE WON/T BE AN ISSUE.
CAPE VALUES ARE STILL HIGH AT AROUND 4K J/KG NEAR INITIATION. LCH
RADAR SHOWS SHOWERS BEGINNING TO DEVELOP OFFSHORE. SHWRS WILL LIKELY
BEGIN TO DEVELOP LATER THIS MORNING ALONG SW COASTAL PARISHES AND
EXPAND NEWD. WENT ON THE HIGH SIDE OF GUIDANCE FOR POPS WITH LIKELY
CATEGORY. DON/T REALLY SEE ANYTHING ON FORECAST SOUNDINGS TO SUGGEST
MANY SVR STORMS. THE VERTICAL WIND PROFILE WILL BE QUITE WEAK. BUT
WITH STRONG INSTABILITY EXISTING...A FEW MARGINALLY SVR OR MORESO
STRONG WILL BE POSSIBLE. SHOULD STILL BE A FEW SH/TS LINGERING
ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT. THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE QUITE WEAK AND
ISOLATED IN NATURE.

TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE VERY DEPENDANT ON TIMING OF DEVELOPMENT.
NERN AREAS SHOULD SEE DEVELOPMENT A LITTLE LATER WHICH WILL ALLOW
FOR MORE WARMING. STORMS COULD IMPACT SOME LOCATIONS EARLIER IN THE
DAY...KEEPING TEMPS IN CHECK. THEREFORE...FORECAST HIGHS COULD BE ON
THE SLIGHTLY GENEROUS SIDE.

.LONG TERM...
LATEST WV IMAGERY CLEARLY SHOWS DEEP UPPER LOW SPINNING ACROSS SOUTH
CENTRAL CANADA TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES. IN GENERAL...MODELS SEEM TO
BE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE EVOLUTION OF THE UPPER LEVEL
PATTERN AND ESPECIALLY THIS FEATURE AT LEAST UNTIL EARLY TO MID NEXT
WEEK. THE UPPER LOW WILL TRACK TOWARDS THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. THE
ASSOCIATED TROUGH WILL DIG SOUTHWARD AND STILL SEND A COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE REGION. COLD FRONT SHOULD BE INTO NORTHERN LA BY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE CWA
DURING THE AFTERNOON HRS. MAY NEED TO INCREASE POPS FROM THE CURRENT
LOW 60PCT RANGE. HIGHS WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH THE UPPER 80S. SHOWERS
SHOULD CONTINUE FRIDAY NIGHT BUT MORE SPARSELY THAN DAYTIME. SIMILAR
CONDITIONS AGAIN FOR SATURDAY BUT WITH THE HEAVIER RAIN SHIFTED
SLIGHTLY SOUTHWARD AS THE BOUNDARY SLOWLY SAGS SOUTHWARD THRU THE
FA. THE COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY CONTINUE INTO THE NORTHERN GULF SAT
NIGHT AND SUNDAY. SOUTHERN CWA AREAS WILL STILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL
TO SEE SOME STORMS ON SUNDAY.

DRIER AND COOLER AIR WILL FILTER IN TO THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA
SUNDAY AND MONDAY. ATTM...HIGHS LOOK TO BE ONLY SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL WITH UPPER 80S EXPECTED. LOWS ON THE OTHER HAND...COULD DIP
DOWN IN TO THE LOWER TO MID 60S AS THE DRY AIR MOVES IN. BY
TUESDAY...WARM MOIST AIR WILL REBOUND NORTHWARD FROM THE GULF AND IT
WILL BE SUMMERTIME BUSINESS AS USUAL.

MEFFER
&&

.AVIATION...
GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TODAY...OUTSIDE OF ANY
CONVECTION THAT MIGHT DEVELOP AND IMPACT THE TAF SITES PRIMARILY
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS TODAY AND THURSDAY. IN ADDITION....THERE
MAY BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR VISIBILITIES DUE TO LIGHT FOG AT KMCB
LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...
EARLIER TRENDS PERSIST WITH THIS RUN OF MODELS. DEEP MOISTURE WITH
PW VALUES HOVERING AROUND 2.0 INCHES WILL FOSTER THE DEVELOPMENT OF
CONVECTION OVER THE COASTAL WATERS JUST AS SEEN WEDNESDAY AND
ALREADY THIS MORNING. THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH WEEKEND.
WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AREA WILL REMAIN OVER THE EAST GULF. THUS
SOUTHWEST TO WEST FLOW WILL PERSIST OVER THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH
EARLY SATURDAY. AS AN UPPER TROUGH BECOMES SHARPER OVER THE OHIO
RIVER VALLEY...A SURFACE FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH TO THE COASTAL WATERS
BY SUNDAY. THE SURFACE FRONT IN BETWEEN THE TROUGH AND RIDGE AXES IS
FORECAST TO HANG UP ALONG THE GULF COAST. AS A RESULT...THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN OVER THE COASTAL WATERS AND WILL PUSH WINDS TO
NEAR SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION CRITERIA.


New Orleans Local Weather thread - ROLLTIDE - 07-17-2009 06:06 AM

FXUS64 KLIX 170838
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
338 AM CDT FRI JUL 17 2009

.SHORT TERM...

IN THE IMMEDIATE TERM...THE REMNANTS OF A STRONG CONVECTIVE
COMPLEX HAVE MOVED INTO THE FLORIDA PARISHES EARLY THIS MORNING.
THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS MOVING SOUTH AT A SLOW CLIP...AS
CONVECTION DEVELOPS ALONG THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY. THIS CONVECTION
SHOULD CONTINUE FOR A FEW MORE HOURS BEFORE DIMINISHING AROUND
DAYBREAK. EXPECT RAINFALL TO MAKE IT ALL THE WAY DOWN TO THE I-12
CORRIDOR IN TANGIPAHOA AND ST TAMMANY PARISHES BY DAYBREAK. AFTER
REVIEWING ONE HOUR POPS...LOOKS LIKE A GOOD HALF INCH OF RAIN MAY
BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS CONVECTIVE COMPLEX.

GOING INTO THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY...EXPECT PLENTY OF CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT THROUGH THE DAY. A BROAD AREA OF LIFT THROUGHOUT THE
ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN IN ADVANCE OF A DIGGING TROUGH INTO THE EASTERN
THIRD OF THE NATION WILL KEEP THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT GOING
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. IN THE LOW LEVELS...SEVERAL
BOUNDARIES WILL SERVE AS FOCUSING MECHANISMS...WITH THE MAIN FOCUS
BEING ALONG THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM THE CURRENTLY ONGOING
CONVECTION. IT APPEARS THE BOUNDARY WILL STALL ALONG THE I-10/12
CORRIDOR THIS MORNING AND REMAIN THERE INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. A
BAND OF THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP ALONG THIS OUTFLOW BY LATE
MORNING AND TRACK ACROSS THE AREA INTO THE AFTERNOON. PW VALUES
ARE ABOVE 2 INCHES...SO ANY THUNDERSTORM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO
PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL. IN ADDITION...SOME COOLER AIR WILL WORK IN
THIS AFTERNOON...AS THE TROUGH AXIS SWINGS THROUGH. THIS WILL
ALLOW FOR SOMEWHAT STEEPER LAPSE RATES...WHICH IN TURN COULD
SUPPORT ISOLATED STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. WET
MICROBURSTS AND HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS FROM THESE
THUNDERSTORMS...ALONG WITH HEAVY RAINFALL. DUE TO THE CLOUD COVER
AND RAINFALL IN THE REGION...DAYTIME HIGHS SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL TODAY.

A COLD FRONT WILL THEN SWEEP INTO THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. THE
FRONT WILL SLOWLY SAG SOUTH TO THE COASTAL PARISHES BY SATURDAY
NIGHT. WITH THIS SLOW FRONTAL MOVEMENT THROUGH THE REGION...EXPECT
CONTINUED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW. THE
OVERALL AIRMASS WILL BE DRYING OUT IN THE MID-LEVELS...BUT THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE TO EXIST INTO
SATURDAY. IN ADDITION...A FAST MOVING SECONDARY IMPULSE LOOKS LIKE
IT WILL SLIDE INTO THE REGION ON SATURDAY. THIS WILL PROVIDE
ENHANCED LIFT...WHICH ALSO WILL SUPPORT ADDITIONAL CONVECTION.
HAVE KEPT CHANCE POPS IN FOR SATURDAY TO REFLECT THIS THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT. THE GOOD NEWS IS THAT THE SECONDARY IMPULSE WILL
PROVIDE THE NECESSARY KICK TO FINALLY PUSH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
OFFSHORE. EXPECT A MUCH DRIER SCENARIO TO DEVELOP ON SUNDAY...AS
STRONG DRY AIR ADVECTION IN THE MID-UPPER LEVELS TAKES HOLD.
HOWEVER...WITH THE FRONT JUST OFFSHORE...CANNOT RULE OUT THE
POTENTIAL FOR AN ISOLATED SHOWER TO FORM MAINLY TO THE SOUTH OF
I-10. HAVE KEPT IN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR SUNDAY..EXCEPT AREAS
NORTH OF I-10. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN COOL...AS STRONG COLD AIR
ADVECTION TAKES HOLD. THE COOL DOWN WILL BE MOST NOTICABLE AT
NIGHT...WITH READINGS A GOOD 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

.LONG TERM...

HEADING INTO THE WORKWEEK...THE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE
THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE NATION. COOL AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL BE
THE RULE MONDAY AND TUESDAY...WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
CONVECTION ALONG THE COAST EXPECTED. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL REMAIN A
GOOD 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL...WITH LOWS DIPPING INTO THE
LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S OVER SOUTHWEST MISSISSIPPI AND THE FLORIDA
PARISHES. IT WILL ALMOST FEEL LIKE SPRING OUT THERE FOR A COUPLE
OF DAYS. HOWEVER...THERE ARE SOME MODEL DISAGREEMENTS GOING INTO
THE MIDDLE AND LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK. THE GFS HAS BEEN VERY
CONSISTENT IN DEVELOPING A CUT OFF LOW AT THE BASE OF THE LONG
WAVE TROUGH OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO. THE COLD CORE UPPER LEVEL
SYSTEM IS PROGGED TO THEN SHIFT TO THE WEST INTO TEXAS BY THE
WEEKEND. HOWEVER...THE LATEST RUN OF THE ECMWF DOES NOT SHOW THIS
SCENARIO DEVELOPING. RATHER IT KEEPS A DEEPER AND STRONGER TROUGH
OVER THE EASTERN SEABOARD THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. IN
FACT...THE MODELS ARE COMPLETELY OPPOSED BY THURSDAY WITH THE GFS
SHOWING A BERMUDA HIGH BUILDING IN AT THE SAME TIME THE ECMWF IS
SHOWING A TROUGH. AFTER CAREFUL CONSIDERATION OF MODEL
TRENDS...THE GFS HAS BEEN MUCH MORE CONSISTENT ON RUN TO RUN
BASIS...AND HAVE WENT WITH A FORECAST CLOSER TO THIS SOLUTION.

WITH THIS IN MIND...EXPECT A GRADUAL INCREASE IN GULF MOISTURE
WEDNESDAY...WITH A RETURN TO FULL BLOWN SUMMER HEAT AND HUMIDITY
BY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THIS RETURN TO SUMMER WILL BE DRIVEN BY
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW PULLING TO THE WEST...AND OPENING UP DEEP
SOUTHERLY FLOW TO THE REGION. HAVE WENT WITH CHANCE POPS THE
LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK TO REFLECT THIS MORE TYPICAL JULY PATTERN.

&&


New Orleans Local Weather thread - ROLLTIDE - 07-17-2009 03:36 PM

Short Term Forecast

SHORT TERM FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
324 PM CDT FRI JUL 17 2009

LAZ062-172209-
ORLEANS-
INCLUDING THE CITY OF...NEW ORLEANS
324 PM CDT FRI JUL 17 2009

.NOW...
AT 3 PM A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED OVER NEW ORLEANS LAKEFRONT
AIRPORT. THIS STORM WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST OVER THE NEXT HOUR.
THIS STORM IS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 40
MILES...DANGEROUS LIGHTNING...AS WELL AS LOCALLY UP TO 2 INCHES OF
RAINFALL.

$$


New Orleans Local Weather thread - dkmac - 07-18-2009 05:08 AM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
339 AM CDT SAT JUL 18 2009

.SHORT TERM...
A COOL FRONT EXTENDS FROM ARLATEX THROUGH CENTRAL MS EARLY THIS
MORNING WHERE TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS ARE IN THE 60S. AHEAD OF
THE FRONT...WARM HUMID UNSTABLE AIR REMAINS IN PLACE. AN AREA OF
THUNDERSTORMS HAS DEVELOPED OFF THE SOUTHEAST LA COAST AS A WEAK
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHES THE AREA FROM THE WEST. THE GFS
MODEL HAS THIS FEATURE MOVING RAPIDLY THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA
THIS MORNING. BEST CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NEAR THE COAST
TODAY AS THE COOL FRONT MOVES DOWN TO THE COAST AND BECOMES
STATIONARY OVERNIGHT.

.LONG TERM...
THE DRIER...COOLER AIR WILL PROBABLY GO NO FURTHER SOUTH THAN THE
SOUTHWEST PART OF MS WHICH SHOULD SEE TEMPERATURES FALL INTO THE
LOWER 60S TONIGHT AND SUNDAY NIGHT. THE STATIONARY FRONT SHOULD
DISSIPATE BY MONDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES TO WESTERN GULF STATES THIS MORNING LIFTS OUT
TOWARDS THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY. THIS WILL ALLOW THE BERMUDA RIDGE
TO GRADUALLY BUILD WESTWARD INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO BY THE END OF
THE WEEK

&&

AVIATION...
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A STRATUS DECK OVER SECTIONS OF SOUTHWEST
MISSISSIPPI EARLY THIS MORNING HAS RESULTED IN LIFR CEILINGS AT
KMCB. IN ADDITION...IFR CEILINGS HAVE BEEN OBSERVED AT KMSY AT TIMES
THIS MORNING. KBTR AND KGPT CONTINUE TO REPORT VFR CONDITIONS...
HOWEVER LOWER CEILINGS MAY IMPACT THESE SITES AS WELL AT TIMES
EARLY THIS MORNING. AFTER THESE LOWER CEILINGS AND IN SOME CASES
AREAS OF FOG BURN OFF AFTER SUNRISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT
THE TAF SITES FOR THE BALANCE OF THE DAY AND TONIGHT. A WEAK COLD
FRONT WILL BE PUSHING SOUTH TOWARD THE COAST TODAY AND TONIGHT.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE COURSE
OF THE DAY...PARTICULARLY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS AND FOR THOSE
AREAS FARTHER TO THE SOUTH. THE BEST CHANCE FOR SEEING CONVECTION AT
ANY OF THE TAF SITES WILL BE AT KMSY. 11

&&

.MARINE...
GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL PUSH TOWARD
THE COAST AND COASTAL WATERS BY TONIGHT AND WILL GET HUNG UP IN THIS
AREA UNTIL EARLY IN THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK WHEN IT WILL WASH OUT
AND/OR PULL BACK TO THE NORTH. IN ADDITION TO BEING FAIRLY LIGHT
DURING THE PERIOD...THE WINDS WILL ALSO BE SOMEWHAT VARIABLE. SEAS
WILL MOSTLY BE RUNNING AROUND 2 FEET OF LESS. 11


New Orleans Local Weather thread - dkmac - 07-19-2009 06:43 AM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
355 AM CDT SUN JUL 19 2009

.SHORT TERM...
A MUCH DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIRMASS CONTINUES TO WORK INTO THE
GULF COAST REGION AND LOCAL FORECAST AREA AS AN UNSEASONABLY DEEP
UPPER TROUGH DIGS OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROUGH WAS LOCATED IN THE VICINITY OF THE
SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA COAST EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS BOUNDARY WILL
LIKELY SAG A LITTLE FARTHER TO THE SOUTH TODAY BEFORE BECOMING
QUASI STATIONARY ALONG THE COAST OR IN THE NEAR COASTAL WATERS BY
TONIGHT. THIS BOUNDARY WILL SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED CONVECTION ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS AND ADJACENT LAND
AREAS TODAY. AS THE UPPER TROUGH BEGINS TO WEAKEN AND LIFT OFF TO
THE NORTHEAST ON MONDAY...THE LINGERING SURFACE BOUNDARY NEAR THE
COAST WILL BECOME DIFFUSE AND/OR LIFT BACK TO THE NORTH RESULTING
IN A RETURN OF LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW AND A MORE HUMID AIRMASS
MORE TYPICAL OF THE SEASON. 11

.LONG TERM...
AS THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH LIFTS TO THE NORTHEAST...A MORE OR LESS
NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN ALOFT WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF
COAST REGION THROUGH THE MIDDLE AND END OF THE WORK WEEK WITH A
BROAD TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION WHICH WILL EXTEND DOWN
INTO THE SOUTHERN UNITED STATES. A FEW EMBEDDED SHORT WAVES IN
THIS NORTHWEST FLOW WILL SERVE TO HELP INITIATE CONVECTION IN AN
INCREASING MOIST ATMOSPHERE DURING THE MID AND END PART OF THE
WEEK. AN UPPER TROUGH IS FORECAST TO AMPLIFY ACROSS THE EASTERN
CONUS AGAIN NEXT WEEKEND. 11

&&

.AVIATION...
A MUCH MORE STABLE AIRMASS HAS BEGUN TO WORK INTO THE AREA TONIGHT.
HOWEVER...A WEAK BOUNDARY REMAINS IN PLACE ALONG THE LOUISIANA
COAST. THIS BOUNDARY SHOULD LINGER OVER THE AREA TOMORROW...AND
SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINALS THE MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
HOWEVER...A BRIEF PERIOD OF OF CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY MAY IMPACT KMSY
IN THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. BY LATE
AFTERNOON...EXPECT THE BOUNDARY TO PUSH FURTHER OFFSHORE...ALLOWING
FOR A MUCH DRIER AND EVEN MORE STABLE AIRMASS TO SETTLE OVER THE
SOUTH SHORE. 32

&&

.MARINE...
HEIGHT FALLS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY NIGHT...AS A
STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES TO DIG INTO THE REGION. THESE
HEIGHT FALLS...COMBINED WITH THE ASSOCIATED COLD AND DRY ADVECTION
IN THE WAKE OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY PULLING INTO THE CENTRAL GULF
COAST BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON...SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME STRONGER WINDS
SUNDAY NIGHT. AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS WINDS SHOULD REMAIN JUST
BELOW EXERCISE CAUTION CRITERIA...BUT IF THE SYSTEM IS STRONGER THAN
EXPECTED...THESE CONDITIONS COULD BE MET. WINDS WILL QUICKLY SLACK
OFF BY MONDAY AFTERNOON...AS SURFACE RIDGING BECOMES CENTERED OVER
THE REGION. THE RIDGE SHOULD THEN SHIFT TO THE EAST...ALLOWING FOR
A BROAD AREA OF SOUTHERLY FLOW TO DEVELOP TUESDAY AND REMAIN IN
PLACE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. 32