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New Orleans Local Weather thread - ROLLTIDE - 05-10-2006 06:27 AM

rea Forecast Discussion

000
FXUS64 KLIX 100909
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
409 AM CDT WED MAY 10 2006

.DISCUSSION...
PATTERN SETTING UP LOOKS SIMILAR TO THE SAME ONE DURING THIS SAME
TIME IN 1960 JUST NOT AS COLD. RECORD LOWS LOOK TO BE SAFE FOR NOW
BUT MAY HAVE TO REVISIT THIS WITH TIME. MODELS OBVIOUSLY HAVING A
HARD TIME HANDLING THE COLD AIR PLUNGE FROM THE NORTH SINCE THE
NUMBERS WILL BE FAR AWAY FROM THE NORMAL LINE OF REGRESSION. THIS
WAS SHOWN VERY WELL BY THE GFS DECREASING TEMPS BY ABOUT 6 DEGREES
EVERYWHERE FOR TONIGHT ONCE THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. THE ONLY
MODEL TO PICK UP ON THIS TREND EARLY WAS THE ETA ROS WHICH IS RAN
LOCALLY.

CURRENTLY...TWO AIR FLOWS AT JET LEVEL ARE MERGING OVER THE NEW
MEXICO-WEST TEXAS REGION. THIS IS CAUSING A LOT OF SUBSIDENT
WARMING WHICH IS ALSO HELPING TO KEEP ANYTHING FROM DEVELOPING OUT
THAT WAY. BUT WHERE THESE TWO FLOWS SPLIT OVER THE RED RIVER
VALLEY OF NORTHERN TX LARGE SCALE LAYER LIFTING IS OCCURRING.
ABUNDANT MOISTURE IS BEING FUNNELED TO THIS AREA AS WELL. AS SMALL
SHORT WAVES MOVING THROUGH THE MAIN TROUGH MOVE INTO THIS UPPER
DIVERGENT AREA TS EXPLODE. NOT MUCH HAS CHANGED YET AND THEREFORE
THE SAME AREAS DOWNSTREAM OF THE SOURCE REGION WILL CONTINUE WITH
THIS DYNAMIC EVENT THIS MORNING. THIS DIVERGENT UPPER LEVEL AREA WILL
BEGIN TO SINK SOUTHWARD TODAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE
US/CANADIAN ROCKIES BEGINS TO DIG AND MOVE SE. THIS WILL TEND TO
FLATTEN THE UPPER/MID LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE GULF SOUTH LETTING
SH/TS DEVELOP INTO SOME VOLATILE DYNAMICS ALOFT. THERE WILL BE A
SHARP CUT OFF OF THESE TS TO THE SOUTH OF WHERE THEY FORM. FOR
THIS REASON...WE ARE KEEPING 20% FROM THE LAKES SOUTH UNTIL THIS
EVENING. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BE FLATTENED ENOUGH BY THEN TO ALLOW
A STRONG COLD FRONT TO MOVE THROUGH BY LATE TONIGHT AND THU
MORNING.

THIS COLD FRONT WILL BE THE SECOND MAJOR EVENT. NOT JUST WITH
SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL BUT WITH UNSEASONABLY COOLER NORTHERLY
FLOW WHICH WILL BE ADVECTING AIR FROM NORTHERN CANADA. EVENTHOUGH
THE AIR WILL MODIFY GREATLY AS IT MOVES SOUTH...IT WILL BE COOL
ENOUGH TO CAUSE OUR TEMPS TO FALL WELL BELOW NORMS FOR MAY.

THE UPPER LOW OVER MONTANA AND THE DAKOTAS THIS MORNING WILL MOVE
SE INTO NORTHERN MISSOURI WHILE A STRONG SFC LOW OCCLUDES OVER THE
GREAT LAKES AREA THURSDAY. THE UPPER LOW WILL GET CUT OFF FROM THE
WESTERLIES AND BE FORCED SOUTHWARD BY AN UPPER RIDGE FORMING NORTH
OF IT. THE UPPER LOW WILL BE FORCED INTO THE DEEP SOUTHEAST U.S.
BY SUNDAY...ALL THE WHILE...SEVERAL SFC COLD FRONTS WILL MOVE
THROUGH HERE TO REINFORCE THE COOL AIR UNTIL THE UPPER LOW GETS
CAUGHT UP IN THE MAIN FLOW BY THE MIDDLE TO END OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB 86 57 78 49 / 40 40 0 0
BTR 87 61 79 50 / 30 40 0 0
MSY 89 65 79 57 / 20 40 0 0
GPT 85 64 77 52 / 30 40 0 0

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...


New Orleans Local Weather thread - ROLLTIDE - 05-11-2006 05:17 AM

Area Forecast Discussion
000
FXUS64 KLIX 110820
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
320 AM CDT THU MAY 11 2006

.DISCUSSION...COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA THIS EARLY MORNING AND SHOULD CONTINUE TOWARD THE
NORTHWEST GULF AFTER DAYBREAK. MUCH OF THE LINGERING CONVECTION IS
NOW CONFINED MAINLY OVER THE COASTAL AREAS WITH A GRADUAL CLEARING
TREND WORKING ITS WAY SOUTHWARD ACROSS NORTHWEST LA. HIGH PRESSURE
SHOULD THEN BUILD ACROSS THE GULF BEGINNING FRI BEFORE MOVING EAST
TOWARD THE ATLANTIC BASIN SUN IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT.
THIS NEXT FRONT LOOKS TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA SUN AS THE MAIN
UPPER TROUGH MEANDERS OVER THE EASTERN STATES KEEPING MUCH OF THE
GULF REGION LOCKED IN A NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME ALOFT. ENOUGH
MOISTURE THOUGH LOOKS TO SWING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN BASE OF THE
TROUGH ALONG THE SURFACE BOUNDARY SUN BRINGING WITH IT THE NEXT
CHANCE OF RAIN AND THUNDER. AFTERWARDS...ITS PREDOMINANTLY A TEMP
FORECAST AS HIGH PRESSURE EXPANDS ACROSS THE PLAINS STATES WITH
TEMPS HOVERING NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL VALUES.
&&


New Orleans Local Weather thread - ROLLTIDE - 05-12-2006 08:08 AM

rea Forecast Discussion

000
FXUS64 KLIX 120823
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
323 AM CDT FRI MAY 12 2006

.DISCUSSION...DRY AND TRANQUIL CONDITIONS LOOK TO PREVAIL ACROSS
THE OUTLOOK AREA FOR ANOTHER 24 HOURS BEFORE ANOTHER WARMING TREND
BEGINS. HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE CONTINUES TO BUILD EASTWARD
ACROSS THE GULF THIS MORNING AS A BROAD UPPER LOW DOMINATES THE
EASTERN CONUS. THE NEW GUIDANCE STILL SHOWS THE SURFACE HIGH
PROGRESSIVELY MOVING TOWARD THE ATLANTIC BASIN SAT IN ADVANCE OF
THE NEXT COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO SWEEP THROUGH THE REGION LATE SAT
AND EARLY SUN. WHILE NORTHWEST FLOW PREVAILS ALOFT...A GOOD
MOISTURE POOL STILL LOOKS TO SWING UNDER THE BASE OF THE UPPER LOW
WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE BRINGING THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN AND
THUNDER TO THE AREA. THE RAIN LOOKS TO CLEAR THE AREA LATE SUN AS
ANOTHER CLEARING AND COOLING TREND BEGINS MON. TEMPERATURES MAY
TRY TO REBOUND BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS ANOTHER DOME OF HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH THE MIDDLE GULF WITH NORTH TO NORTHWEST
FLOW PREVAILING ALOFT.
&&


New Orleans Local Weather thread - ROLLTIDE - 05-13-2006 08:13 AM

Today: Mostly sunny, with a high around 86. Southwest wind between 5 and 15 mph.

Tonight: Isolated showers and thunderstorms. Partly cloudy, with a low around 65. South wind around 10 mph. Chance of precipitation is 10%.

Sunday: Scattered showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, with a high around 84. West wind between 10 and 15 mph. Chance of precipitation is 30%.

Sunday Night: Scattered showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, with a low near 63. West wind between 5 and 15 mph. Chance of precipitation is 30%.

Monday: Mostly sunny, with a high around 78. North wind between 10 and 15 mph.

Monday Night: Mostly clear, with a low around 61.

Tuesday: A 20 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Partly cloudy, with a high near 80.

Tuesday Night: Mostly clear, with a low around 64.

Wednesday: Mostly sunny, with a high around 80.

Wednesday Night: Mostly clear, with a low near 67.

Thursday: Mostly sunny, with a high around 85.

Thursday Night: Mostly clear, with a low around 70.

Friday: Partly cloudy, with a high near 86


New Orleans Local Weather thread - ROLLTIDE - 05-14-2006 07:08 AM

Today: Scattered showers and thunderstorms, mainly after 1pm. Partly cloudy, with a high near 83. West wind between 5 and 10 mph. Chance of precipitation is 30%.

Tonight: Scattered showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 66. Calm wind becoming north around 5 mph. Chance of precipitation is 30%.

Monday: Isolated showers and thunderstorms before 1pm. Partly cloudy, with a high around 77. North wind between 10 and 15 mph. Chance of precipitation is 20%.

Monday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low near 65. North wind between 10 and 15 mph.


New Orleans Local Weather thread - ROLLTIDE - 05-15-2006 04:52 AM

0
Fxus64 Klix 150800
Afdlix

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans La
300 Am Cdt Mon May 15 2006

.discussion...
No Changes To Ongoing Pack. Beautiful Weather Expected To Continue
Through Much Of The Week. Current Cold Front Just Passing Baton
Rouge Hammond And Picayune This Morning And Finally Beginning To Ease
Into The Slidell Area. Slow Movement Will Keep New Orleans On The
Muggy Side For A While This Morning But The Dry Air Should Reach
The Metro Area Before Noon Today. Strongly Modified Caa Will Keep
Temps Below Average Through The Week With A Very Dry Forecast.
Not A Bad Start To Summer.

&&


New Orleans Local Weather thread - ROLLTIDE - 05-16-2006 05:19 AM

000
Fxus64 Klix 160748
Afdlix

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans La
248 Am Cdt Tue May 16 2006

.discussion...
Wow!!!!!!!! Nice Weather Is The Only Thing That Comes To Mind.
Strong Upper Low Responsible For This Weather Continues To Carve
Out A Huge Piece Of Real Estate Over The Eastern Half Of The
Country. As Long As The Upper Low Stays In Place...reinforcing
Surges Of Cool Air From The North Will Move Through The Area
Keeping Temps Well Below Normal. Well Below Normal Enough To
Threaten Record Lows For All Locations North Of The Lakes. Will
Add Wording Of Near Record Lows In Zones This Morning. This Is
Expected To Occur Through Wednesday. Starting Thursday We Begin To
Familiarize Ourselves With What Our Summer Heat And Humidity
Actually Feel Like.

700mb Deep Thermal Trough Is Beginning To Move Over The Area This
Morning. Its Expected To Stay Around Through Wednesday Causing
Some Very Steep Lapse Rates. Useing The Cu Rule With Convection
During The Day...we Should See More Cloud Cover Which Will Also
Act To Keep Temps Down A Few Degrees Through The Daylight Hours.
Deep Enough Moisture Will Exist By This Evening Mostly Over
Southern Mississippi To Squeeze Out A Sprinkle Or Two. This Will
Be More Apparent Wednesday. The High That Settles Across The Gulf
Will Move East Of The Area Thursday Bringing Southerly Winds Back
To The Central Gulf Coast.

Record Lows For Msy/btr:
May 16 May 17
New Orleans: 46 197351 1967
Baton Rouge:51 197353 1956

New Orleans And Areas South Look To Be Quite Safe With Respect To
Record Lows Being Broken. On The Other Hand...baton Rouge And All
Areas Along And North Of The North Shore Will Be Very Close If Not
Meeting Record Low Temps This Morning And Tomorrow Morning.



&&

.preliminary Point Temps/pops...
Mcb 77 52 79 55 / 10 10 10 10
Btr 78 54 81 58 / 0 0 10 10
Msy 79 61 82 63 / 0 0 10 10
Gpt 77 54 80 58 / 10 0 10 10

&&

.lix Watches/warnings/advisories...
La...none.
Gm...none.
Ms...none.
Gm...none.
&&


New Orleans Local Weather thread - ROLLTIDE - 05-17-2006 05:20 AM

Area Forecast Discussion
000
FXUS64 KLIX 170811
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
311 AM CDT WED MAY 17 2006

.DISCUSSION...
NICE WEATHER CONTINUES. WILL BEGIN TO MOVE TEMPS UPWARD AFTER
TODAY. BY THE WEEKEND WE SHOULD BE BACK INTO NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS. ONCE AGAIN WITH DAYTIME HEATING...CU CLOUDS
WILL FORM WITH SOME SPRINKLES POSSIBLE THROUGH THE DAY. NEXT EVENT
WILL BE COMING UP OVER THE WEEKEND INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE NEXT
WORK WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL DROP DOWN FROM THE NORTH AS ANOTHER
ARCTIC RIDGE HEADS SOUTH. QUESTION WILL BE WILL THE COLD FRONT
MAKE IT THIS FAR SOUTH? ATTM THINKING IS THAT IT WILL NOT. THE
UPPER LOW OVER THE NE MOVES OUT AS AN UPPER RIDGE AMPLIFIES OVER
THE ROCKIES INTO SOUTHERN CANADA. THIS LEADS ME TO BELIEVE THE
ARCTIC HIGH WILL MOVE INTO THE CENTER OF THE COUNTRY AND THEN MOVE
EAST CAUSING THE COLD FRONT TO STALL SOMEWHERE NEAR OUR AREA. THIS
WILL ALSO BEGIN TO MAKE FOR A VERY DEEP FETCH OF SOUTHERLY WINDS
OVER A GOOD PERIOD OF TIME BRINGING THE HUMIDITY BACK TO THE AREA.
THE HEAT WILL ALREADY BE BACK CAUSING FOR SOME STICKY WEATHER BY
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB 79 54 85 59 / 10 05 05 05
BTR 81 56 87 62 / 10 05 05 05
MSY 82 61 84 67 / 10 05 05 05
GPT 79 57 84 62 / 10 05 05 05

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.


New Orleans Local Weather thread - ROLLTIDE - 05-18-2006 05:16 AM

Area Forecast Discussion

000
FXUS64 KLIX 180912
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
412 AM CDT THU MAY 18 2006

.DISCUSSION...
WILL MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST THE NEXT 7 DAYS AS THERE APPEARS TO
BE LITTLE HOPE FOR MUCH NEEDED RAIN.

THE UNSEASONABLY DEEP MID/UPPER TROUGH THAT BROUGHT US PLEASANT
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL SOON BE A THING OF THE PAST AS THE
TROUGH SLIDES EAST OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD INTO THE ATLANTIC
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. WESTERLY SURFACE WINDS AND RISING THICKNESS
VALUES WILL BRING HIGH TEMPERATURES BACK TO NEAR NORMAL TODAY
AFTER A COOL START. DEWPOINTS WILL BE RISING BACK TO MORE TYPICAL
60S ON FRIDAY AND THEY COULD BE BACK NEAR 70 DEGREES EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES EAST...A MID/UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER
THE NATIONS MID SECTION THIS WEEKEND AS A DEEP UPPER TROUGH MOVES
INTO THE WESTERN CONUS. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO CLIMB TO
ABOVE NORMAL FOR HIGHS AND NEAR NORMAL FOR LOWS. WITH THE
HEAT...THERE IS ALWAYS CONCERN FOR AFTERNOON CONVECTION...
HOWEVER...THE COMBINATION OF SHALLOW MOISTURE RETURN AND A
MID LEVEL SUBSIDENCE INVERSION SHOULD INHIBIT DEEP CONVECTION AND
MEASURABLE RAIN. CLOUD COVER WILL BE CLEAR TO MOSTLY CLEAR IN THE
SHORT TERM AND MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY IN THE DAY 3 TO 7
TIME FRAME.

&&

.MARINE...
UNFAVORABLE WEST AND SOUTHWEST WINDS UP NEAR 12 OR 13 KNOTS WILL
CREATE PERIODS OF CHOPPY LAKE AND PROTECTED WATER CONDITIONS TODAY
AND FRIDAY. CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE A BIT THIS WEEKEND WITH A
LIGHTER MORE DUE SOUTH WIND EXPECTED BY SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...
PATCHY GROUND FOG IS POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING...OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR WEATHER.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
LOWEST RELATIVE HUMIDITIES MAY DROP INTO THE LOWER 30 PERCENT
RANGE TODAY...THEN RH/S WILL INCREASE THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS WINDS
BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY.


New Orleans Local Weather thread - ROLLTIDE - 05-19-2006 05:16 AM

rea Forecast Discussion

000
FXUS64 KLIX 190850
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
350 AM CDT FRI MAY 19 2006

.SYNOPSIS/DISCUSSION...
NORTH AMERICAN SCALE WATER VAPOR SATELLITE LOOPS SHOW A FAIRLY
STABLE AND AMPLIFIED MID/UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WITH A EAST PACIFIC
TROUGH...WESTERN CONUS RIDGE...AND EASTERN CONUS TROUGH. THE
SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE TROUGH OVER THE GULF COAST HAS BEEN SLOWLY
PROGRESSING EAST WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE NOW CENTERED OVER THE
CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST GULF OF MEXICO. THIS HAS CAUSED TEMPERATURES
TO WARM QUITE A BIT OVER THE LAST 24 TO 36 HOURS.

OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...THE MID/UPPER LEVEL FEATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO MOVE SLOWLY EAST AND BECOME LESS AMPLIFIED. THE
CENTRAL GULF COAST WILL COME UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF RIDGING ALOFT
WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPRESS ANY PRECIPITATION DEVELOPMENT AND
BRING WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN...ALTHOUGH SLIGHT...WILL COME NEXT
THURSDAY OR FRIDAY. BY THAT TIME...THE CAP MAY WEAKEN AND THE
PATTERN LOOKS SUPPORTIVE OF ISOLATED DIURNAL SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FORMING ON SEA AND LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARIES.

&&

.MARINE...
MODERATE TO STRONG WEST AND SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KNOTS HAVE
BEEN OCCURRING MOST OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. SMALL CRAFT SHOULD
EXERCISE CAUTION EARLY THIS MORNING. WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH TO 10
TO 15 KNOTS SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE...BUT THEY COULD INCREASE TO
NEAR 15 KNOTS AGAIN THIS EVENING. IMPROVING CONDITIONS WITH WINDS
GENERALLY AROUND 10 KNOTS OR LESS ARE EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR WEATHER PREVAILS. MIXING FROM BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS SHOULD
PREVENT FOG THIS MORNING. SOME BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS FROM LIGHT
FOG MAY OCCUR LATE TONIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY MORNING...OTHERWISE VFR
CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH THE WEEKEND.