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New Orleans Local Weather thread - Southernbelle - 07-07-2009 07:52 AM

It didn't get over 85 here yesterday and it rained, rained, rained /clap1


New Orleans Local Weather thread - ROLLTIDE - 07-07-2009 08:20 AM

[Image: HWO.png]


New Orleans Local Weather thread - dkmac - 07-08-2009 05:06 AM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
244 AM CDT WED JUL 8 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
ISOLATED CONVECTION IS CURRENTLY LIMITED TO IMMEDIATE COASTLINE
AND THE GULF WATERS NEAR A VERY WEAK BOUNDARY THAT REMAINS IN
PLACE NEAR THE COAST. TEMPERATURES ARE MAINLY IN THE UPPER 70S..
EXCEPT ACROSS FAR NORTHERN ZONES WHICH ARE SLIGHTLY COOLER.
DEWPOINTS REMAIN IN IN THE LOW TO MID 70S ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA.
A MID-LEVEL SHORT-WAVE IS APPROACHING THE AREA AND COULD HELP
INCREASE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TOWARD DAYBREAK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION
TODAY...WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN ANOTHER ROUND OF SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA. WILL CARRY CHANCE POPS ACROSS
THE BOARD RANGING FROM AROUND 30 PERCENT FOR THE NORTHERN ZONES TO
50 PERCENT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ZONES AND COASTAL WATERS...WHERE A
VERY WEAK BOUNDARY MAY HELP PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR CONVECTION.

HAVE DROPPED POPS ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY TO SLIGHT CHANCE
CATEGORY. IT LOOKS LIKE THE PESKY MID-LEVEL RIDGE IS GOING TO
NUDGE EASTWARD INTO THE AREA RESULTING IN AN INVERSION AROUND 700
MB. THIS WILL LIMIT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT...WHICH WILL IN TURN
ALLOW AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES TO RISE A FEW DEGREES HIGHER THAN
PREVIOUSLY FORECAST. GENERALLY INCREASED TEMPERATURE FORECASTS BY
2 TO 3 DEGREES FOR THE TIME BEING...BUT THIS MAY NEED TO BE
ADJUSTED AGAIN DEPENDING ON HOW FAR EASTWARD THE RIDGE BUILDS AND
HOW QUICKLY IT DOES SO.

.LONG TERM...
THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE IS FORECAST TO REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE
LONG TERM...WITH THE EASTERN PERIPHERY EXTENDING INTO THE AREA.
THIS WILL CONTINUE TO RESULT IN LIMITED CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY.
DEPENDING ON JUST HOW FAR THE RIDGE BUILDS EASTWARD...A FEW
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY STILL POP UP...SO WILL CONTINUE TO
CARRY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS EACH DAY. TEMPS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN IN
THE MID 90S...WHICH IS JUST ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

&&

.AVIATION...
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF TEMPO MVFR VISBIES AT MCB THIS
MORNING...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH TOMORROW UNTIL
CONVECTION DEVELOPS AND MOVES OVER THE TAF SITES. THE NEXT ROUND OF
SHRA/TSRA SHOULD BEGIN TO GET GOING B/T 12Z AND 18Z. THIS ACTIVITY
SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST MIDDAY BEFORE DISSIPATING DURING THE
AFTN HRS AND WHAT WILL LIKELY BE ANOTHER MOSTLY QUIET EVN.

&&

.MARINE...
A VERY WEAKLY DEFINED BNDRY REMAINS JUST NORTH OF THE
COASTAL WATERS WHILE HIGH PRESSURE IS PUSHING IN ACROSS THE ERN
GULF. THIS WILL KEEP WINDS GENERALLY OUT OF THE WEST THROUGH AT
LEAST THU. AT THAT TIME HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER
THE GULF AND WINDS WILL LIKELY BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE FRI AND
THROUGH WEEKEND. IN ADDITION TO THE LIGHT WINDS SEAS WILL BE ON THE
LOW SIDE AS WELL MAINLY RANGING FROM 1-4 FT THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE
FCST. AS FOR SHRA/TSRA THERE SHOULD BE AT LEAST ONE TO TWO MORE
DAYS OF DECENT COVERAGE BUT BY FRI THE MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL START TO
BUILD IN BRINGING MUCH LOWER RAIN CHANCES OF RAIN.


New Orleans Local Weather thread - dkmac - 07-09-2009 03:54 AM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
327 AM CDT THU JUL 9 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
SIGNIFICANTLY LESS CONVECTION TONIGHT COMPARED TO LAST NIGHT. ONLY
A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EVIDENT ON THE RADAR
SCOPE...AND THEY/RE LIMITED TO THE OFFSHORE WATERS OF THE GULF OF
MEXICO. TEMPS ARE SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT WITH MOST PLACES
CURRENTLY STILL SITTING IN THE UPPER 70S. MAIN EXCEPTION IS THE
FAR NORTHERN ZONES WHERE TEMPS ARE CURRENTLY IN THE MID 70S.
DEWPOITNS ARE STILL IN THE LOW TO MID 70S ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
LITTLE HAS CHANGED IN THE FORECAST THINKING. THE MID LEVEL HIGH IS
FORECAST TO CONTINUE NUDGING EASTWARD TODAY...BUT SHOULD STILL SEE
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS AREAS SOUTH OF I-10.
ELSEWHERE...WILL CARRY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS. LESS CONVECTIVE
COVERAGE WILL LEAD TO SLIGHTLY HIGHER TEMPERATURES TODAY COMPARED
TO YESTERDAY. GENERALLY EXPECT AFTERNOON HIGHS TO TOP OUT IN THE
MID 90S ACROSS INLAND AREAS AND LOWER 90S FOR AREAS CLOSER TO THE
COAST.

ALL MODELS FORECAST THE THE HIGH TO CONTINUE BUILDING EASTWARD
FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. LUCKILY...IT DOESN/T LOOK LIKE THE
RIDGE WILL HAVE QUITE AS STRONG A HOLD OF THE AREA AS IT DID IN
JUNE.

THE MAIN DIFFERENCES IN THE MODEL FORECASTS CONCERN THE AMOUNT OF
CONVECTION THAT IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP DESPITE THE CAPPING. THE
GFS IS THE DRIEST OF THE MODELS WITH ONLY ABOUT A 10 PERCENT
CHANCE OF RAIN EACH DAY. THE NAM IS THE WETTEST WITH UP TO 50
PERCENT POPS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. PERSONALLY FEEL THAT THE GFS IS
PROBABLY A TAD TOO DRY AND THE NAM IS TOO WET. WITH THAT
SAID...WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS MOST OF
THE AREA FIGURING THAT ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
ABLE TO BREAK THROUGH THE CAP EACH AFTERNOON. GENERALLY EXPECTING
TEMPERATURES TO TOP OUT IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

IT/S A LITTLE BEYOND MY FORECAST PERIOD...BUT TOWARD THE END OF
NEXT WEEK IT LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER TROUGH WILL DIG SOUTHWARD ALONG
THE EAST COAST AND PUSH THE RIDGE TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST CONUS
PUTTING THE NORTHERN GULF COAST UNDER NORTH TO NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT. THIS WOULD RESULT IN HIGHER CHANCES OF RAIN SIMILAR TO WHAT
WE/VE BEEN EXPERIENCING OVER THE LAST FEW DAYS.


&&

.AVIATION...
SHORT-TERM MVFR VSBY IN BR THIS MORNING AT KMCB AND KGPT...OTHERWISE
VFR AT MOST LOCATIONS. SCATTERED TSRA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON MAINLY
ALONG SEA BREEZE BUT RELATIVELY DRIER AIR OVER REGION TO KEEP
COVERAGE LOWER THAN CLIMATOLOGY. BEST CHANCE FOR TSRA WOULD BE AT
KMSY AND KHUM. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AFTER 00Z.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS AND SEAS TO REMAIN RATHER LOW NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE GULF STATES AND PRESENTS A FLAT
GRADIENT IN THE COASTAL WATERS. THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE MAINLY BEYOND
20 NM IN RESPONSE TO LINGERING FRONTAL ZONE TO MAINTAIN LOCALLY
HIGHER WIND GUSTS...CHOPPY SEAS AND POSSIBILITIES FOR WATERSPOUTS
THIS MORNING.


New Orleans Local Weather thread - dkmac - 07-10-2009 04:29 AM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
328 AM CDT FRI JUL 10 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
REMNANTS OF A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAIN LOCATED NEAR THE COAST.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER NEW ENGLAND WITH A DEEP LOW
OVER CENTRAL CANADA. A FRONT EXTENDS SOUTHWARD FROM THAT LOW
TOWARD A WEAKER SURFACE LOW LOCATED OVER SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO.
DEWPOINTS HAVE BEEN HOLDING STEADY IN THE LOW 70S WITH
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S. WINDS ARE CALM ACROSS THE
MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST AREA.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
MID-LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD EASTWARD TODAY AND
SHOULD RESULT IN A FAIRLY STRONG SUBSIDENCE INVERSION AROUND 700
MB. WITH A MODERATE CAP IN PLACE...DON/T EXPECT MUCH IN THE WAY OF
CONVECTION UNTIL THE RIDGE SHIFTS BACK TOWARD THE WEST. A LACK OF
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN
ABOVE NORMAL. LUCKILY...WE/RE NOT EXPECTING TO EXPERIENCE ANOTHER
RECORD HEAT WAVE LIKE WHAT WAS EXPERIENCED IN JUNE. EXPECT TEMPS
TO REMAIN GENERALLY IN THE MID 90S WITH INLAND LOCATIONS REACHING
THE UPPER 90S SOME DAYS.

THE RIDGE WON/T HAVE QUITE AS STRONG A HOLD ON THE AREA AS IT DID
LAST MONTH...SO DAYTIME HEATING IN SOME LOCATIONS SHOULD BE ENOUGH
TO MUSTER UP A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THIS WILL BE AN
EASIER FEAT ALONG THE COAST...SO WILL CARRY SLIGHTLY HIGHER POPS
ACROSS COASTAL AREAS. FOR INLAND AREAS...WILL LEAVE OUT ANY
MENTION OF PRECIP THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO THE FIRST PART OF
THE NEXT WORK WEEK.

BY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...A DEEP MID-LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO
MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND INTO NEW ENGLAND. AS IT
DOES SO...IT WILL FORCE A FRONT TOWARD THE COAST. MODELS SUGGEST
THAT THIS TROUGH WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO CREATE A WEAKNESS IN THE
RIDGE...ALLOWING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TO DEVELOP...MAINLY ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA.

AS WE MOVE INTO THURSDAY...A SECOND MID-LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST
TO REACH THE EAST COAST AND RAPIDLY DIG SOUTHWARD TOWARD THE GULF
COAST. THIS TROUGH IS FORECAST TO BE STRONG ENOUGH TO NUDGE THE
RIDGE WESTWARD ONCE AGAIN PUTTING THE AREA UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT AND ALLOWING A MORE TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN OF DIURNALLY
FORCED THUNDERSTORMS. FOR THE TIME BEING...WILL CARRY POPS IN THE
30 TO 40 PERCENT RANGE...BUT THESE MAY NEED TO BE NUDGED UP ONCE
CONFIDENCE IS GREATER THAT WE WILL SEE THE SAME KIND OF COVERAGE
AS WAS SEEN EARLIER THIS WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...
LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE OVER THE REGION SHOULD LIMIT TSRA COVERAGE
TODAY TO ISOLATED. WILL INDICATE WITH CB ON CLOUD HEIGHTS BUT
REFRAIN FROM INCLUDING PROB30 OR TEMPO DUE TO LOW CHANCE AT ANY
PARTICULAR TERMINAL...THOUGH KMSY...KBTR AND KHUM PROBABLY ARE
SLIGHTLY BETTER TO SEE THREAT THAN OTHER AIRPORTS IN FORECAST AREA
THROUGH 02Z. GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS FOR NEXT 24-36 HOURS.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE AREA ALOFT FROM THE WEST AND
COUPLING WITH BERMUDA RIDGE EXTENSION BUILDING WESTWARD FROM THE
ATLANTIC WILL KEEP DOLDRUM CONDITIONS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. ONLY REAL CONCERNS WILL BE LOCALIZED
CHOPPIER WAVES AND GUSTS 25-35 KT IN SLOW MOVING TROPICAL TYPE
THUNDERSTORMS. WATERSPOUTS CAN BE QUITE COMMON UNDER DEVELOPING
TOWERING CUMULI OVER THE WATERS NEXT FEW DAYS.


New Orleans Local Weather thread - dkmac - 07-11-2009 05:46 AM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
402 AM CDT SAT JUL 11 2009

.SHORT TERM...
MUCH OF THE SAME EXPECTED TODAY. UPPER LVL RIDGE REMAINS ANCHORED
ACROSS THE TEXAS PANHANDLE. THE CWA IS STILL ON THE EASTERN EDGE...
THUS ALLOWING FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR STORMS TO DEVELOP. WITH SIMILAR
CONDITIONS TODAY... NOT EXPECTING A WHOLE LOT IN THE WAY OF
COVERAGE. MOISTURE DOESNT LOOK TOO BAD WITH PWATS A LITTLE UNDER 2
INCHES BUT WILL BE LIMITED BY LACK OF SIGNIFICANT INSTABILITY. AND
THEN THE SEABREEZE MOVING INLAND COULD PROVIDE JUST ENOUGH LIFT FOR
A FEW TCU`S TO FOCUS ON. NEVER THE LESS...A FEW AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA. DID BUMPED THE TEMPS
UP A DEGREE OR TWO FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST. LOW LEVEL MODEL TEMPS
LOOK TO SUPPORT MID 90S NORTH OF I-12 AND LOWER 90S SOUTHWARD.
GUIDANCE WAS A LITTLE TOO COOL YESTERDAY AND WITH BASICALLY NO
CHANGES...SHOULD SEE SAME TODAY. DEWPOINTS STILL TOO LOW TO BE
CONCERNED WITH HEAT ADVISORY. THATS NOT TO SAY IT WON/T BE HOT WITH
HEAT INDICIES IN THE LOW 100S.

.LONG TERM...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BEGIN A GRADUAL SHIFT TO THE EAST EARLY NEXT
WEEK. DID MAKE A FEW SMALL CHANGES IN TEMPERATURES. MODEL 850H
INCREASES ON MONDAY FALL IN LINE WITH INCREASING RIDGE CENTERING
OVER THE AREA. ATTM...EXPECTING MID 90S NEAR THE COAST AND UPPER 90S
TO THE NORTH. MODELS INDICATE SFC RIDGE DEVELOPING IN THE EASTERN
GULF EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A BETTER ESTABLISHED FLOW
OF MOISTURE INTO THE AREA. HIGHER DEWPOINTS WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN
TEMPS COULD BRING BACK THE CONCERN FOR DANGEROUS LEVELS OF HEAT ON
TUESDAY WITH A 105 TO 110 HEAT INDEX ALONG THE INTERSTATE 10 AND 12
CORRIDORS. UNFORTUNATELY...A GENERAL DRYING TREND DURING THIS TIME
PERIOD WILL EXACERBATE THE SITUATION. NOT UNTIL LATER ON IN THE
WEEK WILL AN APPRECIABLE INCREASE IN POPS A OCCUR. A SERIES OF UPPER
LEVEL TROUGHS WILL HELP TO BREAK DOWN THE RIDGE AND SHIFT IT BACK TO
THE WEST. DIDN/T MAKE MANY CHANGES WITH THE EXTENDED POP FORECAST...
STILL HAVING CHNC OF SH/TS THURS AND FRIDAY AND POSSIBLY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.

MEFFER
&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL AFTER PATCHY MVFR VSBY IN BR AT A FEW
LOCATIONS ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI COAST THROUGH 14Z. ISOLATED TSRA
COVERAGE THIS AFTERNOON MAINLY ALONG GULF AND LAKE BREEZES BETWEEN
20Z AND 01Z. 24/RR

&&

.MARINE...
RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS AND LOW SEAS TO PREVAIL FOR THE ENTIRE
FORECAST PERIOD AS BERMUDA RIDGE EXTENSION FROM THE ATLANTIC
UNDERCUTS SUBSIDENCE RIDGING ALOFT. 24/RR


New Orleans Local Weather thread - ROLLTIDE - 07-11-2009 03:43 PM

000
FXUS64 KLIX 112014
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
314 PM CDT SAT JUL 11 2009

.SHORT TERM...
OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS THE STRONG UPPER HIGH WILL REMAIN ANCHORED
OVER THE OK/N TX REGION WITH THE E EXTENT OF THE RIDGE AXIS
REACHING LA. CENTER OF RIDGE REMAINS DISPLACED FAR ENOUGH TO THE
WEST THAT THE FORECAST AREA IS NOT FEELING THE TOTAL SUPPRESSION
OF AFTERNOON CONVECTION. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ON
GOING THIS AFTERNOON WILL LIKELY CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY HOURS
BEFORE DISSIPATING AND REDEVELOPING OVER THE COASTAL WATERS.
GFS...NAM...AND ECMWF ALL SUGGEST TSTM COVERAGE ON SUNDAY
AFTERNOON WILL BE SOMEWHAT MORE ENHANCED AS A WEAK DISTURBANCE
MOVES AROUND THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER RIDGE. WILL NUDGE POPS
UP INTO THE 30 TO 40 PERCENT RANGE. UPPER RIDGE BUILDS EASTWARD ON
MONDAY WHICH SHOULD SUPPRESS MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON CONVECTION.
LOWERING POPS BACK TOWARD 20 PERCENT...ISOLATED. MAX TEMPS SHOULD
ALSO CLIMB INTO THE MID 90S MOST AREAS ON MONDAY WITH SOME UPPER
90S POSSIBLE.

.LONG TERM...
SEVERAL DISTURBANCES IN THE MID LEVEL FLOW MAY AFFECT THE REGIONS
FROM LATE TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. THE GFS...AND TO SOME DEGREE
THE ECMWF...SUGGEST THAT MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH A MID LEVEL
DISTURBANCE THAT MOVES SE THROUGH GA AND AL ON TUESDAY MAY MOVE W
AND SW ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY MID LEVEL RIDGE ANCHORED OVER TX
AND LA. AS A RESULT...THE MOISTURE MAY INCREASE CHANCES OF RAIN
TUE EVENING AND INTO WEDNESDAY OVER THE SE PORTION OF THE FORECAST
AREA AND COASTAL WATERS. IN THE THU THROUGH SAT TIME FRAME...THE UPPER
HIGH SHIFTS W AND NW TO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION AS THE UPPER
TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN PART OF THE NATION SHARPENS AND DEVELOPS
SOUTHWARD. THIS SHOULD ALLOW A WEAK SURFACE FRONT TO DROP TOWARD
THE REGION PRODUCING A BETTER FOCUS FOR INCREASED THUNDERSTORM
COVERAGE. RAINFALL CHANCES SHOULD INCREASE IN THE LATTER HALF OF
WEEK TO AT LEAST CLIMATOLOGY...40 PCT...AND MAY HAVE TO BE ADJUSTED
UPWARD WITH LATER FORECAST. FOLLOWING ANOTHER HOT DAY ON TUESDAY
WITH MAX TEMPS IN THE MID 90S...MAX TEMPS SHOULD MODERATE LATER IN
THE WEEK AS CLOUDS AND SHOWER ACTIVITY DEVELOP EARLIER IN THE DAY.

&&


New Orleans Local Weather thread - ROLLTIDE - 07-12-2009 04:18 AM

000
FXUS64 KLIX 120500
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1200 AM CDT SUN JUL 12 2009

.AVIATION...
06Z DISCUSSION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH SUNDAY OUTSIDE OF
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
WILL INSERT PROB30 AT EACH TAF SITE FOR INCREASED CHANCES OF TSRA
SUNDAY. MODEL SOUNDING AROUND 18Z IS SLIGHTLY CONDUCIVE FOR
DOWNBURST...WILL GUSTS UP TO 30 KNOTS AT ALL TAF SITES SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. PATCHY LIGHT FOG DEVELOPMENT WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE
TONIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY MORNING AT KMCB AND KGPT RESULTING IN THE
POTENTIAL FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR VISIBILITIES.

&&


New Orleans Local Weather thread - dkmac - 07-12-2009 06:09 AM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
423 AM CDT SUN JUL 12 2009

.SHORT TERM...
VIRTUALLY NO CHANGE HAS OCCURRED IN UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WITH RIDGE
TO THE WEST OF THE AREA. MCS OVER EAST CENTRAL ARKANSAS IS NOW
MOVING INTO NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI. ANVIL BLOW OFF SHOULD REACH
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA BY SUNRISE AS THIS FEATURE CONTINUES ON
A SEWD TRACK. THINKING IS THAT TEMPS WILL BE A LITTLE SLOWER TO
INCREASE AND COULD THEN HINDER OVERALL DAYTIME HEATING. 850MB
ANALYSIS SHOWS NOSE OF INCREASED MOISTURE EXTENDING FROM NEAR MEM TO
BTR. THE ORIENTATION OF POPS FOLLOWS RELATIVELY CLOSE TO THIS AREA
AND IS QUITE HIGHER THAN PREVIOUS FORECAST. MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE
SLIGHTLY MORE INSTABILITY THAN YESTERDAY SO DONT SEE ANY REASON FOR
NOT HAVING BETTER COVERAGE. THIS ALSO WEIGHS IN ON TEMP FORECAST
WHICH RANGES FROM NEAR 90 ALONG THE COAST TO LOWER 90S ELSEWHERE.

.LONG TERM...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TO BECOME MUCH MORE BROAD THROUGH THE WEEK.
INCREASING HTS AND THUS WARMING MIDLEVELS WILL RESULT IN TEMPS IN
THE MID TO UPPER 90S. GUIDANCE HAS BACKED OFF SOMEWHAT ON TEMPS
TUESDAY MOST LIKELY B/C OF INCREASING POPS BUT NOT GOING TO BITE OFF
ON IT YET. BETTER ESTABLISHED SFC HIGH WILL KEEP DAILY MIN DEWPOINTS
SLIGHTLY HIGHER. THIS ALONG WITH INCREASING HIGHS WILL BRING HEAT
INDICIES BACK TO VERY UNCOMFORTABLE VALUES. MODELS INDICATE
CONTINUED SHORT WAVES TRAVERSING ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE RIDGE.
SO...HAVE SLIGHTLY INCREASED POPS NEAR GPT MONDAY BUT KEPT OTHER
AREAS DRY. NIGHTLY MCS LOOK TO CONTINUE FOR A FEW MORE DAYS. GFS
APPEARS TO BE PICKING UP ON THIS AND HAS A LEFT OVER MCV JUST OFF
THE COAST SOUTHEAST OF BVE. THINKING IS THAT ENHANCED LIFT WILL
RESULT IN INCREASED SH/TS DEVELOPMENT ON TUESDAY.
OTHERWISE...GENERAL AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK
AS THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH BEGINS BREAKING DOWN THE RIDGE. A GRADUAL
DROP OFF IN TEMPS TO NEAR NORMAL TOWARDS THE END OF THIS WEEK IS
EXPECTED AS WELL.

DIDN/T MENTION IT ON PREVIOUS AFD DUE TO ECMWF BEING THE
OUTLIAR...BUT IT APPEARS THAT AN UNUSUALLY DEEP TROUGH COULD BE IN
THE FORECAST FOR NEXT WEEKEND. MODELS NOW INDICATING THE ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT FRI NIGHT/SAT MORNING. A HEALTHY COVERAGE OF STORMS WOULD
DEF BE EXPECTED IF THIS WERE TO PAN OUT. HOW FAR SOUTH THIS BOUNDARY
PROGRESSES BEFORE STALLING WOULD HAVE FAIRLY LARGE IMPACTS ON POPS
BUT DID RECOGNIZE ITS POTENTIAL IN POP FORECAST.

MEFFER
&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL OUTSIDE THUNDERSTORMS. A LARGE COMPLEX OF
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE VICINITY OF MEMPHIS WILL LIKELY DISSIPATE
BEFORE REACHING THE FORECAST TERMINALS BUT ASSOCIATED INSTABILITY
WITH THIS FEATURE MAY ALLOW FOR INITIATION OF SCATTERED COVERAGE
ALONG SEA AND LAKE BREEZES AT TERMINALS LATE THIS MORNING AND EARLY
AFTERNOON. PROB30 PERIOD INDICATED AT THIS TIME BUT ANALYSIS OF 12Z
UPPER AIR DATA MAY WARRANT UPGRADE TO TEMPO FOR SOME LOCATIONS LATER
THIS MORNING. 24/RR

&&

.MARINE...
RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS AND LOW SEAS WILL PREVAIL FOR THE ENTIRE
FORECAST PERIOD AS THE BERMUDA RIDGE EXTENSION FROM THE ATLANTIC
UNDERCUTS SUBSIDENCE RIDGING ALOFT THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
24/RR


New Orleans Local Weather thread - dkmac - 07-13-2009 05:19 AM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
430 AM CDT MON JUL 13 2009

.SHORT TERM...
TYPICAL SUMMERTIME NOCTURNAL SHOWERS HAVE BEEN POPPING UP ALONG THE
COAST WITHIN THE LAST COUPLE HRS. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD WANE WITH
TIME LATER THIS MORNING. SHOULD BE MUCH DRIER FOR AREAS AROUND BTR
AND MCB THAT RECEIVED RAINFALL YESTERDAY. A SHIFT TO THE EAST IN
HIGHER POPS MAINLY DO TO EXPECTED LOCATION OF THE SERIES OF IMPULSES
MOVING AROUND THE UPPER RIDGE TO THE WEST. BASICALLY SLGT CHANCE
ALONG AND EAST OF A MCB TO ASD LINE. MODEL SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO
INDICATE DRYNESS IN THE MID LEVELS WHICH WILL TRANSLATE TO THE
POTENTIAL FOR DOWNBURSTS. NOT TOO CONCERNED WITH ALL STORMS BEING
SVR BUT ONE OR POSSIBLY TWO COULD EXIST BUT MAINLY 30 TO 40 MPH.

THE OTHER ISSUE IN TODAYS WEATHER WILL BE INCREASING HEAT. DEWPOINTS
SHOULDN/T FALL TOO MUCH AND SLIGHTLY INCREASE IN A FEW LOCATIONS.
WARMING TEMPS ALONG WITH MORE MOISTURE SHOULD BRING HEAT INDICIES
INTO THE 105 TO 108 RANGE MAINLY NORTH OF A PIERRE PART TO SLIDELL
LINE. SO...HEAT ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED THROUGH 00Z.

.LONG TERM...
MODELS HAVE BEEN FAIRLY CONSISTENT FOR THE LAST FEW RUNS. AS UPPER
TROUGH EXITS THE EXTREME NE CONUS...THE UPPER RIDGE WILL THEN BE
ABLE TO EXTENT EASTWARD. FOR ONE...TEMPS WILL BE ABLE TO REMAIN
ABOVE CLIMO SO MAY POSSIBLY HAVE TO EXTEND THE HEAT ADVISORY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. RELIEF FROM THE HEAT WILL POSSIBLE THESE DAYS AS THERE
WILL BE A CHANCE FOR AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS. COVERAGE DOESN/T
APPEAR TO BE HIGH ENOUGH THOUGH TO COMPLETELY NEGATE THE NEED FOR AN
ADVISORY. THE MAIN REASON FOR STORMS LOOKS TO BE RELATED TO REMNANT
MCVS FROM OVERNIGHT MCS TRACKING AROUND THE RIDGE. SO...EXPECTING
COVERAGE TO INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST.

MODELS STILL INDICATING A DEEPER TROUGH TO DIG ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER
VALLEY LATE THIS WEEK. THIS WILL BREAK DOWN THE EAST SIDE OF THE
RIDGE AND ALLOW ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT TO APPROACH THE AREA. GFS HAS
BACKED OFF SLIGHTLY ON THE SPEED OF THIS BOUNDARY BY ABOUT 12 HRS
WHILE THE ECMWF WHICH IS THE PREFERRED REMAINS AROUND 12Z SAT. THE
FRONT WILL SLOW AS IS NEAR. EXPECTING FAIRLY WIDESPREAD COVERAGE OF
STORMS AND HAVE THEREFORE INCREASED POPS ACROSS THE AREA TO AT LEAST
CHNC AND LIKELY IN A SMALLER PORTION OF THE CWA. THE FRONT THEN
LOOKS TO STALL JUST OFF THE COAST. SO...COULD END UP WITH QUITE A
BIT OF RAIN ALONG THE COASTAL PARISHES. WILL NEED TO CONTINUE TO
MONITOR FOR CHANGES.

MEFFER
&&

.AVIATION...
MVFR CATEGORY VSBYS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 13-14Z AT KMCB AND MAY
REDEVELOP 10-13Z AT KBTR DUE TO HEAVY RAINFALL YESTERDAY.
OTHERWISE...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TODAY AT THE TAF
AIRPORTS. SHRA/TSRA IS EXPECTED TO BE ISOLATED TODAY BUT MAY
INCREASE AT KGPT LATE TONIGHT. HAVE INDICATED VCTS MOSTLY LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AT THE TAF AIRPORTS...BUT WILL PROBABLY REMOVE MENTION AT
KBTR AND KMSY WITH THE 12Z TAFS SINCE THERE IS ONLY A 10 PERCENT
CHANCE OF MEASURABLE RAIN IN THE FORECAST.

22/TD
&&

.MARINE...
THE NOCTURNAL LOW LEVEL JET INCREASED WINDS AFTER ABOUT 1 AM/06Z
THIS MORNING WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS UP IN THE 10 TO 15 KNOTS RANGE
OVER THE COASTAL WATERS AND TIDAL LAKES. AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE/TROUGHING AND STRONGER UPPER LEVEL WINDS OVER THE
INTERIOR SOUTHEAST STATES HAVE HELPED CAUSE THE LOW LEVEL RESPONSE.
THESE WINDS SHOULD EASE THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON WITH DAYTIME
HEATING...THEN INCREASE TO 10 TO 15 KNOTS AGAIN TONIGHT MORE DUE TO
AN INCREASE IN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT AS ANOTHER BACKDOOR FRONTAL
BOUNDARY APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
WILL PREVAIL TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY WITH GENERALLY LIGHT SOUTHWEST
WINDS. ANOTHER WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAY ACTUALLY PUSH INTO COASTAL
SECTIONS THIS WEEKEND. TODAY WILL PROBABLY HAVE THE LEAST AMOUNT OF
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OVER WATER...BUT THAT WILL PROBABLY CHANGE
OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS A SLIGHTLY WETTER THAN NORMAL SUMMER
PATTERN SETS IN.