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New Orleans Local Weather thread - dkmac - 06-20-2009 06:48 AM

Heat Advisory
URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
415 AM CDT SAT JUN 20 2009

...A HEAT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST
LOUISIANA AND COASTAL MISSISSIPPI UNTIL 7 PM TODAY.

.HOT WEATHER WILL CONTINUE OVER THE REGION TODAY STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE IN THE UPPER LEVEL OF THE ATMOSPHERE REMAINS CENTERED
OVER THE GULF SOUTH REGION.

LAZ038-040-046>050-056>070-MSZ080>082-201715-
/O.NEW.KLIX.HT.Y.0001.090620T0915Z-090621T0000Z/
TANGIPAHOA-ST. TAMMANY-IBERVILLE-WEST BATON ROUGE-
EAST BATON ROUGE-ASCENSION-LIVINGSTON-ASSUMPTION-ST. JAMES-
ST. JOHN THE BAPTIST-UPPER LAFOURCHE-ST. CHARLES-UPPER JEFFERSON-
ORLEANS-UPPER PLAQUEMINES-UPPER ST. BERNARD-UPPER TERREBONNE-
LOWER TERREBONNE-LOWER LAFOURCHE-LOWER JEFFERSON-
LOWER PLAQUEMINES-LOWER ST. BERNARD-HAN****-HARRISON-JACKSON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...HAMMOND...PONCHATOULA...SLIDELL...
MANDEVILLE...COVINGTON...LACOMBE...PLAQUEMINE...WHITE CASTLE...
PORT ALLEN...ADDIS...BRUSLY...BATON ROUGE...GONZALES...
DONALDSONVILLE...DENHAM SPRINGS...WALKER...PIERRE PART...
LABADIEVILLE...PAINCOURTVILLE...LUTCHER...GRAMERCY...LAPLACE...
RESERVE...THIBODAUX...RACELAND...LAROSE...DESTREHAN...NORCO...
METAIRIE...KENNER...NEW ORLEANS...BELLE CHASSE...CHALMETTE...
VIOLET...HOUMA...BAYOU CANE...CHAUVIN...DULAC...MONTEGUT...
GALLIANO...CUT OFF...GOLDEN MEADOW...PORT SULPHUR...EMPIRE...
YSCLOSKEY...BAY ST. LOUIS...WAVELAND...DIAMONDHEAD...GULFPORT...
BILOXI...PASCAGOULA...OCEAN SPRINGS...MOSS POINT...GAUTIER...
ST. MARTIN
415 AM CDT SAT JUN 20 2009

...HEAT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING...

DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S...COMBINED WITH HIGH
HUMIDITY READINGS WILL CAUSE HEAT INDICES IN THE EARLY TO MID
AFTERNOON TO REACH AROUND 105 DEGREES. THESE CONDITIONS CAN
INCREASE THE RISK OF HEAT RELATED ILLNESS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A HEAT ADVISORY MEANS THAT A PERIOD OF HOT TEMPERATURES IS
EXPECTED. THE COMBINATION OF HOT TEMPERATURES AND HIGH HUMIDITY
WILL COMBINE TO CREATE A SITUATION IN WHICH HEAT ILLNESSES ARE
POSSIBLE. DRINK PLENTY OF FLUIDS...STAY IN AN AIR-CONDITIONED
ROOM...STAY OUT OF THE SUN...AND CHECK UP ON RELATIVES AND
NEIGHBORS. IF POSSIBLE...REFRAIN FROM DOING OUTSIDE WORK DURING
THE HOTTEST PART OF THE DAY. IF YOU MUST BE OUTDOORS...WEAR LIGHT
WEIGHT...LIGHT COLORED CLOTHING...DRINK PLENTY OF WATER...SLOW
DOWN AND TAKE FREQUENT BREAKS.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
402 AM CDT SAT JUN 20 2009

.SHORT TERM...

VERY LITTLE IF ANY CHANGE IN THE PATTERN EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT
FEW DAYS. STRONG RIDGING THROUGHOUT THE ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN
CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE GULF SOUTH. ALL OF THE GUIDANCE MODELS
INDICATE THAT THE RIDGE WILL REMAIN CENTERED OVER THE FORECAST
AREA THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. CLEAR SKIES...LIGHT WINDS...AND NEAR
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES. DEWPOINTS GENERALLY IN THE LOWER TO MID
70S...HOWEVER DUE TO SHALLOW MOISTURE DEPTH...MIXING DURING
AFTERNOON TAKES DEWPOINTS DOWN A FEW DEGREES DURING MAX HEATING.
BORDERLINE HEAT ADVISORY SITUATION CONTINUES OVER THE SOUTHERN
HALF OF AREA WITH HEAT INDEX REACHING AROUND 105 IN EARLY TO MID
AFTERNOON...AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80. WILL
ISSUE AN ADVISORY TODAY...EXPIRING IN THE EVENING. ANYONE ENGAGED
IN OUTSIDE ACTIVITIES TODAY SHOULD USE CAUTION AND REMAIN
HYDRATED.

.LONG TERM...

IN THE MID TO LATE WEEK TIME FRAME..CENTER OF UPPER RIDGE SHIFTS
SLIGHTLY WEST TO NM REGION...WITH TROUGH DEVELOPING ALONG EAST
COAST. THIS PATTERN MAY EXPOSE AREA TO AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
LATE AFTERNOON OR EVENING CONVECTION PUSHING IN FROM THE NE AS
DISTURBANCES RIDE SWD IN NW FLOW. FIRST SUBTLE DISTURBANCE OCCURS
LATE TUE AND TUE EVENING WITH POTENTIAL SFC TROUGH MOVING OVER
AREA. WILL LEAVE POPS IN THE SLIGHT CHANCE RANGE. TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH MID WEEK BEFORE BEING
TEMPERED A FEW DEGREES.

&&
AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. SOME DAYTIME
CUMULUS CLOUDS WILL START OUT 2-3 KFT 13-15Z BUT THEN RISE TO 4-5
KFT IN THE AFTERNOON DUE TO INTENSE SURFACE HEATING. NO SHRA/TSRA
EXPECTED.

22
&&

MARINE...
WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE AROUND 10 KNOTS OR LESS THROUGH SUNDAY
EVENING AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE NORTH GULF OF MEXICO.
A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SAG SOUTH NEAR THE COAST TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. THE COMBINATION OF HIGHER PRESSURE SOUTHWEST OF THIS
BOUNDARY AND LOWER PRESSURE ALONG THE WEAK FRONT WILL INCREASE THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT AND WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS. WINDS MAY PEAK AROUND 15 KNOTS WITH SEAS AS HIGH AS 3 TO 4
FEET OVER PORTIONS OF THE COASTAL WATERS MAINLY LATE TUESDAY NIGHT
AND WEDNESDAY MORNING.


New Orleans Local Weather thread - Southernbelle - 06-20-2009 07:49 AM

It's hottt here!


New Orleans Local Weather thread - dkmac - 06-21-2009 06:33 AM

southernbelle Wrote:It's hottt here!

And it's going to stay hottt for a few more days!


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
456 AM CDT SUN JUN 21 2009

.SHORT TERM...
NEAR RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES AND HEAT INDICES IN OR NEAR THE
DANGER CATEGORY FROM MIDDAY THROUGH MOST OF THE AFTERNOON WILL BE
THE MAIN CONCERN THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE BASIC PATTERN IS NOT
CHANGING MUCH...HIGH PRESSURE IN THE MID LEVELS WHICH IS
PREVENTING ANY SUBSTANTIAL CLOUD COVER AND KEEPING THE POP NEAR
ZERO. WITH NIGHTTIME TEMPERATURES ONLY FALLING INTO THE 75 TO 80
DEGREE RANGE...THERE IS LITTLE TIME TO RECOVER FROM THE HOT
TEMPERATURES AND HIGH HUMIDITY. AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY
READINGS HAVE BEEN FALLING IN MANY AREAS THE LAST FEW DAYS WITH
DEWPOINTS DIPPING INTO THE 60S...AND THIS COULD STILL OCCUR THE
NEXT COUPLE DAYS...HOWEVER...THE NEAR RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL STILL PUSH THE HEAT INDICES UP NEAR 105 DEGREES FOR AT LEAST
A COUPLE HOURS. TO MAKE MATTERS WORSE...THE POSITION OF THE
SURFACE HIGH IN THE NORTHWEST GULF OF MEXICO WILL CAUSE SURFACE
WINDS TO BECOME MORE WEST TO NORTHWEST ON MONDAY WHICH WILL CUT-
OFF ANY SLIGHT COOLING EFFECTS FROM THE SEABREEZE. HAVE EXPANDED
THE HEAT ADVISORY TO INCLUDE THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA AND EXTENDED
IT THROUGH MONDAY.

.LONG TERM...
THE MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE GRADUALLY RETROGRADING WEST EARLY NEXT
WEEK TOWARDS THE PLAINS AS A DEEP MID LEVEL LOW/TROUGH BECOMES
SETTLED OFF THE EAST COAST. THIS WILL SEND A SURFACE TROUGH
SOUTHWARD...WHICH WILL PROBABLY PREVENT ANY SUBSTANTIAL SEA BREEZE
BOUNDARIES FROM FORMING DUE TO MAINLY WEST TO NORTH SURFACE WIND
FLOW MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. ALSO...MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW
SLIGHTLY HIGHER 850 MB TEMPERATURES EACH DAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
WITH SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE. HAVE LOWERED THE
POP DURING THE TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY PERIODS AFTER OBSERVING A
CONSENSUS OF THE MODELS AND THE DRY AND WARM MID LEVELS DEPICTED
IN MODEL SOUNDINGS. THIS SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES...AS IF THEY
WERE NOT HIGH ENOUGH...TO REACH NEAR 100 DEGREES TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. HEAT ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY NEED TO BE EXTENDED THROUGH
MID WEEK...AND A FEW AREAS COULD EVENTUALLY NEED TO BE UPGRADED TO
AN EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING.

THE MID LEVEL RIDGE SHOULD BECOME POSITIONED FAR ENOUGH WEST AND
NORTH TO ALLOW SOME ISOLATED DAYTIME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
DEVELOP ALONG DEVELOPING SEA AND LAKE BREEZES THURSDAY THROUGH
NEXT WEEKEND. THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO TRY TO RETURN A BIT
CLOSER TO NORMAL HIGHS WHICH ARE IN THE LOWER 90S.

22/TD
&&

AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. SOME DAYTIME
CUMULUS CLOUDS WILL START DEVELOPING DURING LATE MORNING AT AROUND
2-3 KFT. BY AFTERNOON...DIURNAL HEATING WILL PUSH CLOUD BASES TO
ABOUT 4-5 KFT. WITH LOSS OF HEAT DURING EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...
CLOUDS WILL DISSIPATE AND PATCHY RADIATIONAL FOG MAY DEVELOP NEAR
WATER AND AROUND KMCB. NO SHRA/TSRA EXPECTED.

&&

MARINE...
WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE AROUND 10 KNOTS OR LESS TODAY AS WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO. A WEAK FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL SAG SOUTH NEAR THE COAST TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THE
COMBINATION OF HIGHER PRESSURE SOUTH AND WEST OF THIS BOUNDARY AND
LOWER PRESSURE ALONG AND EAST OF THE WEAK FRONT WILL INCREASE THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT. AS A RESULT...WINDS WILL BE WEST TO NORTHWEST
OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. BY MONDAY NIGHT AND INTO TUESDAY
MORNING...WINDS SPEEDS WILL INCREASE OFF THE MISSISSIPPI COAST AND
BECOME 15 TO 20 KTS WITH SEAS OF 2 TO 4 FEET. BY LATE TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING...WINDS WILL INCREASE AND BECOME 15 TO 20 KTS
OVER LOUISIANA`S COASTAL WATERS WITH SEAS OF 2 TO 4 FEET. FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIODS...WINDS OVER THE NORTHERN GULF
WILL BE 5 TO 15 KTS WITH SEAS OF 1 TO 3 FEET.


New Orleans Local Weather thread - ROLLTIDE - 06-22-2009 03:42 AM

SkyWarn Training Schedule
by NWS Forecast Office
Slidell, Louisiana
Severe Weather/Storm Spotter - Training Sessions


Basic SkyWarn Training Session

When: 6:00PM - 8:00PM Tuesday - June 30, 2009
Where: Advanced Traffic Management - Emergency Operations Center
3773 Harding Ave Baton Rouge, LA 70087

Local Sponsor - Baton Rouge Mayor's Office of Homeland Security and Emergency Management
Visit this web page for additional information on the course
or contact Wil White - 225-389-2100

NWS Contact - Frank Revitte, 985-649-0357 x 223.
Continue to check this page for upcoming sessions.


New Orleans Local Weather thread - dkmac - 06-22-2009 05:37 AM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
449 AM CDT MON JUN 22 2009

.SHORT TERM...
HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL BE CONTINUE TO BE VERY OPPRESSIVE THROUGH
TUESDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REACH THE UPPER 90S TODAY AND THE
UPPER 90S TO NEAR 100 DEGREES ON TUESDAY. A FEW WARM-BIAS NON-ASOS
LOCATIONS LIKE HAMMOND WILL LIKELY EXCEED 100 DEGREES AGAIN TODAY
AND TOMORROW. THE MID/UPPER HIGH WILL MAINTAIN ITS GRIP ON THE
FORECAST AREA WITH LITTLE OR NO COOLING SEABREEZES EXPECTED EXCEPT
NEAR THE IMMEDIATE COAST AND SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA COASTAL
MARSHLANDS.

THE UPPER HIGH WILL RETROGRADE ENOUGH TUESDAY TO ALLOW A WEAK
DISTURBANCE TO MOVE SOUTH ACROSS ALABAMA AND THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE
LATE IN THE DAY INTO THE EVENING. HPC IS FORECASTING SOME QPF OVER
COASTAL SECTIONS TUESDAY EVENING WHICH IS IN LINE WITH THE NAM
MODEL. THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW DRIER SOLUTIONS...EXCEPT THE GFS HAS
A SUSPICIOUS LOOKING BAND OF RAIN OVER SOUTH MISSISSIPPI DURING
THE 06Z-12Z PERIOD. PWATS AND CLOUD BASE LEVEL THETA-E WILL
INCREASE OVER COASTAL MISSISSIPPI WHILE 500 MB TEMPERATURES COOL
SLIGHTLY. HAVE ADDED MENTION OF SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 4 PM THROUGH ABOUT MIDNIGHT TUESDAY FOR THE
MISSISSIPPI COASTAL COUNTIES...THEN CONTINUE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
CONVECTION OVER THE EASTERN COASTAL WATERS THROUGH THE NIGHT. ANY
LAND AREAS RECEIVING MEASURABLE RAIN WILL BE LUCKY GIVEN THE
RECENT EXTENDED DRY SPELL.

.LONG TERM...
THE MID/UPPER HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO RETROGRADE WEST AND NORTHWEST
EVER SO SLOWLY WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
MID LEVEL NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS...AND BETTER SURFACE SEABREEZE
AND LAKE BREEZE CONVERGENCE BOUNDARIES OVER THE CENTRAL GULF COAST
REGION BY THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK. THE MODELS HAVE FLIP-
FLOPPED WITH REGARDS TO MOISTURE AND POPS DURING MUCH OF THE
EXTENDED PERIOD...SO THIS IS A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST.
HOWEVER...AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW CHANCE OF MOSTLY DIURNAL
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS WARRANTED WITH THE BEST CHANCES OF
RAIN AT THIS TIME LOOKING TO BE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. DAYS WITH A
20 PERCENT POP OR LESS WILL CONTINUE TO BE QUITE HOT AND HUMID
WITH HIGHS EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 90S WEDNESDAY BEFORE
COOLING TO THE MID 90S THURSDAY AND 90 TO 95 FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

22/TD
&&

AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. SOME DAYTIME
CUMULUS CLOUDS WILL START DEVELOPING DURING LATE MORNING AT AROUND
2-3 KFT. BY AFTERNOON...DIURNAL HEATING WILL PUSH CLOUD BASES TO
ABOUT 4-5 KFT. WITH LOSS OF HEAT DURING EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...
CLOUDS WILL DISSIPATE AND PATCHY RADIATIONAL FOG MAY DEVELOP NEAR
WATER AND AROUND KMCB. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP ACROSS MS
GULF COAST REGION...OTHERWISE NO SHRA/TSRA EXPECTED.

&&

MARINE...
WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE AROUND 10 KNOTS OR LESS TODAY AS WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO. A WEAK FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL SAG SOUTH NEAR THE COAST AND WILL INCREASE THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT AND WINDS. WINDS WILL BE WEST TO NORTHWEST OVER
THE COASTAL WATERS. BY TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING...WINDS SPEEDS
WILL INCREASE OFF THE MISSISSIPPI COAST AND BECOME 15 TO 20 KTS WITH
SEAS OF 2 TO 4 FEET. BY LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING...
WINDS WILL INCREASE AND BECOME 15 TO 20 KTS OVER LOUISIANA`S COASTAL
WATERS WITH SEAS OF 2 TO 4 FEET. FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST
PERIODS...WINDS OVER THE NORTHERN GULF WILL BE 5 TO 15 KTS WITH SEAS
OF 1 TO 3 FEET.


New Orleans Local Weather thread - ROLLTIDE - 06-22-2009 08:13 AM


706
SXUS74 KLIX 220601
RERLIX

RECORD EVENT REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS
100 AM CDT MON JUN 22 2009

...RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE SET AT NEW ORLEANS ARMSTRONG
INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT...

A RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE OF 96 DEGREES WAS SET AT NEW ORLEANS
ARMSTRONG INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT YESTERDAY...JUNE 21. THIS TIED THE
OLD RECORD OF 96 SET IN 1981.

$$

22


New Orleans Local Weather thread - dkmac - 06-23-2009 06:26 AM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
453 AM CDT TUE JUN 23 2009

.SHORT TERM...
DANGEROUS HEAT STRESS LEVELS WILL CONTINUE TODAY AS HIGH
TEMPERATURES ONCE AGAIN REACH AROUND THE CENTURY MARK. THE PATTERN
HAS NOT CHANGED MUCH...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THE UPPER HIGH
RIGHT OVER LOUISIANA WITH A LOBE OF VERY DRY AND WARM AIR ALOFT
ROTATING DOWN OVER THE FORECAST AREA. THE LARGER SCALE SHOWS THE
UPPER RIDGE BUILDING NORTH TO THE CANADIAN BORDER WHILE THE TROUGH
DEEPENS OFF THE EAST COAST. THIS AMPLIFICATION IS CAUSING THE
UPPER RIDGE AXIS TO RETROGRADE SLIGHTLY WEST WHICH MAY...I
EMPHASIZE MAY...ALLOW FOR A WEAK NORTHERLY DISTURBANCE AND VERY
MODEST COOLING AT 500 MB THIS EVENING NEAR TO JUST AFTER PEAK
HEATING. THE PREVIOUS FORECAST PACKAGE INTRODUCED A SLIGHTLY
HIGHER /20 PERCENT POP/ FOR LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TODAY OVER MOST OF THE AREA...BUT WATER VAPOR AND
MODEL TRENDS HAVE BACKED OFF TO A MOSTLY DRY SOLUTION. WILL
LEAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF CONVECTION IN THE FORECAST FOR SOUTHEAST
MISSISSIPPI TONIGHT WHERE THERE WILL BE A BETTER COMBINATION OF
WEAK SEABREEZE...BACK DOOR SURFACE TROUGH...AND SOME PVA FROM A
WEAK SHORTWAVE. ANY COOLING CLOUDS OR ISOLATED RAIN WILL BE TOO
LATE IN THE DAY TO AFFECT TEMPERATURES...SO THE VERY HOT
CONDITIONS WILL BE RELENTLESS AGAIN. THE ONLY THING PREVENTING
MORE DANGEROUS HEAT STRESS IS THE AFTERNOON HUMIDITY HAS BEEN
FALLING IN MANY AREAS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND THAT WILL LIKELY
OCCUR AGAIN OVER INLAND AREAS.

THE 500 MB HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO BECOME CENTERED FARTHER WEST
WEDNESDAY...BUT THE RIDGE AXIS WILL CONTINUE TO EXTEND WEST INTO
PORTIONS OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND WESTERN GULF COAST.
THIS WILL MAINTAIN THE HOT TEMPERATURES AT THE SURFACE AND WARM
AIR IN THE MID LEVELS. THE ONLY PLACE THAT MIGHT SEE SOME ISOLATED
LATE AFTERNOON CONVECTION IS NEAR THE SEABREEZE AND LAKE BREEZE
BOUNDARIES SOUTH OF LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN AND ON THE MISSISSIPPI
COAST WITH SOME HELP FROM ONE OR TWO WEAK DISTURBANCES ROTATING
AROUND THE UPPER HIGH. ANY THICKER OR HIGHER COVERAGE CONVECTIVE
CLOUDS WILL BE TOO LATE IN THE DAY TO CUT INTO THE HIGH
TEMPERATURES. HAVE EXTENDED THE HEAT ADVISORY THROUGH 7 PM
WEDNESDAY.

.LONG TERM...
THE MODELS HAVE TRENDED DRIER SINCE THIS TIME YESTERDAY WHICH IS
NO SURPRISE GIVEN WE ARE IN A WORSENING DROUGHT. THE MID LEVEL
RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL BEGIN TO EXPAND BACK EAST INTO
THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND GULF COAST REGION THROUGH THE
WEEKEND BEFORE GETTING SUPPRESSED A BIT TOWARDS EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THE POSITION OF THE RIDGE MAY ALLOW FOR A VERY WEAK DISTURBANCE TO
ROTATE DOWN UPON US...BUT WILL MAINLY BE COUNTING ON THE LAKE AND
SEA BREEZE BOUNDARIES AND CONTINUED STRONG DAYTIME HEATING TO
PRODUCE ANY ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE EXTENDED MOS
GUIDANCE IS SHOWING A SLIGHT INCREASE IN DEWPOINTS AS WE HEAD
TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK...SO HEAT INDICES ARE LIKELY TO STILL
REACH NEAR 105 OR HIGHER EVEN AS THE HIGH TEMPERATURES LOWER FROM
THE THE UPPER 90S AND 100 BACK DOWN TO THE MID 90S. WILL MENTION
THIS LONG DURATION THREAT IN THE HEAT ADVISORY STATEMENT AND
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

&&

AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE AT ALL TERMINALS...AS STRONG
RIDGING THROUGHOUT THE ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN CONTINUES. THIS STRONG
RIDGING CONTINUES TO KEEP A LAYER OF WARM AIR ALOFT THAT IS
EFFECTIVELY CAPPING OFF MOST CLOUD DEVELOPMENT AND ANY CHANCES OF
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. AS TEMPS HOLD CLOSER TO THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND
80...FOG REDUCING VIS TO IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE NEARLY IMPOSSIBLE.

17
&&

MARINE...

GRADIENT FLOW WILL INCREASE LATER TODAY...AS A WEAK BOUNDARY
SLIDES INTO THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE TO THE WEST...COMBINED WITH
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TO THE EAST MAY CAUSE SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE
CAUTION CONDITIONS STARTING TONIGHT. THE GRADIENT WILL WEAKEN OVER
THE WEEKEND...AS THE BOUNDARY WASHES OUT...AND THE WEAK AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE BECOMES MORE CENTERED OVER THE FORECAST AREA.


New Orleans Local Weather thread - ROLLTIDE - 06-24-2009 03:12 AM

CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION INTO W CENTRAL AND SRN FL...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP FROM THE
CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION ESEWD ACROSS THE GULF INTO W CENTRAL AND
SRN FL...AS AIRMASS DESTABILIZES BENEATH A BELT OF NLY/NNELY FLOW
ALOFT. WHILE DEGREE OF SHEAR SHOULD REMAIN INSUFFICIENT FOR
WELL-ORGANIZED STORMS...CLUSTERS OF MULTICELL CONVECTION SPREADING
SWD/SSWWD MAY PRODUCE LOCAL HAIL/GUSTY WINDS THROUGH MID EVENING.


New Orleans Local Weather thread - dkmac - 06-24-2009 07:18 AM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
459 AM CDT WED JUN 24 2009

.SHORT TERM...
THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL BE HIGH AGAIN TODAY AND WILL KEEP THE
HEAT ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH 7 PM TODAY. THERE MAY BE SOME
AREAS THAT FINALLY GET SOME TEMPORARY RELIEF FROM CLOUDS AND RAIN
LATE TODAY...AND THAT WILL COME TO A SURPRISE TO THE MOST OF US
WHO FORGOT WHAT RAIN LOOKS LIKE GIVEN OUR UNUSUALLY LONG JUNE DRY
SPELL AND MODERATE TO SEVERE DROUGHT CONDITIONS.

AM FINALLY SEEING A CHANGE IN THE UPPER PATTERN WITH THE MID/UPPER
HIGH NOW CENTERED BACK WEST OVER TEXAS. THIS HAS NORTHERLY FLOW
OVER THE CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A
MOISTURE BAND EXTENDING FROM SOUTHERN ARKANSAS TO THE CENTRAL GULF
COAST REGION AND NORTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. GOES-SOUNDER PWAT
PRODUCTS SHOW VALUES FROM 1.75 TO OVER 2 INCHES OVER THE FORECAST
AREA AND THIS LOOKS ACCURATE GIVEN THE 00Z SOUNDING AT JAN HAD
2.16 INCHES. THE CAP HAS WEAKENED SLIGHTLY AND THERE SHOULD BE A
WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH PASSING SOUTH THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA
TODAY. GIVEN ALL THESE FACTORS...WILL KEEP A 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST FOR THE LATER AFTERNOON
AND EVENING HOURS EVEN THOUGH THE MOS POPS ARE 5 TO 10 PERCENT.
THE 3 HOUR NAM12 PRECIP PROGS APPEAR TO HANDLE THE EXPECTED
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT THE BEST. SPC DAY ONE OUTLOOK HAS MUCH OF
THE AREA IN A 5 PERCENT /SEE TEXT/ CHANCE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
FOR CONVECTIVE WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. THE WIND THREAT LOOKS VALID
GIVEN THE INVERTED V TYPE MODEL SOUNDING PROFILES. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE 1 TO 4 DEGREES COOLER THAN YESTERDAY...BUT STILL PLENTY
HOT TO PRODUCE DANGEROUS HEAT INDICES AND FUEL FOR THE LATE DAY
SHOWERS AND STORMS.

A LOBE OF THE MID LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL BUILD
BACK INTO THE FORECAST AREA ON THURSDAY WHICH SHOULD KEEP MOST OF
THE ISOLATED AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
CONFINED TO AREAS NEAR THE COAST AND TIDAL LAKES. HIGHS SHOULD BE
MOSTLY IN THE MID 90S...BUT A FEW AREAS COULD STILL REACH THE
UPPER 90S. HAVE DECIDED NOT TO EXTEND THE HEAT ADVISORY THROUGH
THURSDAY GIVEN THE EXPECTED SLIGHTLY LOWER TEMPERATURES...BUT
DANGEROUS HEAT INDICES AROUND 105 ARE STILL EXPECTED...SO THE HEAT
ADVISORY MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED IN LATER FORECASTS.

.LONG TERM...
HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL REMAIN HIGH THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE MID
LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL UNFORTUNATELY START TO
EXPAND EAST/SOUTHEAST TOWARDS THE GULF COAST REGION FRIDAY OR
SATURDAY WHICH WILL KEEP THE CHANCE OF DIURNAL CONVECTION
LOW...GENERALLY 20 PERCENT OR LESS. THE STUBBORN RIDGE SHOULD
WEAKEN QUITE A BIT EARLY NEXT WEEK AS AN UPPER LOW/TROUGH
DEVELOPS/MOVES OVER THE NORTHEAST AND MID ATLANTIC STATES. THE
COMBINATION OF A WEAKER RIDGE...AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT AND
MOISTURE POOLING SHOULD BRING A LITTLE BIT BETTER CHANCE FOR
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY.

22/TD
&&

AVIATION...
...PRELIMINARY 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINALS...AS A STRONG UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE GULF SOUTH. AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM WILL BE POSSIBLE TODAY...ALTHOUGH THEY SHOULD BE
LOCATED AWAY FROM ALL TERMINALS. THE BEST CHANCE OF ANY TERMINALS
SEEING ANY TS ACTIVITY WILL BE GPT AND MSY BUT STILL REMAINS AT A
20% COVERAGE.

&&

MARINE...

GRADIENT WINDS ARE BARELY FALLING INTO THE CAUTION CRITERIA THIS
MORNING. HAVE DECIDED TO KEEP THESE CONDITIONS HEADLINED THROUGH
10AM TODAY AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO THE NE SLOWLY MOVES THIS WAY.
IT IS THIS FEATURE THAT IS FORCING THE UNWELCOME HIGH TO THE WEST.
AS THE TROUGHING MOVES THIS WAY...THE HIGH IS STUBBORN AND CAUSES
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TO INCREASE IN RETURN CAUSING THE WINDS TO
SPEED UP. THE WIND CARRIES THE AIR PROPERTIES TO THE WATER SFC. WHEN
THE AIR IS COLD AND DRY...THE WIND IS VERY EFFICIENT AT BUILDING
SEAS DUE TO THE DENSE AIR DRAGGING THE WATER SFC BETTER. BUT THIS AIR MASS
IS VERY WARM AND SOMEWHAT MOIST...WHICH IS THE EXACT OPPOSITE. DUE
TO THE LESS DENSE AIR...THE WIND IS NOT ABLE TO BRING SEAS UP TO
HEIGHTS NORMALLY EXPECTED AT AROUND 20 KNOTS. WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY
THE 3 TO 5 FEET SEAS BUT CURRENT AIR PROPERTIES WITH WINDS OF 15 TO
20 KNOTS MAY ONLY BRING ABOUT 3 FEET.

A SECOND FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE IN ON FRIDAY. AS A RESULT...A
GENERAL LIGHT WEST-SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL PERSIST INTO THE WEEKEND.
WINDS AND SEAS WILL EASE AS THE WEEKEND APPROACHES. 17


New Orleans Local Weather thread - ROLLTIDE - 06-24-2009 07:24 AM

Heat Advisory

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
531 AM CDT WED JUN 24 2009

...A HEAT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA AND
SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI UNTIL 7 PM TODAY...

.A RIDGE OF UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE HAS BECOME CENTERED FARTHER
WEST OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...BUT THE EXTENDED PERIOD OF VERY
HOT WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TODAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY
LOWER THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND...BUT HIGH HEAT INDICES MAY
REACH DANGEROUS LEVELS EACH DAY.

LAZ034>040-046>050-056>070-MSZ068>071-077-080>082-242100-
/O.CON.KLIX.HT.Y.0001.000000T0000Z-090625T0000Z/
POINTE COUPEE-WEST FELICIANA-EAST FELICIANA-ST. HELENA-TANGIPAHOA-
WASHINGTON-ST. TAMMANY-IBERVILLE-WEST BATON ROUGE-
EAST BATON ROUGE-ASCENSION-LIVINGSTON-ASSUMPTION-ST. JAMES-
ST. JOHN THE BAPTIST-UPPER LAFOURCHE-ST. CHARLES-UPPER JEFFERSON-
ORLEANS-UPPER PLAQUEMINES-UPPER ST. BERNARD-UPPER TERREBONNE-
LOWER TERREBONNE-LOWER LAFOURCHE-LOWER JEFFERSON-
LOWER PLAQUEMINES-LOWER ST. BERNARD-WILKINSON-AMITE-PIKE-WALTHALL-
PEARL RIVER-HAN****-HARRISON-JACKSON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...NEW ROADS...LIVONIA...
ST. FRANCISVILLE...JACKSON...CLINTON...GREENSBURG...MONTPELIER...
HAMMOND...PONCHATOULA...BOGALUSA...FRANKLINTON...SLIDELL...
MANDEVILLE...COVINGTON...LACOMBE...PLAQUEMINE...WHITE CASTLE...
PORT ALLEN...ADDIS...BRUSLY...BATON ROUGE...GONZALES...
DONALDSONVILLE...DENHAM SPRINGS...WALKER...PIERRE PART...
LABADIEVILLE...PAINCOURTVILLE...LUTCHER...GRAMERCY...LAPLACE...
RESERVE...THIBODAUX...RACELAND...LAROSE...DESTREHAN...NORCO...
METAIRIE...KENNER...NEW ORLEANS...BELLE CHASSE...CHALMETTE...
VIOLET...HOUMA...BAYOU CANE...CHAUVIN...DULAC...MONTEGUT...
GALLIANO...CUT OFF...GOLDEN MEADOW...PORT SULPHUR...EMPIRE...
YSCLOSKEY...CENTREVILLE...WOODVILLE...GLOSTER...LIBERTY...
CROSBY...MCCOMB...TYLERTOWN...PICAYUNE...BAY ST. LOUIS...
WAVELAND...DIAMONDHEAD...GULFPORT...BILOXI...PASCAGOULA...
OCEAN SPRINGS...MOSS POINT...GAUTIER...ST. MARTIN
531 AM CDT WED JUN 24 2009

...HEAT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING...

HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE MOSTLY IN THE UPPER 90S
TO NEAR 100 DEGREES. WHEN FACTORING IN THE HUMIDITY...LATE MORNING
AND AFTERNOON HEAT INDICES WILL REACH 105 TO 110 DEGREES. THERE IS
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A LATE AFTERNOON OR EVENING SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM WITH SOME COOLING RAIN AND GUSTS OF WIND...BUT MOST
AREAS WILL REMAIN HOT AND DRY.

HIGH TEMPERATURES FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY ARE EXPECTED TO DROP TO
THE MID 90S...BUT HUMIDITY VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN HIGH...AND
THIS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO PRODUCE AFTERNOON HEAT INDICES NEAR
105 DEGREES OR GREATER. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON OR
EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY...BUT MOST AREAS WILL
REMAIN HOT AND DRY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THE EXCESSIVE HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL MAKE A DANGEROUS COMBINATION
FOR INDIVIDUALS IF PROPER PRECAUTIONS ARE NOT TAKEN. EXCESSIVE
HEAT KILLS PEOPLE BY TAXING THE HUMAN BODY BEYOND ITS ABILITIES
TO COOL ITSELF. IN A NORMAL YEAR...ABOUT 175 AMERICANS DIE FROM
THE HEAT.

THIS IS A DANGEROUS SITUATION. CHILDREN...THE ELDERLY...AND
PEOPLE WITH CHRONIC AILMENTS ARE USUALLY THE FIRST TO SUFFER FROM
THE HEAT. HEAT EXHAUSTION...HEAT CRAMPS...OR IN EXTREME CASES...
HEAT STROKE MAY RESULT FROM PROLONGED EXPOSURE TO THESE
CONDITIONS. FRIENDS...RELATIVES...OR NEIG