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New Orleans Local Weather thread - dkmac - 05-14-2009 05:09 AM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
425 AM CDT THU MAY 14 2009

.SHORT TERM...
SOME INTERESTING THINGS SHOWING UP IN ALL MODEL SUITES FROM THE
NORTH AMERICAN TO THE EUROPEAN. STARTING WITH THE SHORT TERM...A
WEAK TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING WEST THROUGH THE GULF THIS MORNING
LOCATED ALONG 90WEST. THIS SHOULD HELP BRING SOME NOCTURNALS
ONSHORE THIS MORNING. THE FEATURE HAS ALSO INCREASED THE DEPTH OF
MOISTURE IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER. THIS WILL ADD TO THE RAIN CHANCES
FOR TODAY. RAIN CHANCES WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE EACH DAY AS
AVAILABLE MOISTURE INCREASES IN THE VERTICAL UNTIL THE FRONT
PASSES SUN NIGHT.

SH/TS WILL DEVELOP TODAY BY WAY OF A WELL DEVELOPED C-BRZ. DUE TO
THE INCREASED MOISTURE DEPTH PROVIDED BY THE WAVE...THE C-BRZ
SHOULD DEVELOP RATHER QUICKLY LATE THIS MORNING BECOMING THE
DOMINANT FORCING FEATURE. MICRO-ENVIRONMENT SHOWS THAT WE SHOULD
GET SOME ACTIVITY ALONG COASTAL LOCATIONS THROUGH MID-MORNING
WHILE INLAND GETS NEAR ZERO. DURING THE AFTERNOON WE SHOULD SEE
MORE ACTIVITY INLAND AND CLOSE TO ZERO ALONG COASTAL LOCATIONS.

WILL SEE INCREASED MOISTURE DEPTH EACH DAY SO FRI WHOULD RECEIVE A
FEW MORE SH/TS THAN TODAY ETC... LOOKS LIKE THE C-BRZ SHOULD GET
ACTIVATED EACH DAY UNTIL SUNDAY WHEN SUPPRESSION AHEAD OF THE
FRONT MAY WEAKEN THE FEATURE A LITTLE.

.LONG TERM...
THE LONG WAVE TROUGH THAT WILL BE RESPONSIBLE FOR SUPPORTING THE
FRONTS MOVE THROUGH OUR AREA IS JUST NOW COMING INTO THE WEST
COAST AT VANCOUVER. AT THE SAME TIME...THE STRONG TROPICAL WAVE
MOVING THROUGH THE CARIBBEAN AT ABOUT 68.5W WILL GRADUALLY FIND
ITSELF IN THE EASTERN GULF AT THE SAME TIME THAT THE UPPER TROUGH
IS DIGGING OVER THE DEEP SOUTH. THE FLOW TO THE EAST OF THE UPPER
TROUGH WILL HELP EVACUATE THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE WAVES COLUMN
CAUSING IT TO DEEPEN A LITTLE. THIS OCCURS WHILE THE MID/UPPER
LEVEL CUT OFF LOW THAT IS FORMING TRIES TO DEVELOP A WEAK SFC
REFLECTION AND WRAPS UNLIMITED MOISTURE AROUND ITS CIRCULATION.
THE FRONT SHOULD STALL OFFSHORE WHILE THIS OCCURS PROVIDING
SEVERAL DAYS OF SH/TS FOR AT LEAST THE COASTAL WATERS AND MAYBE
EVEN SOME ONSHORE LOCATIONS THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 12Z ISSUANCE...MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES WILL IMPACT THE
TAF SITES EARLY THIS MORNING BEFORE IMPROVING TO VFR CONDITIONS FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY. ISOLATED TO POSSIBLY SCATTERED CONVECTION
WILL THREATENED EACH TAF SITE DURING THE THE AFTERNOON HOURS...WITH
THE BEST CHANCES AT KMCB AND KGPT. AGAIN LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES WILL BE
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY AT KMCB AND KBTR. 18

&&

.MARINE...
A SURFACE RIDGE WILL DOMINATE THE CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK WITH GENERALLY LIGHT TO OCCASIONALLY MODERATE
ONSHORE FLOW PREVAILING. A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO ENTER THE
COASTAL WATERS SUNDAY OR SUNDAY NIGHT. NORTH WINDS BEHIND THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE MAY PROMPT A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY ON MONDAY. 18


New Orleans Local Weather thread - dkmac - 05-15-2009 03:41 AM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
416 AM CDT FRI MAY 15 2009

.SHORT TERM...
A WEAKNESS AT 30H WILL HELP SUPPORT TS ONCE STARTED TODAY. SHOULD
SEE A STRONG C-BRZ ONCE AGAIN TODAY WITH ACTIVITY STARTING OUT
RATHER EARLY. OUTFLOWS WILL ALSO ADD TO THE GAME AS WELL. THE
PASSING OF A WEAK TROPICAL WAVE AS ALLOWED DEEP MOISTURE TO MOVE
INTO THE AREA. DEEPER MOISTURE MEANS LOWER CONVECTIVE TEMPS AND
MORE TS COVERAGE. THIS SCENARIO WILL PLAY OUT AGAIN SAT AND SUN.
SOME MID/UPPER DYNAMIC SUPPORT WILL HELP SAT AND SUN. SUNDAY WILL
BE THE DAY TO WATCH WITH REGARDS TO SEVERITY. A STRONG SHORT WAVE
WILL TRAVEL THE BASE OF THE LONG WAVE TROUGH AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES. THIS WILL CAUSE A VERY INTENSE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX TO
DEVELOP OVER EAST TX EARLY SUN MORNING. THIS FEATURE SHOULD
QUICKLY MOVE EAST REACHING OUR AREA JUST AFTER DAYLIGHT. WILL
MENTION ISOLATED SEVERE POSSIBLE TODAY AND SAT WITH STRONGER
WORDING FOR SUNDAY. BASICALLY...THROUGH SUNDAY WE SHOULD SEE
SUBSEQUENTLY STRONGER TS ACTIVITY.

ANOTHER PROBLEM SEEN IS HEAVY RAINFALL. AN AREA FROM NEW ORLEANS
TO BTR IS LOOKING TO BE A TROUBLE AREA OVER THE NEXT 3 DAYS. A
MAJOR FOCUS WILL BE ON THE NEW ORLEANS METRO AREA. STRONG C-BRZ
AND LAKE BRZ`S ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TODAY AND SAT. THESE
FEATURES WILL COLLIDE AROUND THE METRO AREA OF THE SOUTH SHORE
EACH DAY. HARD TO CHOOSE EXACTLY WHERE THIS WILL HAPPEN SO HAVE
GIVEN A GENEROUS AMOUNT OF QPF AND POP CHANCES TO ALL SOUTH SHORE
LOCATIONS WITHIN THE NEW ORLEANS METRO AREA THROUGH SUNDAY. TS
ACTIVITY SHOULD MOVE NW AT 10KT THIS MORNING BUT THIS MOTION
SLOWS THIS AFTERNOON AND COMES ALMOST TO A STAND STILL SAT WHICH
WILL BE ONE OF THE CAUSES OF THE HEAVY RAINFALL PROBLEM NOT JUST
FOR THE SOUTH SHORE BUT EVERYWHERE.

.LONG TERM...
COLD FRONT PASSES AND WE WILL SEE TEMPS FALL BACK A LITTLE WHICH
WILL BE NICE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. THIS OCCURS MONDAY THROUGH
WED. THURSDAY IS ANOTHER STORY. A VIGOROUS BAROCLINIC MID/UPPER
CUT OFF LOW FORMS FROM THE VERY TROUGH THAT ACCOMPANIES THE COLD
FRONT THROUGH THE AREA. A REFLECTIVE SFC LOW FORMS FROM THE
STACKED LOW AND BEGINS TO MOVE BACK TO THE NW. MODELS ARE
INDICATING THAT THE SFC LOW IS MOSTLY BAROCLINIC ATTM. ONE WAY OF
FINDING THIS OUT EASILY IS LOOKING AT THE WIND STRUCTURE AROUND
THE SYSTEM. WIND SPEEDS WEAKEN AS ONE MOVES TOWARD THE CENTER OF
THE CIRCULATION AND STRENGTHEN WELL AWAY FROM THE CENTER. NEEDLESS
TO SAY...WE SHOULD SEE WIND SPEEDS AND RAIN CHANCES INCREASE
TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK ONCE AGAIN.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR 00Z ISSUANCE...CONVECTION QUICKLY CAME TO AN END
THIS EVENING AND NOW JUST WAITING FOR THE VISBY RESTRICTIONS. MCB
HAS ALREADY COME DOWN INTO MVFR STATUS WITH 5SM AND SHOULD CONTINUE
TO GO DOWN THROUGH THE MORNING. THANKS TO ALMOST AN INCH OF
RAIN...CLEARING SKIES AND VERY LIGHT WINDS VISBIES WILL LIKELY FALL
INTO IFR BEFORE 9Z AND COULD EVEN DROP INTO LIFR AT TIMES THIS
MORNING. OTHER SITES WILL ALSO LIKELY SEE VISBIES FALL INTO AT LEAST
MVFR STATUS. CIGS MAY BECOME MORE OF AN ISSUE JUST BEFORE SUNRISE
BUT OVERALL THE BIGGEST CONCERN WILL BE VISBIES. AFTER SUNRISE
EVERYONE WILL IMPROVE GETTING BACK INTO MVFR STATUS BY 14/15Z. AFTER
THAT CONVECTION WILL LIKELY HAVE AN EARLY START ONCE AGAIN AS THE
SEABREEZE GETS GOING. /CAB/

&&

.MARINE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE ERN
GULF/SEABOARD THROUGH SAT. THIS WILL PROVIDE PERSISTENT LIGHT TO
OCCASIONALLY MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW. BY SUN A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
INTO THE AREA PUSHING THROUGH THE COASTAL WATERS MIDDAY SUN. ON THE
BACK SIDE OF THE FRONT STRONG NRLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP WITH THE TIDAL
LAKES AND COASTAL WATERS LIKELY MOVING INTO SMALL CRAFT ADV
CONDITIONS SUN AFTN THROUGH SUN NIGHT. BY MID WEEK NEXT WEEK
EVERYTHING WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDANT ON WHERE THIS POSSIBLE
GULF/ATLANTIC SYSTEM DEVELOPS. FOR THE MOST PART THOUGH IT LOOKS
LIKE OFFSHORE FLOW WILL LAST THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK IT IS JUST A
QUESTION OF HOW STRONG THE FLOW WILL BE. /CAB/


New Orleans Local Weather thread - dkmac - 05-16-2009 04:35 AM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
328 AM CDT SAT MAY 16 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
ONSHORE FLOW PRODUCING VERY ISOLATED SHOWERS...AND AN OCCASIONAL
RUMBLE OF THUNDER OVER COASTAL MISSISSIPPI AND NEAR LAKE
PONTCHARTRAIN AT PRESENT TIME. MAIN AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS RUNNING
FROM MICHIGAN THROUGH SOUTHERN ILLINOIS TO OKLAHOMA AHEAD OF A
COLD FRONT. DEW POINTS LOCALLY RUNNING GENERALLY IN THE UPPER
60S...WITH TEMPS UPPER 60S TO MIDDLE 70S.
&&

.SHORT TERM...
HOPEFULLY...THE ANTI-RAIN SHIELD HERE AT THE OFFICE HOLDS UP FOR
12 MORE HOURS SO THAT THE OPEN HOUSE GOES OFF WITHOUT A HITCH.

ONSHORE FLOW TO CONTINUE TODAY. NO LARGE SCALE FORCING...SO ANY
CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS TODAY WILL BE BASED ON MICRO TO MESOSCALE
FORCING...SUCH AS SEABREEZE AND OUTFLOW INTERACTIONS. THIS WILL
KEEP AREAL COVERAGE IN THE MID RANGE...50S AND 60S...FOR
TODAY...NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW GUIDANCE. FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL MOVE
INTO THE AREA TONIGHT AND MOVE OUT OF THE AREA ON SUNDAY. POPS
ARE A LITTLE CLOSER TO MET GUIDANCE THAN MAV. CANNOT RULE OUT A
PULSE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM...BUT RISK CERTAINLY NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO
MENTION IN THE FORECAST.

DRIER AIR TO MOVE INTO THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH
MONDAY. CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY CLOSE TO THE
COAST AS UPPER COLD POOL WILL STILL BE IN THE AREA.

TEMPERATURES TODAY AND SUNDAY WILL BE CONTROLLED BY TIMING OF
CONVECTION AT ANY ONE LOCATION. GENERALLY...HIGHS SHOULD BE IN THE
MIDDLE 80S...BUT UNTIMELY RAIN MAY HOLD A SITE OR TWO IN THE UPPER
70S AS HAPPENED AT KMCB ON THURSDAY. WITH HEAVIER CLOUD COVER ON
SUNDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY REMAIN IN THE 70S...BUT MAV
GUIDANCE APPEARS TO BE A LITTLE TOO COOL AT KMCB AND KBTR. SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MONDAY TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOUT 10 DEGREES COOLER THAN
WHAT WE HAVE SEEN OVER THE PAST WEEK OR SO...AND LIKELY WILL FEEL
RATHER REFRESHING COMPARED TO WHAT WE HAVE TO LOOK FORWARD TO FOR
THE NEXT 4 MONTHS. 35
&&

.LONG TERM...
PRETTY MUCH A REPEAT OF YESTERDAY`S DISCUSSION AS SCENARIO HAS NOT
CHANGED A GREAT DEAL. BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...THE MEDIUM
RANGE MODELS AGREE THAT A BROAD SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ORIENTED
SURFACE RIDGE WILL DOMINATE THE FORECAST AREA. IN THE UPPER
LEVELS...A EAST TO WEST ORIENTED UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SHOULD ALSO
BUILD IN. AS A RESULT...EXPECT LITTLE IN THE WAY OF CLOUD COVER
AND VIRTUALLY NO CHANCE OF PRECIP TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY WARM THROUGH THE WEEK...AS STRONG
SUBSIDENCE ALOFT DOMINATES THE REGION. HOWEVER...A LARGER THAN
USUAL DIURNAL RANGE WILL BE IN PLACE...WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS DIPPING
BELOW NORMAL DUE TO DRIER THAN NORMAL AIRMASS EXPECTED TO BE IN
PLACE.

WHILE THIS RIDGING DOMINATES THE IMMEDIATE GULF COAST...A CUT OFF
LOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP SOMEWHERE OVER THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN
GULF OF MEXICO. BOTH THE GFS AND ECWMF DEPICT THIS...BUT THERE ARE
LARGE DIFFERENCES ON THE EXACT PLACEMENT AND STRENGTH OF THIS
SYSTEM. IN ANY EVENT...THERE SHOULD BE SOME TYPE OF COLD CORE
UPPER LEVEL LOW STALLED OVER A PORTION OF THE GULF OF MEXICO NEXT
WEEK. IF THIS LOW REMAINS STATIONARY...A SURFACE REFLECTION MAY
DEVELOP WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY. AGAIN...THERE ARE GREAT DIFFERENCES
ON THE STRENGTH OF ANY SURFACE LOW FORMING DURING THIS TIME. THE
MODELS THEN DEPICT A NORTHWEST OR WESTWARD MOVEMENT OF THIS SYSTEM
LATE NEXT WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. GIVEN THE HIGH UNCERTAINTY AND
LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST FOR LATE NEXT WEEK...HAVE WENT WITH
ONLY LOW END CHANCE POPS FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THIS UNCERTAINTY
ALSO AFFECTS MARINE CONDITIONS OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO FOR THE
BACK HALF OF THE WEEK...AS ANY SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT OF LOW
PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WOULD HAVE AN EFFECT ON WIND AND WAVE
FORECASTS. 35
&&

.AVIATION...
...12Z TAF ISSUANCE...
VFR TO OCCASIONALLY MVFR CONDITIONS DUE TO CEILINGS AND/OR
VISIBILITIES WILL PREVAIL AT THE TAF SITES EARLY IN THE PERIOD.
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE TO VFR ALL LOCATIONS AFTER 14Z...
EXCEPT NEAR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. CONVECTION WILL BE ON THE
INCREASE LATE THIS MORNING AND ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE SATURDAY NIGHT AS A STRONG COLD
FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH AND LIKELY MOVES THROUGH KMCB AND
POSSIBLY EVEN KBTR BY 12Z. MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS MAY OCCUR BEHIND THE
FRONT TOWARD 12Z SUNDAY AT KMCB AND KBTR. 11
&&

.MARINE...
LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE TODAY IN ADVANCE OF A RATHER STRONG
COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE INTO THE COASTAL WATERS SUNDAY. IN THE
WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT...STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW WILL DEVELOP SUNDAY
NIGHT WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS THE GULF
COASTAL WATERS AS WELL AS LAKES PONTCHARTRAIN AND MAUREPAS. SMALL
CRAFT CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY PERSIST OVER THE GULF COASTAL WATERS
INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. 11


New Orleans Local Weather thread - dkmac - 05-17-2009 06:06 AM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
347 AM CDT SUN MAY 17 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
WIND FIELDS INDICATE THAT SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS EXITED THE
COAST. DRIER AIR...HOWEVER...STILL RESIDES NORTH OF INTERSTATE 20
OVER NORTHERN LOUISIANA AND CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI. A RELATIVE
MINIMUM OF PRECIPITATION CURRENTLY OVER THE FORECAST AREA...WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS...AND MORE EXTENSIVE
AREA OF PRECIPITATION NORTH OF A MERIDIAN TO NATCHEZ LINE.
TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S WITH DEW
POINTS BETWEEN 65 AND 70 UNDER LIGHT NORTH WINDS.
&&

.SHORT TERM...
BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT SOUTHWARD...GETTING A LITTLE
BETTER PUSH THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS NORTHERN STREAM IMPULSE
MOVES INTO THE EASTERN TROF. ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER WILL LIMIT
SURFACE HEATING TODAY...WITH THE RESULT BEING WEAKER CONVECTION.
WILL CONTINUE THE LIKELY POPS...BUT THUNDER MAY NOT BE AS COMMON
AS ORIGINALLY EXPECTED. PRECIPITATION WILL GRADUALLY DEPART THE
AREA TONIGHT AS DRIER AIR MOVES IN. UPSTREAM AIRMASS WILL BRING
DEW POINTS IN THE 40S AND 50S TO THE AREA FOR THE FIRST TIME IN A
WHILE. NO PRECIPITATION EXPECTED OVER LAND AREAS THROUGH TUESDAY.

MOST NOTABLE EFFECT OF THIS SYSTEM WILL BE THE COOLER AND DRIER
AIR MOVING IN. TODAY`S TEMPERATURE FORECAST HAS A RATHER HIGH BUST
POTENTIAL...AS GUIDANCE HIGH TEMPS ARE ABOUT 5 DEGREES WARMER THAN
CURRENT TEMPERATURES OVER NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA. A FEW HOURS
OF FILTERED SUNSHINE BEFORE THE DRIER AIR ARRIVES COULD ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO JUMP WELL ABOVE FORECAST HIGHS...BUT EARLY MORNING
PRECIPITATION COULD ALSO FLATTEN TEMPERATURES FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE DAY. WILL GO ABOVE GUIDANCE NORTH OF INTERSTATE 12...AND CLOSE
TO MAV GUIDANCE TO THE SOUTH TODAY. TEMPERATURES FOR TONIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY WILL GENERALLY BE 5-10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. WITH
NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS EXPECTED...IT IS ENTIRELY POSSIBLE THAT
THE GULFPORT AREA COULD ACTUALLY END UP WARMER THAN ONE MIGHT
EXPECT MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS THERE SHOULD BE NO MARINE
MODIFICATION THERE. 35
&&

.LONG TERM...
COULD BE AN INTERESTING END OF THE WEEK AND WEEKEND. GFS AND ECMWF
ARE COMING INTO AGREEMENT ON A SOLUTION WITH THE UPPER LOW
EXPECTED TO FORM OVER THE SOUTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO. GENERAL TRACK
WOULD BE FROM NEAR TAMPA AREA ON WEDNESDAY TO THE MOBILE-PENSACOLA
AREA FRIDAY...THEN OVER CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI AND ALABAMA FOR THE
WEEKEND. ECMWF IS SLIGHTLY SLOWER AND STRONGER...BUT SAME GENERAL
TRACK. THIS TRACK WOULD HAVE OUR AREA ON THE `DRIER` SIDE OF THE
LOW TRACK.

WE WILL BEGIN TO SEE CLOUDS INCREASE WEDNESDAY WITH CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION RETURNING THURSDAY. FOR NOW...WILL KEEP 12 HOUR POPS
IN THE CHANCE RANGE FOR THURSDAY AND BEYOND UNTIL TIMING AND STRENGTH
IS A LITTLE BETTER DEFINED. MAIN CONCERNS WILL BE POTENTIAL FOR
VERY HEAVY RAIN...ESPECIALLY AROUND FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

WILL GO GENERALLY CLOSE TO THE MEX GUIDANCE FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
GFS SOLUTION IS DRIVING THE FORECAST FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. 35
&&

.AVIATION...
...06Z TAF ISSUANCE...
A CHANCE OF SCATTERED SHRA/ISOLATED TSRA IS EXPECTED IN THE
MORNING. THE COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA THIS MORNING
WITH MVFR TO POSSIBLE IFR CIGS DEVELOPING THIS MORNING THEN
LIFTING SLOWLY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MODERATE NORTH WINDS
ARE EXPECTED AT ALL FOUR TAF SITES TONIGHT. AT MSY...SIGNIFICANT
COLD AIR ADVECTION ACROSS LAKE WATER TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE LOWER
80S WILL PRODUCE BRISK WINDS AT MSY LATER THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
12Z MONDAY. 18
&&

.MARINE...
LOWER PRESSURE AREA ACROSS THE SOUTH GULF AND HIGH OVER THE
MISSISSIPPI HAVE PRODUCED NORTHEAST WINDS ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS
AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY EARLY THIS MORNING. NORTHEAST WINDS
WILL INCREASE INTO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA FOR TIDAL LAKES AND
COASTAL WATERS TONIGHT AND POSSIBLY CONTINUING THROUGH TUESDAY. AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM STILL LOOKS TO MOVE INTO THE GULF
LATER IN THE WEEK AND MAY TRANSLATE DOWN TO THE SURFACE AS A LOW.
UNCERTAINTY STILL EXISTS WITH THIS SYSTEM BUT WILL PROBABLY BE THE
MAIN INFLUENCE ON THE MARINE FORECAST IN THE UPCOMING WEEK. 18


New Orleans Local Weather thread - dkmac - 05-18-2009 04:06 AM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
346 AM CDT MON MAY 18 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD FRONT WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA IN THE GULF OF MEXICO. NORTH EDGE
OF LOW CLOUD COVER ACROSS LOWER PORTIONS OF PLAQUEMINES...
TERREBONNE...JEFFERSON AND LAFOURCHE PARISHES. MUCH COOLER AND
DRIER AIR FILTERING INTO THE AREA WITH DEW POINTS NEAR 50 DEGREES
AROUND MCCOMB. TEMPERATURES GENERALLY AROUND 10 DEGREES COOLER
THAN IT WAS 24 HOURS AGO.
&&

.SHORT TERM...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE APPALACHIANS WILL CONTROL OUR
WEATHER TODAY AND TOMORROW. NORTHEAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO
FUNNEL DRIER AND COOLER AIR INTO THE AREA. SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY
SUNNY WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND UNSEASONABLY LOW
HUMIDITIES...RATHER ENJOYABLE FOR MID MAY. OVERNIGHT LOW
TEMPERATURES SHOULD STAY SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE RECORD LOWS.
RELATIVE HUMIDITY MAY BE DOWN AROUND 25 PERCENT ON TUESDAY
AFTERNOON WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS...SO FIRE WEATHER INTERESTS
SHOULD KEEP UPDATED ON THE LATEST INFORMATION.

UPPER LOW BEGINS TO CUT OFF OVER OR NEAR FLORIDA ON WEDNESDAY.
MODEL GUIDANCE IS ALL OVER THE PLACE ON SOLUTIONS...MORESO IN THE
EXTENDED PERIOD. IN THE SHORT TERM...A SLIGHTLY WEAKENED NAM
SOLUTION APPEARS TO BE THE BEST COMPROMISE SOLUTION. THIS WOULD
BEGIN TO SPREAD CLOUDS INTO THE AREA FROM THE EAST BY LATE
WEDNESDAY. EXPECT ANY PRECIPITATION TO HOLD OFF UNTIL AT LEAST
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL. 35
&&

.LONG TERM...
AS MENTIONED IN THE SHORT TERM PORTION...UPPER AND SURFACE LOWS
WILL AFFECT SOME PORTION OF THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO
DURING THE THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY PERIOD. MODELS CONTINUE TO
INDICATE THIS WILL BE A COLD CORE LOW...AND NOT TROPICAL.

THE 00Z GFS AND 12Z ECMWF BOTH HAD SYSTEM COMING ASHORE AROUND
THE KGPT-KMOB AREA AT THE END OF THE WEEK. IN A SIGNIFICANT
DEPARTURE...THE 00Z ECMWF NOW TAKES THE LOWS TO THE WEST OF OUR
AREA. THIS SOLUTION HAS NO RUN TO RUN CONTINUITY...AND FOR NOW
WILL NOT FOLLOW THIS SOLUTION. THE EVENTUAL TRACK OF THE LOW WILL
HAVE A MAJOR IMPACT ON THE WEATHER AROUND THE AREA. ANY HEAVY
PRECIPITATION WOULD GENERALLY FALL JUST TO THE RIGHT OF THE TRACK
OF THE LOW. THE GFS SOLUTION WOULD KEEP HEAVY RAINFALL TO THE EAST
OF THE AREA...WHILE THE NEW ECMWF SOLUTION WOULD PAINT HEAVY RAIN
OVER OUR AREA NEXT WEEKEND...WHICH JUST HAPPENS TO BE A HOLIDAY
WEEKEND. WILL GO WITH CHANCE POPS AND NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR
THE EXTENDED DAYS OF THE FORECAST...SIMILAR TO GFS/MEX GUIDANCE. LATER
FORECASTS WILL SURELY FOCUS THE BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION. 35
&&

.AVIATION...
NO AVIATIONS CONCERNS NOW. ALL MVFR CIGS HAVE CLEARED THE AREA
WITH ONLY SCT AROUND 3K FT AT MSY AT 0830Z. SKIES WILL REMAIN CLEAR
AND WITH STRONG NRLY WINDS EXPECTED VISBIES WILL NOT BE A PROBLEM
THIS MORNING. WINDS WILL BE PRETTY BREEZY AROUND 10-20 KTS WITH
HIGHER GUSTS BUT THERE SHOULD BE NO MAJOR CONCERNS WITH LLWS.
/CAB/
&&

.MARINE...
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE NORTH GULF BEHIND YESTERDAYS
COLD FRONT ALONG WITH GOOD CAA...STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW WILL
CONTINUE TO DEVELOP. BY MID WEEK AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE EASTERN GULF AND MOVE NORTHWESTWARD
THROUGH THE LATTER PORTIONS OF THE WEEK. THERE IS A GREAT DEAL OF
UNCERTAINTY WITH THE DEVELOPMENT AND TRACK OF ANY SUCH SYSTEM BUT
AT THIS MOMENT IT LOOKS LIKE STRONG NERLY FLOW WILL REMAIN OVER
THE REGION FOR THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE
ALREADY IN EFFECT THROUGH WEDNESDAY FOR THE COASTAL WATERS AND
WILL LIKELY NEED TO BE EXTENDED FURTHER INTO THE WEEK. /CAB/


New Orleans Local Weather thread - dkmac - 05-19-2009 04:33 AM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
327 AM CDT TUE MAY 19 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER PENNSYLVANIA RIDGING BACK TO THE
SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. LOW PRESSURE
CENTERED NEAR KEY WEST EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS PUTS THE AREA
UNDER DRY NORTHEASTERLY FLOW. A FEW CLOUDS OVER LOWER PLAQUEMINES
PARISH...BUT OTHERWISE A CLEAR AND UNSEASONABLY COOL MORNING.
TEMPS RANGE FROM MIDDLE 50S AT KMCB AND KPQL TO UPPER 60S AT BVE.
DEW POINTS GENERALLY UPPER 40S TO MID 50S.
&&

.SHORT TERM...
PEACEFUL WEATHER SHOULD CONTINUE TODAY AND MOST OF WEDNESDAY WITH
COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. DRY AIR
WILL CONTINUE WITH AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITIES AROUND 30 PERCENT
POSSIBLE TODAY. AS FLORIDA SYSTEM BEGINS TO MOVE WEST...CLOUDS AND
A SMALL CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION WILL APPROACH FROM THE EAST ON
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

SIGNIFICANT FORECAST PROBLEMS BEGIN FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND BEYOND.
SURFACE AND UPPER HIGHS ALONG THE EAST COAST WILL EVENTUALLY FORCE
THE FLORIDA LOW WESTWARD. UNFORTUNATELY...THERE ARE AS MANY
FORECAST SOLUTIONS AS THERE ARE MODELS. GFS SOLUTION DEVELOPS A
MAJOR SEPARATION BETWEEN THE SURFACE AND UPPER LOWS...AND ALONG
WITH THE CANADIAN SOLUTION...APPEAR TO BE FAST OUTLIERS.

WILL INCREASE POPS SLIGHTLY FOR THURSDAY...KEEPING THEM IN THE
CHANCE RANGE...HOWEVER.

BUMPED TEMPERATURES FOR WEDNESDAY UP A COUPLE OF DEGREES...OTHERWISE
NOT MANY TEMPERATURE CHANGES FOR THE FIRST COUPLE OF PERIODS.
NOTED THAT MET GUIDANCE FOR BTR AND GPT LOOKS SUSPICIOUSLY HIGH ON
TEMPS WEDNESDAY. 35
&&

.LONG TERM...
AS INDICATED IN THE SHORT TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST...THERE ARE
AS MANY SOLUTIONS FOR THE GULF LOW AS THERE ARE MODELS. FORECAST
PACKAGE DETAILS GENERALLY FOLLOW THE NAM EARLY. ONLY SMALL CHANGES
WERE MADE TO LATER PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST DUE TO THE LACK OF
CONSISTENCY...BOTH WITHIN...AND BETWEEN MODELS. FOR INSTANCE...00Z
GFS DOESN`T EVEN BRING A SURFACE LOW INLAND...A RADICAL CHANGE
FROM PREVIOUS RUNS. THE ECMWF HAS BEEN WAFFLING FROM COASTLINE
CROSSINGS TO OUR EAST...AND TO OUR WEST. OF COURSE...THIS WOULD
HAVE A LARGE EFFECT ON SENSIBLE WEATHER...AND EXACTLY WHERE...WHEN
AND IF HEAVY RAIN WILL OCCUR OVER PORTIONS OF OUR CWA.

FOR NOW...THE EXTENDED FORECAST WILL CONTINUE WITH CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION EACH DAY AND NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES. THE NEXT FEW
MODEL RUNS SHOULD ALLOW US TO REFINE DETAILS FOR THE BEST SOLUTION
WELL BEFORE THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND ARRIVES. 35
&&

.AVIATION...
NO AVIATIONS CONCERNS OVER ANY OF THE TAF LOCATIONS THIS MORNING
AND THROUGH TODAY. SKIES SHOULD REMAIN CLEAR/SUNNY WITH BREEZY
NORTHEAST WINDS THROUGH THE DAY. LLWS IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE A BIG
PROBLEM THIS MORNING. THERE WILL BE SOME DIRECTIONAL SHEAR FOR THE
FIRST 500-1K FT AROUND BTR/MCB BUT THIS WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS
WINDS BECOME MORE UNIDIRECTIONAL OUT OF THE NE/ENE BEFORE 15Z.
/CAB/
&&

.MARINE...
MODERATE TO STRONG NORTHEAST FLOW WILL CONTINUE TODAY AND LIKELY
THROUGH THE WEEK. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS ALREADY DEVELOPING IN
THE SERN GULF OFF THE FL COAST BUT THERE IS STILL A GREAT DEAL OF
UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS SYSTEM AS MDLS ARE ALL OVER THE PLACE WITH
THE TRACK AND STRENGTH. THE MAJORITY OF MDLS KEEP THIS AS A COLD
CORE SYSTEM OR POSSIBLY TRANSITIONING INTO SOME SORT OF HYBRID
SYSTEM PRIOR TO COMING ON SHORE LATE THIS WEEKEND. EITHER WAY IT
WILL HELP TO KEEP THINGS RATHER GUSTY TO OUTRIGHT WINDY ON THE
WATER. SMALL CRAFT ADVS ARE CURRENTLY OUT THROUGH WED FOR THE
COASTAL WATERS AND MAY NEED TO BE UPGRADED TO A GALE WARNING FOR
AT LEAST THE OUTER WATERS TONIGHT OR TOMORROW. /CAB/
&&


New Orleans Local Weather thread - dkmac - 05-20-2009 05:23 AM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
349 AM CDT WED MAY 20 2009

.UPDATE...
UPDATE/CORRECTION TO ADJUST TIME OF MARINE ISSUANCES FOR TODAY.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 339 AM CDT WED MAY 20 2009/

SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE CURRENTLY OFF THE SOUTHWEST FLORIDA COAST...WITH HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERED NEAR CHESAPEAKE BAY. THIS COMBINATION KEEPING
LIGHT NORTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE AREA...WITH TEMPERATURES RANGING
FROM UPPER 50S NORTH TO LOWER 70S AT BVE.

SHORT TERM...
FORECAST ISSUE REMAINS THE EVENTUAL EVOLUTION OF THE LOW OFF OF FLORIDA.
MODELS COMING INTO SOMEWHAT BETTER AGREEMENT THAN HAS BEEN THE CASE
OVER THE LAST FEW DAYS. LOW WILL DRIFT SLOWLY WESTWARD ACROSS THE
CENTRAL GULF FOR ABOUT THE NEXT 48 HOURS. MAIN EFFECTS TODAY WILL BE
TO BRING HIGH CLOUDINESS TO EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. THIS MAY
RETARD ANY MODIFICATION TO HIGH TEMPERATURES. CANNOT RULE OUT SOME
ISOLATED PRECIPITATION THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS SOUTHEAST HALF OF
AREA. WE REMAIN ON THE FRINGES OF THIS SYSTEM THROUGH FRIDAY...AT
LEAST WITH RESPECT TO PRECIPITATION. WILL CONTINUE POPS IN THE
SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE RANGE...SOMEWHAT CLOSER TO NAM SOLUTION.
TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL THROUGH FRIDAY.
EXPECT WINDS TO PICK UP...ESPECIALLY ON THURSDAY NEAR THE
COAST...BUT REMAIN BELOW WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA. 35

LONG TERM...
STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE DETAILS OF THE EVENTUAL TRACK OF THE
LOW. ECMWF BRINGS THE LOW INLAND NEAR THE ATCHAFALAYA RIVER ON
SUNDAY...WHILE THE GFS SAYS NEAR GULFPORT ON MONDAY. OF
COURSE...THE DIFFERENCES ARE BASED ON WHERE AND WHEN THE UPPER
RIDGE TO THE NORTH BREAKS DOWN...AND THAT DOESN`T APPEAR TO BE
HAPPENING YET. THESE SOLUTIONS WOULD HAVE RADICALLY DIFFERENT
EFFECTS ON OUR AREA. THE GFS SOLUTION WOULD PRODUCE MUCH LIGHTER
RAINFALL TOTALS OVER THE AREA. SHORT OF THE SYSTEM STAYING OUT
OVER THE CENTRAL GULF...WE WILL EVENTUALLY SEE RAIN PRETTY MUCH
ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA...JUST A QUESTION OF WHEN AND HOW MUCH.

PATH OF LEAST REGRET WILL BE TO KEEP CHANCE POPS IN FOR THE ENTIRE
WEEKEND...UNTIL SIGNS POINT TO WHICH PERIOD OR PERIODS WE WILL SEE
AN ENHANCEMENT OF PRECIPITATION. WILL CONTINUE THE MENTION OF
POSSIBLE HEAVY RAIN IN THE HWO. TEMPERATURES IN THE EXTENDED
PERIOD WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL...OUTSIDE OF RAIN
AREAS. 35

AVIATION...
NO AVIATIONS CONCERNS AS VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE
FCST. A MID DECK WILL LIKELY MOVE IN LATE THIS MORNING WITH SCT
LOW CLOUDS MOVING IN TONIGHT. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE BREEZY OUT
OF THE NE BUT LLWS STILL LOOKS LIKE IT WILL NOT BE AN ISSUE. /CAB/

MARINE...
MODERATE TO STRONG NORTHEAST FLOW WILL CONTINUE TODAY AND LIKELY
THROUGH THE WEEK. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO DEEPEN JUST
OFF THE FL COAST AND WITH A STRONG SFC HIGH IN PLACE OVER THE
PIEDMONT/DELMARVA REGION A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL SET UP
OVER THE REGION. GUSTS OF 35-40KTS ARE ALREADY OCCURRING TO OUR
EAST...SOUTH OF THE FL PANHANDLE. AS THE SFC LOW SLOWLY TRACKS TO
THE WEST ALONG WITH THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENING WE SHOULD SEE
THESE GUSTS BEGIN TO MOVE INTO SOME OF OUR COASTAL WATERS. WITH
THAT WE HAVE GONE AHEAD WITH A GALE WARNING FOR THE COASTAL WATERS
FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO THE SW PASS OF THE MS RIVER FROM 20 TO 60
NM. ELSEWHERE WE WILL LEAVE THE SMALL CRAFT ADV IN EFFECT BUT
THERE IS A GOOD POSSIBILITY THAT WE MAY NEED TO EXPAND THE GALE
WARNING TONIGHT FOR OTHER MARINE ZONES. NE WINDS WILL REMAIN
STRONG TOMORROW POSSIBILITY RELAXING SOME FRI BUT SMALL CRAFT ADVS
WILL STILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR SOME OF THE COASTAL WATERS HEADING
INTO THE WEEKEND. SEAS WILL ALSO BE ROUGH POSSIBLY APPROACHING
13FT IN THE OUTER WATERS LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT. ONE MORE CONCERN
COULD BE COASTAL FLOODING ISSUES EAST OF THE MS ALONG PLAQUEMINES
AND ST BERNARD PARISHES AND HAN**** COUNTY. WITH A PERSIST NE WIND
BECOMING MORE ERLY FRI AFTN WATER WILL BEGIN TO PILE UP IN THOSE
AREAS WITH TIDES POSSIBLY 2-2.5FT ABV NORMAL. A COASTAL FLOOD
WATCH MAY BE NEEDED FOR THESE AREAS. /CAB/


New Orleans Local Weather thread - ROLLTIDE - 05-21-2009 04:03 AM

SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OFF THE VIRGINIA COAST...WITH LOW PRESSURE
OVER THE CENTRAL GULF...SOUTH OF BUOY 42003. HIGH AND MID LEVEL
CLOUDINESS MOVING WESTWARD ALONG THE GULF COAST...WITH MOST OF THE
CLOUD COVER EAST OF INTERSTATE 55. DEW POINTS AND TEMPERATURES 10
TO 15 DEGREES WARMER THAN AT THE SAME TIME LAST NIGHT. STARTING TO
SEE SOME PRECIPITATION ECHOES OVER THE COASTAL PARISHES.
&&

.SHORT TERM...
FORECAST PROBLEMS MAINLY DEALING WITH PRECIPITATION. TIMING...AMOUNTS
AND LOCATIONS STILL IN QUESTION. MODELS ARE IN A LITTLE BETTER
AGREEMENT THIS MORNING. NAM AND GFS BOTH BRING LOW CENTER INLAND
AROUND TERREBONNE BAY SATURDAY EVENING. IN A SIGNIFICANT SHIFT
FROM 24 HOURS AGO...THE ECMWF HAS GONE FROM THE FARTHEST WESTWARD
TRACK...TO THE FARTHEST EAST WITH A BOOTHVILLE-GULFPORT TRACK.

CURRENT FORECAST PACKAGE WILL BE BASED ON A GFS-NAM BLEND. THIS
WOULD PUT HEAVIEST RAIN ALONG AND JUST EAST OF INTERSTATE 55.
AREAL AVERAGE OF 2 TO 4 INCHES CERTAINLY POSSIBLE...WITH ISOLATED
6 INCH AMOUNTS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. MOST OF THE RAIN WOULD
FALL FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. THIS WOULD BE JUST
OUTSIDE OF THE PREFERRED TIME FRAME FOR A FLOOD WATCH. WITH THIS
BEING A HOLIDAY WEEKEND AND SIGNIFICANT SOCIETAL IMPACT...WILL
ISSUE AN ESF THIS MORNING HIGHLIGHTING THE THREAT. IF THE ECMWF
VERIFIES...THE THREAT WOULD END UP MAINLY FOR THE COASTAL
MISSISSIPPI COUNTIES.

POPS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE LIKELY RANGE FOR FRIDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT. ESPECIALLY EARLY ON...THUNDER MAY BE SOMEWHAT
LIMITED WITH THIS SYSTEM...AS IT WILL BE A MARITIME AIRMASS. 35
&&

.LONG TERM...
UPPER SYSTEM NOW FORECAST TO BE PICKED UP BY THE WESTERLIES FOR
THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEK. WE NEVER REALLY GET RID OF THE
WEAKNESS IN THE UPPER PATTERN...AND WITH OCCASIONAL IMPULSES
MOVING THROUGH THAT AREA...WILL NEED TO CONTINUE CHANCE POPS
THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD. WE SHOULD STILL SEE A FAIR AMOUNT OF
SUNSHINE HOWEVER...SO TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL. 35
&&


New Orleans Local Weather thread - ROLLTIDE - 05-22-2009 03:35 AM

N.O NWS

Quote:AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
414 AM CDT FRI MAY 22 2009

.SHORT TERM...
MAIN SYSTEM CIRCULATION LOCATED ABOUT 25.15N 87.55W. DEFINITE COLD
CORE SYSTEM WITH A CONNECTION TO DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE FLOWING
INTO THE EAST SIDE OF THE SYSTEM FROM THE ATLANTIC AND CARIBBEAN.
COLD DRY AIR SUBSIDENCE COMING INTO THE SYSTEM INTERACTING WITH
THE WARM MOIST ATMOSPHERE IS CAUSING NUMEROUS SH/TS TO DEVELOP
FROM CUBA THROUGH THE EASTERN AND NORTHERN GULF. THIS INTERACTION
IS ALSO DEVELOPING SOME MODERATE BL TO MID LEVEL VORT CENTERS THAT
ARE ROTATION AROUND THE MID LEVEL LOW. THE CLOSEST CYCLICAL VORT
IS LOCATED AT 29.0N 87.5W. LOTS OF TS OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES COMING
FROM ALL CONVECTION WHICH ALSO PROVES THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOT OF
OVERTURNING DUE TO COOL DRY AIR BEING ADVECTED INTO THE INDIVIDUAL
TS CORES OWEING TO ITS BAROCLINICITY.

MOISTURE IS PLENTIFUL WITH THIS SYSTEM BUT NOT BEING USED
EFFICIENTLY. ONE OF THE BIGGER PROBLEMS IS THE FETCH LENGTH TO THE
EAST OF THE SYSTEM. STRONGER WINDS WELL AWAY FROM THE CENTER WILL
CONTINUE TO BRING GULF WATER TO THE EASTERN SHORELINES OF SE LA
AND COASTAL MISS.

SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO MAKE ITS WAY NW TODAY AND MOVE INTO THE AREA
SATURDAY.

.LONG TERM...
EVENTHOUGH THE SYSTEM MOVES NORTH OF THE AREA...WE CONTINUE TO BE
CAUGHT IN ITS WAKE TROUGH. THIS WILL HELP KEEP THINGS UNSETTLED
BUT POP NUMBERS SHOULD FALL BACK SOMEWHAT BY THE START OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...ALL SITES WILL LIKELY SEE MVFR CIGS MOST OF THE DAY.
CIGS MAY GET ABV 3K FOR A TIME THIS AFTN BUT LOW CIGS WILL DEVELOP
ONCE AGAIN TOMORROW EVN/NIGHT. SCT SHRA WILL BE POSSIBLE MOST OF THE
DAY FOR MSY/GPT BUT MCB/BTR WILL DEAL WITH SHRA AT SOME TIME TODAY
AS WELL. THE SHRA ACTIVITY WILL PICK UP AND BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD
THIS AFTN AND OVERNIGHT. TSRA ARE NOT EXPECTED UNTIL LATE THIS AFTN
OR OVERNIGHT. VISBIES WILL ONLY BE REDUCED DUE TO SHRA/TSRA. /CAB/

&&

.MARINE...SFC LOW IN THE GULF CONTINUES TO SLOWLY MOVE TO THE WNW
AND SHOULD BEGIN TO SLOWLY TRACK MORE TO THE NW NOW. MODERATE TO
STRONG ENE TO ERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE FOR ANOTHER 18-24HRS BEFORE
THE WINDS REALLY BEGIN TO WIND DOWN SATURDAY. DUE TO THE
BAROCLINICITY OF THE STORM THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE PROBABLY OVER
WITH AND WINDS OF 15-25KT WILL BE THE BEST WE WILL SEE. SEAS HAVE
ALSO BEGUN TO DECREASE SOME WITH BUOY 42040 ONLY SHOWING SEA HEIGHTS
OF 8-10FT NOW. EVEN THOUGH THE WINDS AND SEAS ARE BEGINNING TO SLACK
OFF THE COASTAL FLOOD ISSUES HAVE NOT CHANGED. ERLY WINDS WILL
CONTINUE TO PILE UP THE WATER ON EAST FACING SHORES AND ACROSS
HAN**** COUNTY WHERE THE WATER JUST HAS NOWHERE TO GO. TIDES ARE
RUNNING AROUND 1-1.5FT ABV NORMAL AND COULD RUN AS MUCH AS 2 FT ABV
NORMAL DURING HIGH TIDE. COASTAL FLOOD WARNINGS...ADV...AND
STATEMENTS WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT. /CAB/

&&



New Orleans Local Weather thread - dkmac - 05-23-2009 04:46 AM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
418 AM CDT SAT MAY 23 2009

.SHORT TERM...
WILL BE ISSUING FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR HARRISON AND JACKSON CO THIS
MORNING. WE WILL BE DROPPING THE COASTAL FLOOD WARNING AND WATCH
TO BE REPLACED BY A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY. FLOODING OF SECONDARY
AND BEACH ROUTES WILL BE POSSIBLE TODAY BUT RESIDENTIAL FLOODING
OF VEHICLES OR HOMES IS NOT EXPECTED.

BIG DIFFERENCE 24 HOURS CAN MAKE. TEMPS HAVE WARMED CONSIDERABLY
BETWEEN 700 AND 400MB OVER THE NORTHERN GULF DUE TO THE EMMENSE
AMOUNT OF LATENT HEAT RELEASE FROM THE CONVECTION THAT CONTINUES
IN THE GULF. THIS HAS CAUSED THE ATMOS TO BECOME MORE CONDUCIVE
FOR TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT IN A THERMAL SENSE. BUT 3 OTHER IMPORTANT
FACTORS WILL HAVE TO BE CONSIDERED IN FURTHER STRENGTHENING. ONE
IS SHEAR...THE SYSTEM IS GETTING BUFFETED BY SW WINDS ALOFT
CAUSING THE TOPS OF TS TO GET BLOWN TO THE NW KEEPING THE CENTER
OF THE MAIN LOW EXPOSED. SECOND IS WATER TEMPS...TEMPS IN THE
NORTHERN GULF ARE RUNNING IN THE MID 70S. BUT THE CONVERGENT
FEEDER BANDS ARE GATHERING THERMAL PROPERTIES FROM THE SE GULF
WHERE WATER TEMPS ARE IN THE LOW 80S. THIRD IS ITS PROXIMITY TO
LAND. EVENTHOUGH A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD POSSIBLY FORM FROM
THIS DISTURBANCE...ANY FURTHER DEVELOPMENT IS NOT EXPECTED.

THE CONVECTIVE BURST JUST OFFSHORE OF MOBILE SHOULD CONTINUE
INLAND WITH ITS CONVECTIVE INDUCED CIRCULATION IN TACT WHILE THE MAIN
SYNOPTIC SFC LOW IS STILL BACK NEAR THE MISS DELTA. TRIED TO FIND
A POINT TO CENTER THE SYNOPTIC LOW AND SINCE THE SHELL OIL
PLATFORM JUST SOUTH OF BUOY 42040 HAS A SOUTH WIND AND BOOTHVILLE
HAS A NORTHEAST WIND...WE HAVE COME UP WITH 29.0N 88.6W. LOWEST
PRESSURE FOUND IS 1004.9MB FROM BUOY 42040. THE WEAK SFC LOW HAS
BEEN DRIFTING NNW THIS MORNING AND SHOULD CONTINUE AT THIS PACE
AND DIRECTION TODAY.

THERE IS ALSO A POSSIBILITY THAT SOME TS OVER THE MISS GULF COAST
COULD BE STRONG OR EVEN SEVERE...MAINLY DUE TO STRONG WIND GUSTS
AND WATERSPOUTS THAT COULD COME ASHORE.

ONCE THIS SYSTEM HAS MOVED ASHORE LATER TODAY...A WAKE TROUGH WITH
DEEP MOISTURE SHOULD LINGER AS THE SFC LOW MEANDERS THROUGH THE
MISS RIVER VALLEY FOR A FEW DAYS. A DEEP MOIST ENVIRONMENT SHOULD
HELP THE PRODUCTION OF A C-BRZ BY SUN AND MON KEEPING TS IN THE
FCAST.

.LONG TERM...
SHOULD CONTINUE TO BE A DIURNAL FLUCTUATION IN POP NUMBERS THROUGH
MUCH OF THE WEEK. WE SHOULD SEE A MODERATE DISTURBANCE MOVE EAST
OUT OF TX BY WED AND THU. THIS FEATURE SHOULD REACH US BY FRI
THROUGH SAT AND MAY GIVE US SOME PROBLEMS WITH SEVERE WX AS WELL.

&&

.AVIATION...
...12Z TAF ISSUANCE...

PRETTY TOUGH FORECAST PERIOD TODAY WITH MUCH BASED ON FUTURE TRACK
OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO MOVING
NORTHWARD TOWARDS MOBILE BAY THIS MORNING. RAIN SHIELD SPREADING
INTO KPQL BUT UP UNTIL RECENTLY...HAS BEEN ERODING BEFORE REACHING
KGPT. MVFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED AS A PREVAILING CONDITION AT KGPT.
THE REMAINING TERMINAL SITES SHOULD BE VARIABLE SCT-BKN MVFR
CEILINGS GENERALLY BETWEEN 1500-2500 FEET MUCH OF THE DAY...LOWING
TO PREVAILING 1200-1500 FEET TONIGHT. VSBY SHOULD REMAIN VFR MUCH OF
THE DAY BUT AT TIMES UPPER END MVFR IN HEAVIER SHOWERS...
PARTICULARLY AT KGPT AND KPQL. 24/RR

&&

.MARINE...
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ESTIMATED 1007 MB SITUATED ABOUT 80
MILES SOUTH OF KMOB...MOVING NORTH 8 KT. THIS SYSTEM APPEARS TO BE
HEAVILY SHEARED BY WEST WINDS ALOFT ON THE SOUTHERN HALF OF SYSTEM
AND RAIN AREAS CONFINED BETWEEN CENTER AND WITHIN GRADIENT TO THE
NORTH OF CIRCULATION. WINDS HAVE BEEN JUST BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CRITERIA THIS MORNING AND WINDS SHOULD CONTINUE TO FALL OFF
THROUGHOUT THE DAY AS CONVECTION MOVES ASHORE AND GRADIENT RELAXES.
SEAS CONTINUE TO BE IN THE 7 TO 9 FOOT RANGE THIS MORNING BUT SHOULD
SUBSIDE LATER THIS MORNING. WILL MAINTAIN THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
UNTIL 1030 AM CDT AND LET DAY SHIFT RE-EVALUATE SITUATION. 24/RR