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New Orleans Local Weather thread - ROLLTIDE - 06-30-2009 03:26 AM SkyWarn Training Schedule
by NWS Forecast Office
Slidell, Louisiana
Severe Weather/Storm Spotter - Training SessionsBasic SkyWarn Training Session Sky Warn training session at Baton Rouge listed below has been postponed until a later date this summer Please check this web page late for updated times. Thank you. When: 6:00PM - 8:00PM Tuesday - June 30, 2009 Where: Advanced Traffic Management - Emergency Operations Center 3773 Harding Ave Baton Rouge, LA 70087 Local Sponsor - Baton Rouge Mayor's Office of Homeland Security and Emergency Management Visit this web page for additional information on the course or contact Wil White - 225-389-2100 NWS Contact - Frank Revitte, 985-649-0357 x 223. Continue to check this page for upcoming sessions. New Orleans Local Weather thread - dkmac - 06-30-2009 06:23 AM AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA 420 AM CDT TUE JUN 30 2009 .DISCUSSION... LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED A STATIONARY BOUNDARY STRADDLING THE CENTRAL GULF COAST. NORTH WINDS WERE NOTED AT MCB AND PIB AND DEWPOINT READINGS WERE IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S ACROSS SOUTH MISSISSIPPI BACK TOWARD ALABAMA AND GEORGIA. UPPER AIR ANALYSIS AND IR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED THE LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND NORTHWEST FLOW FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS TO SOUTHEAST CONUS. INITIAL PW PLOTS SHOWED VALUES AROUND 2 INCHES ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE FRONT AND A SHARP GRADIENT FROM 1.8 INCHES TO 1 INCH WAS FROM EAST CENTRAL LOUISIANA AND WEST CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI. THIS GRADIENT IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT SOUTH TODAY. GFS AND NAM BRINGS PW VALUES LESS THAN 1.2 INCHES ACROSS THE NORTH HALF OF FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING...SO LIMITED CHANCE OF CONVECTION MOST OF THE AREA TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. TEMPS WILL WARM ABOVE NORM TODAY AND ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY BUT DEWPOINT READINGS WILL REMAIN NEAR OR BELOW 70F THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING. SURFACE RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE EAST HALF OF THE GULF THURSDAY AND YIELD A SOUTH FLOW ACROSS THE AREA BEGINNING THURSDAY. PW VALUES WILL SLOWLY INCREASE INTO 1.5 TO 1.7 INCHES THURSDAY AND INCREASING TO NEAR 2 INCHES FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. SURFACE HEATING AND DEEP MOISTURE WILL YIELD CONVECTION BUT NOT ORGANIZED FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. SEVERAL WAVES IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW WILL POOL MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY AND MEANDER A FRONTAL BOUNDARY JUST NORTH OF THE AREA NEXT WEEK...ACCORDING TO GFS. ECMWF SHOWED THE RIDGE REBUILDING OVER THE AREA STARTING SAT. WILL LEAN TO GFS AND MAINTAIN CHANCE POPS FOR THE WEEKEND AND NEXT WEEK. STRONGER STORMS ARE POSSIBLE SUNDAY IN THE STRONGER NORTHWEST FLOW. && .AVIATION... AVIATION... ...12Z TAF ISSUANCE... A LAYER OF UPPER LEVEL(BKN200) CLOUDS MIXED WITH SCT AT TIMES WILL PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. MCB SHOULD HAVE SOME LIGHT BR DEVELOP NEAR SUNRISE. OTHERWISE...VFR WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE BOARD THROUGH THE PERIOD. PRESSURE GRADIENT IS ALMOST NONEXISTENT SO WINDS SHOULD BE WEAK. SHOULD NOT SEE TS WORDING TODAY AS THE FRONTAL TROUGH HAS SLIPPED TO NEAR THE COAST. && MARINE... A WEAK FRONTAL TROUGH HAS STALLED NEAR THE COAST. THIS BOUNDARY WILL PROVIDE A FOCAL FOR SH/TS TO DEVELOP ALONG THROUGH THE NEXT FEW DAYS. DEEP MOISTURE WILL RETURN ON SOUTHERLY WINDS BY THE END OF THE WEEK AS ANOTHER WEAK FRONT MOVES TOWARD THE GULF COAST AND STALLS BY THE END OF THE WEEK. New Orleans Local Weather thread - Southernbelle - 06-30-2009 09:24 AM The rain made it a little 'cooler' this morning. New Orleans Local Weather thread - dkmac - 07-01-2009 06:28 AM AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA 434 AM CDT WED JUL 1 2009 .DISCUSSION... LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS CONTINUE TO SHOW 50S AND 60S DEWPOINT FIELDS FROM THE CAROLINAS TO EAST CENTRAL LOUISIANA...70S ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI COAST AND SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA. THE DEWPOINT GRADIENT WAS NOTED JUST NORTH OF I-10 IN MISSISSIPPI AND NORTH OF I-12 IN LOUISIANA...GENERALLY THE SAME VICINITY OF THE OLD BOUNDARY. ANKLE DEEP MOISTURE WILL BE PRONED TO MIX OUT DURING THE EACH AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY. 00Z SOUNDING SHOWED A VERY DRY LAYER FROM 800MB TO 650MB. UPPER LEVEL HIGH OUT WEST WILL SLOWLY APPROACH THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND NORTHWEST FLOW ON THE EDGES WILL MAINTAIN A FEW DRY LAYERS ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY. ERGO...BELIEVE DRY AIR MIXING OUT TO THE SURFACE WILL LIKELY OCCUR ACROSS SOUTH MISSISSIPPI AND EAST CENTRAL LOUISIANA THROUGH FRIDAY. IN ADDITION...ABOVE NORMAL AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS PERIOD. OVER THE WEEKEND...RIDGE WILL SLOWLY MOVE TOWARD THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BUT SLOWLY BREAKDOWN MONDAY. GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN AGREEMENT WITH A WAVE APPROACHING THE CENTRAL GULF COAST FROM THE NORTHWEST MID NEXT WEEK. WILL PUSH HIGHER RAIN CHANCES FOR NEXT WEEK AND MAINTAIN ABOVE NORM AFTERNOON TEMPS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. && AVIATION... /PRELIMINARY 12Z TAF ISSUANCE/ VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY. SOME BKN120 DECKS DURING THE MORNING SHOULD BE OUT BY NOON. && MARINE... A WEAK FRONTAL TROUGH WILL SAG SOUTHWARD TODAY WHILE THE BERMUDA HIGH STRENGTHENS ITS POSITION OVER THE GULF. THE GRADIENT BETWEEN THESE TWO FEATURES WILL TIGHTEN CAUSING WIND SPEEDS TO INCREASE OVER NIGHT TONIGHT. A COASTAL JET WILL ALSO DEVELOP ON THE MAINLAND SIDE OF BARRIER ISLANDS. BY THE END OF THE WEEK...EXPECT SOUTHERLY FLOW TO RETURN TO THE AREA AND BEGIN BRINGING MOISTURE BACK TO THE AREA. ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS ALSO FORECAST TO MOVE TOWARD THE AREA AND STALL NEAR THE COAST TOWARD WEEKS END. SOME TS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER A PORTION OF THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE HIGHER IN AN AROUND THESE TS. New Orleans Local Weather thread - dkmac - 07-02-2009 06:03 AM AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA 344 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2009 .SHORT TERM... THE STRONG AND PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL BEGIN TO PULL TO THE EAST THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. AS THE TROUGH PULLS TO THE EAST...STRONG MID AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL EXPAND TO THE EAST...AND ONCE AGAIN OVERSPREAD THE GULF SOUTH. AS A RESULT...EXPECT VERY WARM AND MUGGY CONDITIONS THROUGH SUNDAY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. TEMPERATURES SHOULD CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 90S AND LOWER 100S...WITH RECORD HIGHS THREATENED AT BTR AND MSY. FORTUNATELY...THE AIRMASS ALOFT IS FAIRLY DRY...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME LOWER DEWPOINTS DURING THE PEAK HEATING HOURS. THIS SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR MIXING DOWN TO THE SURFACE WILL KEEP HEAT INDICES AROUND 105 TO 110 THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THESE LOWER DEWPOINTS HAVE ALSO LED ME TO HOLD OFF ON ISSUING ANY HEAT ADVISORIES FOR TODAY AND TOMORROW. THERE IS A VERY SLIGHT CHANCE FOR LATE AFTERNOON CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT EACH DAY...AS A WEAK CONVERGENCE ZONE IS EXPECTED ALONG THE SEABREEZE FRONT. HOWEVER...WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE ALOFT AND AMPLE DRY AIR IN THE MID-LEVELS...CREATING A FAIRLY SUBSTANTIAL CAP...IT WILL BE HARD PRESSED TO SEE ANY SUBSTANTIAL CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ONLY IF THE CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURE IS ACQUIRED...AND SOME ENHANCED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE POOLING TAKES HOLD ALONG THE SEABREEZE BOUNDARY SHOULD WE EXPECT TO SEE ANY THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. .LONG TERM... HEADING INTO NEXT WEEK...BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS DEPICT A FAIRLY VIGOROUS TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE NATION...FORCING THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TO BECOME MORE NORTH-SOUTH ORIENTED OVER TEXAS. THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION WILL GENERALLY STAY ON THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THIS RIDGE ALLOWING FOR AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF DEEP NORTHWEST FLOW. ALONG WITH THE LOWER HEIGHTS AND GREATER LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE MAIN LONGWAVE TROUGH AXIS...A SERIES OF IMPULSES ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SHOULD SLIP THROUGH THE GULF SOUTH. THESE IMPULSES WILL SERVE TO ENHANCE THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL OMEGA ACROSS THE AREA...ALLOWING FOR HIGHER CHANCES OF CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT THROUGHOUT NEXT WEEK. IT APPEARS THAT THE STRONGEST OF THESE IMPULSES SHOULD MOVE THROUGH ON TUESDAY...AND HAVE PUT IN THE HIGHEST POPS FOR THIS TIME FRAME. DUE TO THE EXPECTED CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY AND ASSOCIATED CIRRUS BLOWOFF...TEMPERATURES SHOULD ALSO BE NEAR OR EVEN SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL FROM TUESDAY INTO THE END OF THE WEEK. && .AVIATION... VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE. SOME MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUD DECKS WILL BE AROUND ESPECIALLY DURING THE MORNING HOURS. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND MOSTLY OUT OF THE WEST. SOME LIGHT PATCHY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE EARLY IN THE MORNING AT MCB. 35 && .MARINE... WEST WINDS WILL GIVE WAY TO SOUTHERLY FLOW AND BEGIN BRINGING MOISTURE BACK INTO THE AREA BY THE WEEKEND. ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO MOVE TOWARD THE AREA AND STALL NEAR THE COAST BY MONDAY NIGHT. CURRENTLY...NO FLAGS ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH WINDS GENERALLY LESS THAN 15 KNOTS AND SEAS 3 FEET OR LESS. 35 New Orleans Local Weather thread - dkmac - 07-03-2009 06:27 AM AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA 401 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2009 .SHORT TERM... THE HOT WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A HEAT ADVISORY WILL BE IN EFFECT TODAY FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA AND WILL LIKELY NEED TO BE EXTENDED INTO SATURDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY IN THE UPPER 90S TO LOWER 100S WILL COMBINE WITH DEW POINTS RANGING FROM THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S TO PRODUCE HEAT INDEX VALUES AROUND 105 DEGREES OR SLIGHTLY HIGHER THIS AFTERNOON. SIMILAR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES MAY BE A BIT LOWER SUNDAY BUT HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL LIKELY BE A LITTLE HIGHER. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION LATE YESTERDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING PROVIDED NEEDED RAINFALL TO SOME AREAS AND PROVIDED RELIEF FROM THE HEAT FOR SOME LOCATIONS. THIS CONVECTION WAS FOCUSED IN THE VICINITY OF A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY THAT REMAINS DRAPED ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING. THIS BOUNDARY MAY BE THE FOCUS FOR CONVECTION AGAIN LATE TODAY AS IT SLIPS A LITTLE FARTHER TO THE SOUTH TOWARD COASTAL AREAS...HOWEVER INCREASED MID LEVEL RIDGING FORECAST BY MODELS TODAY AND LESS IN THE WAY OF UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE WILL LIKELY MEAN ONLY ISOLATED CONVECTION AT BEST. ANY CONVECTION THAT DOES DEVELOP...HOWEVER...COULD BE STRONG AND PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS. 11 .LONG TERM... MODELS ARE FORECASTING A TREND TOWARD MORE TYPICAL TEMPERATURES AND RAIN CHANCES FOR THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK. THIS WILL COME ABOUT AS THE PERSISTENT MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE REGION BREAKS DOWN AND SHIFTS TO THE WEST WHILE AN UPPER TROUGH MOVES EASTWARD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND THE NORTHEAST CONUS. A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAY PUSH SOUTH TOWARD THE REGION DURING THE EARLY TO MID PART OF NEXT WEEK SERVING AS A FOCUS FOR MORE CONVECTION. THIS IN COMBINATION WITH WEAK DISTURBANCES SHOULD RESULT IN SCATTERED CONVECTION EACH DAY NEXT WEEK. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS TO THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH OF THE REGION LATE NEXT WEEK. 11 && .AVIATION... VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS THE AREA...BUT THE CHANCES OF RAIN AT ANY GIVEN LOCATION REMAIN TOO LOW TO MENTION IN ANY PARTICULAR TAF SET. THE PROBLEM WILL OBVIOUSLY BE IF A TS AFFECTS ONE OF THE TERMINALS...AS TEMPS SOAR INTO THE UPPER 90S AND LOWER 100S...THE POTENTIAL WILL BE FOR ANY ONE TS TO CONTAIN STRONG WIND SPEEDS AND HAIL. SOME 3-4SM BR OVER THE BTR TERMINAL MAY OCCUR THIS MORNING FROM RAINFALL YESTERDAY EVENING BUT SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE THE IFR VIS RANGE. 35 && .MARINE... EXPECT WINDS TO REMAIN GENERALLY IN THE 5 TO 10 KT RANGE WITH SEAS OF 1 TO 2 FEET THROUGH THE FOURTH OF JULY HOLIDAY. AS A WEAK FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA NEXT WORK WEEK...WIND SPEEDS WILL INCREASE SLIGHTLY WITH SEAS ALSO BUILDING IN RESPONSE. DO NOT ANTICIPATE ANY HEADLINES AT THIS TIME...BUT MARINERS SHOULD BE AWARE THAT AS THE FRONT STALLS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS...THERE WILL BE ENHANCED CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE HIGHER IN THE VICINITY OF ANY THUNDERSTORMS. 35 New Orleans Local Weather thread - dkmac - 07-04-2009 05:18 AM AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA 335 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2009 ...ANOTHER HOT DAY EXPECTED FOR YOUR INDEPENDENCE DAY CELEBRATIONS... .SHORT TERM...IT LOOKS LIKE WE STILL HAVE A FEW MORE DAYS OF HOT CONDITIONS FOR THE CWA BUT GOOD NEWS IS WE SHOULD BE SEEING A PATTERN SHIFT FOR OUR AREA WHICH WILL BRING COOLER TEMPS AND MUCH BETTER RAIN CHANCES. TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...THINGS WILL REMAIN MOSTLY QUIET AND HOT WITH THE MID LVL RIDGE STILL DOMINATING THE REGION. TEMPS OVERNIGHT HAVE BEEN JUST UNBEARABLE WITH MANY LOCATIONS STILL ABV 80 DEGREES BY 8Z. MORNING LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S WITH HEAT INDEX READINGS STILL IN THE 90S. YOUR INDEPENDENCE DAY WILL ALREADY START OFF HOT BUT AS SOON AS THE SUN COMES UP TEMPS WILL BEGIN TO CLIMB QUICKLY. H85 TEMPS WILL STILL BE AROUND 21C SO THERE IS NO REASON WE SHOULDN`T SEE MID TO UPPER 90S WIDESPREAD ONCE AGAIN AND THIS WILL CAUSE HEAT INDICIES TO RANGE FROM 105-110 AGAIN THIS AFTN. WITH THIS WE WILL DEFINITELY NEED TO HAVE ANOTHER HEAT ADV OUT. AS FOR CONVECTION...MID LVL TEMPS ROSE QUITE A BIT YESTERDAY AFTN FROM -8 TO -5C AND WITH THAT MUCH WARMING CONVECTION HAD A MUCH HARDER TIME YESTERDAY. WELL MID LVL TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN AROUND -5C AND WITH THE RIDGE OVER THE AREA CONVECTION SHOULD BE EVEN HARDER TO COME BY TODAY. AS WE HEAD INTO SUN WE WILL START TO SEE THE RIDGE BEGIN TO BREAK DOWN. LL TEMPS WILL BE A TAD COOLER SO HIGHS MAY ONLY GET INTO THE MID 90S. IN ADDITION TO THAT WITH THE RIDGE STARTING TO ERODE OVER THE AREA AND ABUNDANT MOISTURE IN PLACE(PWS 1.75-2") ISLTD TO SCT CONVECTION WILL HAVE A BETTER CHANCE SUN AFTN. RAIN CHANCES WILL ACTUALLY START TO INCREASE OVERNIGHT AS THE RIDGE FURTHER ERODES AND THE FIRST OF WHICH COULD BE SEVERAL SUBTLE IMPULSES BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE CWA. .LONG TERM...SURPRISINGLY THERE IS VERY GOOD AGREEMENT B/T THE GFS AND ECMWF WITH THE EXTENDED FCST. BOTH MDLS SHOW THE RIDGE COMPLETELY BREAKING DOWN OVER OUR AREA AND BEING REPLACED BY A WEAK TROUGH. THE MDLS HAD BEEN ADVERTISING THIS SHIFT FROM THE HOT AND MOSTLY DRY TO MORE OF A NORMAL TEMP AND ABV NORMAL POP FCST FOR A FEW DAYS NOW SO CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING AND WE SHOULD FINALLY BREAK OUT OF THIS HEAT AND START TO RELIEVE SOME OF THE DROUGHT COME EARLY NEXT WEEK. AS THE RIDGE FURTHER ERODES AND IS DISPLACED TO THE WE WILL START TO SEE A FEW IMPULSES MOVE THROUGH THE REGION. BY MID WEEK A WEAKNESS/TROUGH WILL ACTUALLY START TO DEVELOP DIRECTLY OVERHEAD WITH THE TROUGH CLOSING OFF AND INTO A CLOSED LOW BY THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. THIS WILL REALLY INCREASE THE RAIN CHANCES NEXT WEEK COMPARED TO WHAT WE HAVE SEEN FOR THE PAST MONTH. MOISTURE WILL BE IN SURPLUS WITH PWS AT OR EVEN ABV 2" THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK. LL MOISTURE WILL ALSO BE IN ABUNDANCE WITH H85 THETA E VALUES RANGING FROM 335-345K. WITH THIS MUCH MOISTURE INTO WILL ONLY TAKE VERY SUBTLE INFLUENCES TO HELP DEVELOP CONVECTION AND THAT WILL ACTUALLY BE THE MOST DIFFICULT PART OF THE FCST. TIMING OR EVEN FINDING THE LITTLE SUBTLE FEATURES IS HARD ENOUGH A DAY TO EVEN A FEW HOURS OUT BUT 3 TO 7 DAYS OUT IS PRACTICALLY IMPOSSIBLE. WITH THAT I WILL NOT GET TO CUTE WITH TIMING AND JUST MAINLY SHOW SCT CONVECTION THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED FCST BUT THERE WILL OF COURSE BE BREAKS IN THE CONVECTION. AS FOR TEMPS LL TEMPS WILL COOL NICELY(H85 TEMPS DOWN FROM 21-22C TO MORE LIKE 18-19C). THIS WILL LEAD TO AFTN HIGHS BEING QUITE A BIT COOLER RANGING FROM THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S. THIS WILL BE A VERY WELCOME SITE ESPECIALLY FOR PLACES LIKE BATON ROUGE AND MCCOMB WHICH BY MON WILL NOT HAVE SEEN AFTN HIGHS BELOW 95 DEGREES IN 20 DAYS. MORNING LOWS WILL STILL BE ON THE WARM END THOUGH THANKS TO ALL OF THE MOISTURE EXPECTED. AS FOR DEVIATIONS TO GUI THE MAIN CHANGES WERE TO GO A DEGREE OR TWO ABV MEX FOR BOTH HIGHS AND LOWS ON A FEW DAYS BUT I HAVE BASICALLY JUST STUCK WITH THE MEX POPS VALUES. /CAB/ && .AVIATION... CONTINUE VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH SUNDAY FOR MOST AREAS. CERTAINLY POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT DURING THE HEAT OF THE AFTERNOON...BUT AREAL EXTENT WILL BE EXTREMELY SMALL...AND WILL NOT BE MENTIONED IN THE TAFS. ANY HZ/BR WILL BE LIMITED TO A FEW HOURS AROUND SUNRISE...RIGHT NOW...IT APPEARS BEST POSSIBILITY WOULD BE GPT...BUT THREAT NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO MENTION YET. CONVECTIVE CHANCES AND POTENTIAL AVIATION RESTRICTIONS MAY START CREEPING INTO THE FORECAST BY LATE AFTERNOON SUNDAY. 35 && .MARINE... A RESIDUAL FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS MOVED LITTLE FROM THE SOUTHERN LA COASTAL PARISHES...EXTENDING INTO THE NORTHERN GULF. SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY DRIFT SEWD THROUGH THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THEREFORE...NOT ANY SIGNIFICANT CHANGES THROUGH THAT TIME PERIOD. HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP ONSHORE FLOW OF 5 TO 15 KTS THRU MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL PERSIST FOR MOST AFTERNOONS BEGINNING ON MONDAY. 35 New Orleans Local Weather thread - dkmac - 07-05-2009 06:17 AM AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA 324 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2009 .SYNOPSIS... LOW PRESSURE THIS MORNING NEAR THE CONFLUENCE OF THE OHIO AND MISSISSIPPI RIVERS WITH A TRAILING FRONT TO NEAR THE DFW METROPLEX. CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT EXTENDS FROM NEAR NASHVILLE...TO LITTLE ROCK...TO NORTH TEXAS. OTHER THAN A FEW CIRRUS...WEATHER ACROSS OUR AREA IS QUIET AT 08Z. HUMID WEATHER CONTINUES WITH DEW POINTS IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 70S...AND TEMPERATURES GENERALLY STILL IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 80S AT PRESS TIME. && .SHORT TERM... LOOKS LIKE ONE MORE DAY OF OPPRESSIVE CONDITIONS BEFORE SOME RELIEF ARRIVES. UPPER RIDGE BREAKING DOWN OR DRIFTING WEST...ALLOWING UPPER FLOW TO BECOME SOMEWHAT NORTHWESTERLY. BOUNDARY WILL TAKE 24 TO 36 HOURS TO REACH THE AREA. AS HAS BEEN THE CASE THE LAST FEW DAYS...VERY ISOLATED CONVECTION MAY DEVELOP DURING THE HEAT OF THE AFTERNOON. WILL CARRY MENTION OF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS...BUT THAT IS PROBABLY OVERKILL ON POPS. CERTAINLY...ANY CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS WILL BE ON THE STRONG SIDE WITH GUSTY WINDS LIKELY. WE WILL STILL SEE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE TODAY...AND WITH THE OPPRESSIVE HUMIDITY...WE WILL NEED A HEAT ADVISORY FOR ONE MORE DAY. AS BOUNDARY APPROACHES TONIGHT...CONVECTION TO THE NORTH MAY MOVE INTO THE AREA AND WILL CONTINUE WITH THE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED POPS. AS THE BOUNDARY SETTLES INTO THE AREA ON MONDAY...WE WILL SEE THE BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION IN QUITE A WHILE. HIGH MOISTURE LEVELS WILL COMBINE WITH COOLING AT MIDLEVELS TO BRING AN UNSTABLE AIRMASS...ALLOWING THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS. WILL GO WITH LIKELY POPS FOR MONDAY. CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES LOWER THAN WE HAVE SEEN FOR SEVERAL WEEKS...CLOSE TO NORMAL. BOUNDARY REMAINS IN THE AREA FOR TUESDAY...AND WITH WEAKNESS IN UPPER PATTERN...SCATTERED CONVECTION AGAIN EXPECTED TO DEVELOP. 35 && .LONG TERM... WEAKNESS IN THE UPPER PATTERN REMAINS OVER THE AREA THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. TIMING OF IMPULSES AT THIS RANGE IS DIFFICULT...IF NOT IMPOSSIBLE TO PINPOINT. EXPECT MAINLY DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD...WITH TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO CLIMATOLOGIC NORMALS. 35 && .AVIATION... MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSISTS THROUGH THE FORECAST BUT ISLTD CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTN AS A FRONT SLOWLY WORKS SOUTH THROUGH THE LOWER MS VALLEY. OUTSIDE OF CONVECTION VFR CONDITIONS WILL RULE BUT ANY SITE THAT IS AFFECTED WILL SEE CIGS AND VISBIES DROP FOR A SHORT TIME. CONFIDENCE IS NOT GREAT THAT CONVECTION WILL LIKELY AFFECT ANY SITE SO I WILL JUST ADD VCTS FOR LATE THIS AFTN AND EVN HRS BUT I WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY TEMPO GRIDS FOR TSRA. /CAB/ && .MARINE... WITH HIGH PRESSURE LEAVING THE GULF AND A FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTH...ONSHORE FLOW WILL PICK UP THROUGH THE NEXT 24-36 HRS APPROACHING EXERCISE CAUTION OVER THE COASTAL WATERS TONIGHT. THE INCREASE IN WINDS WILL ALSO SLOWLY INCREASE SEAS TO 3-5FT. AS FOR CONVECTION ISLTD TSRA WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH CONVECTION INCREASING ON MON AS OUR FRONT APPROACHES THE COAST. THIS FRONT WILL THEN STALL ACROSS THE COAST CAUSING WINDS TO MAINLY REMAIN OUT OF THE WEST THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK. CONVECTION WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH THE WEEK. /CAB/ New Orleans Local Weather thread - dkmac - 07-06-2009 06:39 AM AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA 326 AM CDT MON JUL 6 2009 .SYNOPSIS... WEAK LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI EARLY THIS MORNING WITH A TRAILING FRONT TO THE DFW METROPLEX. DYING MCS MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI. CLOUD COVER BLANKETS MOST OF THE AREA THIS MORNING...WITH TEMPERATURES REMAINING ABOVE NORMAL. && .SHORT TERM... RIDGE HAS BROKEN DOWN OVER THE AREA. WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWS A STRING OF IMPULSES MOVING EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE AREA. ONE IS MOVING JUST SOUTH OF JACKSON THIS MORNING...WITH THE NEXT NEAR THE DFW METROPLEX AND ANOTHER MOVING INTO THE TEXAS PANHANDLE. WITH A MOIST AIRMASS IN PLACE...THESE IMPULSES WILL AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION. EXPECT NEXT ROUND TO BE TRIGGERED MID TO LATE AFTERNOON...WITH ANOTHER ROUND POSSIBLE TUESDAY MORNING...AND A THIRD ROUND ON WEDNESDAY. DIURNAL HEATING WILL AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT AS WELL...WITH MOST SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION TO OCCUR IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS EACH DAY. CURRENTLY ENOUGH DRY AIR ALOFT TO PERMIT ISOLATED DOWNBURSTS...BUT WIDESPREAD SEVERE NOT ANTICIPATED. WILL CONTINUE WITH THE LIKELY POPS FOR TODAY...AND MAINLY CHANCE POPS BEYOND THAT. AS TIMING OF INDIVIDUAL IMPULSES GETS A LITTLE BETTER...ANOTHER PERIOD OF LIKELY POPS MAY END UP BEING NECESSARY AROUND WEDNESDAY. WITH CONSIDERABLY MORE CLOUD COVER THAN WHAT WE HAVE SEEN RECENTLY...AND BETTER AREAL COVERAGE OF PRECIPITATION...TEMPERATURES WILL RUN MUCH CLOSER TO NORMAL THAN HAS BEEN THE CASE FOR SEVERAL WEEKS. 35 && .LONG TERM... WEAKNESS IN UPPER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY OR SATURDAY...WITH DIURNALLY BASED CONVECTION THE RULE FOR THOSE DAYS. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS NOW INDICATE RIDGE TO OUR WEST REBUILDING INTO THE AREA BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND. ECMWF WOULD INDICATE THAT THE RETURN OF THE RIDGE WILL BE TEMPORARY BEFORE RETREATING TO THE WEST AGAIN...WHILE THE GFS CENTERS IT MORE OVER THE AREA. THESE DIFFERENCES OCCUR BEYOND THE SCOPE OF THIS FORECAST. GENERALLY CHANCE POPS DURING THE DAY WITH LITTLE OR NO POPS AT NIGHT FOR THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. WILL TRIM POPS SOMEWHAT FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY...BUT NOT A DRY DAYTIME FORECAST QUITE YET. NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TIL ABOUT SUNDAY...THEN ABOVE NORMAL. SHOULD GFS SOLUTION VERIFY...TEMPS BY MIDWEEK NEXT WEEK COULD GET RATHER TOASTY AGAIN...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS THAT DO NOT GET SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. 35 && .AVIATION... MCB HAS BASICALLY BEEN THE ONLY TAF SITE TO BE AFFECTED BY ANY CONVECTION OVERNIGHT AS AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVED INTO SWRN MS. THIS CAUSED MCB TO TEMPORARILY DROP INTO MVFR STATUS BUT BOTH VISBIES AND CIGS HAVE SINCE BOUNCED BACK TO VFR. UNTIL CONVECTION REDEVELOPS THIS AFTN VFR CONDITIONS WILL RULE THE DAY. CONVECTION SHOULD REDEVELOP AND MOVE BACK INTO THE AREA THIS AFTN AFFECTING BTR/MCB FIRST B/T 18-20Z AND THEN MSY AROUND 21Z AND GPT AFTER THAT. ANY SHRA/TSRA THAT MOVES OVERHEAD WILL LIKELY CAUSE BOTH VISBIES AND CIGS TO DROP. /CAB/ && .MARINE... OUR BNDRY IS ALREADY STALLING ACROSS THE REGION. THIS WILL KEEP WINDS OUT OF THE SW TO W THROUGH MID WEEK BEFORE ONSHORE FLOW RETURNS. WINDS HAVE BEEN IN EXERCISE CAUTION RANGE THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT OVER BOTH THE LAKES AND COASTAL WATERS AND IT LOOKS LIKE THEY WILL REMAIN IN THAT 15-20KT RANGE THROUGH TODAY. WITH THAT I HAVE EXTENDED THE EXERCISE CAUTION HEADLINE TILL 7PM AND ADDED THE TIDAL LAKES TO IT. SEAS HAVE ALSO INCREASED TO 3-4FT AND SHOULD RANGE FROM 3-5 THROUGH TONIGHT. WINDS WILL START TO SLACK OFF LATE TONIGHT/TOMORROW AS THE BNDRY BEGINS TO LOSE ITS IDENTITY CAUSING THE GRADIENT TO RELAX. AS FOR CONVECTION THINGS SHOULD REMAIN QUIET THROUGH THE MORNING BUT ANOTHER DISTURBANCE IS ON THE WAY AND THIS WILL LIKELY BRING SHRA AND TSRA OVER THE LAKES AND COASTAL WATERS LATE THIS AFTN/EARLY THIS EVN. THEN ANOTHER DISTURBANCE QUICKLY ON THE HEELS SHOULD BRING ANOTHER BAND OF CONVECTION DURING THE OVERNIGHT HRS. /CAB/ New Orleans Local Weather thread - dkmac - 07-07-2009 04:20 AM SHORT TERM FORECAST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA 410 AM CDT TUE JUL 7 2009 GMZ530-LAZ040-MSZ077-080>082-071100- HAN****-HARRISON-JACKSON-LAKES PONTCHARTRAIN AND MAUREPAS- PEARL RIVER-ST TAMMANY- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...BILOXI...GULFPORT...PASCAGOULA... PICAYUNE...SLIDELL 410 AM CDT TUE JUL 7 2009 .NOW... THROUGH 6 AM CDT...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND MOVE OVER PORTIONS OF EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA AND COASTAL MISSISSIPPI. MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL MAINLY REMAIN OVER LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN...ST TAMMANY AND THE MISSISSIPPI COAST BUT LOOK FOR RAIN TO EXPAND NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. OCCASIONAL LIGHTNING AND BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL ACCOMPANY THIS ACTIVITY. RAINFALL RATES WILL MAINLY REMAIN BELOW A FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH AN HOUR BUT THE STRONGER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COULD QUICKLY PRODUCE UP TO AN INCH OF RAIN IN A SHORT TIME. AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA 325 AM CDT TUE JUL 7 2009 .SHORT TERM... THROUGH WEDNESDAY...AREA REMAINS IN FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS ORIENTED JUST NORTH OF THE REGION AND DEEP MOISTURE LOCATED TO SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY. CURRENT LIX SOUNDING AND MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOWS DEEP MOISTURE PROFILE PERSISTING OVER AREA WITH PW IN THE 1.8 TO 2.0 INCH RANGE. SEVERAL WEAK SUBTLE DISTURBANCES IN WLY MID LEVEL FLOW EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO INITIATE CONVECTION IN THE UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT. APPEARS THAT ONE DISTURBANCE IN TRAVERSING THE AREA THIS MORNING. LOWERED POPS SOME THIS AFTERNOON AS DISTURBANCE PUSHES EASTWARD. LATER TONIGHT AND EARLY WED...ANOTHER DISTURBANCE IN MID LEVELS SHARPENS TROUGH AND WILL LIKELY CAUSE ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INTO EARLY WED BEFORE DIMINISHING. BEST CHANCES OF RAIN THROUGH THE NEXT 36 HOURS WILL BE ALONG AND SOUTH OF BTR TO PQL LINE IN DEEPER MOISTURE PROFILE...THOUGH EXPECT SOME ACTIVITY TO SPILL INTO SW MS. GENERALLY WENT JUST A BIT HIGHER THAN GFS MOS POPS. RAIN AND CLOUDS SHOULD HELP TO MODERATE TEMPS TODAY AND WED...WENT CLOSE TO GUIDANCE. .LONG TERM... BEGINNING ON THURSDAY...UPPER RIDGE OVER NM AND W TX BEGINS TO EXPAND NORTHEAST THROUGH THE END OF THE WEAK. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INTO LATE WEEK INDICATE MID LEVELS BEGIN TO WARM AND DRIER UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE MID LEVEL ANTICYCLONE. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM SHOULD DROP BACK TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL LEVELS...OCCURRING MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. BEST RAIN CHANCES WILL REMAIN IN COASTAL SE LA AND COASTAL MS..IN AREAS FURTHEST FROM THE INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER RIDGE. && .AVIATION...THE BIGGEST CONCERN TAF WISE IS CONVECTION BUT OUTSIDE OF SHRA/TSRA THE ONLY OTHER ISSUE WILL BE MVFR CEILINGS. CONVECTION IS ALREADY INCREASING ACROSS THE CWA AND ALL SITES WITH THE POSSIBLE EXCEPTION OF MCB SHOULD SEE SOME ACTIVITY BY 12Z. RAIN WILL BE OFF AND ON THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HRS BUT AS THE MORNING PROGRESSES THERE WILL LIKELY BE A LARGE AREA OF SHRA/TSRA TO DEVELOP CAUSING A FEW OF THE TAF`S TO REMAIN UNDER CONVECTION FOR A FEW HRS. OF COURSE CIGS AND VISBIES WILL FALL INTO MVFR AND IFR STATUS WITH ANY SHRA/TSRA BUT SOME OF THE STRONGER STORMS COULD CAUSE BRIEF LIFR STATUS. CONVECTION WILL LINGER INTO THE AFTN AND THERE WILL LIKELY BE ANOTHER LULL AS THE NEXT OF A SERIES OF WEAK DISTURBANCES MOVES OUT OF THE AREA BEFORE ANOTHER ONE MOVES IN. /CAB/ && .MARINE...THE BNDRY REMAINS STALLED JUST NORTH OF THE COAST AND WILL LIKELY REMAIN THIS WAY UNTIL IT FINALLY LOSES ITS IDENTITY TOMORROW NIGHT. SOUTH OF THIS BNDRY OVER THE COASTAL WATERS PERSISTENT SWRLY TO WRLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE WITH WINDS RIGHT AROUND EXERCISE CAUTION CRITERIA. AS FOR CONVECTION SCATTERED SHRA AND TSRA QUICKLY DEVELOPED JUST OFF THE MS COAST AND NEAR THE LAKES AFTER MIDNIGHT AND FURTHER DEVELOPMENT WILL BE LIKELY ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE INNER COASTAL WATERS THROUGH THE MORNING WITH CONVECTION EXPANDING INTO THE OUTER WATERS LATER THIS MORNING. LOOK FOR ACTIVITY TO BEGIN TO WANE SOME THIS AFTN BUT SCATTERED SHRA AND TSRA WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH TOMORROW NIGHT. /CAB/ |