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New Orleans Local Weather thread - ROLLTIDE - 06-30-2009 03:26 AM
SkyWarn Training Schedule
by NWS Forecast Office
Slidell, Louisiana
Severe Weather/Storm Spotter - Training SessionsBasic SkyWarn Training Session
Sky Warn training session at Baton Rouge listed below has been postponed until a later date this summer
Please check this web page late for updated times. Thank you.
When: 6:00PM - 8:00PM Tuesday - June 30, 2009
Where: Advanced Traffic Management - Emergency Operations Center
3773 Harding Ave Baton Rouge, LA 70087
Local Sponsor - Baton Rouge Mayor's Office of Homeland Security and Emergency Management
Visit this web page for additional information on the course
or contact Wil White - 225-389-2100
NWS Contact - Frank Revitte, 985-649-0357 x 223.
Continue to check this page for upcoming sessions.
New Orleans Local Weather thread - dkmac - 06-30-2009 06:23 AM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
420 AM CDT TUE JUN 30 2009
.DISCUSSION...
LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED A STATIONARY BOUNDARY STRADDLING
THE CENTRAL GULF COAST. NORTH WINDS WERE NOTED AT MCB AND PIB AND
DEWPOINT READINGS WERE IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S ACROSS SOUTH
MISSISSIPPI BACK TOWARD ALABAMA AND GEORGIA. UPPER AIR ANALYSIS
AND IR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED THE LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES
REGION AND NORTHWEST FLOW FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS TO SOUTHEAST
CONUS. INITIAL PW PLOTS SHOWED VALUES AROUND 2 INCHES ALONG AND
SOUTH OF THE FRONT AND A SHARP GRADIENT FROM 1.8 INCHES TO 1 INCH
WAS FROM EAST CENTRAL LOUISIANA AND WEST CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI. THIS
GRADIENT IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT SOUTH TODAY. GFS AND NAM BRINGS PW
VALUES LESS THAN 1.2 INCHES ACROSS THE NORTH HALF OF FORECAST
AREA THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING...SO LIMITED CHANCE
OF CONVECTION MOST OF THE AREA TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. TEMPS WILL
WARM ABOVE NORM TODAY AND ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY BUT DEWPOINT
READINGS WILL REMAIN NEAR OR BELOW 70F THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING.
SURFACE RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE EAST HALF OF THE
GULF THURSDAY AND YIELD A SOUTH FLOW ACROSS THE AREA BEGINNING
THURSDAY. PW VALUES WILL SLOWLY INCREASE INTO 1.5 TO 1.7 INCHES
THURSDAY AND INCREASING TO NEAR 2 INCHES FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
SURFACE HEATING AND DEEP MOISTURE WILL YIELD CONVECTION BUT NOT
ORGANIZED FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. SEVERAL WAVES IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW
WILL POOL MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY AND MEANDER A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY JUST NORTH OF THE AREA NEXT WEEK...ACCORDING TO GFS.
ECMWF SHOWED THE RIDGE REBUILDING OVER THE AREA STARTING SAT. WILL
LEAN TO GFS AND MAINTAIN CHANCE POPS FOR THE WEEKEND AND NEXT
WEEK. STRONGER STORMS ARE POSSIBLE SUNDAY IN THE STRONGER
NORTHWEST FLOW.
&&
.AVIATION...
AVIATION...
...12Z TAF ISSUANCE...
A LAYER OF UPPER LEVEL(BKN200) CLOUDS MIXED WITH SCT AT TIMES WILL
PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. MCB SHOULD HAVE SOME LIGHT BR
DEVELOP NEAR SUNRISE. OTHERWISE...VFR WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE BOARD
THROUGH THE PERIOD. PRESSURE GRADIENT IS ALMOST NONEXISTENT SO WINDS
SHOULD BE WEAK. SHOULD NOT SEE TS WORDING TODAY AS THE FRONTAL
TROUGH HAS SLIPPED TO NEAR THE COAST.
&&
MARINE...
A WEAK FRONTAL TROUGH HAS STALLED NEAR THE COAST. THIS BOUNDARY WILL
PROVIDE A FOCAL FOR SH/TS TO DEVELOP ALONG THROUGH THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. DEEP MOISTURE WILL RETURN ON SOUTHERLY WINDS BY THE END
OF THE WEEK AS ANOTHER WEAK FRONT MOVES TOWARD THE GULF COAST AND
STALLS BY THE END OF THE WEEK.
New Orleans Local Weather thread - Southernbelle - 06-30-2009 09:24 AM
The rain made it a little 'cooler' this morning.
New Orleans Local Weather thread - dkmac - 07-01-2009 06:28 AM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
434 AM CDT WED JUL 1 2009
.DISCUSSION...
LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS CONTINUE TO SHOW 50S AND 60S DEWPOINT
FIELDS FROM THE CAROLINAS TO EAST CENTRAL LOUISIANA...70S
ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI COAST AND SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA. THE
DEWPOINT GRADIENT WAS NOTED JUST NORTH OF I-10 IN MISSISSIPPI AND
NORTH OF I-12 IN LOUISIANA...GENERALLY THE SAME VICINITY OF THE
OLD BOUNDARY. ANKLE DEEP MOISTURE WILL BE PRONED TO MIX OUT
DURING THE EACH AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY. 00Z SOUNDING SHOWED A
VERY DRY LAYER FROM 800MB TO 650MB. UPPER LEVEL HIGH OUT WEST WILL
SLOWLY APPROACH THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND NORTHWEST FLOW ON
THE EDGES WILL MAINTAIN A FEW DRY LAYERS ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH
AT LEAST FRIDAY. ERGO...BELIEVE DRY AIR MIXING OUT TO THE SURFACE
WILL LIKELY OCCUR ACROSS SOUTH MISSISSIPPI AND EAST CENTRAL
LOUISIANA THROUGH FRIDAY. IN ADDITION...ABOVE NORMAL AFTERNOON
HIGHS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS PERIOD. OVER THE WEEKEND...RIDGE
WILL SLOWLY MOVE TOWARD THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BUT SLOWLY
BREAKDOWN MONDAY. GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN AGREEMENT WITH A WAVE
APPROACHING THE CENTRAL GULF COAST FROM THE NORTHWEST MID NEXT
WEEK. WILL PUSH HIGHER RAIN CHANCES FOR NEXT WEEK AND MAINTAIN ABOVE
NORM AFTERNOON TEMPS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
&&
AVIATION...
/PRELIMINARY 12Z TAF ISSUANCE/
VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY. SOME BKN120 DECKS DURING THE MORNING
SHOULD BE OUT BY NOON.
&&
MARINE...
A WEAK FRONTAL TROUGH WILL SAG SOUTHWARD TODAY WHILE THE BERMUDA
HIGH STRENGTHENS ITS POSITION OVER THE GULF. THE GRADIENT BETWEEN
THESE TWO FEATURES WILL TIGHTEN CAUSING WIND SPEEDS TO INCREASE OVER
NIGHT TONIGHT. A COASTAL JET WILL ALSO DEVELOP ON THE MAINLAND SIDE
OF BARRIER ISLANDS. BY THE END OF THE WEEK...EXPECT SOUTHERLY FLOW
TO RETURN TO THE AREA AND BEGIN BRINGING MOISTURE BACK TO THE AREA.
ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS ALSO FORECAST TO MOVE TOWARD THE AREA
AND STALL NEAR THE COAST TOWARD WEEKS END. SOME TS ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER A PORTION OF THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH
THE PERIOD. WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE HIGHER IN AN AROUND THESE TS.
New Orleans Local Weather thread - dkmac - 07-02-2009 06:03 AM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
344 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2009
.SHORT TERM...
THE STRONG AND PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES
WILL BEGIN TO PULL TO THE EAST THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND. AS THE TROUGH PULLS TO THE EAST...STRONG MID AND
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
WILL EXPAND TO THE EAST...AND ONCE AGAIN OVERSPREAD THE GULF
SOUTH. AS A RESULT...EXPECT VERY WARM AND MUGGY CONDITIONS THROUGH
SUNDAY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. TEMPERATURES SHOULD CLIMB INTO
THE UPPER 90S AND LOWER 100S...WITH RECORD HIGHS THREATENED AT BTR
AND MSY. FORTUNATELY...THE AIRMASS ALOFT IS FAIRLY DRY...WHICH
SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME LOWER DEWPOINTS DURING THE PEAK HEATING
HOURS. THIS SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR MIXING DOWN TO THE SURFACE WILL
KEEP HEAT INDICES AROUND 105 TO 110 THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
THESE LOWER DEWPOINTS HAVE ALSO LED ME TO HOLD OFF ON ISSUING ANY
HEAT ADVISORIES FOR TODAY AND TOMORROW.
THERE IS A VERY SLIGHT CHANCE FOR LATE AFTERNOON CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT EACH DAY...AS A WEAK CONVERGENCE ZONE IS EXPECTED
ALONG THE SEABREEZE FRONT. HOWEVER...WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE ALOFT
AND AMPLE DRY AIR IN THE MID-LEVELS...CREATING A FAIRLY
SUBSTANTIAL CAP...IT WILL BE HARD PRESSED TO SEE ANY SUBSTANTIAL
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ONLY IF THE CONVECTIVE
TEMPERATURE IS ACQUIRED...AND SOME ENHANCED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
POOLING TAKES HOLD ALONG THE SEABREEZE BOUNDARY SHOULD WE EXPECT
TO SEE ANY THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.
.LONG TERM...
HEADING INTO NEXT WEEK...BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS DEPICT A FAIRLY
VIGOROUS TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE
NATION...FORCING THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TO BECOME MORE NORTH-SOUTH
ORIENTED OVER TEXAS. THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION WILL
GENERALLY STAY ON THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THIS RIDGE ALLOWING FOR
AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF DEEP NORTHWEST FLOW. ALONG WITH THE LOWER
HEIGHTS AND GREATER LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE MAIN LONGWAVE TROUGH
AXIS...A SERIES OF IMPULSES ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
SHOULD SLIP THROUGH THE GULF SOUTH. THESE IMPULSES WILL SERVE TO
ENHANCE THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL OMEGA ACROSS THE AREA...ALLOWING
FOR HIGHER CHANCES OF CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT THROUGHOUT NEXT WEEK.
IT APPEARS THAT THE STRONGEST OF THESE IMPULSES SHOULD MOVE
THROUGH ON TUESDAY...AND HAVE PUT IN THE HIGHEST POPS FOR THIS
TIME FRAME. DUE TO THE EXPECTED CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY AND ASSOCIATED
CIRRUS BLOWOFF...TEMPERATURES SHOULD ALSO BE NEAR OR EVEN SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL FROM TUESDAY INTO THE END OF THE WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE. SOME
MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUD DECKS WILL BE AROUND ESPECIALLY DURING THE
MORNING HOURS. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND MOSTLY OUT OF THE WEST. SOME
LIGHT PATCHY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE EARLY IN THE MORNING AT MCB. 35
&&
.MARINE...
WEST WINDS WILL GIVE WAY TO SOUTHERLY FLOW AND BEGIN BRINGING
MOISTURE BACK INTO THE AREA BY THE WEEKEND. ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY
IS FORECAST TO MOVE TOWARD THE AREA AND STALL NEAR THE COAST BY
MONDAY NIGHT. CURRENTLY...NO FLAGS ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD WITH WINDS GENERALLY LESS THAN 15 KNOTS AND SEAS 3 FEET OR
LESS. 35
New Orleans Local Weather thread - dkmac - 07-03-2009 06:27 AM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
401 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2009
.SHORT TERM...
THE HOT WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A HEAT
ADVISORY WILL BE IN EFFECT TODAY FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA AND
WILL LIKELY NEED TO BE EXTENDED INTO SATURDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES
TODAY IN THE UPPER 90S TO LOWER 100S WILL COMBINE WITH DEW POINTS
RANGING FROM THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S TO PRODUCE HEAT INDEX VALUES
AROUND 105 DEGREES OR SLIGHTLY HIGHER THIS AFTERNOON. SIMILAR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES MAY BE A BIT
LOWER SUNDAY BUT HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL LIKELY BE A LITTLE HIGHER.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION LATE YESTERDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING PROVIDED NEEDED RAINFALL TO SOME AREAS AND PROVIDED RELIEF
FROM THE HEAT FOR SOME LOCATIONS. THIS CONVECTION WAS FOCUSED IN
THE VICINITY OF A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY THAT REMAINS DRAPED ACROSS
THE AREA THIS MORNING. THIS BOUNDARY MAY BE THE FOCUS FOR CONVECTION
AGAIN LATE TODAY AS IT SLIPS A LITTLE FARTHER TO THE SOUTH TOWARD
COASTAL AREAS...HOWEVER INCREASED MID LEVEL RIDGING FORECAST BY
MODELS TODAY AND LESS IN THE WAY OF UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE WILL
LIKELY MEAN ONLY ISOLATED CONVECTION AT BEST. ANY CONVECTION THAT
DOES DEVELOP...HOWEVER...COULD BE STRONG AND PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS. 11
.LONG TERM...
MODELS ARE FORECASTING A TREND TOWARD MORE TYPICAL TEMPERATURES
AND RAIN CHANCES FOR THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK. THIS WILL COME ABOUT
AS THE PERSISTENT MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE REGION BREAKS
DOWN AND SHIFTS TO THE WEST WHILE AN UPPER TROUGH MOVES EASTWARD
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND THE NORTHEAST CONUS. A WEAK
FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAY PUSH SOUTH TOWARD THE REGION DURING THE EARLY
TO MID PART OF NEXT WEEK SERVING AS A FOCUS FOR MORE CONVECTION.
THIS IN COMBINATION WITH WEAK DISTURBANCES SHOULD RESULT IN SCATTERED
CONVECTION EACH DAY NEXT WEEK. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS FORECAST TO
DEVELOP ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS TO THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH OF THE
REGION LATE NEXT WEEK. 11
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. A FEW ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING ACROSS THE AREA...BUT THE CHANCES OF RAIN AT ANY GIVEN
LOCATION REMAIN TOO LOW TO MENTION IN ANY PARTICULAR TAF SET. THE
PROBLEM WILL OBVIOUSLY BE IF A TS AFFECTS ONE OF THE TERMINALS...AS
TEMPS SOAR INTO THE UPPER 90S AND LOWER 100S...THE POTENTIAL WILL BE
FOR ANY ONE TS TO CONTAIN STRONG WIND SPEEDS AND HAIL. SOME 3-4SM BR
OVER THE BTR TERMINAL MAY OCCUR THIS MORNING FROM RAINFALL YESTERDAY
EVENING BUT SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE THE IFR VIS RANGE. 35
&&
.MARINE...
EXPECT WINDS TO REMAIN GENERALLY IN THE 5 TO 10 KT RANGE WITH SEAS
OF 1 TO 2 FEET THROUGH THE FOURTH OF JULY HOLIDAY. AS A WEAK FRONT
APPROACHES THE AREA NEXT WORK WEEK...WIND SPEEDS WILL INCREASE SLIGHTLY
WITH SEAS ALSO BUILDING IN RESPONSE. DO NOT ANTICIPATE ANY HEADLINES
AT THIS TIME...BUT MARINERS SHOULD BE AWARE THAT AS THE FRONT STALLS
OVER THE COASTAL WATERS...THERE WILL BE ENHANCED CHANCES OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE
HIGHER IN THE VICINITY OF ANY THUNDERSTORMS. 35
New Orleans Local Weather thread - dkmac - 07-04-2009 05:18 AM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
335 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2009
...ANOTHER HOT DAY EXPECTED FOR YOUR INDEPENDENCE DAY
CELEBRATIONS...
.SHORT TERM...IT LOOKS LIKE WE STILL HAVE A FEW MORE DAYS OF HOT
CONDITIONS FOR THE CWA BUT GOOD NEWS IS WE SHOULD BE SEEING A
PATTERN SHIFT FOR OUR AREA WHICH WILL BRING COOLER TEMPS AND MUCH
BETTER RAIN CHANCES.
TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...THINGS WILL REMAIN MOSTLY QUIET AND HOT
WITH THE MID LVL RIDGE STILL DOMINATING THE REGION. TEMPS OVERNIGHT
HAVE BEEN JUST UNBEARABLE WITH MANY LOCATIONS STILL ABV 80 DEGREES
BY 8Z. MORNING LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 70S TO
LOWER 80S WITH HEAT INDEX READINGS STILL IN THE 90S. YOUR
INDEPENDENCE DAY WILL ALREADY START OFF HOT BUT AS SOON AS THE SUN
COMES UP TEMPS WILL BEGIN TO CLIMB QUICKLY. H85 TEMPS WILL STILL BE
AROUND 21C SO THERE IS NO REASON WE SHOULDN`T SEE MID TO UPPER 90S
WIDESPREAD ONCE AGAIN AND THIS WILL CAUSE HEAT INDICIES TO RANGE
FROM 105-110 AGAIN THIS AFTN. WITH THIS WE WILL DEFINITELY NEED TO
HAVE ANOTHER HEAT ADV OUT. AS FOR CONVECTION...MID LVL TEMPS ROSE
QUITE A BIT YESTERDAY AFTN FROM -8 TO -5C AND WITH THAT MUCH WARMING
CONVECTION HAD A MUCH HARDER TIME YESTERDAY. WELL MID LVL TEMPS ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN AROUND -5C AND WITH THE RIDGE OVER THE AREA
CONVECTION SHOULD BE EVEN HARDER TO COME BY TODAY.
AS WE HEAD INTO SUN WE WILL START TO SEE THE RIDGE BEGIN TO BREAK
DOWN. LL TEMPS WILL BE A TAD COOLER SO HIGHS MAY ONLY GET INTO THE
MID 90S. IN ADDITION TO THAT WITH THE RIDGE STARTING TO ERODE OVER
THE AREA AND ABUNDANT MOISTURE IN PLACE(PWS 1.75-2") ISLTD TO SCT
CONVECTION WILL HAVE A BETTER CHANCE SUN AFTN. RAIN CHANCES WILL
ACTUALLY START TO INCREASE OVERNIGHT AS THE RIDGE FURTHER ERODES AND
THE FIRST OF WHICH COULD BE SEVERAL SUBTLE IMPULSES BEGIN TO MOVE
INTO THE CWA.
.LONG TERM...SURPRISINGLY THERE IS VERY GOOD AGREEMENT B/T THE GFS
AND ECMWF WITH THE EXTENDED FCST. BOTH MDLS SHOW THE RIDGE
COMPLETELY BREAKING DOWN OVER OUR AREA AND BEING REPLACED BY A WEAK
TROUGH. THE MDLS HAD BEEN ADVERTISING THIS SHIFT FROM THE HOT AND
MOSTLY DRY TO MORE OF A NORMAL TEMP AND ABV NORMAL POP FCST FOR A
FEW DAYS NOW SO CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING AND WE SHOULD FINALLY BREAK
OUT OF THIS HEAT AND START TO RELIEVE SOME OF THE DROUGHT COME EARLY
NEXT WEEK.
AS THE RIDGE FURTHER ERODES AND IS DISPLACED TO THE WE WILL START TO
SEE A FEW IMPULSES MOVE THROUGH THE REGION. BY MID WEEK A
WEAKNESS/TROUGH WILL ACTUALLY START TO DEVELOP DIRECTLY OVERHEAD
WITH THE TROUGH CLOSING OFF AND INTO A CLOSED LOW BY THE END OF THE
WORK WEEK. THIS WILL REALLY INCREASE THE RAIN CHANCES NEXT WEEK
COMPARED TO WHAT WE HAVE SEEN FOR THE PAST MONTH. MOISTURE WILL BE
IN SURPLUS WITH PWS AT OR EVEN ABV 2" THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK. LL
MOISTURE WILL ALSO BE IN ABUNDANCE WITH H85 THETA E VALUES RANGING
FROM 335-345K. WITH THIS MUCH MOISTURE INTO WILL ONLY TAKE VERY
SUBTLE INFLUENCES TO HELP DEVELOP CONVECTION AND THAT WILL ACTUALLY
BE THE MOST DIFFICULT PART OF THE FCST. TIMING OR EVEN FINDING THE
LITTLE SUBTLE FEATURES IS HARD ENOUGH A DAY TO EVEN A FEW HOURS OUT
BUT 3 TO 7 DAYS OUT IS PRACTICALLY IMPOSSIBLE. WITH THAT I WILL NOT
GET TO CUTE WITH TIMING AND JUST MAINLY SHOW SCT CONVECTION
THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED FCST BUT THERE WILL OF COURSE BE BREAKS IN
THE CONVECTION.
AS FOR TEMPS LL TEMPS WILL COOL NICELY(H85 TEMPS DOWN FROM 21-22C TO
MORE LIKE 18-19C). THIS WILL LEAD TO AFTN HIGHS BEING QUITE A BIT
COOLER RANGING FROM THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S. THIS WILL BE A VERY
WELCOME SITE ESPECIALLY FOR PLACES LIKE BATON ROUGE AND MCCOMB WHICH
BY MON WILL NOT HAVE SEEN AFTN HIGHS BELOW 95 DEGREES IN 20 DAYS.
MORNING LOWS WILL STILL BE ON THE WARM END THOUGH THANKS TO ALL OF
THE MOISTURE EXPECTED.
AS FOR DEVIATIONS TO GUI THE MAIN CHANGES WERE TO GO A DEGREE OR TWO
ABV MEX FOR BOTH HIGHS AND LOWS ON A FEW DAYS BUT I HAVE BASICALLY
JUST STUCK WITH THE MEX POPS VALUES. /CAB/
&&
.AVIATION...
CONTINUE VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH SUNDAY FOR MOST AREAS. CERTAINLY
POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT DURING THE HEAT OF THE
AFTERNOON...BUT AREAL EXTENT WILL BE EXTREMELY SMALL...AND WILL NOT
BE MENTIONED IN THE TAFS. ANY HZ/BR WILL BE LIMITED TO A FEW HOURS
AROUND SUNRISE...RIGHT NOW...IT APPEARS BEST POSSIBILITY WOULD BE
GPT...BUT THREAT NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO MENTION YET. CONVECTIVE CHANCES
AND POTENTIAL AVIATION RESTRICTIONS MAY START CREEPING INTO THE
FORECAST BY LATE AFTERNOON SUNDAY. 35
&&
.MARINE...
A RESIDUAL FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS MOVED LITTLE FROM THE SOUTHERN LA
COASTAL PARISHES...EXTENDING INTO THE NORTHERN GULF. SFC HIGH
PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY DRIFT SEWD THROUGH THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
THEREFORE...NOT ANY SIGNIFICANT CHANGES THROUGH THAT TIME PERIOD.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP ONSHORE FLOW OF 5 TO 15 KTS THRU MUCH OF
NEXT WEEK. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL PERSIST FOR MOST AFTERNOONS
BEGINNING ON MONDAY. 35
New Orleans Local Weather thread - dkmac - 07-05-2009 06:17 AM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
324 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE THIS MORNING NEAR THE CONFLUENCE OF THE OHIO AND
MISSISSIPPI RIVERS WITH A TRAILING FRONT TO NEAR THE DFW
METROPLEX. CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT EXTENDS FROM NEAR
NASHVILLE...TO LITTLE ROCK...TO NORTH TEXAS. OTHER THAN A FEW
CIRRUS...WEATHER ACROSS OUR AREA IS QUIET AT 08Z. HUMID WEATHER
CONTINUES WITH DEW POINTS IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 70S...AND
TEMPERATURES GENERALLY STILL IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 80S AT PRESS
TIME.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
LOOKS LIKE ONE MORE DAY OF OPPRESSIVE CONDITIONS BEFORE SOME RELIEF
ARRIVES. UPPER RIDGE BREAKING DOWN OR DRIFTING WEST...ALLOWING UPPER
FLOW TO BECOME SOMEWHAT NORTHWESTERLY. BOUNDARY WILL TAKE 24 TO 36
HOURS TO REACH THE AREA. AS HAS BEEN THE CASE THE LAST FEW
DAYS...VERY ISOLATED CONVECTION MAY DEVELOP DURING THE HEAT OF THE
AFTERNOON. WILL CARRY MENTION OF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS...BUT THAT
IS PROBABLY OVERKILL ON POPS. CERTAINLY...ANY CONVECTION THAT
DEVELOPS WILL BE ON THE STRONG SIDE WITH GUSTY WINDS LIKELY. WE
WILL STILL SEE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE TODAY...AND WITH THE OPPRESSIVE
HUMIDITY...WE WILL NEED A HEAT ADVISORY FOR ONE MORE DAY.
AS BOUNDARY APPROACHES TONIGHT...CONVECTION TO THE NORTH MAY MOVE
INTO THE AREA AND WILL CONTINUE WITH THE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
POPS.
AS THE BOUNDARY SETTLES INTO THE AREA ON MONDAY...WE WILL SEE THE
BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION IN QUITE A WHILE. HIGH MOISTURE
LEVELS WILL COMBINE WITH COOLING AT MIDLEVELS TO BRING AN UNSTABLE
AIRMASS...ALLOWING THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
THUNDERSTORMS. WILL GO WITH LIKELY POPS FOR MONDAY. CLOUDS AND
PRECIPITATION WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES LOWER THAN WE HAVE SEEN FOR
SEVERAL WEEKS...CLOSE TO NORMAL.
BOUNDARY REMAINS IN THE AREA FOR TUESDAY...AND WITH WEAKNESS IN
UPPER PATTERN...SCATTERED CONVECTION AGAIN EXPECTED TO DEVELOP. 35
&&
.LONG TERM...
WEAKNESS IN THE UPPER PATTERN REMAINS OVER THE AREA THROUGH NEXT
WEEKEND. TIMING OF IMPULSES AT THIS RANGE IS DIFFICULT...IF NOT
IMPOSSIBLE TO PINPOINT. EXPECT MAINLY DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION
FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD...WITH TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO CLIMATOLOGIC
NORMALS. 35
&&
.AVIATION...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSISTS THROUGH THE FORECAST BUT
ISLTD CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTN AS A FRONT SLOWLY
WORKS SOUTH THROUGH THE LOWER MS VALLEY. OUTSIDE OF CONVECTION VFR
CONDITIONS WILL RULE BUT ANY SITE THAT IS AFFECTED WILL SEE CIGS
AND VISBIES DROP FOR A SHORT TIME. CONFIDENCE IS NOT GREAT THAT
CONVECTION WILL LIKELY AFFECT ANY SITE SO I WILL JUST ADD VCTS FOR
LATE THIS AFTN AND EVN HRS BUT I WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY TEMPO GRIDS
FOR TSRA. /CAB/
&&
.MARINE...
WITH HIGH PRESSURE LEAVING THE GULF AND A FRONT APPROACHING FROM
THE NORTH...ONSHORE FLOW WILL PICK UP THROUGH THE NEXT 24-36 HRS
APPROACHING EXERCISE CAUTION OVER THE COASTAL WATERS TONIGHT. THE
INCREASE IN WINDS WILL ALSO SLOWLY INCREASE SEAS TO 3-5FT. AS FOR
CONVECTION ISLTD TSRA WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE TODAY AND TONIGHT
WITH CONVECTION INCREASING ON MON AS OUR FRONT APPROACHES THE
COAST. THIS FRONT WILL THEN STALL ACROSS THE COAST CAUSING WINDS
TO MAINLY REMAIN OUT OF THE WEST THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE
WEEK. CONVECTION WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH THE WEEK. /CAB/
New Orleans Local Weather thread - dkmac - 07-06-2009 06:39 AM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
326 AM CDT MON JUL 6 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI EARLY THIS MORNING
WITH A TRAILING FRONT TO THE DFW METROPLEX. DYING MCS MOVING
ACROSS SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI. CLOUD COVER BLANKETS MOST OF THE AREA
THIS MORNING...WITH TEMPERATURES REMAINING ABOVE NORMAL.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
RIDGE HAS BROKEN DOWN OVER THE AREA. WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWS A
STRING OF IMPULSES MOVING EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE AREA. ONE
IS MOVING JUST SOUTH OF JACKSON THIS MORNING...WITH THE NEXT NEAR
THE DFW METROPLEX AND ANOTHER MOVING INTO THE TEXAS PANHANDLE.
WITH A MOIST AIRMASS IN PLACE...THESE IMPULSES WILL AID IN THE
DEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION. EXPECT NEXT ROUND TO BE TRIGGERED MID
TO LATE AFTERNOON...WITH ANOTHER ROUND POSSIBLE TUESDAY
MORNING...AND A THIRD ROUND ON WEDNESDAY. DIURNAL HEATING WILL AID
IN THE DEVELOPMENT AS WELL...WITH MOST SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION TO
OCCUR IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS EACH DAY. CURRENTLY
ENOUGH DRY AIR ALOFT TO PERMIT ISOLATED DOWNBURSTS...BUT
WIDESPREAD SEVERE NOT ANTICIPATED.
WILL CONTINUE WITH THE LIKELY POPS FOR TODAY...AND MAINLY CHANCE
POPS BEYOND THAT. AS TIMING OF INDIVIDUAL IMPULSES GETS A LITTLE
BETTER...ANOTHER PERIOD OF LIKELY POPS MAY END UP BEING NECESSARY
AROUND WEDNESDAY. WITH CONSIDERABLY MORE CLOUD COVER THAN WHAT WE
HAVE SEEN RECENTLY...AND BETTER AREAL COVERAGE OF
PRECIPITATION...TEMPERATURES WILL RUN MUCH CLOSER TO NORMAL THAN
HAS BEEN THE CASE FOR SEVERAL WEEKS. 35
&&
.LONG TERM...
WEAKNESS IN UPPER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST
FRIDAY OR SATURDAY...WITH DIURNALLY BASED CONVECTION THE RULE FOR
THOSE DAYS. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS NOW INDICATE RIDGE TO OUR WEST
REBUILDING INTO THE AREA BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND. ECMWF WOULD
INDICATE THAT THE RETURN OF THE RIDGE WILL BE TEMPORARY BEFORE
RETREATING TO THE WEST AGAIN...WHILE THE GFS CENTERS IT MORE OVER
THE AREA. THESE DIFFERENCES OCCUR BEYOND THE SCOPE OF THIS
FORECAST.
GENERALLY CHANCE POPS DURING THE DAY WITH LITTLE OR NO POPS AT
NIGHT FOR THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. WILL TRIM POPS SOMEWHAT FOR
SUNDAY AND MONDAY...BUT NOT A DRY DAYTIME FORECAST QUITE YET. NEAR
NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TIL ABOUT SUNDAY...THEN ABOVE
NORMAL. SHOULD GFS SOLUTION VERIFY...TEMPS BY MIDWEEK NEXT WEEK
COULD GET RATHER TOASTY AGAIN...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS THAT DO NOT
GET SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. 35
&&
.AVIATION...
MCB HAS BASICALLY BEEN THE ONLY TAF SITE TO BE AFFECTED BY ANY
CONVECTION OVERNIGHT AS AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVED
INTO SWRN MS. THIS CAUSED MCB TO TEMPORARILY DROP INTO MVFR STATUS
BUT BOTH VISBIES AND CIGS HAVE SINCE BOUNCED BACK TO VFR. UNTIL
CONVECTION REDEVELOPS THIS AFTN VFR CONDITIONS WILL RULE THE DAY.
CONVECTION SHOULD REDEVELOP AND MOVE BACK INTO THE AREA THIS AFTN
AFFECTING BTR/MCB FIRST B/T 18-20Z AND THEN MSY AROUND 21Z AND GPT
AFTER THAT. ANY SHRA/TSRA THAT MOVES OVERHEAD WILL LIKELY CAUSE
BOTH VISBIES AND CIGS TO DROP. /CAB/
&&
.MARINE...
OUR BNDRY IS ALREADY STALLING ACROSS THE REGION. THIS WILL KEEP
WINDS OUT OF THE SW TO W THROUGH MID WEEK BEFORE ONSHORE FLOW
RETURNS. WINDS HAVE BEEN IN EXERCISE CAUTION RANGE THROUGHOUT THE
NIGHT OVER BOTH THE LAKES AND COASTAL WATERS AND IT LOOKS LIKE
THEY WILL REMAIN IN THAT 15-20KT RANGE THROUGH TODAY. WITH THAT I
HAVE EXTENDED THE EXERCISE CAUTION HEADLINE TILL 7PM AND ADDED THE
TIDAL LAKES TO IT. SEAS HAVE ALSO INCREASED TO 3-4FT AND SHOULD
RANGE FROM 3-5 THROUGH TONIGHT. WINDS WILL START TO SLACK OFF LATE
TONIGHT/TOMORROW AS THE BNDRY BEGINS TO LOSE ITS IDENTITY CAUSING
THE GRADIENT TO RELAX. AS FOR CONVECTION THINGS SHOULD REMAIN
QUIET THROUGH THE MORNING BUT ANOTHER DISTURBANCE IS ON THE WAY
AND THIS WILL LIKELY BRING SHRA AND TSRA OVER THE LAKES AND
COASTAL WATERS LATE THIS AFTN/EARLY THIS EVN. THEN ANOTHER
DISTURBANCE QUICKLY ON THE HEELS SHOULD BRING ANOTHER BAND OF
CONVECTION DURING THE OVERNIGHT HRS. /CAB/
New Orleans Local Weather thread - dkmac - 07-07-2009 04:20 AM
SHORT TERM FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
410 AM CDT TUE JUL 7 2009
GMZ530-LAZ040-MSZ077-080>082-071100-
HAN****-HARRISON-JACKSON-LAKES PONTCHARTRAIN AND MAUREPAS-
PEARL RIVER-ST TAMMANY-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...BILOXI...GULFPORT...PASCAGOULA...
PICAYUNE...SLIDELL
410 AM CDT TUE JUL 7 2009
.NOW...
THROUGH 6 AM CDT...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS
WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND MOVE OVER PORTIONS OF EXTREME
SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA AND COASTAL MISSISSIPPI. MOST OF THIS
ACTIVITY WILL MAINLY REMAIN OVER LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN...ST TAMMANY AND
THE MISSISSIPPI COAST BUT LOOK FOR RAIN TO EXPAND NORTHEASTWARD OVER
THE NEXT FEW HOURS. OCCASIONAL LIGHTNING AND BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS
WILL ACCOMPANY THIS ACTIVITY. RAINFALL RATES WILL MAINLY REMAIN BELOW
A FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH AN HOUR BUT THE STRONGER SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS COULD QUICKLY PRODUCE UP TO AN INCH OF RAIN IN A
SHORT TIME.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
325 AM CDT TUE JUL 7 2009
.SHORT TERM...
THROUGH WEDNESDAY...AREA REMAINS IN FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR
NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS
ORIENTED JUST NORTH OF THE REGION AND DEEP MOISTURE LOCATED TO SOUTH
OF THE BOUNDARY. CURRENT LIX SOUNDING AND MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOWS
DEEP MOISTURE PROFILE PERSISTING OVER AREA WITH PW IN THE 1.8 TO
2.0 INCH RANGE. SEVERAL WEAK SUBTLE DISTURBANCES IN WLY MID LEVEL
FLOW EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO INITIATE CONVECTION IN THE UNSTABLE
ENVIRONMENT. APPEARS THAT ONE DISTURBANCE IN TRAVERSING THE AREA
THIS MORNING. LOWERED POPS SOME THIS AFTERNOON AS DISTURBANCE
PUSHES EASTWARD. LATER TONIGHT AND EARLY WED...ANOTHER DISTURBANCE
IN MID LEVELS SHARPENS TROUGH AND WILL LIKELY CAUSE ANOTHER ROUND
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INTO EARLY WED BEFORE DIMINISHING.
BEST CHANCES OF RAIN THROUGH THE NEXT 36 HOURS WILL BE ALONG AND
SOUTH OF BTR TO PQL LINE IN DEEPER MOISTURE PROFILE...THOUGH
EXPECT SOME ACTIVITY TO SPILL INTO SW MS. GENERALLY WENT JUST A
BIT HIGHER THAN GFS MOS POPS. RAIN AND CLOUDS SHOULD HELP TO
MODERATE TEMPS TODAY AND WED...WENT CLOSE TO GUIDANCE.
.LONG TERM...
BEGINNING ON THURSDAY...UPPER RIDGE OVER NM AND W TX BEGINS TO
EXPAND NORTHEAST THROUGH THE END OF THE WEAK. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
INTO LATE WEEK INDICATE MID LEVELS BEGIN TO WARM AND DRIER UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF THE MID LEVEL ANTICYCLONE. SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM SHOULD DROP BACK TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL
LEVELS...OCCURRING MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. BEST RAIN
CHANCES WILL REMAIN IN COASTAL SE LA AND COASTAL MS..IN AREAS
FURTHEST FROM THE INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER RIDGE.
&&
.AVIATION...THE BIGGEST CONCERN TAF WISE IS CONVECTION BUT OUTSIDE
OF SHRA/TSRA THE ONLY OTHER ISSUE WILL BE MVFR CEILINGS. CONVECTION
IS ALREADY INCREASING ACROSS THE CWA AND ALL SITES WITH THE POSSIBLE
EXCEPTION OF MCB SHOULD SEE SOME ACTIVITY BY 12Z. RAIN WILL BE OFF
AND ON THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HRS BUT AS THE MORNING PROGRESSES
THERE WILL LIKELY BE A LARGE AREA OF SHRA/TSRA TO DEVELOP CAUSING A
FEW OF THE TAF`S TO REMAIN UNDER CONVECTION FOR A FEW HRS. OF COURSE
CIGS AND VISBIES WILL FALL INTO MVFR AND IFR STATUS WITH ANY
SHRA/TSRA BUT SOME OF THE STRONGER STORMS COULD CAUSE BRIEF LIFR
STATUS. CONVECTION WILL LINGER INTO THE AFTN AND THERE WILL LIKELY
BE ANOTHER LULL AS THE NEXT OF A SERIES OF WEAK DISTURBANCES MOVES
OUT OF THE AREA BEFORE ANOTHER ONE MOVES IN. /CAB/
&&
.MARINE...THE BNDRY REMAINS STALLED JUST NORTH OF THE COAST AND WILL
LIKELY REMAIN THIS WAY UNTIL IT FINALLY LOSES ITS IDENTITY TOMORROW
NIGHT. SOUTH OF THIS BNDRY OVER THE COASTAL WATERS PERSISTENT SWRLY
TO WRLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE WITH WINDS RIGHT AROUND EXERCISE CAUTION
CRITERIA. AS FOR CONVECTION SCATTERED SHRA AND TSRA QUICKLY
DEVELOPED JUST OFF THE MS COAST AND NEAR THE LAKES AFTER MIDNIGHT
AND FURTHER DEVELOPMENT WILL BE LIKELY ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE
INNER COASTAL WATERS THROUGH THE MORNING WITH CONVECTION EXPANDING
INTO THE OUTER WATERS LATER THIS MORNING. LOOK FOR ACTIVITY TO BEGIN
TO WANE SOME THIS AFTN BUT SCATTERED SHRA AND TSRA WILL BE POSSIBLE
THROUGH TOMORROW NIGHT. /CAB/