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New Orleans Local Weather thread - dkmac - 06-10-2009 05:16 AM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
330 AM CDT WED JUN 10 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AT THE SURFACE EXTENDS FROM THE CAROLINAS INTO
THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO WITH THE UPPER HIGH OVER SOUTHERN
TEXAS AND NORTHEAST MEXICO. CONVECTIVE COMPLEXES ON WEST AND NORTH
SIDES OF THE UPPER RIDGE ARE SPREADING CIRRUS EASTWARD AND
SOUTHWARD. WHILE MOST OF THE AREA REMAINS MOSTLY CLEAR...WE COULD
SEE A CIRRUS DECK SPREAD INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH THIS
MORNING. TEMPERATURES GENERALLY MID AND UPPER 70S WITH DEW POINTS
IN THE MID 70S.
&&

.SHORT TERM...
VERY LITTLE CHANGE IN THE FORECAST PATTERN WITH RIDGING FORECAST
TO CONTINUE ACROSS JUST ABOUT THE ENTIRE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. CONVECTIVE COMPLEXES ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE ROLLING ACROSS THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY...BUT
AT THIS TIME...ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN TO THE NORTH OF OUR AREA.
TEMPERATURES AT 850 MB STILL EXPECTED TO WARM ANOTHER DEGREE OR
TWO...SO THE WARMEST AREAS WILL END UP IN THE MID 90S FOR THE NEXT
FEW DAYS. 35
&&

.LONG TERM...
UPPER RIDGE ACTUALLY BUILDS EASTWARD BY THE WEEKEND...SUPPRESSING
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION EVEN MORE. ANY CONVECTION WILL LIKELY BE
ON THE MICROSCALE LEVEL...INDUCED BY SEA/LAKE BREEZE INTERACTIONS.
PERSISTENCE APPEARS TO BE THE BEST BET FOR A TEMPERATURE FORECAST
AT THIS TIME. AS AREA DRIES OUT...WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF
EVENTUALLY WE START PICKING UP A DEGREE OR TWO ON MAXES WITH DRY
GROUND. 35
&&

.AVIATION...
OTHER THAN A FEW HOURS OF MVFR VSBYS AROUND SUNRISE THE NEXT TWO
MORNINGS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE THE RULE. ANY CONVECTION WILL BE
EXTREMELY ISOLATED WITH THREAT NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO PLACE IN FORECAST.
&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO WILL KEEP LIGHT
WINDS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. SEAS IN THE 1 TO 2 FOOT RANGE
SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
&&


New Orleans Local Weather thread - dkmac - 06-11-2009 04:43 AM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
305 AM CDT THU JUN 11 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTER AT THE SURFACE CURRENTLY JUST TO THE SOUTH OF
LOUISIANA. UPPER RIDGE OVER GULF OF MEXICO. SEVERAL CONVECTIVE
COMPLEXES MOVING ACROSS MIDSOUTH. ONE OVER KENTUCKY...SECOND OVER
SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS AND THIRD OVER NE TEXAS. THE SOUTHERNMOST
COMPLEX WILL TRACK ALONG INTERSTATE 20 IN NORTHERN LOUISIANA...AND
STAY NORTH OF THE AREA. CIRRUS SHIELD WILL COVER MUCH OF THE AREA
FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS BEFORE DISSIPATING OR MOVING EAST OF THE
AREA. TEMPERATURES GENERALLY RUNNING 75 TO 80 AT 07Z WITH DEW
POINTS 70 TO 75.
&&

.SHORT TERM...
VERY LITTLE CHANGE IN SURFACE AND UPPER PATTERNS OVER OUR AREA
THROUGH SATURDAY. ANY CONVECTION THAT WOULD GENERATE OVER THE AREA
WOULD BE ON THE MICROSCALE LEVEL. CONVECTIVE COMPLEXES WILL
CONTINUE TO TRACK JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA. CANNOT RULE OUT
ONE COMPLEX REACHING OUR EXTREME NORTHERN AREAS AT SOME POINT OVER
THE NEXT 3 DAYS. WILL KEEP PRECIPITATION MENTION OUT OF THE
FORECAST AT THIS TIME...BUT WILL NEED TO CONTINUE MONITORING.

WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN THE PATTERN...CHANGES IN TEMPERATURES SHOULD
BE RATHER SMALL. IF GFS SOLUTION IS CORRECT...H850 TEMPERATURES
WOULD ALLOW FOR SEVERAL DEGREES OF WARMING OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
NAM SOLUTION IS NOT AS BULLISH ON THE WARMING...SO WILL HOLD
TEMPERATURES AT PRESENT LEVELS FOR NOW. 35
&&

.LONG TERM...
UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD MORE DIRECTLY INTO THE AREA BY EARLY NEXT
WEEK. THIS SHOULD SUPPRESS ANY CONVECTION DURING MUCH OF THE NEXT
WEEK. EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE IN TEMPERATURES...ALTHOUGH AS THE
GROUND DRIES...ADDITIONAL WARMING CANNOT BE RULED OUT. 35
&&

.AVIATION...
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO MOSTLY MAINLY REMAIN IN VFR STATUS
THROUGH THE MORNING WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE NORMAL PROBLEM SITES
MCB AND POSSIBLY BTR. CI BLOW OFF FROM CONVECTION MOVING THROUGH
THE ARKLATEX AND INTO THE ARKLAMISS WILL BE OVER THE REGION
THROUGH THE MORNING AND THIS ALONG WITH SOME LIGHT WINDS SHOULD
KEEP MOST SITES FROM SEEING VISBIES DROP TOO MUCH. CIGS PROBABLY
WON`T BE TOO MUCH OF A PROBLEM AS WELL AS LL WINDS ARE NOT TOO
STRONG AND NOT REALLY BRINGING IN MUCH IN THE WAY MOISTURE. AGAIN
THE MAIN CULPRITS WILL BE MCB WHERE MVFR VISBIES SHOULD DEVELOP
AROUND 9/10Z. NOT REALLY EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF IFR VISBIES
THANKS TO THE CI AND A LITTLE BIT OF A BREEZE. BTR COULD FOLLOW
SUIT SHORTLY AFTER BUT MSY AND GPT MAY ACTUALLY REMAIN IN VFR
STATUS ALL MORNING BUT TEMPO MVFR VISBIES AROUND 11/12Z COULD
OCCUR. BY 14Z EVEN WITH THIN CI OVER THE AREA ALL SITES WILL BE IN
VFR STATUS WITH ISLTD TO SCT CU DEVELOPING AROUND 16-18Z RANGING
B/T JUST OVER 3K FT TO 4500FT. /CAB/
&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN CENTERED OVER THE ERN HALF OF THE GOM
INTO NEXT WEEK WHILE NUMEROUS SFC LOWS DEVELOP OVER THE SRN
PLAINS TRACKING OFF TO THE NE. THIS WILL MOSTLY KEEP WINDS OUT OF
THE S-SW THROUGH THE SAME TIME FRAME. WINDS WILL NEVER GET REALLY
STRONG BUT THEY SHOULD APPROACH 10-15KT FRI AND INTO FRI AS THE
ONE OF THOSE SRN PLAINS LOWS TRACKS THROUGH THE LOWER MS VALLEY.
OVERALL NOTHING REALLY OF A MAJOR CONCERN AS WINDS AND SEAS WILL
REMAIN WELL BELOW CAUTION CRITERIA. /CAB/


New Orleans Local Weather thread - dkmac - 06-12-2009 04:01 AM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
240 AM CDT FRI JUN 12 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS CENTERED OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO
THIS MORNING WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM MEMPHIS TO DALLAS. UPPER
RIDGING REMAINS OVER NORTHEAST MEXICO. CIRRUS FROM A DEAD MCS OVER
TEXAS IS COVERING THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. TEMPERATURES
GENERALLY BETWEEN 75 AND 80 WITH DEW POINTS IN THE LOWER 70S.
&&

.SHORT TERM...
LITTLE CHANGE IN THE FORECAST PATTERN. UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO SHIFT
EASTWARD OVER THE WEEKEND. CONVECTIVE COMPLEXES WILL CONTINUE TO
STAY TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA. CANNOT RULE OUT SOMETHING REACHING
INTO NORTHERN SECTIONS FROM A DYING COMPLEX...BUT CHANCES ARE NOT
HIGH ENOUGH TO MENTION IN FORECAST. MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES ARE
RATHER WARM AND WILL KEEP THE AIRMASS OVER MOST OF THE AREA
CAPPED.

TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO RUN ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN ABOUT
THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE AREA REACHING THE MIDDLE 90S...OR ABOUT
5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. 35
&&

.LONG TERM...
UPPER RIDGE BECOMES CENTERED OVER THE AREA BY EARLY IN THE WORK
WEEK...AND REMAINS OVER THE AREA FOR THE REST OF NEXT WEEK.
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL REMAIN EXTREMELY LIMITED.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL AS WELL. 35
&&

.AVIATION...
/PRELIMINARY 12Z DISCUSSION/
MOSTLY QUIET IN THE AVIATION FRONT. AT 8Z ALL SITES WERE STILL WELL
INTO VFR STATUS WITH JUST CI BLOW OFF OVER THE AREA AGAIN FROM
CONVECTION THAT OCCURRED IN EAST TX LATE YESTERDAY. STILL EXPECT
MVFR CONDITIONS WITH TEMPO IFR TO DEVELOP AT MCB AROUND 11-12Z. BY
14Z THOUGH BOTH VISBIES AND CIGS SHOULD IMPROVE ENOUGH TO GET MCB
BACK INTO VFR. AFTER THAT WITH BOTH THE UPPER RIDGE AND A SFC HIGH
DOMINATING THE REGION VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST OVER THE ENTIRE
AREA THROUGH THIS EVN. /CAB/
&&

.MARINE...
QUIET ON MARINE SIDE FOR THAT FACT AS WELL AND FOR THE FORESEEABLE
FUTURE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE NRN GULF WELL INTO NEXT
WEEK. AT THE SAME TIME MULTIPLE SFC LOWS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE SRN
PLAINS TRACKING OFF TO THE NE. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP WINDS
MOSTLY OUT OF THE SW AND LIGHT THROUGH MUCH OF THE FCST. AS FOR
WAVE HEIGHTS THEY WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM 1-2FT AND PROVIDE NO
PROBLEM FOR BOATERS FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT 5-7 DAYS. /CAB/
&&


New Orleans Local Weather thread - dkmac - 06-13-2009 04:54 AM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
246 AM CDT SAT JUN 13 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE AND MID-LEVEL RIDGING REMAINS IN PLACE OVER THE REGION.
THIS HAS LED TO LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS TONIGHT ACROSS THE AREA.
A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDS ACROSS CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI AND
ALABAMA WITH A FEW STORMS JUST NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY. TEMPERATURES
ACROSS THE REGION HAVE GENERALLY FALLEN INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S
THUS FAR...AND SHOULD DROP A FEW MORE DEGREES BEFORE SUNRISE.
DEWPOINTS REMAIN AROUND 70 DEGREES.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
THERE ARE ONLY SO MANY WAYS TO SAY THE SAME THING...AND I THINK I
HAVE PROBABLY USED THEM ALL OVER THE LAST WEEK. SO AT THE RISK OF
PLAGIARIZING MY OWN PREVIOUS DISCUSSIONS...HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS
WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD AS SURFACE AND MID-LEVEL
RIDGING CONTINUE TO SUPPRESS CONVECTION ACROSS THE REGION.

WITH THE STUBBORN MID-LEVEL RIDGE FORECAST TO STICK AROUND FOR A
WHILE LONGER...THERE WILL BE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANCE OF RAIN UNTIL
FURTHER NOTICE. ALL SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCES ARE FORECAST TO RIDE
ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE AND REMAIN WELL TO THE NORTH OF
THE LOCAL FORECAST AREA. WITH THAT SAID...AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES
WILL CONTINUE TO REACH WELL INTO THE 90S AS CLEAR TO PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES ALLOW PLENTY OF SUNSHINE TO HEAT THE SURFACE.

THERE IS A SMALL GLIMMER OF HOPE THAT A FEW SHOWERS AND/OR
THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THE
MID-LEVEL RIDGE IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN JUST SLIGHTLY WHICH SHOULD
HELP TO ERODE THE INVERSION THAT HAS BEEN PERSISTENT OVER THE LAST
WEEK OR SO. WITH AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE...AND COLUMN
PWAT VALUES AROUND 1.75 INCHES...THIS COULD BE JUST ENOUGH TO FIRE
OFF A FEW SHWRS AND TSTMS. WILL GO AHEAD AND INCREASE POPS
SLIGHTLY INTO THE 15-20 PERCENT RANGE AND MENTION A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF AFTERNOON SHWRS/TSTMS.

BY FRIDAY...THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE WILL ONCE AGAIN TAKE A STRONG HOLD
OF THE REGION AND CUT OFF ANY CHANCE OF PRECIP.

&&

.AVIATION...
ANOTHER QUIET NIGHT AND DAY EXPECTED ON THE AVIATION FRONT. BY 8Z
ALL SITES WERE STILL WELL INTO VFR STATUS WITH JUST CI BLOWING OVER
THE AREA ONCE AGAIN FROM CONVECTION THAT OCCURRED IN EAST TX. AS FOR
THE NEXT 24 HRS PERSISTENCE WILL RULE. MCB IS THE ONLY AREA WHERE I
COULD SEE VISBIES RESTRICTIONS OCCURRING AND THAT HAPPENS IT WOULD
BE RIGHT AT 11-12Z. NO LATER THAN 14Z ALL SITES WILL BE BACK IN VFR
STATUS. THIS WILL BE THE CASE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY WITH
FEW-SCT RAGGED CU AROUND 3500-4500 FT DEVELOPING THIS MORNING AND
THEN QUICKLY DISSIPATING AROUND 23/00Z.

&&

.MARINE...
NO CHANGE ON THE MARINE SIDE AND NOT LOOKING FOR MUCH OF A
CHANGE THROUGH AT LEAST THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE. AT THE EXPENSE OF
SNDG LIKE A BROKEN RECORD...HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC WILL REMAIN
OVER THE NRN GULF THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. AT THE SAME TIME
MULTIPLE SFC LOWS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE SRN PLAINS AND TRACK OFF TO
THE NE. WITH THIS SETUP WE CAN EXPECT WINDS TO REMAIN IN A RANGE
FROM S TO W THROUGH THE ENTIRE FCST. WINDS SPEEDS SHOULD BE LIGHT
THROUGH MOST OF THE FCST BUT WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDANT ON LOCATION OF
THE SFC HIGH AND HOW DEEP THE SFC LOWS ARE IN THE SRN PLAINS. SEAS
WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM 1-3FT.


New Orleans Local Weather thread - dkmac - 06-14-2009 05:08 AM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
300 AM CDT SUN JUN 14 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE STILL CENTERED OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO.
WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS REMAINS IN PLACE OVER THE REGION WITH
TEMPERATURES CURRENTLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S AND DEWPOINTS
GENERALLY IN THE LOW 70S. A WEAK BOUNDARY REMAINS STALLED ACROSS
THE CAROLINAS...NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI AND ALABAMA...AND INTO
ARKANSAS...OKLAHOMA AND TEXAS. CONVECTION IS OCCURRING ACROSS THE
PLAINS STATES WITH SEVERAL STORMS PRODUCING SEVERE HAIL AND/OR
WINDS. THIS ACTIVITY IS NOT FORECAST TO AFFECT THE LOCAL AREA.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
AFTER OVER A WEEK OF REHASHING THE SAME INFORMATION IN DIFFERENT
WORDS...THERE IS FINALLY SOMETHING TO DISCUSS...AT LEAST IN THE
LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST.

TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT
LOW AND MID-LEVEL RIDGING WILL REMAIN IN PLACE LEADING TO ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND BELOW NORMAL CHANCES OF RAIN. AS THE
GROUND CONTINUES TO BE DEPLETED OF MOISTURE...WILL FORECAST HIGHS
IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE WORK WEEK.

BY THURSDAY...MODELS BEGIN TO HEAD THEIR SEPARATE WAYS. WHILE THE
GFS AND ECMWF BOTH AGREE THAT THE ALEUTIANS LOW WILL BEGIN TO MOVE
TOWARD THE MAINLAND CONUS...THE ECMWF STALLS THE LOW/TROUGH OFF
THE PACIFIC COAST AND HOLDS THE STUBBORN MID-LEVEL RIDGE IN PLACE
OVER THE AREA WITH CONTINUED HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS.

IN CONTRAST...THE GFS CONTAINS A STRONGER AND MORE PROGRESSIVE
LOW. AS THE LOW MOVES EASTWARD...IT FORCES THE STUBBORN MID-LEVEL
HIGH TO RETROGRADE WESTWARD AND ACTUALLY ALLOWS THE TROUGH TO DIG
INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS. THIS SCENARIO WOULD HAVE SEVERE
WEATHER IMPLICATIONS FOR THE LOCAL AREA.

THOUGH THE GFS HAS BEEN SUGGESTING THIS SCENARIO ON AND OFF FOR
THE PAST COUPLE OF MODEL RUNS...AM NOT INCLINED TO MAKE HUGE
CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST AS IT WOULD REQUIRE A PRETTY POTENT
SYSTEM TO BREAK DOWN THIS RIDGE. WOULD LIKE TO SEE A BIT MORE
CONSISTENCY BEFORE COMMITTING TO SUCH A SIGNIFICANT CHANGE. FOR
THE TIME BEING...WILL BUMP UP POPS INTO THE SLIGHT CHANCE CATEGORY
FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AND WILL LEAVE TEMPS ABOVE NORMAL.


&&

.AVIATION...
AS PREVIOUS FCSTR MENTIONED THE FCST IS BASICALLY PERSISTENCE. NOT
REALLY EXPECTING MUCH OTHER THAN VFR CONDITIONS TO RULE THE DAY. MCB
MAY SEE VISBIES DROP INTO MVFR STATUS AROUND 11/12Z BUT THAT WOULD
BE VERY SHORT LIVED. AFTER 13Z ALL SITES WILL BE IN VFR STATUS WITH
ONLY RAGGED CU(3K-4500FT) EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN LATE THIS MORNING
THROUGH MID AFTN BEFORE CLEARING OUT ONCE AGAIN IN THE EVN.

&&

.MARINE...
STILL NO CHANGE IN THE THINKING WITH THE MARINE FCST. SFC
HIGH WILL DOMINATE THE AREA THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK WITH WINDS
RANGING FROM W TO S OVER THAT TIME. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL NEVER
REALLY BE TIGHT SO WINDS SHOULD STAY IN THAT 5 TO 15KT RANGE WITH
SOME HIGHER GUSTS AT TIMES. SEAS WILL REMAIN FROM 1-3FT.


New Orleans Local Weather thread - dkmac - 06-15-2009 05:31 AM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
253 AM CDT MON JUN 15 2009

.SHORT TERM...
I CAN BARELY REMEMBER A PHENOMENON WE USED TO CALL RAIN. WON`T SEE
IT ANYTIME SOON EITHER. SFC HIGH REMAINS LOCKED OVER THE NORTHERN
GULF WHILE THE UPPER HIGH REMAINS OVER THE TX COASTAL BEND. THIS
BASICALLY ANCHORS THE MID LEVEL HIGH ABOUT 100 MILES SOUTH OF THE LA
COASTLINE. THIS IS THE PART THAT ALL THE MCS AND OTHER ACTIVITY IS
ROTATING AROUND. THE DIAGONAL STACKED HIGH DOES NOT WANT TO GIVE
UP ANYTIME SOON EITHER. SOMETHING THAT WOULD SIMPLY DISPLACE THE
SFC HIGH WOULD HELP SUCH AS AN EASTERLY WAVE. IN THIS CASE...THE
UPPER HIGH WOULD HELP HELP INDUCE MARITIME ACTIVITY AND DAYTIME TS
OVER LAND WITH A GOOD MOISTURE PROFILE UP TO 700MB.

EACH DAY WE ALSO FIND THE OVERWHELMING MAJORITY OF THE GULF
WATERS IN FULL SUNLIGHT WITH BARELY ANY CLOUDS. THIS IS NOT THE
BEST THING AS WE CONTINUE INTO HURRICANE SEASON SINCE THE GULF
WATERS WILL BE PRIMED WITH AN ABUNDANCE OF HEAT LATER IN THE
SUMMER.

.LONG TERM...
LOOKING FOR ANY GLIMMER OF HOPE WITH RAINFALL ON THE HORIZON...AN EASTERLY
WAVE LOOKS TO ENTER THE GULF BY FRI. THIS MAY BE ENOUGH TO DISLOCATE
THE SFC HIGH AND MOVE IT WEST. A FRONT IS EXPECTED TO VISIT THE
RED RIVER VALLEY AREA UP THROUGH TENNESSEE. THIS WIL ONLY HELP TO
INTENSIFY THE SUBSIDENT PROFILE OVER THE GULF SOUTH REINFORCING
AND STRENGTHENING THE MID/SFC HIGH AS IT MOVES WEST BY SAT. AS THE
WAVE MOVES WEST DRYING WILL COMMENCE OVER THE TROUGH AXIS CAUSING
SH/TS TO DECAY SAT EVENING AND SUN. HOPEFULLY THIS WON`T HAPPENN
UNTIL THE FEATURE IS WEST OF OUR AREA. THE SFC HIGH MAY PARK
ITSELF OVER THE UPPER TX COAST FOR A FEW DAYS STARTING SUN
CAUSING AN OFFSHORE FLOW WHICH MAY RESULT IN SOME OF THE WARMEST
TEMPS SEEN SO FAR.

&&

.AVIATION...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT WILL LEAD TO MVFR VISBIES
DEVELOPING OVER A FEW SITES AROUND 11/12Z THIS MORNING. NOT EVEN
EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF CIRRUS TONIGHT SO THIS SHOULD HELP GET
THOSE LOWER VISBIES UNLIKE THE PAST FEW NIGHTS. MVFR CIGS MAY ALSO
DEVELOP JUST BEFORE SUNRISE BUT BOTH VISBIES AND CIGS WILL IMPROVE
AFTER 14Z. AFTER THAT I EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO RULE THROUGHOUT THE
REMAINDER OF THE DAY AND THROUGH THE EVN. /CAB/

&&

.MARINE...QUIET AND UNEVENTFUL FCST FOR THE COASTAL WATERS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEK. THE BROKEN RECORD CONTINUES AS HIGH
PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO DOMINATE THE NRN GULF THROUGH THE WORK WEEK
AND INTO THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL HELP KEEP WINDS ON THE LIGHTER END
RANGING FROM W TO S. SEAS TO CONTINUE TO REMAIN IN A RANGE FROM
1-3FT. /CAB/


New Orleans Local Weather thread - dkmac - 06-16-2009 05:14 AM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
236 AM CDT TUE JUN 16 2009

.SHORT TERM...
AT THIS POINT...I WOULD SETTLE FOR A WEAK TROPICAL DISTURBANCE.

THERE IS REALLY NO GOOD NEWS TO GIVE...BUT I HAVE PLENTY OF THE
BAD. WE START OFF WITH THE FACT THAT ALL OF SE LA IS IN A MODERATE
DROUGHT ACCORDING TO THE PALMER DROUGHT INDEX WHILE SOUTHERN MISS
REMAINS ABOUT AVERAGE. FOR SE LA...THIS PUTS THE AVERAGE RAINFALL AT -2
TO -3 INCHES FOR A YEAR GOING BACK TO LAST JUNE. SOME INDICATIONS ARE
THAT WE COULD ALSO FALL INTO SEVERE DROUGHT (AVERAGE OF -3 TO -4
INCHES OVER A YEAR) WITH NO FORESEEABLE RAINFALL OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. AVERAGES CAN BE CONFUSING SO I WILL BREAK IT DOWN
INTO EASIER TO UNDERSTAND TERMS. AS IT STANDS...TO BREAK THE
MODERATE DROUGHT WE ARE EXPERIENCING...THE AVERAGE OF -2 TO -3
INCHES WOULD EQUATE TO BETWEEN 18 AND 25.50 INCHES OF RAINFALL
OVER THE NEXT THREE MONTHS OR 6 TO 8.5 INCHES PER MONTH FOR 3
MONTHS.

WITH A VERY DRY COLUMN...SOLAR INSOLATION IS VERY EFFICIENT AND IS
ABLE TO MAKE ITS WAY DOWN TO THE BOUNDARY LAYER BEFORE
ENCOUNTERING ANY REAL IMPEDENCE BY THE MOISTURE FOUND NEAR THE SFC.
THIS DOES NOT STOP THE HEAT THOUGH. AS HEAT BUILDS AT THE
SFC...TEMPS HAVE BEEN GAINING A DEGREE OR SO EACH DAY BRINGING US
TO RECORD TEMP LEVELS. THIS IS WHAT IS FCASTED OVER THE NEXT TWO
TO THREE DAYS...EITHER EQUALING OR OVERTAKING SOME OF THE AREAS
RECORD HIGHS.

.LONG TERM...
LOOKING OUT FOR EVEN THE SLIGHTEST CHANCE OF RAIN IS GETTING HARD
TO FIND. THERE IS A SUBTLE HINT OF WEAK 700MB THERMAL TROUGHING
OVER SOUTHERN MISS BY SUNDAY. CONDITONS LOOK TOO DRY ALOFT FOR
RAIN PRODUCTION BUT THE CLOUDS THAT MAY DEVELOP WOULD COOL THINGS
DOWN JUST A BIT. SOME LONG TERM SOLUTIONS CONTINUE TRYING TO PUSH
THE SFC RIDGE TO THE WEST BY ABOUT MID NEXT WEEK AND REPLACE THE
DRY COLUMN WITH MUCH NEEDED MOISTURE BUT I AM NOT CROSSING MY FINGERS.

&&

.AVIATION...
PRETTY MUCH A PERSISTANCE FORECAST. UNDER THE HIGH PRESSURE...SCT
CUMULUS WILL DEVELOP AROUND 13 OR 14Z...MAINLY AT KBTR AND KMSY.
MUCH OF THIS MOISTURE HAS BEEN MIXING OUT BY EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON
EACH DAY. ANY MVFR CONDITIONS SHOULD BE BRIEF...MOST LIKELY DUE TO
LIGHT FOG AT KMCB FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS AROUND SUNRISE. SFC HIGH
PRESSURE REGIME IN CONTROL...SO WINDS WILL RANGE FROM LIGHT AND
VARIABLE TO SW AT LESS THAN 8 KTS OUTSIDE OF AREAS PRONE TO LAKE/SEA
BREEZES. 35
&&

.MARINE...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER THE NORTHERN GULF AND IS
EXPECTED TO STAY THERE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. WINDS WILL RANGE
FROM 5 TO 10 KTS WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE EVENING HOURS OFF THE
MISSISSIPPI COAST. THAT AREA COULD SEE SEVERAL HOURS OF 10 TO 15
KNOT CONDITIONS. OVERALL...WIND DIRECTION SHOULD BE SW WEST OF THE
MS RIVER AND MORE DUE WEST EAST OF THE RIVER. WITH A MAINLY LIGHT
WIND FIELD...SEAS WILL STRUGGLE TO EXCEED 1 FOOT AND IS NOT
EXPECTED TO RISE ABOVE 2 FEET. 35


New Orleans Local Weather thread - dkmac - 06-17-2009 04:50 AM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
345 AM CDT WED JUN 17 2009

.SHORT TERM...
NO SURPRISES...ITS GOING TO BE HOT AND DRY AGAIN TODAY AND
TOMORROW AND FRIDAY ETC... ONE DIFFERENCE IS BEGINNING TO SHOW UP
IN GLOBAL SOLUTIONS BY THE WEEKEND. THE HUGE STACKED CONTINENTAL HIGH
THAT HAS US IN ITS GRIPS WILL BEGIN TO GET SHEARED NW TO SE. THIS
MAY CAUSE THE HIGH TO WEAKEN ON ITS EAST SIDE AS A LONG WAVE
TROUGH DIGS OVER THE SE BRINGING A BACK DOOR FRONT NEAR THE AREA
BY MID NEXT WEEK. ONE THING THAT WOULD BE PROBLEMATIC WOULD BE
STRONG TO SEVERE ACTIVITY DUE TO THE STRONG HEATING ONCE WE ARE
ABLE TO GET TS GOING. LETS FACE IT...SOONER OR LATER SOMETHINGS
GOT TO GIVE. HOPEFULLY...ONCE THE DOMINANT HIGH GETS SQUEEZED BACK
TO THE WEST...WHERE IT BELONGS...IT WILL STAY THERE.

.LONG TERM...
WE SHOULD SEE A VERY SLOW TREND START SATURDAY AS THE STACKED HIGH
STARTS TO GET UNWILLINGLY FORCED WESTWARD AND A BACK DOOR FRONT
MOVES EVER SO SLOWLY TOWARD THE AREA FROM THE NE. WE SHOULD SEE
THE "RING OF FIRE" TO THE EAST OF THE HIGH BEGIN EDGING THIS WAY
DAY BY DAY AND FINALLY REACHING THE AREA HOPEFULLY BY WED OR THU
OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

AVIATION...
CLEAR SKIES DOMINATE THIS AM WITH SOME MVFR CIGS DEVELOPING OVER
SOUTHERNMOST PARISHES. DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS DECREASING ENOUGH FOR
DEVELOPMENT OF RADIATIONAL FOG WHERE WINDS ARE LIGHT. WINDS
CURRENTLY RANGE FROM CALM TO NEAR 10 KTS AT KNEW...KMSY...AND KBTR
AND HAVE GENERALLY BEEN FROM SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST. VFR CIGS AND
VISIBILITIES WILL PREVAIL AT KBTR...KMSY AND KGPT TERMINALS
THROUGH THE PERIOD. AT KMCB...IFR CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP THIS AM
WITH CIGS POSSIBLY AROUND 600 FEET AND VISIBILITIES ABOUT 2 MILES
FROM 10Z TO 13Z.

&&

MARINE...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN CENTERED OVER THE NORTHERN GULF
FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. WINDS WILL RANGE FROM 5 TO 10 KTS
EXCEPT FOR PERIODS OF 10 TO 15 KT WINDS OFF THE MISSISSIPPI COAST.
WIND DIRECTION WILL REMAIN MORE FROM SW FOR LOCATIONS WEST OF
THE MS RIVER AND MORE FROM DUE WEST FOR LOCATIONS EAST OF THE RIVER.
GIVEN LIGHT WINDS...SEAS WILL GENERALLY BE 1 FOOT TO 3 FEET.


New Orleans Local Weather thread - dkmac - 06-18-2009 06:26 AM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
323 AM CDT THU JUN 18 2009

.SHORT TERM...
FINALLY...CONFIDENCE BUILDS WITH REGARDS TO SEEING AN INCREASE IN
RAIN CHANCES. NORTH AMERICAN GLOBAL MODELS INITIALIZING QUITE WELL
AND DOES A GREAT JOB ON PLACEMENT AND STRENGTH OF THE UPPER TROUGH
OVER THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE COUNTRY. THIS WILL BE THE TROUGH
THAT FINALLY MAKES THINGS HAPPEN FOR US. WE WILL WATCH THE NEXT
FEW DAYS AS THIS TROUGH LIFTS OVER THE EMMENSE RIDGE THAT
CONTINUES TO PLAGUE THE AREA. WE WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN IN THE
CENTER OF THE HIGH THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH NO CHANCE OF RAIN...BUT
THAT WILL BE THE BEGINNING OF THE END.

THE UPPER TROUGH FINALLY SWINGS INTO THE NE STATES ENTERING THE
ATLANTIC WHERE A GOOD BIT OF ENERGY MOVES INTO THE BACK SIDE OF THE
UPPER TROUGH CAUSING THE LOW THAT FORMS TO STALL AND MOVE BACK
TOWARD THE SW WHERE THE STRONGEST PORTION OF THE TROUGH WILL BE
LOCATED. THIS WILL HELP MOVE A COLD FRONT TOWARD THE SW STARTING
MONDAY NIGHT. BY TUESDAY NIGHT...WE SHOULD SEE THIS FRONT ENTER
THE AREA ALONG WITH SOME SH/TS. THE FIRST NOTICEABLE THING WILL BE
THE LINEAR AREA OF TS FROM TENNESSEE TO GEORGIA MOVING BACK TOWARD
THE SW MONDAY NIGHT. THE STACKED RIDGE FINALLY GETS FORCED WEST
DURING THIS PERIOD AND WE FINALLY SEE THE DESERT SW HEATING UP.
WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH SOME OF THESE TS SINCE THEY WILL BE CAPABLE
OF STRONG TO SEVERE WEATHER...ESPECIALLY AS THEY TAKE ADVANTAGE OF
THE BL`S THERMAL PROPERTIES. THE FRONT IS SUPPOSED TO MOVE INTO
THE NORTHERN GULF BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. COLD FRONTS ENTERING
THE GULF THIS TIME OF YEAR IS NOT ALWAYS GOOD NEWS THOUGH.


.LONG TERM...
BY MID WEEK THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH MOISTURE IN THE COLUMN TO
PRODUCE A DAILY DIURNAL FLUCTUATION IN POP NUMBERS. IT WILL BE
NICE TO NOT SEE ZERO FOR RAIN CHANCES. SOME DIFFERENCES FINALLY
COME TO THE GULF AS WELL. MODELS ARE INDICATING THE TROPICAL WAVE
ROUGHLY ALONG 45W MOVING INTO THE GULF AS AN UPPER LOW CUTS OFF
FROM THE WESTERLIES BY LATE IN THE WEEK AND MOVES WEST.

WAVES CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH THE GULF BUT THE LARGE HIGH OVER US
SUPPRESSES THEM SO MUCH THAT ALL YOU CAN SEE ARE SOME LOW LEVEL
TCU IN 11-3.9UM SAT IMAGES WAY OUT OVER THE GULF. BUT WITH THE STACKED
RIDGE OUT OF THE PICTURE...THESE WAVES WILL BE ABLE TO GENERATE
SOME SH/TS OVER THE DEEP GULF AND MAY ALSO PROVIDE SOME DEEP
MOISTURE ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST BY LATE NEXT WEEK. THIS IS
QUITE A WAYS OFF AND WE WILL HAVE PLENTY OF TIME TO LOOK AT THESE
WAVE FEATURES NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS HAVE SO FAR PERSISTED THROUGH NIGHT WITH
CLEAR SKIES AND NO BR AS OF YET. I DO EXPECT THIS TO CHANGE OVER A
FEW PLACES B/T 10/12Z WITH EITHER LOWERED VISBIES AND/OR LOWERED
CIGS. MCB AS ALWAYS IS THE PRIME PLACE OF CONCERN AND ONCE AGAIN I
EXPECT TO SEE VISBIES DROP TO AT LEAST 2-3SM FOR A SHORT TIME AND
MAYBE TEMPO 1SM. CIGS MAY BE A PROBLEM AS WELL POSSIBLY DROPPING TO
1KFT. BTR AND GPT MAY ALSO SEE TEMPO MVFR VISBIES/CIGS BUT THESE AND
EVEN MCB WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS ALL SITES WILL BE BACK IN VFR STATUS
BY 14Z. RAGGED MORNING CU IS EXPECTED AGAIN BUT BY AFTN SKIES WILL
BE CLEARING. /CAB/

&&

.MARINE...WELL THINGS WILL REMAIN QUIET THROUGH THE WEEKEND BEFORE
THE SFC HIGH FINALLY MOVES JUST TO THE WEST OF THE AREA NEXT WEEK.
UNTIL THEN GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE LAKE AND
COASTAL WATERS. BY EARLY MON MORNING A WEAK BNDRY WILL TRY TO PUSH
THROUGH THE REGION CAUSING WINDS TO VEER AROUND TO THE NW
APPROACHING 10-15KTS. SEAS WILL REMAIN IN THE 1-2FT RANGE UNTIL MON
MORNING WHEN THEY WILL PICK UP JUST A TAD. /CAB/


New Orleans Local Weather thread - dkmac - 06-19-2009 06:16 AM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
327 AM CDT FRI JUN 19 2009

.SHORT TERM...
A NEARLY STATIONARY HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE CONTINUES OVER THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THE MAIN PROBLEM OF THE DAY WILL CONTINUE TO
BE HOT AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES SOARING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 90S.

.LONG TERM...
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MAINTAINS ITS HOLD OVER THE FORECAST AREA
THROUGH TUESDAY. THE RIDGE FINALLY BEGINS TO RETROGRADE SLOWLY
TOWARDS THE WEST BY WEDNESDAY AS THE EAST COAST TROUGH DEEPENS.
THIS SHOULD ALLOW AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE AND AN ASSOCIATED
WEAK COOL FRONT TO MOVE VERY SLOWLY ACROSS SOUTHEAST EAST
LOUISIANA AND SOUTH MISSISSIPPI LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND INTO
WEDNESDAY...PROVIDING A MORE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH THE FORECAST. THE LONE
EXCEPTION WOULD OF COURSE BE MCB WHERE VISIBILITIES MAY BRIEFLY
DROP DOWN TO MVFR CRITERIA (5-6SM). OUTSIDE OF THAT LOOK FOR CLEAR
SKIES UNTIL LATE THIS MORNING WHEN RAGGED FEW/SCT CU BEGIN TO
DEVELOP AROUND 4500-6K FT. WHATEVER CU IS OUT THERE WILL QUICKLY
DISSIPATE LATE THIS AFTN/EARLY EVN. /CAB/

&&

.MARINE...
THE BROKEN RECORD CONTINUES. HIGH PRESSURE...LIGHT
WINDS...AND DRY WEATHER WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THAT SAID
THINGS WILL START TO CHANGE BY NEXT WEEK AS THE SFC HIGH RETROGRADES
SOME AND AS A WEAK BNDRY SLOWLY TRIES TO BACK DOOR ITS WAY INTO THE
REGION. THIS WOULD CAUSE WINDS TO VEER AROUND TO MORE OF A RANGE
FROM SW TO NW AND PICK UP IN SPEED SLIGHTLY. SEAS WILL BE ON THE LOW
END(1-2FT) THROUGH THE WEEKEND BUT BY NEXT WEEK MAY START TO BUILD
SLIGHTLY AS THE WINDS PICK UP. /CAB/