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New Orleans Local Weather thread - ROLLTIDE - 05-19-2006 03:59 PM

000
Fxus64 Klix 192003
Afdlix

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans La
303 Pm Cdt Fri May 19 2006

.discussion...

Little Change In The Pattern Today...as Northwest Flow Remains In
Control Of The Area. Strong Subsidence Continues To Bring Clear
Skies And Warm Temperatures To The Area. At The Same Time...a
Thermal Ridge Over The Central Plains Will Continue To Expand Into
The Central Gulf Coast. Thickness Values Have Rose Back To Around
570...contributing To The Near To Slightly Above Normal
Temperatures Seen Across The Cwa. By Monday...a Strong Upper
Level Ridge Will Settle Over The Region...and Remain In Place
Through The End Of The Week.

In The Low Levels...southerly Winds Will Continue Through The
Weekend...allowing For An Increase In Low Level Moisture. This Low
Level Moisture Will Allow A Decent Cu Field To Develop Each
Afternoon This Weekend Through Early Next Week. However...a Strong
Cap In The Mid-levels Should Inhibit An Convective Development
Through The Middle Of Next Week. By The End Of Next
Week...a Deeper Southerly Flow Is Expected To Develop...which Will
Help Weaken The Cap. This Should Allow A Few Thunderstorms To
Develop By Friday In The Afternoon Hours. The Most Likely Area For
Development Will Be Along Any Seabreeze And Lakebreeze Fronts That
Develop.

Overall...a Warm And Dry Pattern Is Expected To Continue Through
Next Week.


New Orleans Local Weather thread - ROLLTIDE - 05-20-2006 06:01 AM

Fxus64 Klix 200741
Afdlix

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans La
241 Am Cdt Sat May 20 2006

.discussion...
Very Strong Surge Of Sfc Moisture Yesterday Morning Sh0wed Just
How Quickly The Weather In The Deep South Can Become Very
Uncomfortable. Dw Pt Temps Surged Around Midnight Yesterday
Morning From The Mid 50s To The Mid And Upper 60s. This Helped To
Keep Temps A Little Lower Than Guidance During The Day But Just
The Opposite For What It Felt Like.

This Scenario Is Expected To Continue With Overnight Temps Coming
Up A Few Degrees As Well. Since The High Sfc Moisture Content Of
The Air Prevents Us From Loosing Body Heat Efficiently Through
Sweating...overexertion Can Be Achieved Quickly. Be Cautious Of
This Especially During The Hottest Part Of The Day.

An Upper Low(more Of A Shear Zone Attm) Across The Northern Gulf
Will Begin To Develop Into More Of A Closed Upper Low With A
Better South To North Fetch Of Mid And Upper Winds. This Will Help
To Bring Moisture Surging Northward In The Mid Levels By Monday.
This Mixed With Daytime Heating Will Begin To Develop Partly
Cloudy Skies By Late Sunday Into Next Week.

Rain Will Be Unheard Of With Such Strong Dynamic Sounding
Profiles Until Later In The Week. Strong Subsidant Warming Is
Being Created From As Far Aloft As We Can See Down To 900mb. Since
The Lcl Falls Inside The Lower Of These Inversions...it Will Be
Hard To Get Any Kind Of Cloud Cover Until Sunday When By Late
Afternoon We Finally See The Lcl Fall Beneath The Inversion.

&&

.preliminary Point Temps/pops...
Mcb 90 65 88 66 / 0 0 0 0
Btr 90 67 89 67 / 0 0 0 0
Msy 89 69 87 70 / 0 0 0 0
Gpt 87 67 85 68 / 0 0 0 0

&&

.lix Watches/warnings/advisories...
La...none.
Gm...none.
Ms...none.
Gm...none.
&&

$$


17


New Orleans Local Weather thread - ROLLTIDE - 05-21-2006 05:41 AM

Fdlix

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans La
243 Am Cdt Sun May 21 2006

.discussion...
Getting To That Time Of Year Again When We See Tropical Waves
Embedded In The Easterlies Move Through The Central And Southern
Gulf. One Particular Quite Impressive Wave Is Currently Moving
Through The Western Carribean At Quite A Pace. The Other System Is
An Upper Trough/low Over The Western Gulf. These Two Features Will
Be The Main Focuses For Our Weather During The Week.

The Upper Low Is Beginning To Get Better Developed This Morning.
The Upper Low Will Eventually Open Up Once Again Into The Base Of
The Long Wave Trough Still Over The Ne. But First The Upper Low
And Its Mid Level Reflection Will Be Responsible For Jetting
Moisture Northward At These Levels. This Will Occur Today Through
Monday. Moisture Will Not Be Deep Enough For Any Precip Formation
Today But Should Be Sufficiently Deep Enough To Give At Least A
10% With No Mention Attm On Monday. Would Actually Like To Move
This Number To 20 But Would Also Like To See 12z Run To Make Sure
The Moistening Trend Stays The Same. The Upper Trough Will Move
Slowly East As The Faster Moving Tropical Wave Subducts The Trough
Starting Late Tonight.

The Interaction Of The Upper Trough And Tropical Wave Will Keep A
Slight Chance Of Rain Through Much Of The Week. Now For The Part
We All Know Is Coming.

The Tropical Waves Interaction With The East Side Of The Upper
Trough Will Cause An Area For Excellent Evacuation Of Air Aloft As
The Wave Connects The Sfc Air To This Mid And Upper Outflow
Region. Several Convective Complexes Are Expected To Develop From
The Central To Eastern Gulf Due To This Interaction. This Should
Make For Some Very Unsettled But Disorganized Weather Across The
Eastern Gulf. Some Of The Stronger Convective Areas Will Also
Create Several Convective Sfc Circulations Mainly Over The Eastern
Half Of The Gulf. Upper Level Conditions Look To Be Very Volatile
Due To High Wind Shear From The Upper Trough During The Week
Except For An Area From The Yucatan To South Florida. This Area
Will See A Lot Of Convection But Is Expected To Remain
Disorganized As Well. Main Flow And Direction Of Convection Will
Be To The Ne Over Fla.

&&


New Orleans Local Weather thread - ROLLTIDE - 05-22-2006 05:07 AM

Rea Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans La
409 Am Cdt Mon May 22 2006

.discussion...
Interesting Weather Expected To Occur Over The Next Several Days.
We Look To Be Transitioning From A Dry To Wet Pattern By The End
Of The Week. Upper Low Over The Western Gulf Is Showing Up Nicely
In Wv Imagery This Morning. The East Side Of Upper Lows Have To Be
Watched Very Closely During The Tropical Season And This One Will
Be No Exception.

The Tropical Wave In The Western Carribean Yesterday Is Now
Located Over The Western Yucatan Penn This Morning Moving West At
15 Knots. This Will Be The Catalyst That Will Cause A Large
Convective Complex To Develop On The East Side Of The Upper Low In
The Gulf. The Easterly Wave Will Interact With Strong Jet
Divergence Aloft Just To The East Of The Upper Low Causing A Large
Convective Complex To Develop Somewhere In The Vicinity Of 22.5n
92w. This Should Begin Around 12z This Morning. The Complex
Should Strengthen Today Eventually Causing A Convective Sfc
Circulation To Develop. Eventually This Complex Of Ts Will Drift
Northward And Weaken While The Convective Sfc Low Moves Nw And
Weakens Under The Upper Low. This Flare Up Of Ts Will Also Help
To Weaken The Upper Low As Latent Heating From The Complex Warms The
Cold Pool Aloft Destroying The Upper Low By Wed.

The Upper Trough Moving Into The West Coast Near The Baha Will
Move Ne Causing The Massive Upper Ridge Currently Over The
Rockies To Flatten. As The Upper Low Kicks Out Into The Plains...it
Develops A Weak Trough Southward Through The Plains States Causing
The Plume Of Moisture Oriented South To North Over The Central
Gulf To Continue Flowing North. This Will Keeping A Train Of Weak
Disturbances Moving Northward Through The Weekend Into The First
Part Of Next Week.

&&

.preliminary Point Temps/pops...
Mcb 89 66 89 69 / 10 0 10 0
Btr 89 67 90 69 / 10 0 10 0
Msy 88 70 89 71 / 10 0 10 0
Gpt 86 69 88 72 / 10 0 10 0

&&


New Orleans Local Weather thread - ROLLTIDE - 05-23-2006 06:07 AM

Fxus64 Klix 230814
Afdlix

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans La
314 Am Cdt Tue May 23 2006

.discussion...

Summer Regime Will Continue Across The Central Gulf Coast Through
The Week...as A Strong Low And Mid-level Ridge Remains Parked Over
Florida And Eastern Gulf...and A Strong Mid-level Ridge Sits Over
The Plains And Mississippi Valley.

Through Thursday...an Upper Level Low In The Central Gulf Will
Continue To Interact With An Inverted Trough Coming Up From The
Western Carribean. Some Enhanced Convective Development Can Be
Expected As These Systems Interact Due To A Highly Difluent
Pattern Setting Up Around The Base Of The Upper Low. Have Kept
Higher Pops Over The Coastal Waters...due To The Risk Of Seeing
Some Convection Move Into The Offshore Waters From This System In
The Central Gulf. The Upper Low Will Begin To Pull Out On
Friday...as A Shortwave Trough Dives Into The Midwest And Ohio
Valley. As The Upper Level Low In The Gulf Moves Out...it Could
Spark A Few Thunderstorms In The Afternoon Hours Across The Cwa
Wednesday And Thursday.

The Shortwave Trough Diving Into The Tennessee And Ohio Valleys On
Friday Will Also Spark A Few Showers And Thunderstorms Across The
Region. It Appears That Seabreeze And Lakebreeze
Boundaries...along With Any Old Outflow Boundaries In The
Area...will Be The Main Focus For Thunderstorm Activity On Friday.
Some Weak Negative Vorticity Will Advect In On Saturday...as A H5
Ridge Moves Through The Central Gulf Coast. This Enhanced
Subsidence Will Keep Pops Down For The Down...and Have Adjusted
Accordingly...dropping Pops To 10 Percent.

However...this Ridging Will Be Shortlived...with Another Inverted
Trough Riding From The Southern Gulf Of Mexico...and Interacting
With A Developing Shortwave In The Plains. A Much Deeper Moisture
Pool Will Develop...allowing For More Shower And Thunderstorm
Activity In The Afternoon And Evening Hours Sunday Through
Tuesday. Have Bumped Up Pops To Chance Category From Sunday
Through The Middle Of Next Week. Once Again...due To A Lack Of Any
Largescale Low Level Forcing...expect Thunderstorms To Mainly
Develop Along Small Scale Features Such As Seabreeze And Outflow
Boundaries.

Temperatures Will Remain Near Average Through The Period...with
Highs Between 85 And 90 Degrees Each Day.


New Orleans Local Weather thread - ROLLTIDE - 05-24-2006 06:18 AM

Fxus64 Klix 240742
Afdlix

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans La
242 Am Cdt Wed May 24 2006

.discussion...
Not Much To Change To Current Forecast Pack. Warmed Temps Slightly
For Today But No Other Changes To Any Variables. Day To Day Until
The Weekend Will See Moisture Depth To 700mb Enough To Keep Slight
Chance. Those Who See A Ts Will Be Where Boundaries Exist Or Some
Other Forcing That Is Strong Enough To Break Or Destroy The Cap
Above Any Particular Location. If You Are Lucky Enough To Get
One...it Will Dump A Good Bit Of Rain.

Model Solutions Hinting At The Next System Developing In The
Foothills Of The Rockies Beginning To Draw The Area Of Deep
Moisture In The Se Gulf Northwestward Friday Arriving Here By Sunday.
Have Increased Pops To 30% For This Reason But Will Have To Watch
Future Solutions Incase The System Out West Is Not Strong Enough
To Cause This To Happen.

&&

.preliminary Point Temps/pops...
Mcb 90 68 89 69 / 10 10 20 10
Btr 91 69 90 70 / 20 10 20 10
Msy 89 72 88 72 / 20 10 20 10
Gpt 90 71 87 72 / 20 10 20 10

&&

.lix Watches/warnings/advisories...
La...none.
Gm...none.
Ms...none.
Gm...none.
&&


New Orleans Local Weather thread - ROLLTIDE - 05-25-2006 06:26 AM

Area Forecast Discussion
000
FXUS64 KLIX 250916
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
416 AM CDT THU MAY 25 2006

.DISCUSSION...
MOISTURE WILL BEGIN A SLOW INCREASE IN HEIGHT THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. WE SHOULD SEE ENOUGH MOISTURE BY SUNDAY FOR
A GOOD PORTION OF THE AREA TO GET SOME RAIN.

SOME INTERESTING RESULTS FROM (ROS)GUIDANCE NUMBERS RAN LOCALLY
IS SHOWING CONVECTIVE INITIATION DUE TO LAKE AND SEA BREEZE
INTERACTIONS DIRECTLY OVER THE NEW ORLEANS METRO AREA MAINLY FOR FRIDAY.
THE MODEL IS PRODUCING 20% FOR TODAY AND 40% FOR FRIDAY OVER THE
METRO. FOR THIS REASON HAVE INCREASED POP NUMBERS FOR A SMALL BUT
SIGNIFICANT AREAL COVERAGE OF 30% FOR FRIDAY OVER THE SOUTH SHORE
OF LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN. KEPT THIS NUMBER AT 20% PERCENT TODAY.


New Orleans Local Weather thread - ROLLTIDE - 05-26-2006 08:12 AM

Today: Mostly sunny, with a high around 89. Southwest wind between 5 and 10 mph.

Tonight: Mostly clear, with a low around 72. South wind between 5 and 15 mph.

Saturday: Scattered showers and thunderstorms. Partly cloudy, with a high around 87. Calm wind becoming south around 5 mph. Chance of precipitation is 30%.

Saturday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low near 74. South wind around 5 mph.

Sunday: Scattered showers and thunderstorms. Partly cloudy, with a high around 87. South wind between 5 and 10 mph. Chance of precipitation is 40%.

Sunday Night: Isolated showers and thunderstorms before 1am. Partly cloudy, with a low around 74. Chance of precipitation is 20%.

Memorial Day: Scattered showers and thunderstorms. Partly cloudy, with a high near 87. Chance of precipitation is 40%.

Monday Night: Isolated showers and thunderstorms before 1am. Partly cloudy, with a low around 74.


New Orleans Local Weather thread - ROLLTIDE - 05-27-2006 06:24 AM

A Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans La
321 Am Cdt Sat May 27 2006

.discussion...

An Upper Level Ridge Across The Eastern Conus Will Continue To Be
Dominant Feature Through The Middle Of The Week. As A
Result...summer Conditions Are Expected To Persist...with
Temperatures Near To Slightly Above Normal...and Diurnally Induced
Convection Each Day. The Convection Should Become A Bit More
Widespread Monday Into Tuesday...as Some Deeper Midlevel Moisture
Advects In From The Gulf Of Mexico On The Back Of A Weak Inverted
Trough. The Most Likely Areas For Convective Development Will Near
Remnant Outflow Boundaries...and Along Seabreeze/lakebreeze
Fronts.

Going Into The End Of The Week...a Trough Of Low Pressure Will Push Into
The Midwest And The Northeast. This Will Flatten Out The Eastern
Ridge...and Allow A Cold Front To Pull Into The Southeast And
Southern Plains. There Is Some Model Disagreement On The Strength
Of This System...with The Gfs Pulling The Front Through The Cwa On
Friday...and Stalling It Over The Northern Gulf Of Mexico.
However...it Appears The System Will Be Positively Tilted...which
Would Keep The Best Dynamics And Forcing Well To The North Into
The Midatlantic States And Northeast. As A Result...have Leaned
More Toward The Ecmwf Solution...and Stalled The Front Out Over
North Louisiana And Central Mississippi. This Will Allow Warm And
Moist Southerly Flow To Continue Into The Weekend...and Have Kept
A Slight Chance Of Afternoon Convection As A Result. The Front
Should Begin To Wash Out By Sunday...as Ridging Begins To Build In
From The Plains.

&&

.preliminary Point Temps/pops...
Mcb 90 68 88 68 / 10 0 30 10
Btr 91 71 88 71 / 20 0 30 10
Msy 89 74 87 74 / 20 0 30 10
Gpt 88 72 87 72 / 10 0 20 0

&&

.lix Watches/warnings/advisories...
La...none.
Gm...none.


New Orleans Local Weather thread - ROLLTIDE - 05-28-2006 09:23 AM

Ea Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans La
321 Am Cdt Sat May 27 2006

.discussion...

An Upper Level Ridge Across The Eastern Conus Will Continue To Be
Dominant Feature Through The Middle Of The Week. As A
Result...summer Conditions Are Expected To Persist...with
Temperatures Near To Slightly Above Normal...and Diurnally Induced
Convection Each Day. The Convection Should Become A Bit More
Widespread Monday Into Tuesday...as Some Deeper Midlevel Moisture
Advects In From The Gulf Of Mexico On The Back Of A Weak Inverted
Trough. The Most Likely Areas For Convective Development Will Near
Remnant Outflow Boundaries...and Along Seabreeze/lakebreeze
Fronts.

Going Into The End Of The Week...a Trough Of Low Pressure Will Push Into
The Midwest And The Northeast. This Will Flatten Out The Eastern
Ridge...and Allow A Cold Front To Pull Into The Southeast And
Southern Plains. There Is Some Model Disagreement On The Strength
Of This System...with The Gfs Pulling The Front Through The Cwa On
Friday...and Stalling It Over The Northern Gulf Of Mexico.
However...it Appears The System Will Be Positively Tilted...which
Would Keep The Best Dynamics And Forcing Well To The North Into
The Midatlantic States And Northeast. As A Result...have Leaned
More Toward The Ecmwf Solution...and Stalled The Front Out Over
North Louisiana And Central Mississippi. This Will Allow Warm And
Moist Southerly Flow To Continue Into The Weekend...and Have Kept
A Slight Chance Of Afternoon Convection As A Result. The Front
Should Begin To Wash Out By Sunday...as Ridging Begins To Build In
From The Plains.

&&

.preliminary Point Temps/pops...
Mcb 90 68 88 68 / 10 0 30 10
Btr 91 71 88 71 / 20 0 30 10
Msy 89 74 87 74 / 20 0 30 10
Gpt 88 72 87 72 / 10 0 20 0

&&

.lix Watches/warnings/advisories...
La...none.
Gm...none.
Ms...none.
Gm...none.