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New Orleans Local Weather thread - dkmac - 06-24-2009 03:59 PM

Special Weather Statement
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
LAZ039-040-242130-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
331 PM CDT WED JUN 24 2009

...CLUSTER OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS MOVING SOUTH AFFECTING WASHINGTON
PARISH...ST. TAMMANY PARISH...

AT 329 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
CLUSTER OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS 11 MILES SOUTH OF FRANKLINTON...OR
ABOUT 2 MILES SOUTH OF ENON...MOVING SOUTH AT 15 MPH.

THE CLUSTER OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NEAR...
FOLSOM BY 355 PM...

THE PRIMARY THREATS FROM THESE STORMS ARE FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND WIND
GUSTS TO NEAR 45 MPH...WHICH COULD DOWN TREE LIMBS AND BLOW AROUND
UNSECURED SMALL OBJECTS. SEEK SHELTER IN A SAFE HOME OR BUILDING
UNTIL THESE STORMS HAVE PASSED.

BE PREPARED TO TAKE QUICK ACTION IF A WARNING IS ISSUED. STAY TUNED
TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR FAVORITE LOCAL MEDIA OUTLETS FOR
FURTHER DETAILS OR UPDATES FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

Heavy line of Tstorms rolling thru right now. Wind, lightning and RAIN! Almost went out and took a picture so I could remember what it looks like when we get the next dry spell.


New Orleans Local Weather thread - Windwatcher - 06-24-2009 04:01 PM

HOLY CRAP!! IT IS STORMING ALL OF A SUDDEN AND IT FEELS LIKE MY BUILDING IS BLOWING OVER. UNREAL HOW FAST IT CAME UP!


New Orleans Local Weather thread - dkmac - 06-25-2009 05:49 AM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
427 AM CDT THU JUN 25 2009

.SHORT TERM...
A FEW CHANGES FOR THE BETTER EXPECTED TODAY. TO START...CURRENT
TEMPERATURES ARE COUPLE DEGREES COOLER THAN THIS TIME YESTERDAY
MORNING ALONG WITH DEWPOINTS GENERALLY LOWER ALSO. SO...TODAY/S
HIGHS SHOULD BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN PREVIOUS DAYS. THATS NOT
TO SAY THAT IT WON/T BE HOT. EXPECTING MAX TEMPS TO BE MID TO UPPER
90S WITH HEAT INDICIES 104 TO 108 FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. DID MAKE ONE
CHANGE TO HEAT ADVISORY. HAVE DECIDED TO TAKE SOUTHERN MS COUNTIES
(WILKINSON THRU WALTHALL) OUT OF THE ADVISORY. TD/S HAVE BEEN
RUNNING A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN SE LA LOCATIONS AND THUS SHOULD
HAVE A LOW HEAT INDEX.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON
MAINLY ACROSS SE LA AND COASTAL MS. SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS AN EAST
TO WEST ORIENTED WEAK BOUNDARY STALLED ACROSS THE AREA. WITH THE
UPPER RIDGE LOCATED NEAR THE TX/OK PANHANDLES...SHORT WAVES WILL
TRACK AROUND THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE HIGH THROUGH THE CENTRAL
GULF STATE REGION. MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE PRECIP WATER VALUES WELL
OVER 1.5 INCHES AND CAPE NEAR 2000J/KG THIS AFTERNOON. THE
COMBINATION OF DAYTIME HEATING...INSTABILITY AND A SHORTWAVE WILL
PROVIDE THE MEANS FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. ADDITIONAL MODEL
SOUNDING ANALYSIS SHOWS AN INVERTED V PROFILE WHICH IS INDICATIVE OF
THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG DOWNBURSTS AND THUS THE MAIN CONCERN WITH
THIS AFTERNOON/S ACTIVITY. NOT CERTAIN THAT THESE WINDS WOULD BE
SEVERE...BUT STRONG ENOUGH TO BE A HAZARD. OTHERWISE...MUCH NEEDED
RAIN WILL GLADLY BE WELCOMED ALONG WITH RELIEF FROM UNUSUALLY WARM
TEMPERATURES.

.LONG TERM...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE NE US WILL NOT DIG DEEP ENOUGH
TO HAVE MUCH IMPACT ON THE AREA AS THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS FEATURE WILL REMAIN WELL TO THE NORTH AND EAST. SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THIS WEEKEND AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TO THE
WEST MOVES LITTLE. 850MB TEMPS WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER DURING THIS
TIME PERIOD AND HAVE ADJUSTED TEMPS ACCORDINGLY. HIGHS WILL BE IN
THE MID TO BARELY UPPER 90S COMPARED TO AROUND 100 FROM THE PAST
FEW DAYS.

BETTER RAIN CHANCES WILL COME INTO PLAY EARLY NEXT WEEK. AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH MOVING THROUGH CANADA WILL TRACK SEWD ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS TROUGH WILL STRENGTHEN AS IS MOVES INTO THE
GREAT LAKES REGION AND SEND A COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD. THIS BOUNDARY IS
EXPECTED TO STALL EITHER JUST NORTH OF THE AREA OR VERY CLOSE TO THE
GULF COAST. THE RESULT WILL BE INCREASED RAIN CHANCES MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. HAVE CHNC POPS FOR NOW AND MAY HAVE TO INCREASE POPS EVEN
HIGHER.

MEFFER
&&

AVIATION...
...PRELIMINARY 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

NOT TO DIFFERENT THAN YESTERDAY EXPECTED. AS TEMPS REACH CONVECTIVE
LIMITS WE SHOULD SEE TS DEVELOP AND MOVE OVER AT LEAST THE MSY AND
GPT TERMINALS. HAVE LEFT THE PROB30 FOR ALL SITES THOUGH SINCE THE
ENTIRE AREA IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF DEEPER MOISTURE AND A WEAK
TROUGH AXIS. TS OUTFLOWS WILL CAUSE BL SHEAR AT A FEW LOCATIONS
TODAY AS WELL.

&&

MARINE...

A WEAK BOUNDARY EXTENDING IN THE NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST AXIS HAS
REMAINS STALLED OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. THIS IS ALLOWING FOR LIGHT
WINDS AND ALMOST CALM SEAS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. THE MAIN IMPACT
FROM THIS BOUNDARY WILL BE THE INCREASED CHANCE FOR CONVECTION. TS
SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...AS SEVERAL REINFORCING WEAK
FRONTAL BOUNDARIES FORCED SOUTHWARD BY A STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
OVER THE GREAT LAKES STATES SLIDE INTO THE REGION AND STALL ALONG
THE GULF COAST. HOWEVER...WITH A LACK OF ANY STRONG PRESSURE
GRADIENT EXPECTED BETWEEN THE FRONT AND THE HIGH TO THE SOUTH AND
EAST...WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN WEAK THROUGH THE PERIOD.


New Orleans Local Weather thread - dkmac - 06-25-2009 03:09 PM

Wow, almost 4 straight weeks of no rain, and now two days of rain in a row. I'm not complaining, we needed it!

Quote:Short Term Forecast
SHORT TERM FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
139 PM CDT THU JUN 25 2009

LAZ038>040-046>050-056>069-MSZ077-080>082-252045-
TANGIPAHOA-WASHINGTON-ST. TAMMANY-IBERVILLE-WEST BATON ROUGE-
EAST BATON ROUGE-ASCENSION-LIVINGSTON-ASSUMPTION-ST. JAMES-
ST. JOHN THE BAPTIST-UPPER LAFOURCHE-ST. CHARLES-UPPER JEFFERSON-
ORLEANS-UPPER PLAQUEMINES-UPPER ST. BERNARD-UPPER TERREBONNE-
LOWER TERREBONNE-LOWER LAFOURCHE-LOWER JEFFERSON-
LOWER PLAQUEMINES-PEARL RIVER-HAN****-HARRISON-JACKSON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...HAMMOND...PONCHATOULA...BOGALUSA...
FRANKLINTON...SLIDELL...MANDEVILLE...COVINGTON...LACOMBE...
PLAQUEMINE...WHITE CASTLE...PORT ALLEN...ADDIS...BRUSLY...
BATON ROUGE...GONZALES...DONALDSONVILLE...DENHAM SPRINGS...
WALKER...PIERRE PART...LABADIEVILLE...PAINCOURTVILLE...LUTCHER...
GRAMERCY...LAPLACE...RESERVE...THIBODAUX...RACELAND...LAROSE...
DESTREHAN...NORCO...METAIRIE...KENNER...NEW ORLEANS...
BELLE CHASSE...CHALMETTE...VIOLET...HOUMA...BAYOU CANE...
CHAUVIN...DULAC...MONTEGUT...GALLIANO...CUT OFF...GOLDEN MEADOW...
PORT SULPHUR...EMPIRE...PICAYUNE...BAY ST. LOUIS...WAVELAND...
DIAMONDHEAD...GULFPORT...BILOXI...PASCAGOULA...OCEAN SPRINGS...
MOSS POINT...GAUTIER...ST. MARTIN
139 PM CDT THU JUN 25 2009

.NOW...
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS
AREAS OF EAST CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA AND SOUTHEAST
MISSISSIPPI...FROM EAST OF BATON ROUGE TO THE NORTHSHORE OF LAKE
PONTCHARTRAIN...TO THE MISSISSIPPI GULF COAST...MAINLY NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 10...AND SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST OF LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN AND
LAKE MAUREPAS...WELL INLAND FROM THE COAST. MOVEMENT WILL RANGE
FROM NEAR STATIONARY TO WEST AND SOUTHWEST AT 5 TO 10 MPH. A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS WILL PRODUCE WIND GUSTS 25 TO 35 MPH ALONG WITH
QUICK HEAVY RAINFALL AMOUNTS AROUND ONE INCH...AND OCCASIONAL
LIGHTNING



New Orleans Local Weather thread - dkmac - 06-26-2009 06:38 AM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
426 AM CDT FRI JUN 26 2009

.SHORT TERM...
NOT MANY CHANGES FROM 24 HRS AGO. ABUNDANT MOISTURE IS KEEPING TEMPS
ON A SLOW FALL THIS MORNING. ASIDE FROM A FEW SH/TS
OFFSHORE...RELATIVELY QUITED ACROSS THE AREA. GUIDANCE FORECAST
HIGHS HAVE BEEN SLIGHTLY TOO LOW ALONG NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA
THE PAST FEW DAYS...SO HAVE INCREASED TEMPS IN THOSE AREAS TO THE
UPPER 90S AND MID 90S ELSEWHERE. WENT WITH SLIGHT CHNC THUNDERSTORMS
FOR THIS AFTERNOON. MODELS HAVE BEEN ANEMIC IN PRECIP OUTPUT SO
FORECAST IS A LITTLE HIGHER THAN MODELS EXCEPT FOR MAYBE THE NAM.
THE MAJORITY OF STORMS SHOULD BE SOUTH AND EAST OF A BTR TO MCB
LINE. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES REMAIN QUITE HIGH AT AROUND 2 INCHES.
SO...WON/T TAKE A TREMENDOUS AMOUNT OF SFC HEATING TO GET CONVECTION
GOING WITH SIMILAR COVERAGE TO YESTERDAY. DID MENTION BRIEF GUSTY
WINDS AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS IN THE HWO BUT NOT EXPECTING ANYTHING
SEVERE.

.LONG TERM...
GENERAL UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WITH THE RIDGE SITUATED TO THE WEST OF
THE AREA WILL MAINTAIN ITSELF FOR ABOUT ONE MORE DAY. A RELATIVELY
STRONG TROUGH MOVING THROUGH CANADA WILL FINALLY BREAK DOWN THIS
RIDGE AND SHIFT IT WESTWARD. THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO COOL SLIGHTLY
INTO THE MID TO LOWER 90S NEXT WEEK. AS THIS FEATURE PROGRESSES
ACROSS THE NORTHERN CONUS...A COLD FRONT STILL LOOKS TO BE NEARING
THE AREA MONDAY MORNING. THIS BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO STALL JUST TO
THE NORTH AND THEN SAG SOUTHWARD THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH POSSIBLE
RETREATS BACK NORTH DURING THE AFTERNOON HRS. THIS WILL BE THE MAIN
FOCUSING MECHANISM FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY. HAVE
MAINTAINED CHANCE POPS EACH AFTERNOON. TEMPS SHOULD BE SUPPRESSED
DURING THIS TIME PERIOD WITH INCREASED RAIN ACTIVITY AND AREAL CLOUD
COVERAGE. WITH SUCH HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT JUST OFFSHORE...WOULDN/T
BE SURPRISED IF DAILY AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS PERSIST THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK.

MEFFER
&&

.AVIATION...
VFR TO CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT. TS SHOULD ONCE AGAIN DEVELOP AS
HEATING OCCURS. DON`T EXPECT ANY SINGLE TAF SITE TO GET HIT BY TS
DURING ANY GIVEN PERIOD SINCE MOST SHOULD BE SLOW AND ERRATIC AT BEST.
THEREFORE...DECIDED TO KEEP TS WORDING OUT FOR NOW.

&&

.MARINE...
COUPLE OF ISSUES OVER THE COASTAL WATERS BEGINNING TO CREEP INTO THE
FCAST. THE FIRST IS THE STATIONARY TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN GULF
THAT SHOULD DECAY THROUGH THE DAY. THE SECOND IS THE STRONG TROPICAL
WAVE THAT SHOULD ENTER THE SE GULF LATE SATURDAY. THEN THERE IS THE
NEXT FRONTAL TROUGH THAT WILL SLOW AND STALL OVER THE NORTHERN GULF
BY TUESDAY. EXACTLY WHERE THE TROPICAL MOISTURE IS FUNNELED ALONG
THE TROUGH WILL BE A QUESTION OF TROUGH TIMING AND PLACEMENT. ATTM
IT LOOKS AS IF IT WILL BE AFFECTING AT LEAST THE WATERS EAST OF THE
MISS/R. THE OTHER THING THAT MAY BE INTRODUCED WILL BE ADDITION OF
SWELL AS THE SYSTEM SHOULD BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING ROBUST TS
ACTIVITY OVER THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL GULF. SWELL VALUES HAVE NOT
YET BEEN ADDED INTO THE FCAST AND SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL THE SYSTEM
GETS INTO THE YUCATAN STRAITS OR THE SE GULF.

THE TROUGH AND WAVE WILL INTERACT FOR 3 OR 4 DAYS OVER THE GULF AND
AT LEAST OUTER COASTAL WATERS EAST OF THE MISS/R. SO TS WORDING
SHOULD BECOME COMMON IN THE LATER PORTION OF THE FCAST.



New Orleans Local Weather thread - dkmac - 06-27-2009 05:11 AM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
442 AM CDT SAT JUN 27 2009

.SHORT TERM...
ONGOING SHOWERS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP OFF THE LA COAST WITH THE
STRONGER ACTIVITY WHICH HAS OCCASIONAL LIGHTNING SOUTH OF TERREBONNE
PARISH. A FEW CELLS HAVE PUSH INLAND BUT MOST IS STAYING OFFSHORE. A
WEAK DISTURBANCE IS MOVING ACROSS MS TOWARDS THE CWA. TIMING LOOKS
TO BE OFF WITH ITS ARRIVAL LIKELY TOO EARLY TO RESULT IN MUCH
CONVECTION. PASSING CLOUDS SHOULD BE ALL THAT RESULTS. OTHERWISE...
ANOTHER HOT DAY IN STORE FOR SE LA AND SRN/COASTAL MS. NO
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IS EXPECTED IN THE GENERAL WEATHER PATTERN
WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGE STILL TO THE WEST. 500MB HEIGHTS ARE
FORECAST TO INCREASE SLIGHTLY TODAY. HEIGHTS DO BEGIN TO FALL
SUNDAY AS UPPER TROUGH TO THE NORTHEAST BEGINS TO PINCH THE
EASTERN SIDE OF THE HIGH BUT THE 850MB THERMAL RIDGE REMAINS IN
PLACE. SO...EXPECTING HIGHS TO REMAIN IN THE UPPER 90S TO NEAR
100. LOWER TO MID 70 DEWPOINTS COMBINED WITH THESE WARM TEMPS WILL
RESULT IN HEAT INDICIES BETWEEN 105 AND 108 WITH A FEW ISOLATED
LOCATIONS AT 110 DEGREES AND HAVE THEREFORE CONTINUED THE ADVISORY
THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEKEND.

ALTHOUGH STILL HAVE SLGHT CHC OF TSRMS FOR MUCH OF THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON...COVERAGE WILL LIKELY BE EVEN LESS THAN THE PAST FEW
DAYS. A COUPLE REASONS FOR LESS CONVECTION ARE LOWER PWATS AND LESS
INSTABILITY AS SHOWN THROUGH YESTERDAYS LIX SOUNDING AND MODEL
SOUNDINGS. THE SAME PRETTY MUCH GOES FOR SUNDAY TOO WITH LIKELY EVEN
MORE SH/TS CONFINEMENT TO THE GULF COASTAL AREAS.

.LONG TERM...
BIGGEST ISSUE FOR NEXT WEEK WILL BE A FRONTAL BOUNDARY. A TROUGH
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE HIGH CENTRAL PLAINS AND DEVELOP INTO A CLOSED
LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE REST OF THIS WEEKEND AND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS TROUGH WILL SEND A COLD FRONT TOWARDS THE AREA
EARLY NEXT WEEK. HAVE STARTING INCREASING POPS SUNDAY NIGHT MAINLY
ALONG THE NERN FRINGE OF THE CWA AND PROGRESSIVELY INCREASED THEM
SWRD MONDAY AFTERNOON AND THE BOUNDARY CLOSES IN. IT SHOULD BE FAIRLY
SLOW MOVING AT THAT POINT AS IS MODIFIES. THE DIFFICULTY IN THE
FORECAST COMES IN AS MODEL DIFFERENCES IN THE PROGRESSION OF THE
UPPER LOW IN THE NORTHEAST. THEY ARE CLOSELY MATCHED UNTIL TUESDAY
NIGHT WHEN THE GFS AND NAM/DGEX PROGRESS THE LOW FARTHER NORTHEAST
WHILE THE ECMWF JUST HAS IT MEANDERING. OTHER ISSUES INCLUDE TIMING
AND STALLED BOUNDARY PLACEMENT WITH THE GFS SLIGHTLY FASTER AND A
MORE SOUTHERN PROGRESSION AS COMPARED TO THE ECMWF. TRIED TO END UP
WITH A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE MODELS DUE TO UNCERTAINTY.

AS THE WEEK PROGRESSES...MOST SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD BE OFF SHORE
WITH SOME INTRUSION INTO COASTAL PARISHES AND COUNTIES. HIGH
PRESSURE LOOKS TO BE BUILDING BACK IN BY MID TO LATE WEEK SO HAVE
INCREASED AREAL TEMPS BY A DEGREE OR TWO WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO
SLIGHTLY UPPER 90S.

MEFFER
&&

AVIATION...
...12Z TAF ISSUANCE...
VFR AGAIN TODAY FOR ALL SITES. NOT EXPECTING A REPEAT OF YESTERDAY
MORNING OF M1/4SM FG AT MCB. SOME TURBULENT MIXING COMING IN FROM
THE NORTH ALONG WITH SOME MID AND UPPER DECKS MOVING THROUGH AND
TEMPS ARE STAYING ON THE HIGH SIDE AS WELL. THIS SHOULD KEEP VIS
FROM DIPPING TO 1/4SM. COULD SEE A REDUCTION TO AROUND 1 TO 2 MILES
THOUGH AND WILL TEMPO THIS. ALL OTHER SITES WILL REMAIN CLEAR OF FG
BUT SHOULD SEE SOME INTERMITTENT MID CEILINGS MOVE THROUGH. TS ONCE
AGAIN TODAY MAINLY FOR COASTAL LOCATIONS BUT NOT ENOUGH TO MENTION
FOR ANY PARTICULAR SITE.

&&

MARINE...
HAVE LOOKED AT MANY DIFFERENT NATIONAL MODELS THIS MORNING TO GET A
BEARING ON WHERE AND WHEN THE STRONG TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE WESTERN
CARIBBEAN WILL BE IN THE GULF THROUGH THE WEEK. HAVE FOUND SOME
CLUES THAT ALL MODELS AGREE ON AND SOME THAT NONE AGREE ON.
REGARDLESS TO SAY...IN THE SHORT TERM THE DISTURBANCE WILL MAKE ITS
WAY INTO THE GULF LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT.

A DEEP MOISTURE FLOW IS DEVELOPING TOWARD THE WEST...AWAY FROM THE
SYSTEM OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF(BAY OF CAMPECHE). ANOTHER IS
DEVELOPING NORTH BY NORTHEAST. THE MAIN DISTURBANCE WILL TAKE ONE OF
THESE TWO PATHS ONCE IT ENTERS THE GULF. BUT REGARDLESS OF WHICH
PATH THE MAIN ONE TAKES...AREAS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO FORM ON THE OTHER DEEP MOISTURE BRANCH AS WELL. GFS HAS THE
MAIN FEATURE MOVING NORTH THEN NE AS IT IS PICKED UP BY THE FRONTAL
TROUGH THAT MOVES INTO THE NORTHERN GULF. THE ETA ALONG WITH THE
EUROPEAN SUITES HAVE THE MAIN SYSTEM MOVING NORTH THEN WEST AS THEIR
SOLUTIONS SPEED THE TROUGH THROUGH THE SE STATES CAUSING THE RIDGE
TO BUILD BACK OVER TOO FAST CAUSING THE SYSTEM TO TURN AND MOVE
AROUND THE HIGH TO THE WEST. HERE...TIMING IS EVERYTHING. BUT
ALAS...THINGS LOOK OK FOR OUR AREA AT THIS TIME. WE KNOW THAT THE
HIGH WILL RIDGE INTO THE NORTHERN GULF COAST STARTING MONDAY EVENING
AND LAST A FEW DAYS WHICH WOULD KEEP THE SYSTEM AWAY FROM HERE. THE
ONLY POSSIBILITY OF THE SYSTEM HAVING EVEN A REMOTE AFFECT ON THIS
AREA WOULD BE IF IT DEVELOPS AND MEANDERS AROUND THE GULF FOR A DAY
OR TWO WHILE ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROUGH BEGINS TO DIG SOUTHWARD.

EVENTUALLY...THE DEEP MOISTURE PLUME MOVING WEST WILL GRADUALLY
START SHIFTING NORTHWARD THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK. THIS SHOULD
BRING SOME TS ACTIVITY BACK TO THE COASTAL WATERS PAST THE CURRENT
FORECAST PERIOD.


New Orleans Local Weather thread - dkmac - 06-28-2009 05:15 AM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
428 AM CDT SUN JUN 28 2009

.DISCUSSION...
NOT TO REPEAT THE OBVIOUS...BUT ANOTHER HOT DAY IS
IN THE BOOKS AND ANOTHER ONE IS ON TAP FOR TODAY. SURFACE ANALYSIS
SHOWED A WEAK GRADIENT ACROSS THE NORTH GULF AND CENTRAL GULF
COAST. IN ADDITION...A VERY DEEP 985MB LOW WAS LOCATED JUST NORTH
OF MINNESOTA WITH A TRAILING FRONT SOUTH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
SOUTHWEST TO NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWED THE
HIGH OVER NORTH TEXAS AND SOUTH OKLAHOMA WITH RIDGE AXIS EAST FOR
NORTH LOUISIANA AND NORTH MISSISSIPPI. A NEGATIVELY TILTED OVER
NORTHERN MINNESOTA AND NORTHWEST FLOW FROM MISSOURI TO MONTANA.
THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE WAVE WAS BUCKING UP AGAINST THE
WEST/EAST RIDGE AXIS. IR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED THE CONVECTION
FROM SOUTHWEST MISSOURI TO WEST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA...ALONG THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. WE HAVE NOT FORGOTTEN THE FORECAST PROBLEM NEAR
THE YUCATAN.

SHORT RANGE MODELS ARE IN CLOSE AGREEMENT OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS WITH
THE FRONT. UPPER LEVEL LOW AND SURFACE LOW WILL DIVE SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES LATE TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. A VIGOROUS
AXIS ROTATING ON BACKSIDE WILL HELP DRIVE THE FRONT DOWN
SIDE...PUSH THE MAIN UPPER HIGH WEST AND CREATE A MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY. WILL MAINTAIN CHANCE POPS FOR
MONDAY. WITH SEVERAL WAVES ROTATING AROUND THE MAIN LOW ACROSS THE
MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND OHIO VALLEY TUESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY....FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL NOT RETREAT NORTH OR PUSH
COMPLETELY INTO THE GULF. WITH THE SYSTEM OVER SOUTHEAST
GULF...EXPECTING SOME MOVEMENT TO THE CENTRAL GULF AND MOISTURE WILL
LIKELY CONVERGE ALONG THE BOUNDARY STARTING WEDNESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY. WILL MAINTAIN A CHANCE WELL OFFSHORE AND CONVECTION MAY BE
NUMEROUS ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
RELUCTANT TO KNOCK DOWN TEMPS ACROSS NORTH HALF OF THE FORECAST
LATE IN THE WEEK. A NORTHWEST MOIST FLOW MAY DEVELOP OVER THE
AREA NEXT WEEK...A STEP CLOSER TO NORMS IS POSSIBLE NEXT WEEKEND.

MEANWHILE...HEAT FOR TODAY WILL MAINTAIN ADVISORY THROUGH TODAY AS
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE PUSHES THROUGH. INCREASE RAIN THREAT EARLY
MONDAY MAY PROVIDE SOME RELIEF.

&&

.AVIATION...
..12Z TAF ISSUANCE...
VFR SHOULD CONTINUE FOR MOST SITES THROUGH THE PERIOD. SOME 2SM BR
MAY SHOW UP FOR A SHORT TIME AT MCB AND EVEN LIGHTER ELSEWHERE. SOME
SCT040 SHOULD BE THE MAJOR SKY COVER TODAY. ISOLATED TS ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED BUT SHOULD NOT AFFECT ANY TERMINALS. SOME ACTIVITY MAY
CLOSE IN ON THE MCB TERMINAL EARLY MONDAY MORNING BUT WILL LEAVE OUT
FOR NOW WITH LOW CONFIDENCE.

&&

MARINE...
EXPECT THE WEAK FRONTAL THROUGH TO MOVE TO THE COAST MONDAY NIGHT.
LIGHT WEST AND SOUTHWEST WINDS MAY BRIEFLY SHIFT TO THE NORTH OVER
THE 0-20NM ZONES BEFORE SHIFTING BACK TO A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION. THE
FRONT WILL GRADUALLY DISSIPATE THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. A STRONG
TROPICAL WAVE MOVING OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA IS EXPECTED TO
ENTER THE SOUTHERN GULF IN A FEW DAYS. VERY SLOW...IF
ANY...DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED AS IT MOVES BACK OVER THE GULF. THE
DEEP MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE WILL SLOWLY MAKE ITS WAY
NORTHWARD INTO THE LOUISIANA/MISSISSIPPI COASTAL WATERS BY THURSDAY
OR FRIDAY.


New Orleans Local Weather thread - ROLLTIDE - 06-28-2009 07:25 AM

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
514 AM CDT SUN JUN 28 2009

...HEAT ADVISORY IN EFFECT TILL 7PM THIS EVENING FOR AREAS NEAR
AND NORTH OF A LINE FROM BATON ROUGE TO PASCAGOULA...

.HOT CONDITIONS ACROSS THE GULF SOUTH WILL CONTINUE TODAY.
LOCATIONS NORTH OF INTERSTATE 12 IN LOUISIANA AND INTERSTATE 10 IN
MISSISSIPPI WILL EXPERIENCE UNUSUALLY WARM CONDITIONS LATE THIS
MORNING THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES ABOVE 105
DEGREES.

LAZ034>040-046>050-MSZ068>071-077-080>082-282200-
/O.CON.KLIX.HT.Y.0002.000000T0000Z-090629T0000Z/
POINTE COUPEE-WEST FELICIANA-EAST FELICIANA-ST. HELENA-TANGIPAHOA-
WASHINGTON-ST. TAMMANY-IBERVILLE-WEST BATON ROUGE-
EAST BATON ROUGE-ASCENSION-LIVINGSTON-WILKINSON-AMITE-PIKE-
WALTHALL-PEARL RIVER-HAN****-HARRISON-JACKSON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...NEW ROADS...LIVONIA...
ST. FRANCISVILLE...JACKSON...CLINTON...GREENSBURG...MONTPELIER...
HAMMOND...PONCHATOULA...BOGALUSA...FRANKLINTON...SLIDELL...
MANDEVILLE...COVINGTON...LACOMBE...PLAQUEMINE...WHITE CASTLE...
PORT ALLEN...ADDIS...BRUSLY...BATON ROUGE...GONZALES...
DONALDSONVILLE...DENHAM SPRINGS...WALKER...CENTREVILLE...
WOODVILLE...GLOSTER...LIBERTY...CROSBY...MCCOMB...TYLERTOWN...
PICAYUNE...BAY ST. LOUIS...WAVELAND...DIAMONDHEAD...GULFPORT...
BILOXI...PASCAGOULA...OCEAN SPRINGS...MOSS POINT...GAUTIER...
ST. MARTIN
514 AM CDT SUN JUN 28 2009

...HEAT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING...

HOT CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY. LOCATIONS NEAR AND NORTH OF A
LINE FROM BATON ROUGE TO PASCAGOULA WILL SEE HEAT INDEX VALUES
AROUND OR JUST ABOVE 105 DEGREES MAINLY BETWEEN 11 AM THIS MORNING
AND 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A HEAT ADVISORY MEANS THAT A PERIOD OF HOT TEMPERATURES IS
EXPECTED. THE COMBINATION OF HOT TEMPERATURES AND HIGH HUMIDITY
WILL COMBINE TO CREATE A SITUATION IN WHICH HEAT ILLNESSES ARE
POSSIBLE. DRINK PLENTY OF FLUIDS...STAY IN AN AIR-CONDITIONED
ROOM...STAY OUT OF THE SUN...AND CHECK UP ON RELATIVES AND
NEIGHBORS.

&&

$$


New Orleans Local Weather thread - dkmac - 06-29-2009 05:27 AM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
443 AM CDT MON JUN 29 2009

.DISCUSSION...
LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED THE COLD FRONT FROM THE CAROLINAS
TO EAST CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI TO EAST TEXAS. IN ADDITION...A 1022MB
HIGH WAS LOCATED OVER EAST OKLAHOMA. UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SHOWED THE
LOW OVER LAKE SUPERIOR WITH NORTHWEST FLOW FROM NORTHERN PLAINS TO
SOUTHEAST CONUS. THE ASSOCIATED UPPER LEVEL AXIS WAS LOCATED FROM
VIRGINA TO NORTH MISSISSIPPI TO OKLAHOMA. IN ADDITION...UPPER HIGH
WAS LOCATED HIGH OVER WEST TEXAS AND NEW MEXICO WITH THE RIDGE
AXIS EXTENDING SOUTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA. AREAL MODEL
SOUNDING CONTINUE TO SHOW CAPE VALUES AROUND 4000J/KG...PW VALUE
NEAR 2 INCHES THIS MORNING AND NO CAP. UPPER LEVEL AXIS WILL PRESS
SOUTH AND MOISTURE WILL POOLING THIS AXIS FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA TODAY...HENCE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TODAY. WILL MAINTAIN CHANCE POPS...SOME AREAS WILL SEE TEMP
RISE QUICKLY DUE ADIABATIC COMPRESSION AHEAD OF THE SURFACE FRONT.
IN ADDITION...A FEW SPOTS MAY SEE HEAT INDEX VALUES CLIMB INTO
100 TO 106 BEFORE CLOUD COVER AND RAINS. WILL ALLOW THE HEAT
ADVISORY TO EXPIRE. UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION
WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST WITH A STRONG AXIS ROTATING AROUND THE
BACKSIDE OF THE MAIN LOW TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THUS...NORTHWEST
FLOW WILL KEEP THE BOUNDARY OVER THE AREA THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY.
UPPER LEVEL HIGH WILL REMAIN WEST BUT TROUGH WILL LIFT EAST. AS A
RESULT...NORTHWEST FLOW WILL WEAKEN A BIT THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. SURFACE
HIGH WILL SET UP OVER EAST GULF AND OLD BOUNDARY WILL WASH OUT.
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL SLOWLY MIGRATE ACROSS THE FORECAST
THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. SEVERAL WEAK WAVES WILL PASS ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA OVER THE WEEKEND...WILL MAINTAIN CHANCES POPS OVER
THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...
AVIATION...
..12Z TAF ISSUANCE...
VFR SHOULD BE THE GENERAL RULE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. ISOLATED
TSTMS MAY TEMPORARILY LOWER CONDITIONS THROUGH THIS EVENING THOUGH
DURATION OF EVENTS SHOULD BE RELATIVELY SHORT. CONVERGENCE ALONG
APPROACHING FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHOULD BRING INCREASE IN CONVECTION AND
COVERAGE ON MON AND MAY HAVE GREATER IMPACT ON TERMINALS.

&&

MARINE...
WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXPECTED TO DRIFT SOUTH TO THE COAST LATE MONDAY.
LIGHT WEST AND SOUTHWEST WINDS MAY BRIEFLY SHIFT TO THE NORTH IN THE
NEAR SHORE AREA MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY BEFORE SHIFTING BACK TO A
SOUTHERLY DIRECTION. THE FRONT WILL GRADUALLY DISSIPATE THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT BEFORE WEAK ONSHORE FLOW RETURNS MID TO LATE WEEK.


New Orleans Local Weather thread - dkmac - 06-29-2009 03:28 PM

Short Term Forecast
SHORT TERM FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
301 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2009

GMZ555-LAZ034>040-046>050-MSZ068>071-077-080>082-292215-
COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER OUT 20 NM-POINTE COUPEE-WEST FELICIANA-
EAST FELICIANA-ST. HELENA-TANGIPAHOA-WASHINGTON-ST. TAMMANY-
IBERVILLE-WEST BATON ROUGE-EAST BATON ROUGE-ASCENSION-LIVINGSTON-
WILKINSON-AMITE-PIKE-WALTHALL-PEARL RIVER-HAN****-HARRISON-
JACKSON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...NEW ROADS...LIVONIA...
ST. FRANCISVILLE...JACKSON...CLINTON...GREENSBURG...MONTPELIER...
HAMMOND...PONCHATOULA...BOGALUSA...FRANKLINTON...SLIDELL...
MANDEVILLE...COVINGTON...LACOMBE...PLAQUEMINE...WHITE CASTLE...
PORT ALLEN...ADDIS...BRUSLY...BATON ROUGE...GONZALES...
DONALDSONVILLE...DENHAM SPRINGS...WALKER...CENTREVILLE...
WOODVILLE...GLOSTER...LIBERTY...CROSBY...MCCOMB...TYLERTOWN...
PICAYUNE...BAY ST. LOUIS...WAVELAND...DIAMONDHEAD...GULFPORT...
BILOXI...PASCAGOULA...OCEAN SPRINGS...MOSS POINT...GAUTIER...
ST. MARTIN
301 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2009

.NOW...

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND
MOVE SLOWLY SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA AND THE
MISSISSIPPI GULF COAST. THESE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE CAPABLE
OF PRODUCING BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS...WIND GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH AND
FREQUENT LIGHTNING. RAINFALL RATES ARE GENERALLY LESS THAN A HALF
AN INCH PER HOUR...UP TO ONE AND A HALF INCHES CAN BE EXPECTED
WITH STRONGER STORMS.