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New Orleans Local Weather thread - dkmac - 05-24-2009 05:29 AM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
338 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2009


.SYNOPSIS...
BROAD VERTICALLY STACKED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE MISSISSIPPI DELTA
NEAR GREENVILLE MISSISSIPPI WITH SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AROUND
1004MB...MOVING NORTHWEST INTO ARKANSAS THIS MORNING. LARGE
SPIRAL CIRCULATION BANDING TAKING PLACE WITH ONE BAND ALONG THE
LOUSIANA COAST THEN BENDING INLAND INTO JACKSON COUNTY
MISSISSIPPI. SOME CONVERGENCE AND TRAINING OFF THE GULF INTO
JACKSON COUNTY WITH STRONGEST STORM EXHIBITING ROTATION NEAR
GAUTIER. DEEP LAYERED WESTERLY FLOW OVER INTERIOR PORTIONS OF
FORECAST AREA BRINGING SOMEWHAT LOWER DEWPOINTS INTO REGION THAT
MAY HAVE IMPACT ON RAINFALL COVERAGE TODAY.

.SHORT TERM...
MODELS APPEAR TO STRUGGLE WITH OVERDOING RAINFALL COVERAGE AS
DRIER WESTERLY FLOW IS SUPPRESSING COVERAGE AROUND THE OCCLUDING
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.
00Z SOUNDING AND MODEL SOUNDINGS SEEM MORE SUPPORTIVE OF SHORT
LIVED STORMS WITH A NEAR ZERO HODOGRAPH. WITH SLOW MOVING STORMS
THIS WOULD MEAN PULSE TYPE CONVECTION THAT BECOMES STARVED BY
GENERATED OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES AND DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT. HAVE OPTED
TO GO WITH OPTIMISTIC POPS FOR TODAY WITH THE HIGHEST OVER JACKSON
AND HARRISON COUNTIES...40 PERCENT ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST AND
LOWER PARISHES...30 PERCENT INLAND COUNTIES/PARISHES. WITH SEMI-
TROPICAL AIRMASS IN PLACE...TONIGHT SHOULD BE MOSTLY CLEAR WITH
ISOLATED CONVECTION. UNDERCUTTING POPS TO 40 PERCENT AREA-WIDE FOR
MEMORIAL DAY AS MOISTURE SHOULD BE A LITTLE RICHER COMPARED TO
TODAY BUT NOW AS HIGH AS MODELS INDICATE. 24/RR

.LONG TERM...
AS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PULLS AWAY FROM THE REGION THE MID-GULF
SHOULD REMAIN IN A WEAK ONSHORE FLOW REGIME FOR STEADY-STATE DAILY
GULF BREEZE AND LAKE BREEZE CONVECTION EACH AFTERNOON. A WEAK
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MAY SETTLE INTO THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY TO HELP PROVIDE ADDITIONAL FOCUS FOR DAYTIME STORMS.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE NEAR NORMAL FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK. 24/RR

&&

.AVIATION...
MCB AND GPT WILL FIND IT HARD TO GET OUT OF LOW END IFR CEILINGS
THIS MORNING. GPT SHOULD CLEAR FIRST AFTER SOME TS ACTIVITY WHILE
MCB CLEARS TOWARD 15Z. MSY WILL HAVE SOME TS ACTIVITY THIS MORNING
ASSOCIATED WITH A FEEDER BAND FROM THE LOW IN CENTRAL MISS. THINGS
SHOULD QUIET DOWN TONIGHT BUT SOME SCT TO BKN IFR CONDITIONS MAY
BE BACK IN AT MCB FOR A TIME. 17/TE

&&

.MARINE...
SURFACE LOW CONTINUES TO MOVE INLAND ACROSS WEST CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI
THIS MORNING WITH WINDS AND SEAS CONTINUING TO SETTLE DOWN ACROSS
THE COASTAL WATERS. NO HEADLINES ARE EXPECTED FOR AT LEAST 3 TO 4
DAYS. BUT TS ACTIVITY TODAY WILL BE ABLE TO CREATE HIGHER WIND GUSTS
AND HIGH SEAS. GENERALLY LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY. A FEW DISTURBANCES MAY MOVE OVER
THE COASTAL WATERS TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK. 17/TE


New Orleans Local Weather thread - dkmac - 05-24-2009 03:01 PM

Short term forecast:

Quote:SHORT TERM FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
257 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2009

GMZ530-LAZ034>040-046>050-056>065-MSZ068>071-077-080>082-242200-
LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN AND LAKE MAUREPAS-POINTE COUPEE-WEST FELICIANA-
EAST FELICIANA-ST. HELENA-TANGIPAHOA-WASHINGTON-ST. TAMMANY-
IBERVILLE-WEST BATON ROUGE-EAST BATON ROUGE-ASCENSION-LIVINGSTON-
ASSUMPTION-ST. JAMES-ST. JOHN THE BAPTIST-UPPER LAFOURCHE-
ST. CHARLES-UPPER JEFFERSON-ORLEANS-UPPER PLAQUEMINES-
UPPER ST. BERNARD-UPPER TERREBONNE-WILKINSON-AMITE-PIKE-WALTHALL-
PEARL RIVER-HAN****-HARRISON-JACKSON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...NEW ROADS...LIVONIA...
ST. FRANCISVILLE...JACKSON...CLINTON...GREENSBURG...MONTPELIER...
HAMMOND...PONCHATOULA...BOGALUSA...FRANKLINTON...SLIDELL...
MANDEVILLE...COVINGTON...LACOMBE...PLAQUEMINE...WHITE CASTLE...
PORT ALLEN...ADDIS...BRUSLY...BATON ROUGE...GONZALES...
DONALDSONVILLE...DENHAM SPRINGS...WALKER...PIERRE PART...
LABADIEVILLE...PAINCOURTVILLE...LUTCHER...GRAMERCY...LAPLACE...
RESERVE...THIBODAUX...RACELAND...LAROSE...DESTREHAN...NORCO...
METAIRIE...KENNER...NEW ORLEANS...BELLE CHASSE...CHALMETTE...
VIOLET...HOUMA...BAYOU CANE...CENTREVILLE...WOODVILLE...GLOSTER...
LIBERTY...CROSBY...MCCOMB...TYLERTOWN...PICAYUNE...
BAY ST. LOUIS...WAVELAND...DIAMONDHEAD...GULFPORT...BILOXI...
PASCAGOULA...OCEAN SPRINGS...MOSS POINT...GAUTIER...ST. MARTIN
257 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2009

.NOW...

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO
DEVELOP AND MOVE NORTHEAST AT 15 TO 20 MPH. EXPECT VERY HEAVY
RAINFALL...GUSTY WINDS...AND OCCASIONAL LIGHTNING. RAINFALL RATES
OF UP TO ONE QUARTER OF AN INCH PER HOUR CAN BE EXPECTED WITH
SHOWERS AND UP TO THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH WITH THUNDERSTORMS



New Orleans Local Weather thread - dkmac - 05-25-2009 04:58 AM

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF COASTAL WATERS
OF SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA AND SOUTH MISSISSIPPI...SOUTHEAST
LOUISIANA AND SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS...
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS TROPICAL AIRMASS THUNDERSTORMS OFTEN IN
BANDS TODAY WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING OCCASIONAL
LIGHTNING...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND WIND GUSTS 25 TO 35 MPH
THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON. SOME AREAS MAY EXPERIENCE SEVERAL
ROUNDS OF RAINFALL THROUGHOUT THE DAY. DEVELOPING SHOWERS IN THE
NEAR COASTAL WATERS THIS MORNING WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
WATERSPOUTS THAT MAY APPROACH SHORE BEFORE DISSIPATING. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED NON-SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
REDEVELOP OVERNIGHT.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
347 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
VERTICALLY STACKED WARM CORE LOW PRESSURE CIRCULATION OVER
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS DRIFTING SLOWLY WESTWARD TOWARDS OKLAHOMA.
LARGE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE EXTENDING FROM BERMUDA ACROSS OHIO
VALLEY INTO UPPER PLAINS STATES INHIBITING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO
ADVANCE NORTHWARD. CONVERGENT BANDING EXTENDING FROM THE
LOW...ACROSS CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI TO THE MISSISSIPPI COAST AND
EXTREME EASTERN LOWER LOUISIANA. LOW LEVEL JET WITH SPEED
CONVERGENCE FROM THE COASTAL WATERS IGNITING CONVECTION ALONG THE
BANDS WITH OMEGA PROVIDED FROM APPROACHING VORTICITY LOBE MOVING
EAST ALONG THE SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA COAST. AIRMASS REMAINS MOISTURE
RICH AND UNSTABLE WITH RATHER LOW TRIGGER TEMPERATURES AND
DIVERGENCE ALOFT TO SUSTAIN DEEP LAYERED CONVECTION TODAY.

.SHORT TERM...
LATEST RADAR AND SATELLITE TRENDS SHOW ALTERNATING CLEAR SKIES
WITH STREAKS OF TOWERING CUMULUS AND CUMULONIMBUS CLOUDS IN A
CYCLONIC CONVERGENT PATTERN FROM THE NEAR COASTAL WATERS WHERE
SPEED CONVERGENCE OF 15 KT OVER THE WATER IS ENCOUNTERING 5 KT OR
LESS WINDS OVER LAND. VAD WIND PROFILES SHOW 25KT AT AND JUST
ABOVE BOUNDARY LAYER. CURRENT COVERAGE IS ABOUT 30 PERCENT OF CWA
AND GROWING. WILL GO WITH GUIDANCE POPS OF 70 PERCENT OVER LAND
AREAS TODAY BUT ONLY 20 PERCENT OVER GULF WATERS. WILL MAINTAIN 40
PERCENT OVERNIGHT AS AIRMASS SHOULD REMAIN UNSTABLE AND INFLOW
INTO LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL LIKELY KEEP BANDING FEATURES IN
PLACE OVER THE REGION. DYNAMICS APPEAR TO WEAKEN SOMEWHAT TUESDAY
BUT WILL HOLD ON TO 50 PERCENT DAYTIME...30 PERCENT TUESDAY NIGHT.
24/RR

.LONG TERM...
WARM CORE LOW EVENTUALLY GETS ABSORBED BY WESTERLY FLOW IN THE
UPPER PLAINS AFTER NUDGING THE PERIPHERY OF RIDGE AXIS. UPPER
LEVEL HEIGHT FIELDS BECOME RATHER NONDESCRIPT WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR MORE TYPICAL GULF BREEZE/LAKE
BREEZE REGIME. A SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE AREA EARLY
FRIDAY TO FLUSH OUT TROPICAL MOISTURE FOR THE WEEKEND AND KEEP
RAIN CHANCES TO A MINIMUM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY.
COMPRESSIONAL HEATING IN ADVANCE OF TROUGH PASSAGE MAY PUSH
INLAND DAYTIME TEMPS NEAR 90 THURSDAY. 24/RR

&&

.AVIATION...
BIGGEST CONCERN FOR AVIATION TODAY WILL BE CONTINUED CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY. ONGOING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE
REST OF THE EARLY MORNING HOURS AND LIKELY EXPAND IN COVERAGE
THROUGHOUT THE DAY. STRONGER STORMS WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY BRIEF
HEAVY RAINFALL...GUSTY WINDS TO AROUND 20 KTS AND FREQUENT
LIGHTNING. VIS MAY DROP TO IFR WITH MVFR CIGS NEAR TSRMS. CONDITIONS
OUTSIDE OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE LOW END VFR TO NEAR MVFR CIGS.
SOUTH WINDS WILL PREVAIL NEAR 10 KTS. CIGS AND VIS WILL LIKELY
BECOME A NUISANCE AGAIN TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY AT SITES WHICH RECEIVE
APPRECIABLE RAINFALL. MEFFER

&&

.MARINE...
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WELL NORTH OF THE AREA WILL MOVE LITTLE TODAY
DUE TO RIDGE BLOCKING TO THE NORTH AND LITTLE PUSH FROM THE S OR SE.
SHORTWAVES MOVING AROUND THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THIS FEATURE
COUPLED WITH SATURATED COLUMN WILL RESULT IN NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE GULF COASTAL STATES. BLEED OVER INTO THE
NEAR SHORE COASTAL WATERS IS POSSIBLE WITH LOWER POPS FARTHER OUT.
10 TO 15 KT ONSHORE WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY. AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE IN EXTREME SE TX TRACKING EASTWARD COULD POSSIBLY RESULT IN
A CHANGE IN WINDS AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. EXPECT SIMILAR WIND
SPEEDS...JUST MORE WESTERLY IN NATURE BEHIND THE LOW AND NEAR CALM
WINDS CLOSE TO THE CENTER OF THE LOW. RELATIVELY LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK WITH SEAS MAINLY LESS
THAN 3 FEET. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA LATE THIS WEEK.
MEFFER


New Orleans Local Weather thread - dkmac - 05-26-2009 05:24 AM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
336 AM CDT TUE MAY 26 2009

.SHORT TERM...
WEAK WARM CORE VORTEX THAT HAS BEEN MULLING AROUND THE MIDDLE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY PAST FEW DAYS IS NOW LIFTING NORTH ACROSS
MISSOURI TOWARDS IOWA THIS MORNING. A MOISTURE AXIS EXTENDS TO THE
MID-GULF COAST ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER FROM THIS FEATURE BUT
WITH LITTLE OR NO OMEGA TO PROVIDE NOCTURNAL CONVECTION AS OF THIS
WRITING. MEANWHILE...A RATHER LARGE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
EVIDENT IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY MOVING ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS WITH MCS
PASSING BELOW SAN ANTONIO AREA TOWARDS THE MIDDLE TEXAS COAST. A
LINEAR MCS WAS ALSO MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA AND WILL
LIKELY STAY WELL NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. MODELS SHOW
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY MOISTURE AXIS ACTIVATING WITH DAYTIME HEATING
EARLY THIS MORNING AND WARRANTS MAINTAINING 50 PERCENT RAIN
CHANCES TODAY. THIS FEATURE SHOULD STAY PROGRESSIVE AND BE THE
MAIN FOCUS FOR RAINFALL TODAY. WEAK DISTURBANCES EMBEDDED IN THE
MEAN FLOW FROM TEXAS WILL MAKE IT DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT OPTIMAL
CONVECTION TIMES TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY BUT IF BULK OF MCS
CONVECTION MOVES ACROSS THE NORTH GULF...THIS MAY INHIBIT MOISTURE
FLOW INLAND TO LIMIT CONVECTIVE COVERAGE. WILL MAINTAIN 20 PERCENT
TONIGHT...40 PERCENT WEDNESDAY AND 30 PERCENT WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD REACH MID 80S MOST LOCATIONS DURING THE DAY
AND AROUND 70 FOR LOWS AT NIGHT. 24/RR

.LONG TERM...
SHORT-WAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE COOL FRONT MOVES THROUGH
SOME TIME THURSDAY WITH TIMING POSSIBLY AFFECTED BY EXTENT OF
CONVECTIVE COVERAGE THAT MAY ACCELERATE FRONTAL MOVEMENT GIVEN
FLOW PATTERN ALOFT. THIS SHOULD PRECLUDE COMPRESSIONAL HEATING
CONSIDERATIONS BUT MID-80S HIGHS FOR THURSDAY STILL SEEM
ATTAINABLE. IF FRONT BECOMES DELAYED INTO THE MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON HOURS...THEN A FEW LOCATIONS LIKE KBTR MAY BE ABLE TO
REACH 90 PRIOR TO BETTER COOL AIR ADVECTION. WEEKEND CONTINUES TO
LOOK DRY AND SEASONAL WITH CONTINENTAL NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN
ALOFT AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION. ONSHORE FLOW
RETURNS SUNDAY WITH GULF BREEZE CONSIDERATIONS FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK
AS MOISTURE RETURNS. 24/RR

&&

.AVIATION...
...12Z TAF ISSUANCE...

A FEW SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS BUT VERY
ISOLATED IN NATURE. THE PROBABILITY IS LOW THAT ANY TERMINAL WILL
SEE ANY OF THIS ACTIVITY BUT ITS NOT IMPOSSIBLE. EVEN IF SO...SHWRS
WILL BE BRIEF. CIGS WILL CONTINUE TO LOWER BEFORE SUNRISE WITH MCB
ALREADY AT LIFR. ALL SITES ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME VFR TODAY ALTHOUGH
CIGS WILL BE NEAR 3KFT. SHWR/TSRM COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO BE LESS
TODAY THAN YESTERDAY AT 50PCT. HAVE SIDED ON THE CONSERVATIVE SIDE
AND MAY NEED TO ADD TEMPO GROUPS IF DEVELOPMENT IS MORE THAN
EXPECTED. S TO SW WINDS WILL BE RELATIVELY LIGHT AT LESS THAN 10
KTS.

MEFFER

&&

.MARINE...
LITTLE TO TALK ABOUT IN THE COASTALS. SW FLOW WILL CONTINUE TODAY
AT AROUND 10 KTS WITH SEAS OF 1 TO 2 FEET. WINDS WILL ONLY WEAKEN
THROUGH MUCH OF THIS WEEK AS SFC PRESSURE PATTERN REMAINS WEAK. A
COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE GULF COAST THURSDAY NIGHT. OFFSHORE
WINDS FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE FRONT FINALLY PUSHES THROUGH. IT WILL
EVENTUALLY STALL ACROSS THE GULF AND DISSIPATE. THIS WEEKEND LOOKS
TO BE FAIRLY DRY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND THE FRONT.


New Orleans Local Weather thread - dkmac - 05-27-2009 04:09 AM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
340 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM 1004 MB SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CENTER
NEAR MOLINE ILLINOIS...ACROSS ARKLATEX...INTO CENTRAL TEXAS. UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH OVER WESTERN PLAINS STATES WITH CONVECTION OVER NORTH
TEXAS WEAKENING BEHIND FRONTAL ZONE BUT INTENSIFYING IN THE
ARKLATEX JUST AHEAD OF SURFACE FRONT. HIGH DEWPOINT AIR OVER THE
DEEP SOUTH AND SPREADING NORTHWARD WITH MID 60S OR HIGHER
DEWPOINTS INTO NORTHERN ILLINOIS. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT
MOVED THROUGH FORECAST AREA TUESDAY NOW MOVING ACROSS GEORGIA.
LATEST RADAR TRENDS SHOW VIRTUALLY CLEAR SCOPE BUT SHRINKING
GROUND CLUTTER PATTERN NEAR RADAR INDICATIVE OF DESTABILIZATION
AND SOME VERY WEAK RETURNS NOW NOTED SOUTH OF BATON ROUGE ALONG A
MOISTURE AXIS AND LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE OVER THE LOWER ATCHAFAYALA
BASIN. 24/RR

.SHORT TERM...
MODELS NOT HANDLING THE MCS OVER THE DFW METROPLEX PARTICULARLY
WELL. THE GFS GIVES NO CREEDENCE TO REALITY AND THE NAM IS OFF
SPATIALLY WITH ITS DEPICTION. THIS IS PROBABLY AN INDICATION THAT
THIS FRONTAL PROGRESSION WILL LIKELY BE DICTATED BY MESO-SCALE OR
SUB-SYNOPTIC PROCESSES TODAY AND MODEL RELIANCE NOT TOO GOOD IN
THE SHORT TERM. WITH PROGRESSION OF UPPER LEVEL SHORT-
WAVE...DIFLUENT FLOW PATTERN LIKELY TO DEVELOP DOWNSTREAM OF THIS
FEATURE OVER EAST TEXAS AND WESTERN LOUISIANA TO IMPART A BETTER
THAN INDICATED OMEGA OVER ADEQUATE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. BASED ON
THIS REASONING...WILL MAINTAIN 40 PERCENT POPS FOR TODAY WHICH IS
HIGHER THAN GFS MOS BUT LOWER THAN NAM MOS...MORE OF A COMPROMISE
AND CLOSER TO CONTINUITY FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST PACKAGES. IF TODAY
BECOMES THE MAIN CONVECTIVE DAY...THEN MUCH OF THE MOISTURE WILL
LIKELY BECOME FLUSHED FROM AREA TO REDUCE RAIN CHANCES FOR
THURSDAY WHEN DRIER AIR MOVES INTO THE REGION. TEMPERATURES MAY BE
AFFECTED BY COMPRESSIONAL HEATING IN ADVANCE OF APPROACHING TROUGH
IF CLOUD COVER DOES NOT OVERWHELM THE AREA. WILL BE INDICATING
UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90 FOR INTERIOR AREAS AWAY FROM MARINE
INFLUENCES. DRIER AIR ACROSS AREA THURSDAY WILL PROBABLY KEEP
TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 80S. SOME COOLING NOTED FOR THURSDAY
NIGHT MINS.

LOOKING AT CHAP OUTPUT FOR KBTR AS A SAMPLING USING BOTH NAM AND
GFS SURPRISINGLY SHOWS A LOW PERCENTAGE SEVERE THREAT THIS MORNING
WITH CONVECTIVE INITIATION DUE PRIMARILY TO A COOL POCKET ALOFT.
GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTIES IN THE MODELS TODAY...THIS IS LIKELY A
FALSE ALARM INDICATION...BUT WILL BE MINDFUL OF THE LIMITED THREAT
AS CONVECTION UNFOLDS ON THE SCOPE THIS MORNING. 24/RR

.LONG TERM...
ESSENTIALLY A DRY AND NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURE PERIOD FROM FRIDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA OVER THE
WEEKEND THEN MOVES EAST EARLY NEXT WEEK FOR INCREASING HUMIDITY
LEVELS TUESDAY AND PERHAPS SEA BREEZE STORMS TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
24/RR

&&
.AVIATION...
/12Z TAF ISSUANCE/
SHOWERS ALREADY BEGINNING TO DEVELOP SOUTH OF KBTR. COVERAGE IS
NOT EXPECTED TO BE HIGH ENOUGH TO WARRANT INCLUSION OF ANY TEMPOS
BUT THERE WILL BE THUNDERSTORMS AROUND THE AREA. NEAR CALM
CONDITIONS WILL BECOME SW BELOW 10 KTS. MVFR AT MCB MAY LAST FOR
ANOTHER HOUR BEFORE LIFR CIGS AND VIS COME IN. OTHERWISE...VFR
WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. NEARLY IDENTICAL
CONDITIONS TONIGHT UNTIL AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT SHIFTS WINDS TO
THE NW NEAR SUNRISE THURS. MEFFER

&&

.MARINE...
WEAK ONSHORE FLOW TO CONTINUE TODAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH
TEXAS AND INTO LA. THIS LATE SEASON FRONT WILL SHIFT WINDS TO MORE
WESTERLY ON THURSDAY AS A PREFRONTAL TROUGH MOVES THROUGH AND THEN
NORTH TO NORTHWEST ON FRIDAY AS THE ACTUAL BOUNDARY TRACKS ACROSS
THE GULF. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE TODAY AND THURSDAY AS
SHORTWAVES MOVE ACROSS THE AREA. OFF SHORE FLOW WILL PERSIST FOR A
FEW DAYS...WEAKENING SLIGHTLY EACH DAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES IN.
DRY FORECAST FOR THE WEEKEND. MEFFER

&&


New Orleans Local Weather thread - dkmac - 05-28-2009 04:30 AM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
456 AM CDT THU MAY 28 2009

.SHORT TERM...
A COLD FRONT BISECTS THE AREA WITH DRIER AIR OVER THE NORTHWEST
HALF OF THE AREA. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A POTENT SHORTWAVE
TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE MID/LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. IN THE
SOUTHERN STREAM...TWO STRONG DISTURBANCES ARE NOTED...ONE OVER THE
NORTHEAST MEXICO/RIO GRANDE VALLEY AREA...AND ANOTHER OVER THE
CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. IT APPEARS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL
SEE NEGATIVE VORTICITY ADVECTION FOR MUCH OF THE MORNING AND EARLY
AFTERNOON TODAY...THEN THE MODELS INDICATE A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE
EVENING. A MOISTURE GRADIENT AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL PERSIST
TODAY...AND THE ATMOSPHERE SHOULD REMAIN TOO DRY FOR ANY MENTION
OF RAIN OR THUNDERSTORMS BASICALLY FROM THE MCCOMB AND BATON ROUGE
AREAS WEST. TO THE EAST OF THESE AREAS...SLIGHTLY HIGHER SURFACE
DEWPOINTS AND PW/S SHOULD ALLOW ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TO DEVELOP WITH DAYTIME HEATING. SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING COULD BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE OVER
INLAND SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI...AND THIS AREA IS IN A SLIGHT RISK
OF SEVERE IN THE DAY ONE CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK. CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW
STORMS WITH STRONG GUSTY WINDS AS FAR SOUTHWEST AS AREAS NEAR LAKE
PONTCHARTRAIN LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING IF THERE IS
SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE TO INTERACT WITH THE WEAK
SHORTWAVE TROUGH.

LATER TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY...A MEAN MID/UPPER TROUGH WILL BE
SETTING UP OVER EASTERN CANADA/CONUS WITH NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE
CENTRAL GULF COAST. THIS WILL HELP PUSH THE WEAK COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. DRIER AIR WITH
FILTER IN WITH UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S DEWPOINTS ADVECTING INTO
MOST OF THE AREA. COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL BE NOTED AT NIGHT DUE
TO THIS DRY AIR...AND HIGHS ON FRIDAY WILL BE A COUPLE DEGREES
COOLER THAN TODAY.

.LONG TERM...
THE MID/UPPER TROUGH WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST AS A MID/UPPER
RIDGE SHIFTS EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND WESTERN GULF
COAST THROUGH THIS WEEKEND. A ZONAL FLOW PATTERN WILL BECOME
ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF STATES FOR MUCH OF NEXT
WEEKEND WITH A MID/UPPER LOW SLOWLY APPROACHING THE CALIFORNIA
COAST. FAIRLY DRY AIR WILL LINGER OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE
WEEKEND WITH MOSTLY BELOW NORMAL LOWS AND NEAR NORMAL HIGHS.

THE MAIN FORECAST PROBLEM ARE DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE GFS
AND ECMWF TUESDAY THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY. THE ECMWF DEVELOPS A CUT-
OFF LOW OVER THE SOUTHEAST TEXAS AREA WHILE THE GFS SHOWS A WEAKER
SYSTEM AT LEAST INITIALLY. THE ECMWF SHOWS MUCH MORE RAIN
SPREADING INTO THE CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION WHILE THE GFS REMAIN
MAINLY DRY FOR OUR AREA. HAVE GONE WITH A COMPROMISE SOLUTION FOR
NOW AND HAVE CONTINUED MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE TUESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY TIME FRAME.

22/TD
&&

.AVIATION...
VERY ISOLATED SHOWERS ONGOING ACROSS THE AREA. NOT EXPECTING ANY
IMPACTS FROM THIS ACTIVITY FOR THE REST OF THE OVERNIGHT HRS.
CURRENT NEAR CALM WINDS WILL BECOME WEST AND THEN WNW TO NW AS A
WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. MOISTURE LEVELS WILL
CONTINUE TO DROP WITH TIME. THEREFORE...ASIDE FROM COASTAL SHOWERS
IN THE MORNING...NO RAIN EXPECTED. TERMINALS WILL BECOME VFR LATER
THIS MORNING AS LOW CLOUDS DISSIPATE AND REMAIN IN VFR THROUGH THE
REST OF THE PERIOD. SKC TONIGHT.

MEFFER
&&

.MARINE...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE COASTAL WATERS TODAY. THIS
BOUNDARY IS RELATIVELY WEAK AND SHOULD ONLY PRODUCE WINDS IN THE 10
TO 15 KT RANGE. THEREFORE...NOT EXPECTING ANY SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS.
SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA THROUGH THIS WEEKEND. RAIN
POTENTIAL WILL REMAIN LOW AND WINDS WILL BE LIGHT.


New Orleans Local Weather thread - dkmac - 05-29-2009 05:05 AM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
436 AM CDT FRI MAY 29 2009

.SHORT TERM...
DRIER AND COOLER AIR HAS ARRIVED AS EXPECTED WITH 4 AM
TEMPERATURES DOWN IN THE 60S ACROSS MOST AREAS EXCEPT NEAR THE
SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA COAST AND SOUTH SHORE OF LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN
WHERE MARINE INFLUENCES ARE KEEPING TEMPERATURES UP IN THE LOW TO
MID 70S. DEWPOINTS TEMPERATURES ARE MOSTLY DOWN IN THE 60 TO 65
DEGREE RANGE WITH SOME 50S OBSERVED JUST NORTH AND NORTHWEST OF
THE FORECAST AREA. THE COLD FRONT IS MOVING THROUGH THE COASTAL
WATERS.

A MID/UPPER TROUGH AXIS WILL EXTEND FROM EASTERN CANADA DOWN
ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. TODAY WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH SWEEPING
THROUGH THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WHILE THE SURFACE COLD FRONT
MOVES SOUTH OF THE COASTAL WATERS. SHALLOW MOISTURE IN THE
850-800 MB LAYER WILL PRODUCE SOME CLOUDS MAINLY NORTH AS THIS
SHORTWAVE SWINGS THROUGH...BUT IT WILL BE WAY TOO DRY TO INCLUDE
ANY NON-ZERO POP OR MENTION OF RAIN. WITH THE LOW DEWPOINTS IN
PLACE...IT WILL BE A GREAT DAY WITH 850 MB TEMPERATURES AROUND
13C ONLY SUPPORTING HIGHS IN THE MID 80S.

ON SATURDAY...A FAIRLY DEEP MID/UPPER TROUGH WILL PERSIST OVER THE
NORTHEAST QUARTER OF THE U.S. WHILE A RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE WESTERN GULF COAST REGION. AFTER A
RELATIVELY COOL MORNING...TEMPERATURES WILL WARM TO NEAR NORMAL
VALUES BACK IN THE UPPER 80S AS THE AIRMASS MODIFIES...BUT
HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL REMAIN ON THE LOW SIDE FOR LATE MAY.

.LONG TERM...
A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH WITH A COLD CORE LOW WILL MOVE FROM THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES ACROSS NEW ENGLAND LATE SUNDAY AND SUNDAY
NIGHT WHICH WILL LEAVE A ZONAL FLOW PATTERN ACROSS THE NORTHERN
TIER OF STATES. THE SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL SLIDE EAST ACROSS THE
LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS A WEAK
SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES INTO TEXAS. THE MODELS HAVE
DECENT AGREEMENT SHOWING A WEAK 500 MB LOW/SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING
FROM SOUTHEAST TEXAS ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION DURING
THE TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY TIME FRAME. THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE
BEEN INCONSISTENT FROM MODEL RUN TO MODEL RUN...BUT IT THERE IS
GENERAL AGREEMENT THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN WILL RETURN TUESDAY WITH
A BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON WEDNESDAY.

THE UPPER FLOW PATTERN WILL AMPLIFY AGAIN GOING INTO THE LATTER
HALF OF NEXT WEEK WITH A MEAN TROUGH SETTING UP AGAIN NEAR THE
GREAT LAKES DOWN TO THE OHIO VALLEY WHILE A RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE
ROCKIES. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IN DEVELOPING NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE
GULF SOUTH WILL BRING ANOTHER WEAK COLD FRONT INTO THE FORECAST
AREA THURSDAY WHICH MAY BRING ANOTHER CHANCE OF CONVECTION
FOLLOWED BY A SHORTER PERIOD OF DRIER AND SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR LATE
THURSDAY INTO NEXT FRIDAY.

22/TD
&&

.AVIATION...
SKC ACROSS THE AREA WITH THE EXCEPTION OF ISOLATED LOW DECKS MOVING
ACROSS SOUTHERN MS. CIRRUS BLOW OFF FROM MCS OVER TEXAS WILL LIKELY
MOVE IN TODAY. COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED SOUTH INTO THE GULF. NORTHERLY
FLOW WILL PERSIST TODAY. EXPECT SPEEDS IN THE 5 TO 10 KT RANGE. VFR
WILL BE DOMINATE ACROSS THE AREA WITH ONLY A COUPLE HRS OF MVFR AT
MCB IN THE EARLY MORNING HRS.

MEFFER
&&

.MARINE...
COLD FRONT HAS PUSH OUT INTO THE GULF OF OF MEXICO. WINDS IN THE
INNER AND OUTER WATERS HAVE INCREASED IN RESPONSE. THE CURRENT 15 TO
20 KTS SHOULD SUBSIDE SOME AFTER NOON. IN THE MEAN TIME...DECIDED TO
GO WITH SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION FOR ALL COASTAL WATERS UNTIL
NOON. SFC RIDGE WILL CENTER OVER THE GULF SOUTH THIS WEEKEND. WINDS
WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY LIGHT AT 5 TO 10 KTS DURING THIS PERIOD. THIS
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT EAST EARLY NEXT WEEK AND ONSHORE FLOW WILL
RETURN ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS
BEGINNING TUESDAY.


New Orleans Local Weather thread - dkmac - 05-30-2009 04:13 AM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
440 AM CDT SAT MAY 30 2009

.SHORT TERM...
NORTH AMERICAN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY LOOP SHOWS A FAIRLY STABLE...
BLOCKY PATTERN WITH A DEEP EASTERN TROUGH DRIVING DRY AIR DOWN
ACROSS THE GULF SOUTH. SURFACE MAP SHOWS A LARGE RIDGE WITH DRY
CONTINENTAL AIR OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY/CENTRAL GULF
COAST REGION. THIS BASIC PATTERN WILL HOLD TODAY THEN MODIFY
SLIGHTLY ON SUNDAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH LIFTS OUT THROUGH THE
NORTHEAST STATES AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WEAKENS OVER OUR AREA.
TEMPERATURES WILL START OUT ON PLEASANTLY COOL SIDE EARLY THIS
MORNING...THEN PLENTIFUL SUNSHINE WILL BRING HIGHS UP INTO THE 85
TO 90 DEGREE RANGE TODAY AND AROUND 90 ON SUNDAY WITH RELATIVE
HUMIDITY ON THE LOW SIDE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. LOWS WILL BE
MOSTLY COOLER THAN NORMAL AGAIN TONIGHT...THEN A BIT WARMER ON
SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER WARMS AND SLOWLY MOISTENS.

.LONG TERM...
LOW TO MID LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES WILL TEND TO HOLD
BACK ANY SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN DEEP MOISTURE MONDAY...AND
PROBABLY INTO TUESDAY AS WELL. THE ECMWF MODEL APPEARS TO HANDLE
THE TRAJECTORY OF MOISTURE RETURN BETTER...STARTING ALONG THE
TEXAS COAST TUESDAY...THEN SPREADING EAST ALONG THE LOUISIANA
COAST WEDNESDAY AS WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCES/SHORTWAVES MOVE INTO
OUR AREA IN THE LARGE SCALE WESTERLIES. THIS KEEPS A WEDGE OF
DRIER AIR IN THE LOW TO MID LEVELS OVER OUR AREA LONGER THAN WHAT
THE 00Z GFS IS SHOWING. THESE SLIGHTLY DRIER MODEL SOLUTIONS AND
FORECAST POPS IN THE TUESDAY TO WEDNESDAY PERIOD WERE INDICATED
WITH YESTERDAYS 12Z MODEL RUNS AND THE AFTERNOON FORECAST...SO
HAVE NOT MADE MANY CHANGES TO THE LONGER TERM PERIODS.

ANOTHER LARGER SCALE MID/UPPER TROUGH WILL SET UP OVER EASTERN
CANADA/U.S. THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY WITH SHORTWAVE AND WEAK COLD
FRONT AFFECTING THE FORECAST AREA ON THURSDAY. THURSDAY SHOULD BE
OUR BEST CHANCE OF ANY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BEFORE SLIGHTLY
DRIER AIR MOVES IN BEHIND THE SHORT-LIVED WEAK FRONT ON FRIDAY.
DEEP LAYER RIDGE WILL LIKELY BUILD OVER OUR AREA AND KEEP THE
WEATHER ON THE WARM AND DRY SIDE NEXT WEEKEND.

22/TD
&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH 5/31 12Z.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE FIRST
PART OF THE WEEK. STRONGER WINDS WILL WEAKEN RAPIDLY TODAY OVER THE
BARRIER ISLANDS. A LOCALIZED COASTAL JET WILL SET UP TONIGHT OVER
THE MISSISSIPPI SOUND AREA AS WINDS BECOME WESTERLY THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING. THIS WILL CAUSE WINDS AND WAVE HEIGHTS IN THE SOUND AREAS
TO BE A LITTLE HIGHER THAN THE OPEN WATERS. NO HEADLINES EXPECTED
THROUGH THE FORECAST.


New Orleans Local Weather thread - dkmac - 05-31-2009 05:36 AM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
448 AM CDT SUN MAY 31 2009

.SHORT TERM...
TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...DEEP VORTEX OVER THE GREAT LAKES
REGION WILL MOVE EAST AND BRING A MORE ZONAL FLOW PATTERN ACROSS
THE NORTHERN TIER OF STATES. TO THE SOUTH...A SHORTWAVE RIDGE
WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THROUGH TONIGHT
WHILE A WEAK MID LEVEL TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER TEXAS. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE...CENTERED MOSTLY OVER LAND AREAS OF GULF COAST
EARLY TODAY WILL BECOME CENTERED MOSTLY OVER THE NORTH GULF WATERS
BY LATE TODAY THEN SHIFT EAST MONDAY AND ALLOW FOR A GRADUAL
INCREASE IN ONSHORE FLOW OVER THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS. ONLY A FEW
AFTERNOON CUMULUS CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TODAY. WARMER 850 MB
TEMPERATURES AND ONLY WEAK SEABREEZES WILL ALLOW MOST HIGHS TO
REACH AROUND 90 DEGREES TODAY EXCEPT FOR THE IMMEDIATE COASTAL
SECTIONS. HIGHS ON MONDAY MAY BE A DEGREE OR SO COOLER NEAR THE
COAST DUE TO SLIGHTLY HIGHER MOISTURE AND DEEPER ONSHORE FLOW.

.LONG TERM...
TUESDAY...THE SURFACE TO 700 MB RIDGE AXIS WILL BE SHIFTING EAST
ALLOWING FOR GULF MOISTURE TO RETURN NORTHWARD TOWARDS THE WESTERN
AND CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION DUE A COMBINATION OF ADVECTION AND
ISENTROPIC LIFT. WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST ALTHOUGH MOST OF THE RAIN WILL
LIKELY REMAIN SOUTH OF THE COAST AND HEADING TOWARDS THE MID LEVEL
TROUGH IN EAST TEXAS PER THE ECMWF SOLUTION. DAYTIME HEATING...SEA
AND LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARIES...INCREASED MOISTURE...AND LOWER
CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES WILL SUPPORT THE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS.

WEDNESDAY...THE WELL DEFINED UPPER LOW OVER ARIZONA TODAY WILL
HAVE MOVED NORTHEAST AND EAST THROUGH THE ROCKIES AND SOUTHERN HIGH
PLAINS...AND HEADING SOUTHEAST INTO A DEVELOPING NORTHWEST FLOW
PATTERN ACROSS THE PLAINS AND MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THE MODELS
CONTINUE TO SHOW A COMBINATION OF ENERGY FROM THE WEAK TEXAS
TROUGH AND ADDITIONAL DISTURBANCES IN NORTHWEST FLOW BRINGING
ADDED MOISTURE AND LIFT. HAVE GONE WITH A SLIGHTLY WETTER GFS
SOLUTION WHICH IS ONLY A LOW END CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.

THURSDAY...THE MAIN SHORTWAVE TROUGH IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALONG WITH
A WEAK SURFACE FRONT WILL PROVIDE A BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.

FRIDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND...A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN WILL LINGER
INTO FRIDAY MAINLY ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
AN UPPER RIDGE SHOULD BUILD EAST ALONG THE GULF COAST AND LIKELY
RESULT IN WARMER AND DRY WEATHER NEXT WEEKEND.

22/TD
&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
PRODUCING VERY LIGHT WINDS. THE HIGH MOVES EAST MONDAY NIGHT WHICH
WILL ALLOW A LIGHT SOUTHEAST FLOW TO DEVELOP AND PERSIST THROUGH THE
REST OF THE WEEK. A WEAK TROUGH MAY MOVE INTO THE COASTAL WATERS BY
WED AND A COLD FRONT SHOULD APPROACH FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.


New Orleans Local Weather thread - dkmac - 06-01-2009 04:56 AM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
411 AM CDT MON JUN 1 2009

.SHORT TERM...
MORE DRY WEATHER IS ON TAP AGAIN TODAY FOR THE FORECAST AREA
BEFORE RAIN CHANCES RETURN TO THE AREA THROUGH THE MID WEEK
PERIOD. HIGH PRESSURE IN THE LOWER AND MID LEVELS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE OVER THE GULF COAST REGION AND THE SOUTHEAST WILL
WEAKEN AND SHIFT EAST TODAY AND TONIGHT. AS A RESULT...MOISTURE
WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE AND DEEPEN ACROSS THE REGION AS FLOW
BECOMES INCREASINGLY SOUTHERLY. A SHORT WAVE OVER WESTERN TEXAS
IS FORECAST TO MOVE EAST TOWARD THE REGION TUESDAY...WEAKENING AS IT
DOES SO. THIS IMPULSE WILL ACT ON THE INCREASING MOISTURE TO RESULT
IN ISOLATED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...
WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR CONVECTION ACROSS COASTAL AREAS AND
ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS. A SHORT WAVE TROUGH IN A DEVELOPING
NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN ALOFT WILL APPROACH WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY
BRINGING A BETTER CHANCE FOR CONVECTION...ESPECIALLY THURSDAY.
THIS SYSTEM WILL PUSH A WEAK COLD FRONT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
LATE THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. A FEW STRONG STORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY AS PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES BULK UP TOWARD TWO INCHES ALONG WITH THE PRESENCE OF SIGNIFICANT
INSTABILITY AND PERHAPS SOME DRY AIR WORKING INTO THE MID LEVELS.
11

.LONG TERM...
DRY CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP AGAIN FOR THE END OF THE WEEK AND
THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH RIDGING ALOFT SHIFTING FROM TEXAS AND THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND CENTRAL
GULF COAST REGION. HIGH TEMPERATURES DURING THIS PERIOD ARE
EXPECTED TO BE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...PRIMARILY IN THE LOWER 90S.


&&

.AVIATION...
FR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. SOME LIGHT 3-5SM BR AT
GPT AND MSY WITH LITTLE REDUCTION AT MCB AND BTR THIS MORNING. 17

&&

.MARINE...
NO HEADLINES EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST. MOISTURE RETURN ALONG WITH
SH/TS WILL OCCUR TUE. SEVERAL DISTURBANCES MAY MOVE OVER THE
NORTHERN GULF WATERS THROUGH THU. A COLD FRONT IS THEN EXPECTED TO
MOVE THROUGH LATE THU AND FRI MORNING. 17