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New Orleans Local Weather thread - dkmac - 03-21-2009 07:23 AM

Area forecast discussion
national weather service new orleans la
419 am cdt sat mar 21 2009

.short term...
First cold front will move into the area an stall near the coast
wednesday. A strongly 30h split level flow will move over central
la and miss wed inducing several severe ts north of the area. The
tail end of this upper supportive flow will skirt the northern
portion of the cwa providing a launching pad to developing ts.

With the stationary boundary over the area...a few disturbances
will ride along the frontal axis providing another couple of days
of rainfall through thursday.

.long term...
Moisture and thermal properties will become uniform across the
stalled boundary thursday causing it to wash out. A new stronger
cold front will then move through fri night into sat morning. This
front should clear the mess out for a few days.

&&

.aviation...
Generally clear/vfr weather will prevail the next 24 hours. Slight
vsby restrictions of 5 to 7 nm in br/hz are possible after 06-09z
saturday night into sunday morning. 22/td

&&

.marine...
Large and strong high pressure area covering the eastern half of the
conus and most of the gulf of mexico will become anchored from the
mid atlantic coast towards the central gulf coast through monday. A
series of upper level systems will produce a deep surface low over
the lee of the central rockies this weekend and the upper plains
states early next next week. A tightening pressure gradient will
cause moderate east to southeast winds today becoming moderate to
strong on sunday. Small craft advisories will likely be required on
sunday and continuing through the middle and possibly the end of
next week as strong onshore winds and high seas will prevail. Given
the long duration of this moderate to strong onshore flow...tides
are expected to increase to above normal levels along the coast and
in the tidal lakes by tomorrow and continuing into next week. Tides
of 1 to perhaps 2 feet above normal are possible...especially monday
night through tuesday night. The range of predicted tides will be
decreasing during this period...but this will still have to
monitored for a possible coastal flood watch/advisory later this
weekend or early next week. 22


New Orleans Local Weather thread - dkmac - 03-22-2009 06:47 AM

Area forecast discussion
national weather service new orleans la
410 am cdt sun mar 22 2009

.short term...
Some changes are in the offing as we get further into spring. Severe
weather has so far eluded us for the most part. Starting to look
like that will no longer be the case as we approach the end of this
week. The first of two cold fronts will make its way into the area
before stalling near the gulf coast. This will be the front
responsible for inducing a strong gradient well over the gulf
causing a deep strong fetch to set up with wind speeds in the 20 to
30 knot range. Sh/ts will continue to fester along the frontal axis
even after it stalls over se la and southern miss. The majority of
activity should fire with the help of day time heating wed. A strong
disturbance will rotate through the base of the long wave trough and
move over the boundary as it moves north as a warm front. This will
cause the very unstable bl to connect with the good dynamic
structure of the mid and upper level jets and lifting variables. We
should see a rapid fire of ts along the reactivated front over
southern miss by thu morning. Still some question if we will see
this activity in our northern cwa. Is a good possibility that
locations near and along the la/miss state line could be the launch
area for these ts.

Noting the deep fetch of strong winds over the gulf...tides should
begin to rise along the shoreline tonight and monday and could be as
high as 1.5 feet above normal within 48 hours(tue morning). Tidal
piling will continue to keep tides well above normal until a much
stronger cold front passes sat morning. A coastal flood advisory may
be issued if and when tides are expected to go above 2 feet above
normal.

.long term...
The next problem comes in the form of the strongest dynamically
structured...thermally unstable cold front seen so far this season.
There are so many severe weather variables coming into play with
the system that it would take all day to show each representative
value. But would suffice to say that all global models are very
similar that far out and indicate the same thing for the same time
period. The cold front moves into the area friday night into sat
morning and the locally run model(ros) solutions and numbers (ri
numbers) are simply off the chart with this system. This event is
still well in the future but that should give us plenty of time to
prepare for a widespread severe weather event carrying with it all
the svr wx problems...ie tornados...damaging winds...large
hail...heavy rainfall and frequent to continuous lightning. Other
fcast queries such as exact timing and placement of highest probs
of svr wx will continue to be refined as we approach the end of
the week.


&&
.aviation...
Areas of br and patchy radiation fog will continue through about
14z...but any ifr conditions should be limited to kmcb. Mid/high
clouds will be increasing early this morning which will reduce the
radiational cooling effects. Scattered cumulus clouds with bases
025-030 will develop this morning around kmsy with higher
few-sct030-040 at all taf sites expected this afternoon. Ese-se
winds will rise to 12-15 knots with gusts 20-23 knots this
afternoon at kmsy and kgpt. Mostly vfr conditions will prevail
after 14z today...and higher winds tonight into monday morning will
prevent fog/br formation. 22/td

&&

.marine...
Large and strong high pressure area over the eastern half of the
conus and most of the gulf of mexico will remain in place from the
mid atlantic coast towards the central gulf coast through monday. A
series of upper level systems will produce a deep surface low over
the lee of the central rockies this weekend and the upper plains
states early next next week. A tightening pressure gradient will
cause moderate to strong east to southeast winds today through
monday...then strong southeast winds can be expected tuesday into at
least early wednesday. Small craft advisories are in effect for the
outer coastal waters this afternoon...and have now been expanded in
area and time to include all the coastal waters tonight through
tuesday. Winds and seas may drop off wednesday as a weakening cold
front approaches...but will likely rise gain towards thursday and
friday as the next stronger weather system approaches.

Given the long duration of this moderate to strong onshore
winds...tides are expected to increase to above normal levels along
the coast and in the tidal lakes tonight into next week. Refer to
the short term discussion for information on potential coastal
flooding. 22/td


New Orleans Local Weather thread - dkmac - 03-23-2009 06:01 AM

Area forecast discussion
national weather service new orleans la
412 am cdt mon mar 23 2009

.short term...
No major changes from previous thinking. Strong southerly winds
will continue through much of the week at least over the gulf.
Over land...winds will be dependant upon the few frontal systems
that will affect the area. Lighter winds wed as the first of two
fronts moves in and stalls. As strong winds persist over the
gulf...tides will continue to be 1 to 2 feet above normal through
much of the week as well. Weather associated with the first front
will need to be watched as a few ts could be strong with an
isolated severe possible.

.long term...
The second cold front is still looking
very capable of producing severe wx. A few concerns with gfs
solution as it is trying to start lifting the sfc low from the red
river valley in tx/ok into the midwest states by fri night. This
would stretch the cold front quickly causing a more linear type of
ts event. There is still enough dynamic forcing for this squall
line to produce severe ts fri night into sat. All global suites
are trying to come toward a similar solution. Summary...no changes
in severe wx potential will be made.

&&
.aviation...
/discussion for 12z taf issuance/
generally vfr conditions are expected today and tonight...although
mvfr ceilings may develop at times after 06z tuesday. Winds are
likely to be too high tonight and tuesday morning for much in the
way of fog formation. There may be a brief period of light
fog...mvfr category...early this morning around 12z. 11

&&

.marine...
A large high pressure area over the eastern conus coupled with a
deepening surface low moving into the plains was maintaining a
southeast to east flow over much of the gulf early this morning. The
pressure gradient is expected to remain fairly tight today and
increase on tuesday as the surface low and associated upper level
system moves east northeast across the plains and into the upper
mississippi valley through tuesday. Winds will remain marginal today
for a small craft advisory however seas will approach or meet the
threshold...especially in the outer coastal waters. Winds are
expected to increase somewhat on tuesday. Winds and seas may drop
off wednesday as a weakening cold front approaches...but will likely
build again thursday through early saturday as the next and
stronger system approaches.

Given the long duration of the moderate to strong onshore
winds...tides are expected to increase to above normal levels along
the coast and in the tidal lakes during the week. 11


New Orleans Local Weather thread - dkmac - 03-24-2009 07:07 AM

Area forecast discussion
national weather service new orleans la
510 am cdt tue mar 24 2009

.short term...
The dakotas are getting lashed this morning as a very strong
spring storm winds up and moves north. This same system will be
responsible for sending a cold front to our doorstep and
stalling it near the coast wed. Severe wx will then enter the
picture as low and mid level thermal values will support it. The
front will also enhance lift for the cells that develop and move
along it. Things should continue to go downhill from there as a
deep moist bl and strong heating commence thu. Even in the absence
of upper dynamic support for the most part...we should see enough
bouyant forcing into some of the strongest lapse rates seen in a
while...to keep ts developing with a few reaching severe limits. The
thu event may start by late morning and go through much of the
evening. A short reprieve will begin fri 1am until mid morning and we
then drop into severe wx mode once again but this time there will
be plenty of support upstairs. Li`s of -9 and lapse rates will
also move up to around 7c/km. Sfc lift will increase to better
than 3000 joules with the hottest part of the day while a split
flow develops aloft. Plenty more variables but these are
impressive. Ros numbers are quite impressive even for thu into thu
night. Fri numbers have not met the time quota by the nam ros but
should by the 12 run. Gfs ros numbers have not changed much and
still bring strong helicity and many other strong severe wx
variables into the area thu and fri. 3 days to watch for strong to
severe wx should be enough.

.long term...
The cold front moves through saturday morning and clears things
out for at least the remainder of the fcast period.

&&

.aviation...
/discussion for 12z taf issuance/
mostly vfr conditions were being observed early this morning...
However ifr to mvfr visibilities and ceilings were being noted at
kmcb at times. Periods of mvfr ceilings will be possible at each of
the taf sites this morning...with generally vfr conditions this
afternoon. Mvfr to occasionally ifr ceilings are expected tonight
and wednesday morning along with increasing chances for convection
as a cold front approaches from the northwest. 11

&&

.marine...
Moderate to occasionally strong onshore flow will continue through
the work week as a series of strong upper level storm systems pass
to our north and west. As a result of the long duration of onshore
flow and the considerable fetch across the gulf...seas are expected
to continue to build with tides remaining above normal during the
period...generally 1 to 2 feet above normal. A small craft advisory
will continue through wednesday for the gulf coastal waters...while
a small craft should exercise caution headline will remain in place
for lakes pontchartrain and maurepas today. A cold front will push
through the coastal waters late friday night and saturday morning.

The coastal flood watch for the mississippi coast starting tonight will
be expanded to include areas of southeast louisiana around lakes
pontchartrain and areas east of the mississippi river. 11


New Orleans Local Weather thread - dkmac - 03-25-2009 05:57 AM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
509 AM CDT WED MAR 25 2009

.SHORT TERM...
TODAY...
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL SLOWLY MOVE INTO EXTREME SOUTHERN MISS
THIS MORNING. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS BEGINNING TO STALL AS WELL
AND WILL BE ORIENTED FROM WEST TO EAST. FIRST PROBLEM IS THE
STRONG CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS ALONG THE FRONTAL AXIS AND UPPER
SUPPORT. THESE VARIABLES WILL HELP TS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP THROUGH
THE DAY WITH SEVERAL MOVING PARALLEL TO THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
THIS IS NEVER A GOOD THING SINCE THE TS CAN TAKE FULL ADVANTAGE
OF THE FRONTS FREE LIFT WITHOUT ANY HEATING. TS WILL ALSO BE ABLE
TO USE THE BL DYNAMIC VALUES SUCH AS HELICITY. ANY TS MOVING ALONG
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL STAY IN A RICH HELICITY ENVIRONMENT WITH
STRONG LIFT. ALL THESE PARAMETERS PROVIDE THE REASONING FOR STRONG
TO SEVERE TS WORDING TODAY.

CANCELED THE COASTAL FLOOD WATCH AND REPLACED WITH A STATEMENT AS
WE MOVE TOWARD LOW TIDE TODAY. HIGHER TIDES ARE STILL EXPECTED FOR
FRIDAY AS WATER CONTINUES TO PILE ALONG THE COAST.

TONIGHT...
A SFC LOW WILL DEVELOP OVER EAST TX BY THIS EVENING AS STRONG
CONVECTION KICKS OFF IN THAT AREA. THE SFC LOW WILL EJECT NE
FORCING THE STALLED FRONT TO MOVE SLIGHTLY MORE SOUTH BEFORE
STALLING AGAIN. AS THE LOW TEMPORARILY REACTIVATES THE
FRONT...THERE WILL BE A CHANCE TO SEE STRONG TO SEVERE TS TONIGHT.

THURSDAY...
SINCE THE OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE IN THE AREA THURSDAY...WE
SHOULD CONTINUE TO SEE TS DEVELOP WITH SOME DAYTIME HEATING
POSSIBLE TO THE SOUTH OF THE FRONT. THIS WILL ALSO LEND TO THE
POSSIBILITY OF STRONG TO SEVERE WORDING.

THURSDAY NIGHT...
A VERY STRONG IMPULSE MOVES OUT OF THE SW JET ALOFT PROVIDING
STRONG UPPER SUPPORT WHILE THE OLD BOUNDARY IS STALLED OVER THE
AREA A CONNECTION BETWEEN THE VOLATILE SFC VARIABLES AND THE
STRONG MID/UPPER SUPPORT WILL KICK OFF SOME VERY STRONG TS WITH
SEVERAL GOING TO SEVERE LIMITS. THE ORIGINATION AREA LOOKS TO BE
NEAR THE LAFAYETTE AREA. IT THEN MOVES ENE THROUGH THE AREA FROM
MIDNIGHT TIL 6AM. ALL SEVERE WX VARIABLES SUCH AS
TORNADOS...DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE HAIL...CONTINUOUS
LIGHTNING AND VERY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE IN THE HAZARDS.

FRIDAY...
STILL IN THE WARM SECTOR WITH PLENTY OF FUEL AHEAD OF THE MAIN
COLD FRONT WHICH WILL BEGIN TO APPROACH THE AREA. NUMEROUS SH/TS
SHOULD DEVELOP IN THIS WARM SECTOR AHEAD OF THE FRONT DURING THE
DAY WITH A FEW OF THESE POSSIBLY BECOMING SEVERE.

FRIDAY NIGHT...
THE MAIN EVENT WILL BE THE COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH. SINGLE CELL
TYPE ACTIVITY AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL GIVE WAY TO A LINEAR SQUALL
LINE ALONG THE FRONT. MOST OF THIS WILL BE STRONG WINDS WITH ANY
SEVERE TS.

.LONG TERM...
ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED IN FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
NOT SURE HOW MUCH MOISTURE WILL BE ABLE TO POOL ALONG THIS
BOUNDARY...BUT LOOKS LIKE THERE WILL BE ENOUGH TO KICK OFF SOME
SH/TS WITH IT. ANOTHER STRONG SYSTEM GETS GOING OVER THE FOOTHILLS
CAUSING THE DOWNSTREAM FRONT TO STALL NEAR THE COAST AND QUICKLY MOVE
BACK NORTH FOR WEDNESDAY...BUT REALLY NOT SURE IF THE TUESDAY
FRONT WILL EVEN MAKE IT THAT FAR.

&&
.AVIATION...
/DISCUSSION FOR 12Z TAF ISSUANCE/
MOSTLY MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY AND TONIGHT AT EACH OF THE
TAF SITES DUE TO CEILINGS. THE THREAT FOR CONVECTION WILL INCREASE
THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH KBTR AND ESPECIALLY KMCB MAY
SEE THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...PRIOR TO 14Z OR
15Z. 11

&&

.MARINE...
MODERATE TO OCCASIONALLY STRONG ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK IN ADVANCE OF A STRONG COLD FRONT
THAT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL LIKELY BE THE STRONGEST TODAY INTO
TONIGHT AND THEN AGAIN FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT INCREASES IN ASSOCIATION WITH UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES
APPROACHING AND MOVING ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THE MOST
POTENT SYSTEM WILL BE AN UPPER LOW/TROUGH THAT WILL MOVE INTO THE
LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY FRIDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY AS IT BEGINS
TO TAKE ON A NEGATIVE TILT. AS A RESULT OF THE PERSISTENT SOUTHEASTERLY
AND THEN EVENTUALLY SOUTHERLY FLOW...TIDES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL
UNTIL THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE AT THE END OF THE WEEK. TIDES ARE
RUNNING 1 TO 2 FEET ABOVE NORMAL EARLY THIS MORNING AND ARE HEADING
TOWARD LOW TIDE WHICH WILL OCCUR DURING THE MORNING HOURS AT MOST
LOCATIONS. THE COASTAL FLOOD WATCH THAT IS IN EFFECT FOR THE
MISSISSIPPI COAST AND THE SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA COAST EAST OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER...INCLUDING LAKES PONTCHARTRAIN AND MAUREPAS...WILL
BE REPLACED WITH A COASTAL FLOOD STATEMENT WITH THE EARLY MORNING
PACKAGE RELEASE. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT INTO
THURSDAY MORNING FOR THE GULF COASTAL WATERS WHERE SEA CONDITIONS
AND OCCASIONALLY WINDS WILL MEET THE CRITERIA. 11


New Orleans Local Weather thread - Southernbelle - 03-26-2009 03:45 AM

It's storming on the northshore.


New Orleans Local Weather thread - dkmac - 03-26-2009 05:21 AM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
401 AM CDT THU MAR 26 2009

.SHORT TERM...

IN THE IMMEDIATE TERM...TORNADO WATCHES REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR
COASTAL MISSISSIPPI AND THE SOUTHSHORE AND COASTAL SECTIONS OF
SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA...AS A STRONG LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS MOVES
THROUGH THE REGION IN ADVANCE OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THIS FRONT IS
ADVANCING THROUGH THE AREA ON THE BACK OF A STRONG SURFACE LOW
CURRENTLY SLIDING THROUGH THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. HOWEVER...THIS LOW
WILL CONTINUE TO EJECT TO THE EAST AT A RAPID CLIP...LEAVING THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY BEHIND OVER THE REGION. THE FRONT WILL HAVE
LITTLE IMPETUS TO MOVE AFTER THE SURFACE LOW EXITS THE
REGION...DUE TO A NEARLY PARALLEL FLOW ALOFT. THIS STRONG
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL ALSO SEND A SERIES OF FAST MOVING UPPER
LEVEL IMPULSES ACROSS THE AREA TODAY INTO TONIGHT. THESE
IMPULSES...COMBINED WITH A STRONG 100+ KNOT JET STREAK OVER THE
GULF SOUTH WILL PROVIDE AMPLE UPPER LEVEL LIFT AND ALLOW FOR THE
CONTINUED DEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION TODAY INTO TONIGHT. IN
FACT...LOOKING AT THE LATEST MODEL SOUNDINGS FOR TONIGHT...IT
APPEARS THAT ANOTHER ROUND OF HEAVY RAINFALL AND SEVERE WEATHER
CAN BE EXPECTED. ONCE AGAIN...THE MOST SEVERE WEATHER LOOKS TO BE
NORTH OF THE I-10 CORRIDOR. STRONG HELICITY VALUES WILL SUPPORT
THE DEVELOPMENT OF LINE ECHO WAVE PATTERNS WHICH COULD LEAD TO
ISOLATED TORNADOES AND DAMAGING WIND EVENTS. ALSO...I DO NOT
LIKE THE PRECIP LOADED LOOK OF THE ATMOSPHERE...AND FEAR THAT SOME
TRAINING EVENTS WITH VERY SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL COULD DEVELOP
TONIGHT. THUS...A FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE
ENTIRE CWA THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING.

GOING INTO FRIDAY...THE OVERNIGHT UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE WILL
QUICKLY EXIT THE REGION...ALLOWING A BRIEF PERIOD OF VERY WEAK SUBSIDENCE
TO BUILD IN. THIS RELATIVELY CALM PERIOD WILL SEE POPS DROP INTO
THE LIKELY CATEGORY FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF TIME. HOWEVER...ALTHOUGH
PRECIP COVERAGE WILL BE LESS...AND THE SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL BE
LOWER ON FRIDAY...ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL BE RAPIDLY DEEPENING OVER
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS RAPIDLY DEEPENING LOW WILL CREATE A
STRONG GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION...RESULTING IN VERY BREEZY
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE DAY. DUE TO THESE STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS
COMING IN OFF THE GULF...EXPECT SOME COASTAL FLOODING ISSUES TO
DEVELOP AS TIDES POSSIBLY RISE UP TO 3 FEET ABOVE NORMAL. THIS HAS
PROMPTED THE ISSUANCE OF A COASTAL FLOOD WATCH FOR FRIDAY. GOING
INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...THE WOUND UP LOW IN THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL BEGIN
TO KICK TO THE EAST. A NICE JET COUPLET WILL DEVELOP OVER THE GULF
SOUTH...WHICH WILL SUPPORT EXTREMELY DEEP UPDRAFTS...AND THUS
ANOTHER ROUND OF POTENTIALLY SEVERE WEATHER. STRONG HELICITY
VALUES AND A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET OF 50+ KNOTS OVER THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI WILL ALSO SUPPORT SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT.
GIVEN THE MAKE-UP OF THE WIND FIELD...SUPERCELLS WITH TORNADOES
COULD BE A DISTINCT POSSIBILITY. IN ADDITION...FLASH FLOODING
ISSUES WILL CONTINUE AS THE OVERALL ATMOSPHERE CONTINUES TO REMAIN
EXTREMELY MOIST. THE FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE SURFACE LOW WILL
FINALLY PULL INTO THE COASTAL WATERS AND THEN OUT OF THE REGION
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAY CONTINUE
TO BE A RISK INTO SATURDAY MORNING ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI COAST.

IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...STRONG COLD AND DRY AIR
ADVECTION...ALONG WITH DECENT SUBSIDENCE ALOFT WILL ALLOW FOR
CLEAR SKIES AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

.LONG TERM...

GOING INTO NEXT WEEK...BOTH THE EURO AND GFS INDICATE THAT ANOTHER
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DIVE FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. A SURFACE LOW WILL
DEVELOP OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS...ALLOWING FOR DECENT SOUTHERLY
FLOW OFF THE GULF OF MEXICO TO TAKE HOLD OF THE REGION MONDAY
AFTERNOON. IN FACT...MOISTURE RETURN SHOULD BE STRONG ENOUGH TO
ALLOW A FEW SHOWERS TO DEVELOP OVER WESTERN ZONES IN A BROAD AREA
OF PVA AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING TROUGH AXIS. AS THE TROUGH AXIS
AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONT SLIDE INTO THE REGION MONDAY
NIGHT...ENOUGH LIFT AND INSTABILITY SHOULD BE IN PLACE TO ALLOW
FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING.

HOWEVER...THE MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE HEADING INTO MIDWEEK AND
BEYOND. THE GFS DIGS ANOTHER TROUGH INTO THE FOUR
CORNERS...KEEPING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT IN PLACE. THIS WILL
ALLOW FOR A MORE UNSETTLED PATTERN TO REMAIN...AS A SERIES OF WEAK
DISTURBANCES ROLL THROUGH. HOWEVER...THE EURO GOES WITH A MUCH
DRIER SCENARIO AS A MORE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW TAKES HOLD. AT THIS
TIME...HAVE DECIDED TO GO WITH A SOLUTION CLOSER TO THE
GFS...KEEPING WARM TEMPERATURES AND A PERIODS OF CONVECTION IN THE
FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION...

CONTINUED PERIODS OF CONVECTION THROUGH THE DAY WILL KEEP MVFR AND
IFR CONDITIONS IN PLAY AT ALL OF THE TERMINALS THROUGH TOMORROW
MORNING. WINDS WILL REMAIN STRONG AND GUSTY OUT OF THE SOUTH
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL CONTINUE FOR THE COASTAL WATERS AS
STRONG SWELL TRAINING ASSOCIATED WITH STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW
CONTINUES TO BRING ROUGH BOATING CONDITIONS TO THE REGION. SEAS OF
7 TO 9 FEET AND WINDS IN EXCESS OF 20 KNOTS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
FRIDAY NIGHT AS A STRONG AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS IN THE
PLAINS STATES. CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN TO IMPROVE THIS WEEKEND AS
WINDS SHIFT TO THE NORTH AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE GULF
SOUTH. TIDES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL OVER THE NEARSHORE
WATERS...WITH COASTAL FLOODING EXPECTED.


New Orleans Local Weather thread - T-man in Lafitte - 03-26-2009 05:39 AM

The train has pulled into the station.


New Orleans Local Weather thread - Southernbelle - 03-27-2009 03:54 AM

The train is stuck on the track again tonight. This is some scarey weather.


New Orleans Local Weather thread - T-man in Lafitte - 03-27-2009 03:59 AM

It's a long train comin' thru tonight