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New Orleans Local Weather thread - dkmac - 04-15-2009 05:09 AM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
455 AM CDT WED APR 15 2009

.SHORT TERM...
AT LEAST TODAY WILL BE NICE BEFORE WE FALL BACK INTO SEVERE
WEATHER MODE AGAIN. NE WINDS WILL BEGIN TO TURN MORE EASTERLY
THROUGH FRIDAY. THIS WILL HELP BRING SOME DEW PTS BACK BUT THE 70S
DP STAY LOCKED UP OVER THE CENTRAL GULF. FIRST EVIDENCE OF HOW
THINGS WILL DETERIORATE OVER THE COMING DAYS WILL BE A STRONG VORT
CENTER THAT WILL MOVE AWAY FROM THE COASTAL BEND OF TX AND INTO
OUR AREA THURSDAY EVENING. THIS FEATURE HAS SOME STRONG DYNAMICS
AND ACTUALLY STRENGTHENS AS IT MOVES OVER. PROBLEM WILL BE
MOISTURE. THE DISTURBANCE MOVES AWAY FROM WHERE MOISTURE RETURN
WILL BE OCCURRING OVER SE TX INTO AN AREA THAT IS LACKING ANY
SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE RETURN OVER THE NORTHERN GULF COAST.
REGARDLESS...THE FEATURE WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED AS IT TRAVERSES
THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT SINCE ONLY ONE POINT OF CONNECTIVITY WITH
ANY MOISTURE AND A TS WILL GET FIRED OFF WITH ALL THE INGREDIENTS
TO PROVIDE SEVERE WX. IF ANYTHING GETS STARTED...IT WOULD BE
ELEVATED AND MAY BE ABLE TO PRODUCE HAIL.

.LONG TERM...
WARM FRONTAL LIKE FEATURE MOVES THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY WITH
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND LOADING ALONG THE BOUNDARY. WE SHOULD SEE
SOME LIGHT SHOWERS BREAK OUT DURING THE DAY FRIDAY AS HEATING
PROVIDES THAT EXTRA LIFT. STRONGER DYNAMICALLY FORCED LIFT MOVES
IN FRIDAY NIGHT AT LEAST OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA AS A
PREFRONTAL TROUGH LAYS ORIENTED FROM SW TO NE FROM VICKSBURG TO
NEAR HOUSTON. THIS PREFRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL HELP SET UP THE REAL
WEATHER MAKER FOR SATURDAY. IT IS ALONG THIS PREFRONTAL INTERFACE
THAT A VERY STRONG DISTURBANCE IS EJECTED WITH PLENTY OF MOISTURE
AND ALL THE SUPPORT NEEDED UPSTAIRS. SHOULD SEE THIS FEATURE GET
GOING AROUND 10AM SATURDAY NEAR CORPUS CHRISTI. FROM THERE...IT
WILL EXPLODE AND SHOULD SLOWLY MOVE WITH THE MEAN FLOW UP TO
HOUSTON AND OVER TO LCH BY SAT EVENING WHERE IT WILL BEGIN TO GET
PICKED UP BY THE COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH. IT THEN BECOMES
PROGRESSIVE AND MOVES THROUGH OUR AREA LATE SAT NIGHT AND SUNDAY
MORNING. THE AREA SHOULD CONTINUE TO PRODUCE STRONG AND SEVERE TS
WITH SOME HEAVY RAINFALL. EVENTHOUGH THE DISTURBANCE SHOULD
WEAKEN A LITTLE AS IT MOVES THROUGH SE LA...SOME OF THE RAINFALL
TALLIES COULD BE QUITE IMPRESSIVE FROM THE HOUSTON AREA THROUGH
HERE. COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH AND FLUSHES EVERYTHING EAST BY
SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...
MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST AT THE TAF AIRPORTS THROUGH
THURSDAY. KMCB MAY TEMPORARILY DROP INTO MVFR VSBYS THIS MORNING BUT
AFTER SUNRISE IT WILL QUICKLY BE BACK IN VFR STATUS. WINDS WILL NOT
BE A FACTOR THROUGH THURSDAY...MOSTLY LESS THAN 10 KNOTS. 22

&&

.MARINE...
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER AREA TODAY WITH DIMINISHING
WIND SPEEDS AND LOWERING WAVE HEIGHTS. NORTHEAST WINDS NEAR 15 KNOTS
WITH SEAS UP AROUND 4 FEET 20 TO 60 NMI OFFSHORE EARLY THIS MORNING
WILL EASE TO 10 KNOTS WITH SEAS DOWN TO 2 TO 3 FEET THIS AFTERNOON.
AS HIGH MOVES EAST OF REGION ON THURSDAY AND LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS
IN PLAINS...SEVERAL DAYS OF MODERATE TO OCCASIONALLY STRONG ONSHORE
FLOW EXPECTED FROM LATE THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY OVER THE WATERS WITH THE STRONG UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM AND
COLD FRONT. 22


New Orleans Local Weather thread - dkmac - 04-16-2009 05:45 AM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
332 AM CDT THU APR 16 2009

.SHORT TERM...
SOME DIFFERENCES STARTING TO SHOW UP IN MODEL RUNS. OLDER RUNS
WERE HOLDING A SIMILAR PATTERN FOR THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS. THIS IS
THE FIRST TO DIVERGE FROM THAT OLDER SOLUTION. WOULD LIKE TO HOLD
ON TO THE ONGOING FCAST FOR NOW UNTIL WE SEE THIS NEWER SOLUTION
HOLD FOR A FEW MORE RUNS. A PREFRONTAL AXIS WILL ORIENT ITSELF
FROM SW TO NE FROM SOUTH TX THROUGH NORTHERN LA OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. THIS IS WHERE A FEW DISTURBANCES WILL BE EJECTED AND WILL
TAKE FULL ADVANTAGE OF THE DEEP MOISTURE AND DYNAMIC STRUCTURE
CONNECTING THE WEAKNESSES WITH THE BL. THE SET UP WILL BE A LOT OF
RAIN FOR AREAS ALONG THE PREFRONTAL BOUNDARY. THE COLD FRONT WILL
FINALLY MOVE IN AND PUSH THE MESS EASTWARD LATE SUNDAY.

.LONG TERM...
MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL BE A QUESTION MARK AS GLOBAL SUITES SLOWLY
MOVE THE UPPER TROUGH EAST. SEVERAL STRONG SHORT WAVES MOVE DOWN
THE NVA SIDE OF THE TROUGH CAUSING IT TO REPEATEDLY DIG. THIS WILL
CAUSE A FEW REINFORCING COLD FRONTAL SURGES TO MOVE THROUGH THE
AREA FOR A FEW DAYS AFTER THE FIRST MAIN FRONTAL PASSAGE. AFTER
THE ENTIRE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM FINALLY MOVES EAST...ZONAL FLOW WILL
SET UP WITH TRANQUIL WEATHER FOR WED. WED NIGHT AND THU WE SHOULD
SEE AN UPPER AND MID LEVEL HIGH BEGIN TO RIDGE FROM THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS INTO THE MIDWEST. THIS WILL BEGIN TO BRING ON THE WARMTH BY
THE END OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT EACH OF THE TAF SITES TODAY AND INTO
TONIGHT. IF WINDS DIE DOWN ENOUGH OVERNIGHT...THERE IS A POSSIBILITY
OF MVFR CONDITIONS DUE TO PATCHY FOG LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY
FRIDAY...MAINLY AFTER 08Z. 11

&&

.MARINE...
MODERATE EASTERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS TODAY
BEFORE BECOMING MORE SOUTHEASTERLY AND INCREASING ON FRIDAY. THIS
WILL RESULT FROM A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH
PRESSURE SITUATED OVER THE EASTERN U.S. AND LOWER PRESSURE OVER THE
SOUTHWEST GULF...AND THE EVENTUAL DEVELOPMENT OF LOW PRESSURE OVER
THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS. A HEADLINE INDICATING THAT SMALL CRAFT
SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION WILL BE POSTED FOR MOST OF THE GULF COASTAL
WATERS TODAY. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE EXPECTED TO BE NECESSARY
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. MODERATE TO STRONG ONSHORE FLOW IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND RESULTING IN SOMEWHAT ABOVE NORMAL TIDES
BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH SUNDAY JUST IN
ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS
SUNDAY NIGHT. 11


New Orleans Local Weather thread - dkmac - 04-17-2009 04:05 AM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
327 AM CDT FRI APR 17 2009

.SHORT TERM...
HIGH TO THE EAST CONTINUES TO STAY PUT WHILE A COLD FRONT MOVES
CLOSER FROM THE WEST. THIS WILL ENHANCE WIND SPEEDS TODAY OVER ALL
AREAS. DRY AIR IN THE MID LEVELS ALSO EXISTS FROM THE RIDGE AND
COVERS THE NORTHEAST HALF OF THE AREA. SOME ELEVATED SHOWERS
SHOULD BE ABLE TO FIND THEMSELVES MOVING INTO THIS AREA AND DECAY
THROUGH THE DAY. THE DEEPER MOISTURE IS FOUND FROM SW PASS TO
BATON ROUGE AND IS WHERE THE MODERATE TO HEAVY SH/TS SHOULD STOP.
SEVERAL DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE OVER THE PREFRONTAL TROUGH OUT WEST
THROUGH SATURDAY. TWO DISTURBANCES WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED HERE.
THE FIRST MAY BE JUST NORTH OF THE AREA BUT WILL CLOSE ENOUGH TO
GIVE A CHANCE OF A STRONG TS MOVING OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE
AREA SATURDAY. THE SECOND ONE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE CWA WITH THE
COLD FRONT TAGGING ALONG SUNDAY MORNING. THIS IS THE STRONGER OF
THE TWO BUT NUMBERS ARE NOT VERY HIGH FROM LOCAL
GUIDANCE...INSTEAD ONLY MODERATE NUMBERS ARE SHOWING UP LENDING TO
SOME STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WITH 2 OR 3 BECOMING SEVERE. THE HIGHEST
NUMBERS ARE SHOWING UP FOR LATE SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.

WILL CONTINUE THE COASTAL FLOOD STATEMENT AS WE MOVE DOWNWARD ON A
HIGHER THAN NORMAL LUNAR CYCLE AND SOUTHERLY WINDS BEGIN LATER
TODAY AND TONIGHT.

.LONG TERM...
AFTER THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH...IT WILL BE HARD TO GET RID OF THE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AS STRONG SHORT WAVES MOVE INTO THE BASE
HELPING TO DIG THE TROUGH AND KEEP IT ANCHORED OVER THE EAST. SOME
LOW CLOUDS FROM TIME TO TIME MONDAY AND TUESDAY BUT SHOULD NOT
SEE ANY RAINFALL. A STACKED RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD NORTHWARD BY THE
END OF THE WEEK AND PROMISES TO BRING THE WARMTH WITH IT INTO NEXT
WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...
IN GENERAL...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR THE BALANCE OF TODAY
AND TONIGHT AT EACH OF THE TAF SITES ALTHOUGH MVFR CONDITIONS DUE TO
CEILINGS MAY OCCUR FROM TIME TO TIME...PRIMARILY LATER THIS AFTERNOON
AND OVERNIGHT. THERE IS A RISK OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING
THE PERIOD WITH THE BETTER CHANCE LATER TODAY. WINDS WILL BECOME
RATHER GUSTY TODAY...ESPECIALLY AT KMSY AND KGPT. 11

&&

.MARINE...
A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA WINDS TODAY THAT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
TONIGHT AND INTO SATURDAY. HIGHER THAN NORMAL TIDES...PERHAPS 1 TO 2
FEET ABOVE NORMAL...WILL DEVELOP LATER TODAY AND THIS EVENING AS
EASTERLY WINDS BECOME MORE SOUTHEASTERLY AND INCREASE IN SPEED.
WINDS WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH SOMEWHAT BY SUNDAY. THE NEXT COLD
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MAKE ITS WAY ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MODERATE OFFSHORE FLOW WILL PREVAIL IN THE
WAKE OF THE FRONT THROUGH THE EARLY PORTION OF THE UPCOMING WORK
WEEK. 11


New Orleans Local Weather thread - dkmac - 04-18-2009 04:48 AM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
343 AM CDT SAT APR 18 2009

.SHORT TERM...

THE MCV THAT PUSHED INTO THE CWA EARLIER TONIGHT HAS WEAKENED
CONSIDERABLY...AS IT ENCOUNTERED A SOMEWHAT MORE STABLE AIRMASS AS
INDICATED BY THE 00Z KLIX SOUNDING. THIS HAS ALLOWED THE
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO DECREASE SUBSTANTIALLY OVER THE LAST FEW
HOURS...WITH ONLY A BAND OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN PASSING THROUGH
EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS BAND OF RAIN SHOULD CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE
TOWARD DAYBREAK.

GOING INTO THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY...IT APPEARS THAT A SECOND
ROUND OF CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL REDEVELOP OVER THE CWA LATE THIS
MORNING AND PERSIST INTO THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. THIS
ROUND OF CONVECTION WILL BE DRIVEN BY A FAST MOVING VORT MAX
EJECTING OUT OF TEXAS AND PASSING THROUGH THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY. THIS VORT MAX WILL ENHANCE THE BROAD AREA OF UPPER LEVEL
LIFT ALREADY IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION. IN ADDITION...MODEL
SOUNDINGS INDICATE SOME GREATER INSTABILITY ACROSS THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON. THESE CONDITIONS HAVE LED TO THE BUMPING UP OF POPS FOR
TODAY FROM CHANCE TO LIKELY...WITH THE HIGHEST POPS OVER NORTHERN
AND WESTERN ZONES...CLOSER TO THE VORT MAX MENTIONED EARLIER. IN
ADDITION TO THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY...STRONG SOUTHEAST FLOW OFF
THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP TIDE LEVELS ELEVATED.
WITH THIS IN MIND...HAVE EXTENDED THE COASTAL FLOOD WARNING FROM
HAN**** COUNTY.

ANOTHER ROUND OF CONVECTION SHOULD THEN IMPACT THE REGION TONIGHT
INTO EARLY TOMORROW. THIS ROUND OF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL
ASSOCIATED THE ACTUAL PARENT VORT MAX AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
BEGINNING TO PULL THROUGH THE REGION. ALOFT...A FAIRLY STRONG JET
STREAK WILL ROUND THE BASE OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND POSITION
ITSELF OVER THE GULF SOUTH. WITH THE JET STREAK ROUNDING THE
TROUGH...EXPECT THE SYSTEM TO TAKE ON A MORE NEGATIVE TILT TONIGHT
INTO TOMORROW MORNING. MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE THERE WILL BE
PLENTY OF HELICITY AND INCREASING INSTABILITY AS THE COLD CORE OF
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW NEARS TO SUPPORT STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT. IN ADDITION...DEEP MOISTURE WILL ALSO SUPPORT THE
THREAT OF HEAVY RAINFALL TONIGHT. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE EXPECTED
SPEED OF THE SYSTEM...DO NOT EXPECT MORE THAN 2 TO 3 INCHES OF
RAIN IN MOST LOCATIONS. A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE MAIN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WILL SLIDE INTO THE COASTAL WATERS BY
SUNDAY AFTERNOON...ALLOWING FOR CLEARING SKIES AND DRIER
CONDITIONS INLAND. THE COASTAL WATERS SHOULD CLEAR SUNDAY
NIGHT...AS STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND NEGATIVE VORTICITY ADVECTION IN
THE WAKE OF THE TROUGH BUILDS IN. DEEP NORTHWEST FLOW WILL USHER
IN A MUCH COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS FOR MONDAY.

.LONG TERM...

STRONG AND DEEP NORTHWEST FLOW WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SLIDE INTO THE REGION
ON TUESDAY. THIS CLIPPER LIKE SYSTEM SHOULD BRING A FEW CLOUDS TO
THE AREA...BUT THE EXTREMELY DRY AIRMASS AND SUBSIDENCE IN PLACE
WILL LIMIT ANY POTENTIAL FOR PRECIP TO DEVELOP. THIS SYSTEM WILL
PULL BY TUESDAY NIGHT...ALLOWING FOR CONTINUED CLEAR AND COOL
CONDITIONS INTO WEDNESDAY. GOING INTO THE LATTER HALF OF THE
WEEK...STRONG MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL TAKE HOLD OF THE
REGION. IN THE LOW LEVELS...THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL SLIDE TO THE
EAST...ALLOWING SOUTHERLY FLOW OFF THE GULF TO DEVELOP. WITH
SINKING AIR ALOFT IN PLACE...EXPECT CLEAR SKIES AND AMPLE SOLAR
INSOLATION TO TAKE HOLD. THE COLD POOL ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH
WILL SLIDE TO THE EAST...ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB BACK TO
NEAR NORMAL THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. CONDITIONS WILL ALSO BEGIN
TO BECOME A BIT MORE HUMID FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS THE RETURN FLOW
OFF THE GULF INCREASES. HOWEVER...POPS WILL REMAIN LOW DUE TO THE
STRONG RIDGING ALOFT.

&&

.AVIATION...
IN GENERAL...MVFR TO OCCASIONAL VFR CONDITIONS DUE TO CEILINGS WILL
PREVAIL AT EACH OF THE TAF SITES TODAY WITH MVFR TO OCCASIONAL IFR
CEILINGS EXPECTED TONIGHT. A CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF CONVECTION IS
EXPECTED ACROSS SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA AND SOUTH MISSISSIPPI DURING THE
FORECAST PERIOD WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS BEING FROM
LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT. GUSTY SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL
PLAGUE THE TERMINAL LOCATIONS THROUGHOUT THE DAY SATURDAY. 11

&&

.MARINE...
A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN IN PLACE TODAY AND TONIGHT
ACROSS THE GULF COAST REGION RESULTING IN THE CONTINUATION OF SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA WINDS DURING THE PERIOD. SEAS WILL ALSO BE
IN THE 7 TO 8 FEET RANGE IN THE OUTER GULF COASTAL WATERS THROUGH
TONIGHT. HIGHER THAN NORMAL TIDES...ON THE ORDER OF 1 TO 2 FEET
ABOVE NORMAL...HAVE DEVELOPED AND THE THREAT OF COASTAL FLOODING
WILL EXIST FOR HAN**** COUNTY MISSISSIPPI THROUGH THE DAY TODAY.
THEREFORE...THE COASTAL FLOODING WARNING FOR HAN**** COUNTY WILL BE
EXTENDED UNTIL THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH SOMEWHAT
ON SUNDAY. THE NEXT COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MAKE ITS WAY ACROSS
THE COASTAL WATERS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MODERATE OFFSHORE
FLOW WILL PREVAIL IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT THROUGH THE EARLY PORTION
OF THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK. 11


New Orleans Local Weather thread - dkmac - 04-19-2009 04:51 AM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
351 AM CDT SUN APR 19 2009

.SHORT TERM...

IN THE IMMEDIATE TERM...A VERY INTERESTING SCENARIO PLAYED OUT
TONIGHT...WITH A STRONG WAKE LOW IMPACTING PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST
LOUISIANA. RECORDED WIND GUSTS OF 45 TO 55 MPH WERE REPORTED IN
THE BATON ROUGE AREA...AS WELL AS SOUTHWARD TOWARD MORGAN CITY.
FORTUNATELY...THIS FEATURE APPEARS TO HAVE WEAKENED IN THE LAST
HOUR AS IT MOVED EAST TOWARD THE NEW ORLEANS REGION. GOING INTO
THE REMAINDER OF THE MORNING HOURS...A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH WILL
CONTINUE TO DRIVE A BAND OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN...WITH EMBEDDED
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA AND
COASTAL MISSISSIPPI. THE CURRENT VAD WIND PROFILE FROM THE SLIDELL
RADAR SHOWS ENOUGH DIRECTIONAL AND SPEED SHEAR IN PLACE TO SUPPORT
ROTATION IN ANY DEEP THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP. THE PROBLEM THIS
MORNING HAS BEEN THE LACK OF DEEP CONVECTION...WITH A WARM RAIN
PROCESS DOMINATING THE SCENE. THIS IS MAINLY DUE TO A LACK OF
INSTABILITY ALOFT...WITH NEARLY MOIST ADIABATIC...AND THUS MORE
STABLE LAPSE RATES NOTED FROM THE 00Z SOUNDINGS AT KLCH AND KLIX.
IT APPEARS THIS LACK OF STRONG INSTABILITY WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE MORNING HOURS IN ADVANCE OF THE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH AXIS. WITH
THESE FACTORS IN MIND...KEEP THUNDER IN THE FORECAST...BUT MAINLY
EXPECT HEAVY RAIN AND POSSIBLY AN ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND EVENT TO
BE THE MAIN IMPACTS ASSOCIATED WITH ANY THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
THROUGH MIDDAY.

BY THIS AFTERNOON...THE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH WILL PULL INTO THE
COASTAL WATERS...ALLOWING FOR CLEARING SKIES TO TAKE HOLD OF LAND
BASED ZONES. ALOFT...THE UPPER LEVEL VORTEX OVER THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS WILL QUICKLY SHIFT TOWARD THE OHIO VALLEY. WITH DRIER AIR
MOVING IN...AND CLEARING SKIES IN PLACE...EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO
WARM TO NEAR NORMAL FOR THIS AFTERNOON. AS THE UPPER VORTEX PULLS
TO THE NORTHEAST...THE ACTUAL COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE
SYSTEM WILL PULL TOWARD THE REGION. THIS FRONT SHOULD SWEEP
THROUGH TONIGHT...USHERING IN A MUCH COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS FOR
TOMORROW. LARGE DIURNAL RANGES OF AROUND 25 TO 30 DEGREES CAN BE
EXPECTED MONDAY AND TUESDAY DUE TO THE DRY AIRMASS EXPECTED TO BE
IN PLACE AND CLEAR SKIES. A SECONDARY VORT LOBE MAY WORK DOWN
THROUGH THE DEEP NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ON TUESDAY AS
WELL...ALLOWING FOR SOME AFTERNOON CLOUDS...ESPECIALLY OVER
NORTHERN AND EASTERN ZONES. THIS WEAK VORT MAX WILL SLIP TO THE
EAST BY TUESDAY NIGHT...ALLOWING FOR CLEAR SKIES ONCE AGAIN.
HOWEVER...IT APPEARS THAT WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY TUESDAY
NIGHT AS THE SURFACE RIDGE SLIDES EAST...ALLOWING FOR SOME MODEST LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN...AND SLIGHTLY WARMER OVERNIGHT LOWS.

.LONG TERM...

GOING INTO THE EXTENDED...ALL OF THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS AGREE
THAT A STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE GULF SOUTH
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN
SEABOARD LIFTS TO THE NORTHEAST. HOWEVER...THE MODELS BECOME
DIVERGENT OVER THE WEEKEND. THE GFS DEPICTS A VERY DEEP CUT OFF
UPPER LEVEL LOW FORMING OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO. THIS LOW MEANDERS
AROUND THE GULF BENEATH THE STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE
EASTERN THIRD OF THE NATION. THE ECMWF ALSO SHOWS A MUCH WEAKER
AND SHALLOWER CUT OFF LOW FORMING UNDER THE RIDGE. HOWEVER...IT
PLACES THE LOW OVER THE ARKLATEX AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. AT
THIS TIME...HAVE MORE CONFIDENCE IN THE ECMWF SOLUTION...AND HAVE
LEANED TOWARD THAT FOR THE WEEKEND. WITH THIS SOLUTION IN
MIND...EXPECT SOUTHERLY FLOW TO BE IN PLACE IN THE LOW LEVELS...AS
A STRONG SURFACE RIDGE REMAINS ENTRENCHED OVER THE SOUTHEAST.
ALOFT...STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGING LATE IN THE WORK WEEK...WILL
ALLOW FOR WARM TEMPERATURES AND CLEAR SKIES. BY THE WEEKEND...AS
THE WEAK CUT OFF LOW FORMS OVER THE REGION...EXPECT A FEW MORE
AFTERNOON CLOUDS...BUT NO RAINFALL...AS A STRONG CAP ALOFT REMAINS
IN PLACE. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL.


&&

.AVIATION...
IN GENERAL...MVFR TO OCCASIONAL IFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED AT
THE THE TERMINAL SITES THIS MORNING DUE TO CEILINGS...ALTHOUGH KBTR
AND KMCB MAY EXPERIENCE VFR CONDITIONS FOR A PERIOD TIME. SHOWERS
AND EVEN A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO WILL THREATENING KMSY AND KGPT UNTIL
13Z OR 14Z. CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE LATE THIS MORNING AND
ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP...ALTHOUGH MVFR CEILINGS MAY LINGER FOR A WHILE THIS AFTERNOON
AT KGPT. 11

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED OVER THE COASTAL WATERS EARLY THIS
MORNING...BUT ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE
CAUTION CRITERIA AGAIN TODAY. SEAS ARE STILL RUNNING AROUND 7 FEET
IN THE OUTER GULF COASTAL WATERS...THEREFORE WE WILL HEADLINE A
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THAT AREA UNTIL NOON FOLLOWED BY THE
EXERCISE CAUTION HEADLINE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY. THE COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS THIS EVENING WITH
WINDS AGAIN IN THE EXERCISE CAUTION RANGE EXPECTED. WINDS WILL
DIMINISH ON MONDAY BEFORE PICKING UP AGAIN MONDAY NIGHT AS A
SECONDARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLIPS THROUGH THE COASTAL WATERS.
GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS WILL PREVAIL FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AS A
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS.


New Orleans Local Weather thread - dkmac - 04-20-2009 05:23 AM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
340 AM CDT MON APR 20 2009

.SHORT TERM...

DEEP NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT COMBINED WITH STRONG RIDGING IN THE LOW
LEVELS WILL ALLOW FOR A VERY QUIET WEATHER PATTERN TO DOMINATE THE
FORECAST AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY. STRONG DRY AIR ADVECTION AND
SUBSIDENCE ALOFT WILL BRING CLEAR SKIES...LOW HUMIDITES...AND
FAIRLY LARGE DIURNAL TEMPERATURE RANGES TO THE REGION THROUGH
MIDWEEK. IN ADDITION...SOME WEAK COLD AIR ADVECTION TAKING PLACE
TODAY AND TONIGHT...WILL DROP TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL. TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM BACK TO MORE NORMAL READINGS BY
WEDNESDAY.

.LONG TERM...

GOING INTO THE END OF THE WEEK AND THE WEEKEND...STRONG UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA. SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR
ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS RIDGING WILL BRING CLEAR SKIES AND WARM
TEMPERATURES TO THE REGION. IN THE LOW LEVELS...SURFACE RIDGING
WILL SLIDE TO EAST...ALLOWING FOR A SOUTHERLY FLOW OFF THE GULF OF
MEXICO TO TAKE HOLD. THIS SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR INCREASING
LOW LEVEL HUMIDITY FOR THE WEEKEND. HOWEVER...EVEN AS THE LOW
LEVELS BECOME MORE UNSTABLE...STRONG CAPPING ALOFT WILL
SIGNIFICANTLY LIMIT ANY CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL. OVERALL...A MORE
SUMMER LIKE PATTERN WILL BE THE RULE FOR THE WEEKEND WITH WARM AND
MUGGY CONDITIONS RETURNING TO THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AT ALL FOUR TERMINALS
THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. SURFACE HIGH WILL MOVE OVER NORTHWEST
GULF...YIELDING A LIGHT SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA
AND SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. 18

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS AND SEAS HAVE COME DOWN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA
THIS MORNING. WILL KEEP EXERCISE CAUTION TIL NOON WITH THE SLOW
DECREASE OF WINDS ON THE COASTAL WATERS. A WEAK FRONT WILL TRY TO
PUSH THROUGH THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT...BUT THIS FRONT WILL LIKELY
DISSIPATE OVER THE AREA BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. ONSHORE FLOW WILL
DEVELOP BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY. 18


New Orleans Local Weather thread - dkmac - 04-21-2009 04:30 AM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
336 AM CDT TUE APR 21 2009

.DISCUSSION...
FAIRLY TRANQUIL WEATHER IN STORE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS ACROSS
SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA AND SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI. DEEP UPPER LEVEL LOW
CONTINUES TO SPIN ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION. TROUGH WILL DIG
SOUTHWARD INTO THE SERN US WHILE DRAGGING A WEAK COLD FRONT TOWARDS
THE REGION LATER THIS EVENING. LITTLE IMPACT IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE
AREA EXCEPT FOR A WIND SHIFT AND SLIGHTLY LOWER DEWPOINTS ALONG
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. THERE/S JUST NOT GOING TO BE ENOUGH
PUSH BEHIND THE FRONT TO SHOVE IT COMPLETELY THROUGH DUE TO THE
UPPER TROUGH/S PROXIMITY TO THE AREA. SFC HIGH OVER THE GULF WILL
STRENGTHEN AND SHIFT TOWARDS FLORIDA BY THURSDAY. WELL ESTABLISHED
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL ENSUE AND BRING MOISTURE LEVELS BACK UP. UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD IN MID WEEK AND PROGRESSIVELY MOVE EASTWARD.
NO SIGNIFICANT FEATURES EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEK TO BRING ANY
APPRECIABLE RAIN CHANCES SO HAVE A DRY FORECAST. TEMPERATURES WILL
RESPOND TO INCREASING HEIGHTS WITH HIGHS INTO THE LOWER 80S AND LOWS
IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S AREAWIDE. MODELS SHOW A WEAK TROUGH
DEVELOPING AND TRACKING ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS THIS WEEKEND. THE GFS IS THE SOUTHERN MOST WITH THE
ASSOCIATED FRONT BUT REALLY NOTHING TO AFFECT THE CWA WITH THE
BOUNDARY NEVER REACHING ANYWHERE NEAR THE AREA. MODELS BEGIN
DIVERGING BETWEEN A MORE ZONAL PATTERN TO KEEPING SW FLOW IN PLACE
NEXT WEEK. SO FOR THE MEANTIME...FEW CHANGES EXPECTED.

MEFFER
&&

.AVIATION...
VFR WEATHER WILL PREVAIL THROUGH TUESDAY. SOME VERY PATCHY 5-6 NMI
VSBYS IN BR ARE POSSIBLE 09-13Z TODAY...BUT MVFR TO LOCAL IFR
RESTRICTIONS IN FOG ARE MORE LIKELY LATE MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY
MORNING DUE TO LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER. 22/TD

&&

.MARINE...
SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL SAG INTO THE SWRN GULF TODAY RESULTING IN
WESTERLY WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KNOTS. LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED WITH
HTS IN THE 2 TO 4 FOOT RANGE. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE
REGION TODAY BUT IS NOT EXPECTED TO REACH THE COAST SO WINDS WILL
ONLY WEAKEN SLIGHTLY. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY
THROUGH THE WEEK AS SFC RIDGE SHIFTS EASTWARD THROUGH THE WEEK.


New Orleans Local Weather thread - dkmac - 04-22-2009 04:56 AM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
342 AM CDT WED APR 22 2009

.SHORT TERM...
BACK DOOR FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS STALLED AND CAN BARELY BE RESOLVED
AT THE SFC BUT SHOWS UP NICELY AT 950MB. THE BOUNDARY WILL DRAPE
OVER THE AREA AGAIN TODAY WHILE AN AREA OF WEAK PW VALUES SLIPS
THROUGH OVER MISS WHILE VERY DRY PW VALUES WILL BE FOUND OVER THE
BTR AREA. ANOTHER THING WILL BE THE MEAN FLOW. IT WILL PARALLEL
THE STALLED BOUNDARY OVER BTR AND BE ALMOST PERPENDICULAR OVER THE
MISS ALA BORDER AREA. A MODERATE DISTURBANCE WILL ALSO FALL
THROUGH THE BACK SIDE OF THE UPPER TROUGH TODAY. JUST HEATING WILL
NOT CAUSE ANY TS DEVELOPMENT...IT WILL TAKE THE INCLUSION OF ALL
3 INGREDIENTS...HEATING...STALLED BOUNDARY...AND UPPER DYNAMIC
SUPPORT. COULD HAVE SIMPLY KEPT BTR TO NEAR MSY OUT OF ANY CHANCE
OF RAINFALL AT ALL BUT WITH THE BOUNDARY STILL IN PLACE HAVE OPTED
TO KEEP THEM WITH THE TOKEN 10%. THE BEST AREA TO SEE THE TRUE 10
OR POSSIBLY EVEN 20% WILL BE HARRISON AND JACKSON COUNTIES BY THIS
AFTERNOON. LAPSE RATES ARE VERY STRONG AND SO IF ANYTHING GETS
GOING...IT WONT TAKE MUCH TO PRODUCE HAIL. THE PROBLEM WITH ALL
THIS WILL BE THE PLACEMENT OF THE UPPER TROUGH. IT HAS MOVED A
LITTLE FARTHER NE AND THEREFORE ANYTHING THAT MOVES DOWN THE BACK
SIDE WILL ALSO BE PLACED A LITTLE FARTHER NE. THIS COULD MEAN THAT
ANY ACTIVITY THAT DOES DEVELOP COULD DO SO JUST OUTSIDE OUR AREA.
THIS IS THE REASON FOR THE 10% FOR THE GPT PQL AREAS AS WELL.

.LONG TERM...
UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO PULL NE AS RETURN FLOW BEGINS AND MID
LEVEL RIDGING BEGINS OVER THE SOUTH. ANOTHER STRONG UPPER TROUGH
WILL DIG ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY BY WEEKS END. THIS
WILL EVENTUALLY BRING ANOTHER COLD FRONT THROUGH LATE NEXT WEEK.

EASTERLY WAVES MOVE THROUGH THE ATLANTIC BASIN ALL YEAR BUT BECOME
MORE PRONOUNCED IN THE SPRING AND SUMMER. THEY ARE MOSTLY KEPT FAR
TO THE SOUTH AS THE ITCZ SINKS SOUTH DURING THE WINTER BUT BEGIN
TO MIGRATE NORTH IN THE SPRING. SOME HINTS OF THESE EASTERLY WAVES
ARE SHOWING UP IN GLOBAL MODELS NOW AS THE EASTERLY TRADES TRY TO
ESTABLISH THEMSELVES. THEY CAN BE SEEN AS SMALL INVERTED TROUGH
DISTURBANCES MOVING ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF A STRONG RIDGE THROUGH
THE CARRIBEAN. NO ISSUES THOUGH...JUST FUN FACTS.

&&

.AVIATION...
SURPRISE FROM THE NORTHWEST SET-UP IS IN PLACE TODAY. A PW SWATH
WITH VALUES AROUND 0.8 OF AN INCH FROM NORTH FLORIDA...ACROSS
NORTHEAST GULF...ACROSS SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA TO WEST CENTRAL
LOUISIANA. AS A RESULT...PUBLIC HAS 10 PERCENT RAIN CHANCES ACROSS
MSY AND BTR THIS AFTERNOON. TOO LOW FOR AREAL COVERAGE AND WILL USE
VICINITY SHOWERS AFTER 21Z AT MSY AND BTR. NO STRONG DISTURBANCE IS
PRESENT IN NORTHWEST FLOW...SO A REPEAT OF YESTERDAY CONVECTION IS
NOT EXPECTED. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITION CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH
THURSDAY MORNING. 18

&&

.MARINE...
SURFACE HIGH OVER THE CENTRAL GULF WILL SLOWLY SLIDE EAST AND
PRODUCE A MORE SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER THE COASTAL WATERS THIS
AFTERNOON. ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. 18


New Orleans Local Weather thread - dkmac - 04-23-2009 04:28 AM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
348 AM CDT THU APR 23 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
SEEING A FEW LOW STRATUS THIS MORNING AS ONSHORE FLOW IS GETTING
SOME MOISTURE TRAPPED UNDER AN INVERSION. THE INVERSION SHOWED UP
PRETTY WELL ON THE 00Z LCH SOUNDING. LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS KEEPING
TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS IN THE 60S THIS MORNING. THE COOL SPOT
IS RIGHT OUTSIDE OUR BACK DOOR...WHERE IT IS 60 DEGREES.
&&

.SHORT TERM...
ANY EARLY MORNING STRATUS SHOULD MIX OUT BY ABOUT 14Z OR SO. MAY
SEE SOME CUMULUS INLAND FROM ANY SEABREEZE BOUNDARY THAT FORMS
AROUND MIDDAY. UPPER RIDGE TRANSITIONS FROM TEXAS TO THE GEORGIA
FLORIDA AREA BY SATURDAY. THIS WILL PROVIDE A CONSISTENT ONSHORE
FLOW FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. WHILE UPPER IMPULSES ARE EXPECTED TO
MOVE UP AND OVER THE RIDGE...DEEP MOISTURE WILL BE VERY LIMITED.
IF ANY CONVECTION WERE TO DEVELOP OVER THE AREA...AREAL COVERAGE
WOULD BE EXPECTED TO BE CONSIDERABLY LESS THAN 20 PERCENT...SO
WILL NOT MENTION IN FORECAST.

TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE HAS FALLEN SHORT OF MOTHER NATURE THE LAST
FEW DAYS...USUALLY BY ABOUT 3 DEGREES. GUIDANCE DID WARM THINGS UP
A COUPLE OF DEGREES FOR TODAY...SO WILL GO NEAR OR JUST ABOVE
GUIDANCE VALUES. CANNOT REALLY SEE ANY REASON FOR FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY TO BE ANY COOLER THAN TODAY WITH NO AIRMASS CHANGE OR
PRECIPITATION EXPECTED. ONLY SLIGHT DIFFERENCE IS A GREATER
ONSHORE COMPONENT TO THE WIND...WHICH IS WHAT IS PREVENTING ME
FROM GOING UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90. 35
&&

.LONG TERM...
UPPER RIDGE REORIENTS FROM THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF TO NORTHERN
FLORIDA BY SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THIS SHOULD KEEP UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVES TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE AREA. THESE SHORTWAVES MAY BE
CLOSE ENOUGH...HOWEVER...TO ALLOW ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION
TO DEVELOP. THIS COULD OCCUR AS EARLY AS MONDAY NIGHT...BUT BETTER
CHANCES WOULD BE FROM TUESDAY ONWARD. AT THIS TIME...DO NOT SEE
ANY SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER OR FLOODING EVENTS IN THE SCENARIO.

GUIDANCE IS DEFINITELY SHOWING TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL IN THE
EXTENDED PERIOD...ABOUT 5 TO 7 DEGREES...ESPECIALLY ON LOWS. 35
&&

.AVIATION...
SHALLOW LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INDICATED ON MODEL SOUNDINGS WILL YIELD
LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG THIS MORNING...MAINLY MCB...GPT AND BTR.
OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE DAY AT TAF
SITES. MVFR CONDITIONS AT MCB DUE TO BR FRIDAY MORNING.
OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. 18
&&

.MARINE...
SURFACE HIGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE EAST GULF OF MEXICO PROVIDING AN
ONSHORE FLOW THROUGH THE WEEKEND. 18


New Orleans Local Weather thread - dkmac - 04-24-2009 03:36 AM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
348 AM CDT FRI APR 24 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE HIGH SITS JUST SOUTH OF TALLAHASSEE THIS MORNING...WITH
THE CLOSEST COLD FRONT IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS PUTS OUR AREA
IN LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHERLY FLOW. INVERSION WAS HINTED AT ON
LCH AND TAE 00Z SOUNDINGS...WITH THE BOUNDARY OF THE INVERSION
SOMEWHERE AROUND 1500 FEET. THAT`S WHERE THE THIN LOWER CLOUDS ARE
AT THIS MORNING. THIS IS ABOUT 800 FEET HIGHER THAN YESTERDAY...SO
LOW CLOUDS MAY BE A LITTLE MORE PREVALENT THAN FOG...THE OPPOSITE
OF YESTERDAY MORNING. DEW POINTS...AND TEMPERATURES...ARE ALL OVER
THE PLACE THIS MORNING...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI COAST.
BIX AT 08Z IS 71/67...LESS THAN 30 MILES AWAY...PQL 57/55...THEN
MOB BACK AT 66/63.
&&

.SHORT TERM...
SURFACE RIDGE AXIS REMAINS OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. UPPER
SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHWEST SECTION OF THE CWA. MOISTURE
IS EXTREMELY LIMITED THOUGH...SO ONLY A FEW ADDITIONAL CLOUDS SHOULD
RESULT...MAINLY ON SATURDAY. GFS HINTS AT A SMALL POSSIBILITY OF
PRECIPITATION SUNDAY AFTERNOON...WHICH APPEARS TO GENERATE ALONG A
POSSIBLE SEABREEZE BOUNDARY. WILL KEEP AN EYE ON THE POTENTIAL FOR
THIS...BUT NOT INCLUDE IN FORECAST AT THIS TIME. UPPER RIDGE
REINTENSIFIES FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND. EXPECT TEMPS TO
REMAIN 3-5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR MOST AREAS...EXCEPT SATURDAY
WHICH MAY BE CLOSER TO NORMAL WITH ADDITIONAL CLOUDS. 35
&&

.LONG TERM...
MODELS CONTINUE TO HINT AT ISOLATED PRECIPITATION DURING THE AFTERNOONS
AGAIN ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY AND WILL CONTINUE THE 20 PERCENT POPS.
UPPER RIDGE STRENGTHENS OVER THE GULF AGAIN...SO ANY PRECIPITATION
THAT DOES DEVELOP WILL DO SO ON THE MESOSCALE LEVEL...NOT THE
SYNOPTIC LEVEL. AFTER TUESDAY...CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION IN OUR
AREA LOOK RATHER SMALL THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
ABOVE NORMAL...ESPECIALLY TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK. KEEPING IN
MIND THE MEX GUIDANCE TENDENCY TO DRIFT TOWARD CLIMATOLOGY ON DAYS
7 AND 8...THE END OF NEXT WEEK WILL BE RATHER WARM. MEX DATA
SHOWING TEMPS IN MID AND UPPER 80S FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY ACROSS
THE ENTIRE AREA...AND WOULD NOT BE SHOCKED...AT ALL...IF BTR OR
MCB HITS 90 ONE OF THOSE DAYS. WILL NOT GO THAT EXTREME FOR DAY 7
WITH THIS PACKAGE...BUT WORTH KEEPING AN EYE ON. 35
&&

.AVIATION...
THE SURFACE DEWPOINT PLOTS ARE NOT UNIFORM BUT ALL FOUR TAF SITES
INDICATED A SOUTHEAST WIND AS OF 09Z. WINDS MAY COLLAPSE AT MCB AND
BTR AND IFR CONDITIONS MAY OCCUR THROUGH 13 TO 14Z THIS
MORNING...MVFR AT MSY AND GPT. GENERALLY VFR FROM 15Z TODAY THROUGH
09Z SATURDAY AND WE REPEAT THE PATCHY FOG AND LOW CLOUDS CONDITIONS
SATURDAY MORNING. 18
&&

.MARINE...
PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW OF MODERATE INTENSITY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
THE RELATIVELY TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST GULF AND WINDS WILL LIKELY RESPOND WITH THE STRONGEST
WINDS ACROSS WESTERN LEGS. WILL ISSUE AN ADVISORY TONIGHT AND SEE IF
GFS BL OF 24 KNOTS MIXED DOWN TONIGHT. MAY HAVE TO EXPAND AND EXTEND
ADVISORY OVER THE WEEKEND. IN ADDITION...LONG FETCH MAY PRODUCE
SWELLS ON THE OUTER WATERS OVER THE WEEKEND. 18