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New Orleans Local Weather thread - dkmac - 06-02-2009 05:18 AM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
401 AM CDT TUE JUN 2 2009

.DISCUSSION...
RAIN CHANCES WILL BE ON THE INCREASE OVER THE NEXT THREE DAYS AS A
NUMBER OF DISTURBANCES MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AND INTERACT
WITH AN INCREASINGLY MOIST AND UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE. THE FIRST
DISTURBANCE IS FORECAST TO IMPACT THE AREA TODAY. THE GFS REMAINS
QUITE AGGRESSIVE WITH THIS FEATURE AND GENERATES A FEW INCHES
WORTH OF QPF OVER THE COASTAL WATERS ALONG WITH A SURFACE LOW FROM
THIS CONVECTIVE COMPLEX. IT THEN TRACKS THIS LOW TO THE NORTHEAST
TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. ALTHOUGH THE GFS HAS BEEN RATHER CONSISTENT
WITH THIS SCENARIO...IT LOOKS SUSPICIOUSLY LIKE CONVECTIVE
FEEDBACK. THE NAM ON THE OTHER HAND IS CONSIDERABLY
DRIER...PARTICULARLY OVER LAND. THEN NAM DOES HOWEVER FORECAST
CONVECTION OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. THE ECMWF ALSO FORECASTS A
FAIR BIT OF CONVECTION OVER THE COASTAL WATERS TODAY WITH SOME
DEVELOPMENT OVER LAND AS WELL. ALTHOUGH THE 00Z SIL SOUNDING WAS
FAIRLY DRY...MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN INCREASING AND
DEEPENING TODAY. SURFACE DEW POINTS IN THE LOWER 70S WERE HUGGING
THE LOUISIANA COAST WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER EARLY THIS
MORNING. PLAN TO INDICATE CHANCE POPS ACROSS ALL BUT THE NORTHERN
ZONES TODAY WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES FOR RAIN ACROSS THE COASTAL
WATERS AND ADJACENT LAND AREAS. ONLY ISOLATED CONVECTION WILL BE
MENTIONED ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS OF THE FORECAST AREA.

TONIGHT...ISOLATED CONVECTION OVER LAND WITH GREATER COVERAGE OVER
THE COASTAL WATERS...ESPECIALLY THE EASTERN COASTAL WATERS...LOOKS
GOOD. ANOTHER DISTURBANCE ON WEDNESDAY SHOULD KEEP COVERAGE IN THE
CHANCE CATEGORY FOR MOST OF THE AREA. A STRONGER DISTURBANCE WILL
MOVE OUT OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND APPROACH AND MOVE ACROSS THE
LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY AS A NORTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPS ALOFT.
THIS FEATURE WILL PUSH A WEAK COLD FRONT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. A FEW STRONGER STORMS MAY ACCOMPANY
THIS SYSTEM LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.

IN THE WAKE OF THE SYSTEM THURSDAY...DRIER AIR WILL FILTER BACK
INTO THE AREA. RIDGING ALOFT WILL DEVELOP AND NOSE ITS WAY INTO
THE REGION FROM TEXAS AND THE SOUTHERN PLAINS OVER THE WEEKEND AND
RESULT IN DAYTIME TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. THE
WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE BEGINNING OF THE
NEXT WORK WEEK. 11

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. HAVE INCLUDED SOME 3-5SM
BR FOR AN HOUR OR SO AROUND SUNRISE. SCATTERED SH/TS WILL BE ROAMING
OVER THE AREA TODAY MAINLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF I12. A FEW OF THESE
MAY AFFECT BTR AND WILL ADD A TEMPO 3SM TSRA GROUP TO THE 12Z TAF
SET FOR MSY WITH A FEW TS EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER THE TERMINAL.
ACTIVITY SHOULD SUBSIDE BY LATE EVENING. THOSE SITES THAT RECEIVE
RAIN SHOULD ALSO PRODUCE 2-3SM BR TONIGHT. WILL INCLUDE THIS FOR MSY
BUT WILL SEE HOW BTR DOES TODAY BEFORE INCLUDING FOR THAT TERMINAL. 17

&&

.MARINE...
A FEW NOCTURNALS ARE DEVELOPING THIS MORNING AS A MARINE LAYER WITH
DEEP MOISTURE BEGINS TO MOVE BACK OVER THE AREA. THIS IS EXPECTED TO
FLAIR A LITTLE DURING THE DAY BRINGING SCATTERED SH/TS TO THE GULF
WATERS AND A FEW OVER LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN AS WELL. AN INTERESTING
FEATURE MAY DEVELOP IN THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF TODAY AND TONIGHT.
THIS MAY CAUSE WINDS TO INCREASE TO NEAR ADVISORY CONDITIONS BY LATE
TODAY. ATTM HAVE KEPT WINDS AROUND 15KT UNTIL WE CAN SEE WHERE THE
MOST CONVECTION FIRES TODAY. WILL STILL HAVE NO HEADLINES...BUT THIS
COULD CHANGE QUICKLY TODAY DEPENDING ON WHERE THE MAIN AREA OF TS
DEVELOP. ONGOING SH/TS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT AND WED THEN A
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THU NIGHT. WINDS AND SEAS WILL IMPROVE
BEHIND THE FRONT. 17


New Orleans Local Weather thread - dkmac - 06-03-2009 04:46 AM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
417 AM CDT WED JUN 3 2009

.SHORT TERM...
MORE WET WEATHER IS IN STORE FOR THE FORECAST AREA TODAY AS A WEAK
MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE NORTHWEST GULF OF MEXICO TRANSLATES
EAST NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION TODAY INTO TONIGHT. THE GFS
IS A LITTLE FASTER WITH THIS FEATURE THAN THE NAM AND ECMWF. THIS
TROUGH WILL HAVE PLENTY OF MOISTURE TO WORK. THE GREATEST PRECIPITATION
COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO BE ACROSS COASTAL ZONES AND THE ADJACENT
COASTAL WATERS. THE CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO TAPER OFF DURING THE
EVENING HOURS.

A SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING OUT OF THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS
WILL BE THE NEXT SYSTEM TO AFFECT THE AREA...LATE TONIGHT AND
DURING THE DAY THURSDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL PUSH A WEAK COLD FRONT
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND ACROSS THE COASTAL
WATERS THURSDAY EVENING AND NIGHT. THIS FEATURE MOVES THROUGH AS
NORTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPS ALOFT AND GFS FORECAST MODEL SOUNDINGS DO
INDICATE SOME DRIER AIR WORKING INTO THE MID LEVELS...THEREFORE
THERE COULD BE A STRONG STORM OR TWO CAPABLE OF PRODUCING GUSTY
WINDS THURSDAY. ALL OF THE CONVECTION SHOULD COME TO AN END
THURSDAY EVENING. 11

.LONG TERM...
DRY AND RATHER WARM WEATHER IS ON TAP FOR THE END OF THE WEEK AND
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS RIDGING ALOFT DEVELOPS OVER TEXAS AND THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS AND EXPANDS EASTWARD ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY AND GULF COAST REGION. ACTUALLY...OVERNIGHT MINIMUMS WILL
BE RATHER COMFORTABLE WITH DRY AIR IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION.
HOWEVER...MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES OVER THE WEEKEND WILL BE A FEW
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL ALTHOUGH HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL NOT BE BAD. IT
APPEARS THAT THE UPPER RIDGING WILL BE SUPPRESSED TO THE SOUTH BY
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK SO TEMPERATURES WILL EDGE DOWNWARD TOWARD
NORMAL LEVELS BY THEN...HOWEVER RETURN FLOW BY EARLY NEXT WEEK
WILL BRING HIGHER DEW POINTS BACK TO THE AREA. 11

&&

.AVIATION...
SCATTERED SH/TS WILL ONCE AGAIN FIRE OFF THIS MORNING BUT THIS TIME
OVER THE MSY GPT TERMINALS. BTR AND MCB WILL BEGIN TO SEE ACTIVITY
BY NOON OR SHORTLY THEREAFTER. WILL INCLUDE TEMPO GROUPINGS FOR
THESE VARIABLES. SOME IFR 1-3SM BR AT BTR AND MCB THIS MORNING WHILE
VIS SHOULD NOT BE A PROBLEM AT MSY AND GPT WITH CLOUDS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN OVER THESE LOCATIONS. AS UPPER DECK OVC120 CLEARS THIS
MORNING...THOSE LOCATIONS THAT SEE CLEARING MAY PICK UP A BKN010
DECK FOR A SHORT TIME. A COLD FRONT WILL THEN START MOVING THROUGH
THE AREA BY THU BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SH/TS. 17

&&

.MARINE...
WENT OUT WITH A CAUTION HEADLINE THIS MORNING BUT IT WILL BE FOR A
TIGHT AREA AWAY FROM THE COAST. HAVE WORDED THIS IN THE NEARSHORE
WATERS SECTION OF THE FCAST. WINDS WILL MAINLY BE HIGH IN AND
AROUND CONVECTION TODAY. WIND SPEEDS WILL LAY BY EVENING CAUSING
HEADLINES TO BE DROPPED AS WELL. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH
THE WATERS THU NIGHT. THIS MAY ALSO CALL FOR A CAUTION HEADLINE
THU INTO FRIDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE THEN SETTLES IN FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. 17


New Orleans Local Weather thread - dkmac - 06-04-2009 03:37 AM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
341 AM CDT THU JUN 4 2009

.DISCUSSION...
A SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND WESTERN/CENTRAL GULF COAST
REGION TODAY RESULTING IN FAIRLY WIDESPREAD COVERAGE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS AS PREVIOUSLY ADVERTISED. SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT
EXPECTED...HOWEVER SOME DRIER AIR IN THE MID LEVELS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE MAY RESULT IN A FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING
GUSTY WINDS. AS THIS SYSTEM PUSHES TO THE EAST TONIGHT...CONVECTION
SHOULD TAPER OFF OVERNIGHT ACROSS ALL SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA EXCEPT THE EASTERN COASTAL WATERS. DRY WEATHER WILL RETURN
FOR THE LAST DAY OF THE WORK WEEK AND PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND
AND INTO THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL BE
SOMEWHAT ABOVE NORMAL OVER THE WEEKEND AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
BUILDS/EXPANDS OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND GULF COAST
REGION FROM TEXAS AND THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. HOWEVER...OVERNIGHT
MINIMUMS WILL BE COMFORTABLE WITH RELATIVELY LOW DEW POINTS ACROSS
THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND. RETURN FLOW WILL COMMENCE BY LATE
SUNDAY/MONDAY BRINGING WITH IT A RETURN TO HIGHER AND MORE TYPICAL
HUMIDITY LEVELS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL
LOWER TO NEAR NORMAL VALUES EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE IS SUPPRESSED TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST. THE NEXT CHANCE
FOR RAIN WILL NOT COME UNTIL TUESDAY...OR MORE LIKELY WEDNESDAY...
AS A DISTURBANCE APPROACHES THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. 11

&&

.AVIATION...
CEILINGS WILL BE ALL OVER TODAY AS A FRONT NEARS THE AREA. OVERCAST
SKIES WILL HAVE PREVAILING SCT020 OVC110. WILL ALSO SEE SOME
PREVAILING RAIN IN AFTERNOON TAFS FOR MOST SITES. TEMPO GROUPS TO
CARRY TS AND BKN020CB. WINDS REMAIN WEST TODAY AND BACK AROUND TO
THE NORTHWEST BY EVENING. CEILINGS GO TO OVC015 TONIGHT WITH TEMPO
BKN005 AND ALL SITES FALLING INTO A RANGE OF 1-3SM VIS. 17


&&

.MARINE...
SEVERAL BUOYS AND PLATFORMS WITH AROUND 20 KNOTS DURING THE DAY HAVE
LAYED TO AROUND 12 KNOTS THIS MORNING OFFSHORE. WINDS WILL PICK UP
ONCE AGAIN TO 10 TO 15 KNOTS AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES. ATTM WE ARE
NOT EXPECTING HEADLINES WITH FROPA. HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE
NORTHERN GULF THROUGH A GOOD PART OF NEXT WEEK WITH NO REAL
ISSUES. 17


New Orleans Local Weather thread - dkmac - 06-05-2009 04:33 AM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
404 AM CDT FRI JUN 5 2009

.DISCUSSION...
GENERALLY TRANQUIL WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. THE UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE THAT PRODUCED THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ACROSS THE AREA
YESTERDAY WAS LOCATED OVER SOUTHERN ALABAMA EARLY THIS MORNING
WITH THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT EXTENDING ACROSS THE COASTAL
WATERS. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WERE CONTINUING ACROSS
THE OUTER COASTAL WATERS...HOWEVER FOR THE MOST PART THESE ARE
EXPECTED TO EXIT THE MARINE FORECAST ZONES BY SHORTLY AFTER
SUNRISE.

TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL BE QUITE COMFORTABLE TODAY
AND TONIGHT. AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING EXPANDS FROM TEXAS ACROSS THE
LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND GULF COAST REGION OVER THE WEEKEND...
DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB TO A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR. HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL STILL BE RATHER LOW WITH A
DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE...ALTHOUGH THEY WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE LATER
IN THE DAY SUNDAY WITH THE COMMENCEMENT OF RETURN FLOW. THE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO BE SUPPRESSED TO THE SOUTHWEST BY
TUESDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES FROM THE WESTERN CONUS
ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND INTO THE EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE COUNTRY.
AS A RESULT...TEMPERATURES WILL BE CLOSE TO NORMAL. HOWEVER...THE
RIDGE IS FORECAST TO EXPAND BACK ACROSS THE REGION BY LATE NEXT
WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES AGAIN INCREASING A BIT. AT THIS TIME IT
APPEARS THAT RAIN CHANCES WILL BE QUITE LIMITED THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF SEEING ISOLATED CONVECTION
BEING TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. 11

&&

.AVIATION...
A BROAD STRATUS DECK ASSOCIATED WITH AN EXITING SURFACE LOW...AND
WEAK ELEVATED INVERSION WILL CONTINUE BRING MVFR CEILINGS TO ALL OF
THE TERMINALS THROUGH AROUND 15-17Z. THIS STRATUS DECK SHOULD THEN
MIX OUT...ALLOWING FOR VFR CONDITIONS TO DOMINATE FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. 32

&&

.MARINE...
A BRIEF PERIOD OF EXERCISE CAUTION CONDITIONS WITH WINDS RUNNING IN
THE 15 TO 20 KNOT RANGE WILL CONTINUE TO PERSIST THROUGH AROUND
12Z. HOWEVER...AS A SURFACE LOW CURRENTLY OVER LOWER ALABAMA AND
THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE CONTINUES TO PULL TO THE EAST...THE OVERALL
GRADIENT WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN. IN ADDITION...ANY WEAK COLD AND DRY
AIR ADVECTION TAKING PLACE IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW...AND ATTENDANT
COLD FRONT SHOULD BEGIN TO WANE. WITH THIS IN MIND...EXPECT WINDS
TO QUICKLY DIE OFF AFTER 12Z...WITH LIGHT WINDS AND CALM SEAS
PERSISTING INTO EARLY NEXT AS A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE PARKS ITSELF
OVER THE NORTHERN GOMEX. 32


New Orleans Local Weather thread - Southernbelle - 06-05-2009 05:53 AM

It's cold outside!! LOL


New Orleans Local Weather thread - Joe-Nathan - 06-05-2009 06:05 AM

southernbelle Wrote:It's cold outside!! LOL

Wait until tomorrow morning, 60!


New Orleans Local Weather thread - dkmac - 06-06-2009 04:00 AM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
343 AM CDT SAT JUN 6 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED AN ELONGATED 1015MB HIGH FROM THE
OHIO VALLEY TO EAST TEXAS. UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SHOWED A TROUGH AXIS
FROM THE CAROLINAS TO NORTHEAST GULF...RIDGE FROM LOWER LATS OVER
MEXICO TO MISSOURI AND NORTH NORTHWEST FLOW OVER LOWER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY. IN ADDITION...A POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH WAS NOTED FROM
NORTHERN PLAINS TO CENTRAL CALIFORNIA AND THE MAIN TROUGH OVER SK/AB.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
WEEKEND WILL REMAIN DRY AND PLEASANT FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. TROUGH
OVER SK/AB WILL DEEPEN AND ASSIST THE NORTHERN PLAIN/CALIF TROUGH
TO KICK EAST OVER ROCKIES BY SUNDAY. THE SK/AB TROUGH WILL BECOME
THE PREDOMINANT FEATURE...DEEPENING OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND
PRODUCE SW FLOW FROM SW CONUS TO THE GREAT LAKES. AS A
RESULT...THE RIDGE AXIS WILL DAMPEN BUT SHIFT THE AXIS FROM TEXAS
TO BAMA SUNDAY THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY. THE RIDGE AXIS IS EXPECTED
TO RETREAT BACK OVER TEXAS...PLACING A TEMPO NORTHWEST FLOW OVER
THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. GFS HAS A FEW WAVES ROTATING AROUND
THE RIDGE TO CENTRAL GULF COAST STARTING TUESDAY AND POSSIBLY
WEDNESDAY. WILL INSERT A SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR EAST ZONES TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY. RIDGE EXPANDS EAST AND RAIN CHANCES DECREASE TO LESS
THAN 20 PERCENT AFTER THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...
...PRELIMINARY 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

VFR CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE AT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD AS A STRONG SURFACE RIDGE SETTLES OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF
MEXICO. HOWEVER...A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR VISIBILITIES MAY DEVELOP
AT KMCB BETWEEN 10 AND 12Z...AS WEAK SURFACE INVERSION TAKES HOLD.
HOWEVER...ANY VISIBILITY IMPACTS WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS THE
INVERSION QUICKLY MIXES OUT. 32

&&

.MARINE...

A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN PARKED OVER THE NORTHERN
GULF OF MEXICO. AS A RESULT...WEAK GRADIENT FLOW WILL DOMINATE.
LIGHT WINDS AND CALM SEAS WITH WAVE HEIGHTS OF 1 TO 2 FEET CAN BE
EXPECTED THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. 32


New Orleans Local Weather thread - dkmac - 06-07-2009 06:03 AM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
329 AM CDT SUN JUN 7 2009

.SHORT TERM...
LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED A 1014MB HIGH OVER SOUTHEAST CONUS
AND OVER NORTHEAST GULF AND A DEEPENING 998MB LOW OVER EAST
COLORADO. IN ADDITION...MODERATE SOUTH FLOW WAS NOTED TEXAS AND
OKLAHOMA. UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SHOWED A RIDGE OVER TEXAS AND NORTH
FLOW OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. SOME HIGH CLOUDINESS WAS
NOTED OVER NORTH AND CENTRAL LOUISIANA AND SOUTHWEST MISSISSIPPI.
IN ADDITION...SHORT WAVE WAS LOCATED OVER NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS.
THIS SHORT WAVE ALONG WITH OTHER WEAKER WAVES WILL DAMPEN THE
RIDGE OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TODAY THROUGH MONDAY. AS A
RESULT...LOWERED HEIGHTS WILL PRODUCE HIGHS IN THE 85 TO 90 DEGREE
RANGE TODAY AND MONDAY.

.LONG TERM...
A SERIES OF SHORT WAVES WILL DAMPEN THE RIDGE OVER TEXAS AND THE
WEST GULF TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...THE ACTIVE NORTHERN
STREAM WILL REMAIN NORTH OF FORECAST AREA AND THE WEST FLOW
EXPECTED TO BE IN PLACE TO KEEP DEEP MID LAYER MOISTURE AWAY. AS A
RESULT...DRY FORECAST WILL CONTINUE. WILL HEDGE SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORM FOR THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...
...PRELIMINARY 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...
PATCHY FOG ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK SURFACE INVERSION WILL LINGER
THROUGH AROUND 13Z THIS MORNING...BRINGING MVFR CONDITIONS TO
KMCB. HOWEVER...THIS INVERSION SHOULD QUICKLY MIX OUT AFTER
13Z...WITH VFR CONDITIONS DOMINATING THROUGH AROUND 08Z TOMORROW.
AFTER 08Z...ANOTHER WEAK INVERSION SHOULD DEVELOP DUE TO LIGHT
WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONG SURFACE RIDGE
CENTERED OVER THE REGION. THIS INVERSION WILL ONCE AGAIN ALLOW FOR
SOME FOG TO DEVELOP AT KMCB. FOG MAY ALSO BE POSSIBLE AT KBTR. AT
MOST VISIBILITIES WILL DROP TO AROUND 3SM...OR MVFR CRITERIA. 32

&&

.MARINE...

A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN CENTERED OVER THE NORTHERN
GULF OF MEXICO. AS A RESULT...WEAK GRADIENT FLOW WILL DOMINATE.
LIGHT WINDS AND CALM SEAS WITH WAVE HEIGHTS OF 1 TO 2 FEET CAN BE
EXPECTED THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. 32


New Orleans Local Weather thread - dkmac - 06-08-2009 04:51 AM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
250 AM CDT MON JUN 8 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ALONG ATLANTIC COAST...WITH UPPER RIDGE
EXTENDING FROM NORTHERN MEXICO INTO THE APPALACHIANS. COLD FRONT
EXTENDING FROM WESTERN IOWA INTO THE TEXAS PANHANDLE. CIRRUS
BLOWOFF FROM EARLIER STORMS IN TEXAS PROVIDING A LITTLE
CLOUDINESS...BUT OTHERWISE A QUIET NIGHT. TEMPERATURES RANGING
FROM LOWER 60S AT PQL TO LOWER 70S SOUTHWEST HALF.
&&

.SHORT TERM...
UPPER RIDGE HOLDS OVER THE AREA THROUGH MID-WEEK. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
INDICATE A VERY WARM LAYER...GENERALLY AROUND 12C AT 700 MB. THIS
SHOULD CAP ALL BUT THE STRONGEST LIFT OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. ANY
SIGNIFICANT MID LEVEL IMPULSES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN NORTH OF THE
AREA. WHILE POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION IS NON-ZERO...ANY AREAL
COVERAGE WOULD NOT BE LARGE ENOUGH TO MENTION IN ZONE PACKAGE AT
THIS TIME.

LOOKING AT FORECAST SOUNDINGS...24 HOUR DELTA T`S INDICATE LOWER
90S EXTREMELY REASONABLE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...AND EXPECT TO
SEE A FEW MIDDLE 90S BY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY IN AREAS AWAY FROM
MARINE INFLUENCE...SUCH AS BATON ROUGE AND MCCOMB. WILL TREND
TOWARD THE SLIGHTLY WARMER GFS/MAV NUMBERS. 35
&&

.LONG TERM...
PATTERN CHANGES LITTLE THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND...WITH SURFACE AND
UPPER RIDGING CONTINUING ALONG THE GULF COAST. TEMPERATURES AT 700
MB CHANGE LITTLE...AND SOME WARMING OCCURS AT 850. WHILE THERE ARE
HINTS IN THE MODELS OF A POTENTIAL BACK DOOR COLD FRONT
APPROACHING NEXT WEEKEND...DO NOT SEE A STRONG ENOUGH SIGNAL TO
DIVERGE FROM THE PREVIOUS DRY FORECAST.

EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN 3-5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...AND IT
IS POSSIBLE THIS MAY BE SLIGHTLY UNDERDONE BY NEXT WEEKEND. MEX
GUIDANCE GENERALLY TRIES TO TEND TOWARD CLIMATOLOGY AT DAY 7 AND
8...BUT NOT SEEING THAT IN THE NUMBERS. ALSO...ANTECEDANT
CONDITION HAVE BEEN RATHER DRY FOR MUCH OF THE AREA...WHICH
GUIDANCE DOESN`T ALWAYS CATCH. 35
&&

.AVIATION...
/PRELIMINARY 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION/
A CARBON COPY OF SUNDAY IS EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING 12Z.
GPT AND MCB SHOULD HAVE LOWERED VIS NEAR 4SM THIS MORNING AND
AGAIN TUESDAY MORNING. BTR HAS A FAIRLY LARGE TD DEPRESSION...NOT
NEAR SATURATION THIS MORNING BUT SLOW INCREASES IN MOISTURE MAY
PRODUCE MIST AT BTR TUESDAY MORNING. MSY SHOULD CONTINUE WITH VFR
CONDITIONS WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS. ALL IN ALL...VFR WILL DOMINATE
AFTER SUNRISE AT ALL TERMINALS.
&&

.MARINE...
A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN CENTERED OVER THE
NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO. AS A RESULT...WEAK SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL
DOMINATE. LIGHT WINDS AND CALM SEAS WITH WAVE HEIGHTS OF 1 TO 2
FEET CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY.
&&


New Orleans Local Weather thread - dkmac - 06-09-2009 05:52 AM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
308 AM CDT TUE JUN 9 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE HIGH CENTERED OVER NORTHERN ALABAMA THIS MORNING WITH
UPPER RIDGE AXIS FROM NORTHERN MEXICO TO SOUTHERN GEORGIA. SEEING
SOME CIRRUS BLOWOFF FROM CONVECTION OVER NORTHERN TEXAS AND
SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA. IN ADDITION...SEEING A FEW CLOUDS AROUND 5K
FEET NEAR MCCOMB. TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS CONSIDERABLY HIGHER
TONIGHT THAN LAST NIGHT...WITH DEW POINTS BETWEEN 70 AND 75 THIS
MORNING.
&&

.SHORT TERM...
OVERALL PATTERN NOT EXPECTED TO CHANGE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
BOUNDARY EXPECTED TO REMAIN NORTH OF THE AREA...AS WELL AS ANY SIGNIFICANT
IMPULSES IN THE MID LEVEL FLOW. ANY CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WILL BE
ON THE MICRO OR MESOSCALE...AS HAPPENED MONDAY AFTERNOON SOUTH OF
LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN. TEMPERATURES MONDAY AFTERNOON WERE SLIGHTLY
COOLER AT 700 MB THAN ANTICIPATED...REMOVING SOME OF THE EXPECTED
CAP...ALLOWING CONVECTION TO DEVELOP.

GFS SOUNDINGS FROM 00Z SEEMED TO BE SOMEWHAT MORE REPRESENTATIVE
OF ACTUAL SOUNDING AT THAT TIME...AND TODAY SEEMS TO BE RATHER
SIMILAR. MODELS STILL SHOWING SOME WARMING AT 700...SO CAP WILL BE
THE MAIN FORECAST PROBLEM. WILL HAVE TO SEE WHAT MORNING SOUNDING
LOOKS LIKE COMPARED TO MONDAY. WILL KEEP 10 POPS IN FORECAST BUT
NOT MENTION IN ZONES OR WEATHER GRIDS AT THIS TIME. MODELS SHOW
EACH AFTERNOON TO BE SLIGHTLY DRIER THAN THE PREVIOUS DAY. WILL
TEND TOWARD GFS/MAV NUMBERS ON TEMPERATURES FOR HIGHS. 35
&&

.LONG TERM...
RIDGE AT 700 MB FORECAST TO REMAIN OVER OR VERY CLOSE TO OUR AREA
THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD BY GFS. ECMWF TRIES TO BRING A BACKDOOR
FRONT INTO THE AREA FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. WILL CONTINUE TREND
OF PREVIOUS FORECAST...GOING WITH GFS SOLUTION...WHICH IS MAINLY
DRY WITH TEMPERATURES ABOUT 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. 35
&&

.AVIATION...
/PRELIMINARY 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION/
LOW LEVEL SOUTH FLOW WILL INCREASE PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES UP
TO 1.5 TO 1.6 INCHES THIS AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY OVER BTR..MCB AND
MSY. THE INVERSION BETWEEN 750 AND 700MB MAY NOT BE STRONG ENOUGH
TO INHIBIT ASCENDING AIR THIS AFTERNOON...ALBEIT SLIM DEVELOPMENT
IS POSSIBLE. RELUCTANT TO KEEP TAF SITES FREE OF CONVECTION. WILL
USE VICINITY TO COVER LESS THAN 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF RAIN.
OVERNIGHT...AN INVERSION SHOULD ONCE AGAIN DEVELOP AT KMCB...WHERE
MVFR VISIBILITIES SHOULD PREDOMINATE AFTER 08Z WEDNESDAY MORNING.
IN ADDITION...A PERIOD OF IFR AND POSSIBLY LIFR VISIBILITIES AND
CEILINGS COULD DEVELOP AROUND 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING. AT KBTR AND
KGPT...THE INVERSION SHOULD BE WEAKER...BUT A PERIOD OF MVFR
CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES CANNOT BE RULED OUT AROUND 12Z. KMSY
SHOULD REMAIN SOMEWHAT MORE MIXED OUT AROUND 12Z WEDNESDAY
MORNING...KEEP FOG FROM FORMING. BY 14Z WEDNESDAY...ALL TERMINALS
SHOULD SEE VFR CONDITIONS RETURN AS THE INVERSION QUICKLY MIXES
OUT. 18
&&

.MARINE...
VERY LITTLE CHANGE IN THE FORECAST FOR TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED OVER THE AREA WILL KEEP LIGHT WINDS AND CALM SEAS IN
PLACE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. 18