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Saratoga County, NY - winter123 - 06-15-2009 03:03 PM

We're about to be hit by a pretty nasty looking E-W line dropping east and south... I'll take some video. Severe storms like popcorn in eastern new york down into NE PA today.

http://www.weather.com/outlook/driving/interstate/map/interactive/12020?from=36hr_svrWarn_driving&zoom=8&interactiveMapLayer=radar&animation=true


Saratoga County, NY - winter123 - 06-15-2009 03:40 PM

Jinxed it i guess, the storm split in two to the west and east of here. Just a lot of thunder. Sad

is this rotation by amsterdam?

[Image: 56943962.png]


Saratoga County, NY - ROLLTIDE - 09-21-2009 01:12 PM

000
FXUS61 KALY 211744
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
130 PM EDT MON SEP 21 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE OUR WEATHER THROUGH THIS
EVENING. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE UNSETTLED DURING
THE MID WEEK PERIOD AS A WEAKENING COLD FRONT APPROACHES OUR
REGION...HOWEVER TEMPERATURES WILL BE MILD.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
UPDATED MOSTLY TO REMOVE MORNING FOG. A FEW AREAS OF FOG OR
LOW STRATUS REMAIN ALONG THE MOHAWK...HUDSON...HOUSATONIC...
AND CONNECTICUT RIVERS...ELSEWHERE THE FOG HAS CLEARED OUT.
HAVE MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPERATURE AND DEWPOINT
GRIDS.

RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS FA EARLY THIS
MORNING AND AS CENTER OF RIDGE SLIDES EAST OFF THE NEW ENGLAND
COAST THIS AFTERNOON...EXPECT A RETURN FLOW OF MILDER AIR TO MOVE
INTO FA WITH TEMPS ON AVERAGE 3 TO 5 DEGREES WARMER THAN SUNDAY.
SOME CIRRUS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO FA FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST
DURING THE AFTERNOON WHICH MAY FILTER THE SUN...BUT EXPECT SKIES
TO BE MOSTLY SUNNY TO SUNNY WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
TIMING AND COVERAGE OF PCPN VERY UNCERTAIN DURING THE MID WEEK
PERIOD AND THIS POINT WILL GENERALLY GO WITH SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW
CHANCE POPS ACROSS MUCH OF FA FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
WITH A DRY FORECAST ON WED NIGHT. FRONT AL BOUNDARY MOVING INTO
THE OHIO VALLEY AND EASTERN GREAT LAKES THIS EVENING WILL CONTINUE
TO WEAKEN AS IT MOVES EAST INTO BACK EDGE OF RIDGE AXIS. IN
ADDITION EXPECT MUCH OF THE PCPN ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FRONTAL
BOUNDARY TO CONTINUE TO LIFT FROM SSW TO NNE...THUS EASTWARD
PROGRESSION OF SHOWERS WILL BE SLOW WHILE THEY TEND TO DIMINISH ON
THE EASTERN EDGE AT THE SAME TIME. H10-H8 THETA E RIDGE AXIS DOES
NOT REACH FA ON GFS OR ECMWF TIL TUE EVENING WITH NAM BEING 6 TO
12 HOURS EARLIER AND THIS MAY BE THE KEY TO THE FORECAST AS IT
LOOKS LIKE IT WILL TAKE A CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF TIME TO MOISTEN
UP THE LOWER LEVELS. AT THIS POINT WILL PUT HIGHEST POPS ACROSS
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS ON TUE...OTHERWISE AFOREMENTIONED SLIGHT
CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS MAINLY TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH LOWEST
POPS ACROSS SOUTHEAST ZONES. WILL KEEP WEDNESDAY NIGHT DRY FOR NOW
AS FIRST SURGE OF MOISTURE SLIDES SOUTH AND EAST OF FA. AS FOR
TEMPS HAVE BASICALLY USED A BLEND OF MAV/MET WITH HIGHS ON TUESDAY
IN THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S AND WEDNESDAY IN THE 70S TO AROUND 80
AND LOWS UPPER 40S TO MID 50S TONIGHT...MID 50S TO LOWER 60S
TUESDAY NIGHT...AND MID 40S TO MID 50S WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
BOTH THE 00Z GFS AND EUROPEAN MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD SYNOPTIC
AGREEMENT DURING THIS TIME FRAME.

ANOTHER POLAR FRONT WILL DROP ACROSS THE REGION TO START OFF THE
PERIOD. SINCE THIS FRONT IS COMING FROM THE RELATIVELY DRY PLAINS OF
CANADA...MOISTURE WITH IT LOOKS LIMITED.

THE 00Z EURO LOOKS "WETTER" WITH THIS SYSTEM...PROBABLY TOO WET.
HOWEVER...WILL INCLUDE SLIGHT POPS ON THURSDAY FOR A BRIEF PASSING
POSSIBLE SHOWER ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT.

THEN...YET ANOTHER FINE STRETCH OF WEATHER LOOKS TO BE ON TAP FRIDAY
INTO SATURDAY AS CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE...DROPS SOUTHWARD FROM THE
UNPOLLUTED AND CHILLY PLAINS OF CANADA. THIS HIGH WILL COOL H850 HPA
TEMPS DOWN TO AT LEAST +4C TO +8C FROM NORTH TO SOUTH ACROSS THE
REGION BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL TOP OUT IN THE
LOWER 70S IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY ONLY...60S REMAINDER OF THE
AREA...EXCEPT 50S OVER THE HIGHEST TERRAIN NORTH AND WEST OF TOWN.

A CHILLY NIGHT EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT WITH MORE FROST POSSIBLE NORTH
AND EAST OF ALBANY. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL FALL WELL DOWN INTO THE 40S
IN THE HUDSON VALLEY...30S ELSEWHERE. THEN LOTS OF SUNSHINE EXPECTED
SATURDAY WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES AS THE SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS
OFFSHORE AND A SOUTHERLY FLOW ENSUES...ALLOWING FOR TEMPS TO
MODERATE SOMEWHAT. PROJECTED HIGH TEMPS LOOK TO RIGHT ON TARGET TO
FOR LATE SEPTEMBER.

BY SUNDAY AS THE SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASES...BOTH THE GFS/EUROPEAN
DRIVE A WARM FRONT TOWARDS US. THE EUROPEAN IS WETTER WITH THIS
FEATURE BUT THE GFS ALSO INDICATES SOME MEASURABLE RAINFALL. FOR
NOW...WILL GO WITH A 30 POP...MAINLY FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON AFTERNOON.

ON THE HEELS OF THIS SYSTEM WILL COME ANOTHER POLAR FRONT FOR
MONDAY. THE EUROPEAN IS STRONGER WITH THIS FEATURE AS IT IS TIED AN
UPPER AIR LOW AND ANOTHER DIGGING EASTERN US TROUGH. THE GFS IS
WEAKER WITH THIS SYSTEM...INDICATING LESS IN THE WAY OF SHOWER
ACTIVITY...BUT STILL THE THREAT OF IT.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
AFTER SOME RADIATION/RIVER VALLEY FOG ISSUES SKIES CLEARED BY 15Z
ACROSS THE REGION FOR ANOTHER FINE VFR DAY.

ASIDE FROM A FEW WISPS OF CIRRUS...SKIES SHOULD REMAIN CLOUD FREE
THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WERE GUSTING TO 15 KNOTS AT ALBANY...AS
WELL AS AT SEVERAL SITES TO THE WEST OF THE REGION BUT OTHERWISE
WERE LESS THAN 8 KNOTS. HIGH PRESSURE...OFF THE NORTHEAST COAST...
WAS DOMINATING THE WEATHER THIS AFTERNOON.

CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH A SYSTEM OVER THE MIDWESTERN STATES WERE
STREAMING IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST BUT WERE DISSIPATING IN THE DRIER
AIR OVER THE REGION. THEY WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND
THICKEN STARTING THIS EVENING. HOWEVER AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS
THAT THE CLOUDS WILL BE THIN ENOUGH TO ALLOW RADIATIONAL COOLING
TO TAKE PLACE THIS EVENING WITH FOG AND/OR STRATUS AGAIN FORMING
ESPECIALLY IN VALLEYS AND NEAR BODIES OF WATER. WE HAVE IFR
VISIBILITY AND CIGS FORECAST FOR TONIGHT FOR KGFL AND KPOU AS A
RESULT WITH CALM WINDS. WE EXPECT SOME LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS
WILL PERSIST AT KALB...SO ARE LOOKING FOR ONLY A BRIEF PERIOD
OF MVFR VISIBLITY AND IFR CIG DUE TO LOW STRATUS THERE...AS
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL TEND TO KEEP RIVER FOG NORTH OF THE FIELD.

ON TUESDAY...ONCE THE SUN COMES UP...WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY
3 TO 6 KNOTS AND FOG/STRATUS WILL BURN OFF AND MIX OUT BETWEEN
09Z AND 12Z AT KPOU...10Z AND 1230Z AT KALB...AND BETWEEN 12Z
AND 14Z AT KGFL WHERE IT TENDS TO PERSIST THE LONGEST. CLOUDS
WILL INCREASE DURING THE DAY TUESDAY BUT CIGS SHOULD REMAIN
WELL ABOVE VFR MINIMUMS.

OUTLOOK...
TUE NIGHT-WED...VFR/MVFR CHC OF -SHRA.
WED NGT-SAT...VFR...NO SIG WX.-- End Changed Discussion --


&&


Saratoga County, NY - ROLLTIDE - 09-22-2009 10:43 AM

000
FXUS61 KALY 221227
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
827 AM EDT TUE SEP 22 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT OFF SHORE TODAY. A WEAKENING FRONTAL
BOUNDARY TO OUR WEST WILL TOUCH OFF SOME SHOWERS...MAINLY NORTH AND
WEST OF ALBANY. TWO MORE COLD FRONTS WILL SLIP SOUTH FROM CANADA.
THE FIRST ONE WILL CROSS OUR REGION LATE WEDNESDAY OR WEDNESDAY
NIGHT WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN TEMPERATURE. THE SECOND STRONGER COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH ON THURSDAY. A COOLER CANADIAN AIR MASS WILL
FOLLOW.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
-- Changed Discussion --
AS OF 827 AM...WIDESPREAD BATCH OF SHOWERS HAS MOVED INTO THE
WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...WITH ADDITIONAL SHOWERS ENCROACHING ON THE
MOHAWK VALLEY AS WELL. WILL UPDATE FORECAST TO MENTION NUMEROUS TO
OCCASIONAL SHOWERS FOR THESE AREAS THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY AFTERNOON.
SHOWERS BEING AIDED BY LIFT FROM AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE EVIDENT
ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND ASSOC JET MAX LOCATED NORTH OF THE
REGION. SOME OF THE SHOWERS HAVE BEEN MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY
ACROSS THE TUG HILL REGION...AND SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL REACH
THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS WITH RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF ONE QUARTER TO ONE
THIRD OF AN INCH. SHOWERS SHOULD TEND TO DIMINISH BY LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AS LIFT DECREASES WITH DEPARTING DISTURBANCE.

PREVIOUS NEAR TERM DISCUSSIONS...

WILL ISSUE AN UPDATE AS THE STRATUS HAVE EXPANDED QUITE A BIT SO WE
WILL JUST CALL IT MOSTLY CLOUDY TODAY. LOWERED TEMPS A POINT ACROSS
THE BOARD AS WELL. SHOWERS OVER OUR NW ZONES LOOKS TO REMAIN NORTH
AND WEST OF ALBANY...AT LEAST THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS.

A BROKEN LINE OF SHOWERS IS STILL FOUND OVER WESTERN NEW
YORK...ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAKENING FRONT AND SHORT WAVE. THE BEST
UPPER JET DYNAMICS TAKES MOST FORCING TO OUR NORTH TODAY WITH THE
BEST CHANCES FOR SHOWER ACTIVITY NORTH AND WEST OF ALBANY. WE WILL
BE DEALING WITH QUITE A FEW CLOUDS. WHILE MOST OF THEM ARE OF MID
AND HIGH LEVEL...THERE ARE STRATUS CLOUDS TO OUR SOUTH SEEN ON THE
11U-3.9U H20 VAPOR LOOP THAT ARE ATTEMPTING TO MOVE NORTH. MOST OF
THEM ARE ACTUALLY REMAINING JUST TO THE EAST OF THE HUDSON VALLEY
BUT COULD VERY WELL ENCROACH INTO THE HUDSON VALLEY THROUGH EARLY
MORNING.

H850 TEMPS ARE ACTUALLY GOING TO COOL A POINT OR TWO FROM THE
EVENING READINGS AROUND +17C. WITH THE CLOUDS AND SLIGHTLY COOLER
H850 TEMPS...SURFACE READINGS WILL TOP OUT A DEGREE OR TWO LOWER
THAN YESTERDAY TOPPING OUT WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF 70.

THERE IS NO INSTABILITY TO SPEAK OF SO WE ARE NOT LOOKING FOR ANY
THUNDER TODAY.-- End Changed Discussion --


&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
BY TONIGHT...THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT WILL LIMP OVER OUR COUNTY
WARNING AREA (CWA) AND PERHAPS PRODUCE A FEW LIGHT ADDITIONAL
SCATTERED SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY OVERNIGHT. A WEAK RIDGE IN THE MID
LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION. WITH CLOUDS
AND HIGHER HUMIDITY...OVERNIGHT LOWS LOOK NOT TO FALL ALL THAT
MUCH...WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF 60.

THEN...ON WEDNESDAY...THE REMNANTS OF THIS FRONT WILL BE TO OUR
EAST. WITH NO GOOD MIXING OF THE ATMOSPHERE OR GOOD DOWNWARD
MOTION CLOUDS WILL LIKELY HANG TOUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. THERE MIGHT
BE A BREAK WHERE OUR REGION GOES SCATTERED IN THE MORNING...BUT AS
ANOTHER FRONT COLD FRONT MOVES FROM THE NORTHWEST...THERE COULD BE
ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS BY AFTERNOON.

WITH ANY BREAKS OF SUNSHINE...AND DEWPOINTS CREEPING UP INTO THE
MID 60S...THE AIR MIGHT BECOME UNSTABLE ENOUGH FOR A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS. SBCAPES OFF THE GFS REACH ABOUT 500 J/KG JUST SOUTH
OF ALBANY BY AFTERNOON WITH LESSER AMOUNTS TO THE NORTH. WITH THE
COLD FRONT PRODUCING SOME LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE...WE DECIDED TO
MENTION THE POSSIBILITY OF THUNDER. AT THIS POINT WE ARE NOT
LOOKING FOR ANY OUT OF THE ORDINARY...NO SEVERE OR EVEN STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED.

TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY WILL BE A LITTLE TRICKY TO FORECAST. IF
WE WERE SOCKED IN WITH CLOUDS ALL DAY LONG...AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL
LIKELY GET MUCH HIGHER THAN 70...EVEN WITH H850 TEMPERATURES
WARMING BACK TO AROUND +15C. HOWEVER...WE DO EXPECT SOME BREAKS OF
SUNSHINE AND ENOUGH MIXING TO SEND AFTERNOON READINGS TO THE 75-80
RANGE...WARMEST IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND COOLEST IN THE
MOUNTAINS WITH READINGS IN THE 70 TO 75 RANGE.

MOISTURE WILL LINGER INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH PERHAPS A RANDOM
OR SHOWER OR TWO. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ON THE MUGGY
SIDE...AGAIN IN THE 60 TO 65 RANGE...EXCEPT 50S WELL NORTH AND
WEST OF ALBANY.

THEN...A STRONGER COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE
ACROSS THE REGION SOMETIME THURSDAY.

THE 00Z NAM IS SLOWER WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE SECOND FRONT AND
ALLOWS FOR A SPIKE IN INSTABILITY BY MIDDAY WITH OVER 1000 JOULES
ACROSS THE CAPITAL DISTRICT BEFORE THE COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE
REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE GFS AND EUROPEAN MODELS HAVE THE
COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH QUICKER WITH MUCH LOWER INSTABILITY. WE
LEAN WITH THE FASTER SOLUTION WHICH SHOULD PRECLUDE ANY
SIGNIFICANT CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. WE WILL CONTINUE WITH SLIGHT
CHANCES OF SHOWERS THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

H850 TEMPS COOL FROM THE TEENS TO ABOUT 6-10C BY LATE THURSDAY.
WITH GOOD MIXING...TEMPERATURES WILL TOP OUT WELL INTO THE 70S
ACROSS THE REGION...PERHAPS TOUCHING 80 ONCE MORE IN THE MID
HUDSON VALLEY...AND CONFINED TO THE 60S ACROSS THE ADIRONDACK
REGION. A GUSTY NORTHWEST BREEZE WILL ENSUE AND BEGIN TRANSPORTING
A GENUINE CANADIAN AIRMASS IN BY DAYS END.

GENERALLY WENT WITH THE MET/MAV BLEND BUT WITH SOME TWEAKING. FOR
TODAY...WE WENT SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN BOTH SET OF GUIDANCES BASED
ON HIGH TEMPERATURES UPSTREAM OF US...WHICH ROSE WELL INTO THE
70S...EVEN WITH ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER. HOWEVER...IF THE SHOWERS OUT
OUR NORTHWESTERN ZONES WERE TO HOLD INTO THE ENTIRE REGION AND
LAST LONG ENOUGH...OUR PROJECTED HIGH READINGS WOULD BE A LITTLE
HIGH.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD STARTS OUT DRY ON FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY
AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHEAST ON FRIDAY DRIFTS OFF THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST ON SATURDAY. THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK LOOKS UNSETTLED WITH THE GEM GLOBAL AND ECMWF
SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN GFS ON BRINGING PCPN ASSOCIATED WITH GREAT
LAKES LOW INTO FA SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS LOOKS AS THOUGH IT MAY BE A
PATTERN SHIFT WITH A RETURN TO A LARGE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN US.
FOR NOW WILL KEEP A DRY FORECAST FROM FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
EVENING FOLLOWED BY CHANCE POPS FROM THE SECOND HALF OF SATURDAY
NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY.

HIGHS FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 60S...ALTHOUGH
THE HIGHER TERRAIN MAY ONLY HAVE HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S ON
MONDAY...WHILE LOWS EXPECTED TO BE IN THE LOWER 30S TO MID 40S
FRIDAY NIGHT AND GENERALLY IN THE 40S SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LOW STRATUS HAS DEVELOPED AT KGFL/KALB/KPOU EARLY THIS MORNING AND
WILL BE SLOW TO LIFT WHICH MAY TAKE UNTIL MID TO LATE MORNING. AT
THIS POINT WILL EXPECT IT TO LIFT BY 15Z-16Z. THEREAFTER...EXPECT
MOST OF TODAY TO BE VFR WITH MAINLY OVC150. HAVE ALSO INCLUDED VCSH
AFTER 16Z AT KGFL AND 18Z KALB BUT WILL LEAVE OUT OF KPOU UNTIL
AFTER MIDNIGHT AS ORIENTATION OF SHOWERS WILL BE MAINLY SSW TO NE
AND SHOULD REMAIN WEST OF KPOU UNTIL AT LEAST THIS EVENING.

LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS THROUGH EARLY THIS MORNING WILL BECOME
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 5-10 KT TODAY INTO TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
WED-THU...VFR/MVFR CHC OF -SHRA.
THU NIGHT-SAT...VFR...NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
RH VALUES WILL REMAIN ELEVATED TODAY...ONLY DROPPING TO AROUND 80
PERCENT IN THE ADIRONDACKS...60-70 PERCENT OVER THE REMAINDER OF
THE REGION. THERE WILL BE SCATTERED SHOWERS...MAINLY NORTH AND
WEST OF ALBANY. RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE UNDER A
QUARTER OF AN INCH IN MOST PLACES...SO THIS MEANS THAT IT HAS BEEN
MORE THAN 8 DAY SINCE OUR REGION HAS HAD SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL.
THE WIND TODAY WILL BE SOUTH 5 TO 15 MPH.

RH VALUES WILL APPROACH 100 PERCENT TONIGHT WITH ISOLATED
SHOWERS...PRODUCING VERY LITTLE (IF ANY) ADDITIONAL RAINFALL.
THE WIND WILL BE LIGHT OUT OF THE SOUTH.

ON WEDNESDAY RH VALUES WILL DROP TO 60 TO 70 PERCENT BY AFTERNOON.
MORE SHOWERS AND EVEN THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE...BUT AGAIN...THE
AVERAGE QPF WILL LIKELY BE UNDER A QUARTER OF AN INCH.

DRIER AND COOLER WEATHER WILL ARRIVE ON THURSDAY.

$$

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE ANTICIPATED THIS WEEK. NEXT CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS TODAY INTO WEDNESDAY ESPECIALLY NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL
DISTRICT AS A WEAKENING BOUNDARY APPROACHES. QPF AMOUNTS WILL BE
LIGHT WITH AVERAGE RIVER BASINS GENERALLY UNDER A QUARTER OF AN
INCH. THIS AMOUNT OF RAINFALL WOULD BE PRODUCE LITTLE IF ANY
RESPONSE ON STREAMS AND RIVERS.

THE NEXT CHANCE OF MORE SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION IS NOT UNTIL
LATE SATURDAY NIGHT.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE ANTICIPATED THIS WEEK. NEXT CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS TODAY INTO WEDNESDAY ESPECIALLY NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL
DISTRICT AS A WEAKENING BOUNDARY APPROACHES. QPF AMOUNTS WILL BE
LIGHT WITH AVERAGE RIVER BASINS GENERALLY UNDER A QUARTER OF AN
INCH. THIS AMOUNT OF RAINFALL WOULD BE PRODUCE LITTLE IF ANY
RESPONSE ON STREAMS AND RIVERS.

THE NEXT CHANCE OF MORE SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION IS NOT UNTIL
LATE SATURDAY NIGHT.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JPV/HWJIV
NEAR TERM...JPV/HWJIV


Saratoga County, NY - ROLLTIDE - 09-23-2009 02:28 PM

00
FXUS61 KALY 231755
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
155 PM EDT WED SEP 23 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
IT WILL BE WARM AND HUMID TODAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL
DIVE SOUTH FROM CANADA. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP AHEAD AND ALONG THIS FRONT FOR THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS WILL BE USHERED
IN ON NORTHWEST WINDS IN THE WAKE OF THE BOUNDARY. CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY AND SHOULD
DOMINATE OUR WEATHER THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 500 AM...KENX RADAR WAS PRETTY QUITE WITH ANY REAL SHOWER
ACTIVITY TO THE WEST AND SOUTH OF OUR REGION...WIDELY SCATTERED AT
THAT. THERE WERE JUST A FEW BLIPS ON THE SCREEN PRODUCING NOTHING
MORE THAN SPRINKLES.

CLOUDS AT VARIOUS LEVELS CONTINUE TO STREAM INTO THE REGION...WITH
LOWER AND DEEPER CLOUDS CONTINUED TO THE WEST AND HIGHER CLOUDS TO
THE EAST.

OUR AREA WILL CONTINUE TO CONTROLLED BY BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE AND
A WEAK RIDGE ALOFT THROUGH THE MORNING. THEREFORE WE EXPECT LITTLE
IF ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY...BUT SINCE THERE ARE A FEW "BLIPS" OUT
THERE WILL CONTINUE WITH THE SLIGHT CHANCE IDEA.

BY THE AFTERNOON...SBCAPES INCREASE TO ABOUT 500 J/KG AHEAD OF THE
COLD FRONT...STILL NORTH OF CANADIAN/US BORDER UNTIL LATE IN THE
DAY. UNLIKE PAST FRONTS...THIS ONE HAS SOME MOISTURE TO WORK WITH
AS PWATS ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE TO ABOUT 1.75 INCHES BY
AFTERNOON...WELL ABOVE THE SEPTEMBER NORM. IT WILL FEEL QUITE
MUGGY AS DEWPOINTS LOOK TO RISE FURTHER INTO THE 60S AND
TEMPERATURES TOP OFF IN THE 75 TO 80 RANGE...EXCEPT LOWER 80S MID
HUDSON VALLEY AND LOWER LITCHFIELD COUNTY.

OUR AREA BECOMES SUBJECT TO DIVERGENCE ALOFT AS THE RR ENTRANCE
REGION OF AN UPPER JET MOVES ACROSS OUR REGION. HOWEVER...SURFACE
CONVERGENCE APPEARS LIMITED AS THERE IS NO EVIDENCE OF A PRE-
FRONTAL TROUGH AHEAD OF THE MAIN COLD FRONT.

THE SURFACE FRONT(AS WELL AS SURFACE CONVERGENCE)...ASSOCIATED
SHORT WAVE AND STILL SOME DIVERGENCE ALOFT LOOKS TO COME TOGETHER
RIGHT AROUND 00Z...(A LITTLE LATER IN THE CAPITAL REGION AND
POINTS SOUTH). THIS IS WHEN WE SHOULD HAVE OUR BEST CHANCE OF SOME
MORE NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO. IT LOOKS
AS IF WE WILL FINALLY END THE LATEST "RAINLESS" STREAK AT 10 DAYS.

THE COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP SOUTH OF OUR REGION BY DAYBREAK. THAT IS
WHEN WILL REALLY NOTICE A CHANGE OF AIRMASS. IT WILL BE STILL BE
MILD AT THIS POINT...WITH TEMPERATURES REMAINING ABOVE 60 FROM
ABOUT SARATOGA SPRINGS SOUTHWARD. HOWEVER DEWPOINTS WILL BEGIN TO
TUMBLE INTO THE 50S AT THIS TIME.

THE WIND PROFILE THROUGH COLUMN INDICATES WIND WILL BE GENERALLY
30 KTS OR LESS THROUGH ABOUT 20,000 FEET WITH MODEST
UNIDIRECTIONAL SHEAR AT BEST. THE COMBINATION OF THIS MODEST SHEAR
AND MODEST SBCAPES TRANSLATES TO THE STRONG UNLIKELIHOOD THAT ANY
THUNDERSTORM WOULD BECOME SEVERE OR STRONG. THE WET-BULB
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ELEVATED ABOVE 12,000 FEET SO THE THREAT
OF HAIL LOOKS MINIMAL AS WELL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
H850 TEMPERATURES...WHICH WILL BE AROUND +15C THROUGH TODAY...WILL
DROP TO BETWEEN ABOUT 10C NORTHERN ZONES...12C OVER ALBANY...AND
13C TO OUR SOUTH...EARLY ON THURSDAY. THESE VALUES WILL DROP ABOUT
5C BY THE END OF THURSDAY. THE SKY WILL PARTIALLY CLEAR ALTHOUGH
THERE COULD BE A SHOWER OR TWO OVER SOME OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN DUE
TO UPSLOPE AND IMPRESSIVE LOW LEVEL COLD AIR ADVECTION VIA GUSTY
NORTH OR NORTHWEST WINDS TO ABOUT 25 MPH.

WE FEEL THAT BOTH THE MET AND MAV GUIDANCE ARE A CATEGORY TOO WARM
FOR THURSDAY SO WE BASICALLY UNDERCUT THEM BY A CATEGORY. THIS
TRANSLATES TO HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 70S IN THE LOCAL TRI-
METRO AREA...UPPER 70S TO OUR SOUTH...AND 70 TO 75 NORTH...EXCEPT
ONLY 60S HIGHEST TERRAIN.

BY THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH A MAINLY CLEAR SKY...H850 TEMPERATURES
ARE PROJECTED OFF THE GFS TO TUMBLE TO BELOW 0C FROM ALBANY
NORTHWARD...AND DOWN TO ABOUT +2C IN THE VICINITY OF KPOU. THESE
VALUES ARE NOT QUITE AS COOL OFF THE NAM AND ESPECIALLY EUROPEAN
WHICH IS ABOUT 3 DEGS WARMER COMPARED TO THE GFS.

EVEN SO...THE MESSAGE IS CLEAR. ANOTHER ROUND OF CHILLY NIGHTS IN
ON TAP THURSDAY AND ESPECIALLY FRIDAY NIGHT.

OVERNIGHT LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT WILL LIKELY BOTTOM OUT IN THE MID OR
UPPER 30S ACROSS THE DACKS AND SOUTHERN GREENS...WITH EVERYONE
ELSE DIPPING INTO THE 40S. A BREEZE OF 5 TO 10 MPH OR MORE MIGHT
MITIGATE THE FORMATION OF FROST...SO FOR NOW...WILL NOT PLACE IT
IN THE GRIDS THAT NIGHT.

DESPITE BRIGHT SUNSHINE ON FRIDAY (MIXED WITH A FEW FAIR WEATHER
CU ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN)...TEMPERATURES WILL
STRUGGLE TO REACH THE 60S OVER OUR COUNTY WARNING...AND WELL TO
THE NORTH AND WEST OF ALBANY...MANY PLACES WILL FALL WELL SHORT OF
THE 60 DEGREE MARK...STAYING IN THE 50S.

ON FRIDAY NIGHT AS LARGE CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE
REGION...THE SKY WILL BE CLEAR AND THE WIND LIGHT OR
CALM...TEMPERATURES SHOULD DROP TO THEIR COOLEST LEVEL SINCE MID
MAY. A DEEP FREEZE WITH LOTS OF FREEZE COULD ENSUE ACROSS THE
DACKS AND SOUTHERN GREENS...WITH LOWER TO MID 30S ACROSS MOST OF THE
REMAINING REGIONS WITH SOME FROST.

FOR NOW...CALLED IT AREAS OF FROST EVERYWHERE (WHERE IT IS COLD
ENOUGH) AND WILL MENTION IT IN OUR HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
(HWO). HOWEVER...WE FEEL IT IS TOO EARLY HEADLINES JUST YET.

ON SATURDAY...AS THE HIGH CENTER MOVES OFFSHORE...A SOUTHERLY
BREEZE WILL DEVELOP BY LATE IN THE DAY...WHICH ALONG WITH MORE
SUNSHINE...WILL MODERATE THE AIRMASS SOMEWHAT...SENDING MOST
PLACES BACK INTO THE 60S...AT LEAST A FEW POINTS HIGHER THAN
FRIDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THIS MORNINGS GLOBAL MODEL RUNS ARE IN RATHER GOOD AGREEMENT. WE
START THIS LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST ON THE TRANQUIL SIDE AS
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT CONTINUES TO MIGRATE OFF THE
NEW ENGLAND COAST. UPSTREAM...THE UPPER LOW SITUATED OVER THE PLAINS
LIFTS NORTHEAST INTO THE WESTERLIES JUST NORTH OF THE U.S. BORDER
AND PROVIDES MOISTURE TRANSPORT FROM THE GULF INTO THE NORTHEAST
OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THIS WILL BRING AN INCREASED CHANCE FOR WET
WEATHER FOR THE END OF THE WEEKEND.

THIS INFLUX OF MOISTURE QUICKLY ADVANCES NORTHEAST SUNDAY NIGHT
LEAVING THE REGION WITHIN A DEVELOPING DRY SLOT AS NEXT AS STRONG
PIECE OF PACIFIC ENERGY CARVES OUT A DEEPENING TROUGH OVER THE GREAT
LAKES AND MID WEST SECTION OF THE COUNTRY FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. SO
WILL DECREASE POPS ACCORDINGLY SUNDAY NIGHT TO SLIGHT CHANCE.

A RATHER POTENT CUT OFF LOW AND DEEP SURFACE LOW TRACKS ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES ON MONDAY. ASSOCIATED STRONG COLD FRONT APPROACHES WITH
AN INCREASED POTENTIAL FOR A LINE OF CONVECTION TO IMPACT THE
REGION. THIS LINE QUICKLY SHIFTS EAST LEAVING BEHIND COLD ADVECTION
AND INCREASED WINDS /PROGGED 850MB-925MB WIND MAGNITUDES ARE BETWEEN
40-45 KNOTS/. FORECAST TEMPERATURES FOR TUESDAY DEPENDS ON WHICH
MODEL YOU PREFER FOR THE THERMAL PROFILE. THE ECMWF IS THE COLDEST
WITH SUB ZERO 850MB TEMPS WHILE THE GFS IS QUITE A BIT MORE
MODIFIED. THE DGEX OFFERS A GOOD COMPROMISE AT THIS TIME AND WILL
FOLLOW ITS PARCEL DRY ADIABATIC DECENT TO LOWER 60S IN THE VALLEYS
AND 50S ELSEWHERE.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
SFC TROUGH...ACCOMPANIED BY A COLD FRONT...IS PRODUCING SHOWERS
OVER NY- CANADIAN BORDER AND INTO CENTRAL NY...WITH AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM OR TWO. AS THIS TROUGH APPROACHES...LOW CLOUDS WILL
INCREASE IN THE LATE AFTERNOON...ACCOMPANIED BY WINDS GUSTING
15-20KTS AT KGFL AND KALB. HAVE INCLUDED CB AT ALL TERMINALS THIS
LATE AFTERNOON INTO EVENING...AND -SHRA AT KGFL AND KALB.

THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH TONIGHT AS IT CROSSES THE
REGION. THE CIGS WILL FALL BACK TO MVFR EARLY EVENING...WITH
VSBYS FALLING TO MVFR AS THE CLOUDS SLOWLY DISSIPATE IN THE EARLY
MORNING HRS. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE IN THE LATE MORNING AS LOW
AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS MOVE OUT AND VFR VSBYS RETURN.

WINDS WILL BE FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 7-12KTS...GUSTING
15-20KTS IN THE AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL SHIFT OVERNIGHT TO THE
NORTHWEST CONTINUING TO SHIFT TO THE NORTH BY LATE MORNING.

OUTLOOK...
THU-SAT...VFR...NO SIG WX. SUN-
MON...VFR/MVFR...CHANCE -SHRA.-- End Changed Discussion --


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE ANTICIPATED FOR THE REST OF THIS WEEK.

SHOWERS ARE LIKELY BY THIS EVENING WITH AN AVERAGE RIVER BASIN OF
A QUARTER INCH OR LESS. SINCE THE GROUND IS SO DRY FROM 10 DAYS OF
NO SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL...RESPONSE ON STREAMS AND RIVERS SHOULD
BE NIL FROM THIS SHOWER ACTIVITY. A RETURN TO DRY WEATHER IS
FORECAST FOR THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN...WITH CHANCES FOR MORE SIGNIFICANT SHOWERS RETURNING ON SUNDAY.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...KGS
HYDROLOGY...


Saratoga County, NY - ROLLTIDE - 09-27-2009 09:36 PM

...


Saratoga County, NY - ROLLTIDE - 09-29-2009 11:56 AM

....


Saratoga County, NY - ROLLTIDE - 09-30-2009 12:15 PM

Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albany, NY

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000
FXUS61 KALY 301324
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
925 AM EDT WED SEP 30 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL REMAIN ANCHORED ACROSS
SOUTHEAST CANADA THROUGH THURSDAY. SEVERAL DISTURBANCES ROTATING
AROUND THIS LOW WILL KEEP UNSETTLED CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
REGION...ALONG WITH CHILLY TEMPERATURES. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST LATE FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY...BRINGING MORE RAIN TO THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 700 AM...JUST A FEW SPRINKLES SCATTERED ABOUT THE
REGION...WITH A MOSTLY CLOUDY SKY. THE BREEZE OUT OF THE WEST OR
NORTHWEST HAS PICKED UP IN THE WAKE OF A VERY WEAK SHORT WAVE THAT
MOVED EARLIER OVERNIGHT. AS THE SUN COMES UP...LAPSE RATES WILL
INCREASE MARKEDLY AND CLOUDS AND EVEN INSTABILITY COVERAGE WILL
INCREASE SOMEWHAT. TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO RISE.

*******PREVIOUS NEAR TERM DISCUSSION*********


AS OF 415 AM EDT...MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES PERSIST ACROSS THE
REGION...ALTHOUGH SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS HAVE DEVELOPED AT TIMES
WITHIN PORTIONS OF THE HUDSON VALLEY REGION. TEMPERATURES HAVE HELD
RATHER STEADY...GENERALLY RANGING FROM THE LOWER/MID 40S ACROSS
HIGHER ELEVATIONS WITHIN THE ADIRONDACKS...TO THE LOWER 50S ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY.

OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...A WEAK SFC TROUGH WILL SWING E ACROSS THE
REGION. THIS WILL SHIFT WINDS INTO A MORE W/NW DIRECTION...AND ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO DROP A FEW DEGREES FURTHER FROM CURRENT LEVELS. A
FEW SPRINKLES ARE POSSIBLE...MAINLY ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN
MOHAWK VALLEY AND SW DACKS.

FOR LATER THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS...WE EXPECT MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES TO PERSIST...ALTHOUGH SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS ARE
POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE HUDSON RIVER
VALLEY...PARTICULARLY WITHIN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY. AN APPROACHING
VORT LOBE/SHORTWAVE FROM THE NW SHOULD ALLOW FOR MORE CLOUDS BY THIS
AFTERNOON...AND IN COMBINATION WITH ENHANCED LOW LEVEL
INSTABILITY...SHOULD ALSO PROMOTE AN INCREASE IN SHOWERS.
HOWEVER...MANY VALLEY REGIONS SHOULD ONLY HAVE AN ISOLATED
SHOWER/SPRINKLE...MAINLY DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON HOURS.
SHOWERS WILL BECOME MORE NUMEROUS AND FREQUENT ACROSS THE WESTERN
DACKS AND MOHAWK VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON...EXTENDING INTO THE
SCHOHARIE VALLEY...AS WELL AS ACROSS PORTIONS OF EASTERN BENNINGTON
CO/WESTERN WINDHAM CO VT...WHERE LAKE ENHANCEMENT AND OROGRAPHIC
LIFT WILL BE MORE PRONOUNCED. SO...FOR POPS...GENERALLY INDICATED
SLIGHT CHC FOR MUCH OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY...INCREASING TO CHC
FURTHER N/W...AND LIKELIEST FOR THE WESTERN DACKS/MOHAWK VALLEY AND
OROGRAPHICALLY FAVORED REGIONS WITHIN WESTERN NEW ENGLAND.

AS FOR TODAY/S MAX TEMPS...TRICKY CALL...AS CURRENT TEMPS ARE STILL
HOLDING NEAR OR ABOVE 50 IN THE VALLEYS. HOWEVER...STRENGTHENING
COLD ADVECTION...AND FORECAST CONVECTIVE TEMPS FALLING INTO THE
UPPER 40S ARGUES FOR LITTLE DIURNAL RISE TO TODAY. THUS...FOR
MAXES...GENERALLY FOLLOWED A GENERAL BLEND OF THE COOLER MET
MOS...AND SLIGHTLY WARMER MAV MOS...WITH LOWER/MID 50S ACROSS MUCH
OF THE HUDSON AND MOHAWK RIVER VALLEYS...EXCEPT FOR SOME UPPER 50S
WITHIN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY WHERE DOWNSLOPING AND A BIT MORE
MORNING SUNSHINE IS POSSIBLE...WHILE HIGHER ELEVATIONS REMAIN OR
EVEN FALL A BIT INTO AND THROUGH THE 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT...ONE SHORTWAVE IS EXPECTED TO PIVOT THROUGH THE REGION
OVERNIGHT AROUND THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL LOW...WHICH SHOULD ENHANCE
CLOUD COVER...AND SHOWER ACTIVITY...ESP WITHIN OROGRAPHICALLY
FAVORED WEST FACING HIGHER ELEVATIONS WITHIN THE DACKS AND SOUTHERN
VT. IN ADDITION...THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR A WEAK LAKE EFFECT
BAND TO DEVELOP ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY.
SO...HAVE GENERALLY INDICATED LOW CHC POPS FOR VALLEYS...AND HIGHER
CHC TO EVEN LOW LIKELIEST FOR HIGHER ELEVATIONS. AS FOR
P-TYPE...THERE IS SOME POSSIBILITY FOR SOME SNOW GRAINS TO MIX IN
WITH RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS LATER TONIGHT...AND THUS
HAVE SOME MENTION OF SNOW IN THE FORECAST. HOWEVER...LITTLE OR NO
ACCUM IS EXPECTED...ESP GIVEN THE RATHER SHALLOW DEPTH OF
MOISTURE...WITH TEMPS AT THE TOP OF THIS MOIST LAYER GENERALLY
AVERAGING -5 TO -10 C...WHICH FAVORS MORE OF A GRAINY SNOW
TEXTURE...AS OPPOSED TO LARGER DENDRITIC SNOW GROWTH. AGAIN...THIS
POTENTIAL WOULD BE MAINLY FOR ELEVATIONS ABOVE 1800 FT ACROSS THE
DACKS AND SOUTHERN VT...AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER REMAINS TOO WARM
ELSEWHERE TO PROMOTE SNOW. AS FOR MIN TEMPS...GIVEN THE EXPECTATION
FOR CLOUDS AND SOME WIND...GENERALLY EXPECT MID/UPPER 30S IN MOST
AREAS...EXCEPT FOR SOME LOWER/MID 30S ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS
OF THE DACKS. SINCE WE EXPECT SOME WIND AND CLOUDS...WE WILL NOT
HOIST ANY FROST ADVISORIES. AND...OTHER THAN SOME ISOLATED HIGHER
ELEVATIONS IN THE DACKS...MOST NORTHERN AREAS WHERE THE GROWING
SEASON IS STILL ONGOING SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING...AND THUS NO
FREEZE HEADLINES. WE WILL NEED TO WATCH FOR ANY BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS
TO DEVELOP...HOWEVER...AS TEMPS COULD FALL LOWER THAN EXPECTED
SHOULD THESE OCCUR.

THURSDAY...YET ANOTHER SHORTWAVE IS EXPECTED TO CROSS NORTHERN AREAS
DURING THE MIDDAY HOURS...WHICH MAY ENHANCE SHOWERS. THUS...HAVE
MAINTAINED CHC POPS FOR NORTHERN AREAS...TAPERING TO SLIGHT CHC
FURTHER S/E. SLIGHTLY DEEPER MOISTURE IS FORECAST TO ROTATE AROUND
UPPER LEVEL LOW INTO NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION...WHICH MAY ACT
TO KEEP MAXES A BIT COOLER THAN TODAY/S. SO...FOR MAXES...GENERALLY
WENT CLOSER TO THE MET MOS...WITH MAXES NEAR OR A DEGREE COOLER THAN
TODAY...MAINLY LOWER/MID 50S IN VALLEYS...AND 40S FOR THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS...WITH EVEN SOME UPPER 30S FOR THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS.
OVERALL...SHOULD BE A RATHER CLOUDY AND CHILLY DAY...MORE NOVEMBER
LIKE THAN THE FIRST OF OCT.

THU NT...ALTHOUGH MAIN UPPER LEVEL LOW SLOWLY DEPARTS TO THE
N/E...LOWERING INVERSION HEIGHT...AND CONTINUED WEAK FLOW OF
MOISTURE FROM LAKES BENEATH THIS INVERSION SHOULD PROMOTE MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT. THIS MAY ACT TO KEEP MIN
TEMPS A BIT HIGHER THAN WOULD BE EXPECTED GIVEN SUBZERO 850
TEMPS...AND FOR MINS...GENERALLY FOLLOWED CLOSER TO THE WARMER MET
MOS...WITH MID/UPPER 30S IN MOST AREAS.

FRI-FRI NT...EXPECT LINGERING LOW CLOUDS FRIDAY MORNING TO BRIEFLY
BREAK...JUST AS HIGH/MID LEVEL CLOUDS AHEAD OF NEXT SYSTEM STREAM NE
INTO REGION. THEN...AS ISENTROPIC LIFT INTENSIFIES...WE EXPECT SOME
SHOWERS TO DEVELOP BY LATE FRI AFTERNOON...INCREASING FURTHER DURING
FRI NT. FOR MAX TEMPS...SOMEWHAT SHALLOW MIXING AND MORE CLOUDS THAN
SUNSHINE SHOULD LIMIT MAX TEMPS...GENERALLY REACHING THE UPPER 50S
TO LOWER 60S IN THE VALLEYS...AND ONLY LOWER 50S ACROSS THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS. FRI NT MINS SHOULD BE FAIRLY UNIFORM ACROSS THE
REGION...GENERALLY IN THE LOWER/MID 50S...WITH SOME RISING TEMPS
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY LATE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
DECENT CONSENSUS IN GUIDANCE/ENSEMBLES ON SYNOPTIC SCALE FEATURES
DURING THE TIME PERIOD. STILL UNCERTAINTY IN TIMING AND QPF DURING
THE WEEKEND AND HOW MUCH COLD ADVECTION BEHIND SYSTEM THE BEGINNING
OF NEXT WEEK.

ON SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...STRONG WARM ADVECTION...ISENTROPIC
LIFT AND LOW LEVEL JET FORCING WILL COMBINE TO SUPPORT A SOLID RAIN
EVENT...ENDING DURING THE DAY SUNDAY. OF COURSE...EXACT TIMING
OF THE END OF THE RAIN IS NOT POSSIBLE AT THIS TIME...BUT AT LEAST
BASED ON LATEST GUIDANCE/ENSEMBLES...THAT IS THE BROAD TIME FRAME
OF THE END OF THE RAIN. EVEN WITH THE CLOUDS AND RAIN
SATURDAY..TEMPERATURES WILL REACH WELL INTO THE 60S...AROUND 70
WARMER SPOTS...COOLER IN HIGHER ELEVATIONS. LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT IN
THE 50S.

BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW TURNS MORE WESTERLY SUNDAY...IMPLYING SOME
PARTIAL CLEARING IN AREAS SUNDAY AFTERNOON. SO WITH MIXING
POTENTIAL...HIGHS SUNDAY AGAIN WELL INTO THE 60S TO NEAR 70.

FLAT UPPER RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE REGION MONDAY AND TUESDAY...AND
COLD ADVECTION WILL SPREAD OVER THE REGION MONDAY...UNTIL UPPER
RIDGING CAN BUILD FURTHER NORTH AND EAST TUESDAY. THE BOUNDARY
LAYER DOES NOT COOL TOO MUCH MONDAY AND TUESDAY. SOME NEUTRAL TO
WARM ADVECTION STARTS UP LATER TUESDAY AS THE UPPER RIDGING
STRENGTHENS AND BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW TURNS MORE SOUTHWEST. HIGHS
MONDAY AND TUESDAY IN THE 60S...50S IN THE MOUNTAINS. LOWS MONDAY
AND TUESDAY MORNING DO NOT LOOK TO BE MUCH OF A FROST OR FREEZE
PROBLEM...AT LEAST IN CURRENT GUIDANCE...AS LOWS WILL BE IN THE
40S...WITH MID TO UPPER 30S IN COLDER AREAS.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
DESPITE LINGERING CLOUDS AND WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS...WE LOOK FOR
CONDITIONS TO REMAIN ABOVE THE IFR THRESHOLD ALL DAY. WE EXPECT
SCT-BKN LAYERS OF CLOUDS IN THE 3000-5000 FEET RANGE. ANY WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS THAT MOVE ACROSS THE TERMINALS WILL HAVE LITTLE OR
NO IMPACT. WE WILL HAVE OCCASIONAL MVFR WITH OR WITHOUT SHOWERS.

A WEST TO NORTHWEST WIND WILL ENSUE AROUND 12KTS...GUSTING AT TIMES
TO NEAR 20KTS THROUGHOUT THE DAY.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT WITH A DECREASE IN THE WIND DOWN
AROUND THE 5KT RANGE.


OUTLOOK...
THU...VFR WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AT KALB AND KGFL.
FRI...VFR-MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
SAT-SUN...MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.-- End Changed Discussion --


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL REMAIN ANCHORED ACROSS
SOUTHEAST CANADA THROUGH THURSDAY. SEVERAL DISTURBANCES ROTATING
AROUND THIS LOW WILL KEEP UNSETTLED CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
REGION...ALONG WITH CHILLY TEMPERATURES. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST LATE FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY...BRINGING MORE RAIN TO THE REGION.

THE RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL FALL INTO THE 55-65 PERCENT RANGE THIS
AFTERNOON...THEN RISE TO 90-100 PERCENT TONIGHT. THE RH WILL THEN
FALL TO 50-65 PERCENT FOR THU AFTERNOON.

HAINES INDICES WILL REACH AROUND 2 TODAY...AND 2 TO 3 THURSDAY
AFTERNOON.

WINDS WILL BECOME WEST TO NORTHWEST...AND INCREASE TO 15-25 MPH
TODAY. WINDS WILL REMAIN FROM THE WEST TO NORTHWEST AT 5 TO 15 MPH
TONIGHT...WITH WEST WINDS PERSISTING THURSDAY AT 10-20 MPH.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
GENERALLY LIGHT RAINFALL IS EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY
EVENING...MAINLY ACROSS NORTHERN BASINS...WHERE AMOUNTS SHOULD
GENERALLY REMAIN BELOW ONE QUARTER OF AN INCH...AND LESS THAN ONE
TENTH OF AN INCH FURTHER SOUTH. THIS RAINFALL SHOULD HAVE LITTLE IF
ANY EFFECT ON STREAMFLOW.

MORE SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
SUNDAY...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAINFALL. THIS
COULD ALLOW FOR MORE SUBSTANTIAL STREAMFLOW INCREASES LATE SATURDAY
INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$


Saratoga County, NY - ROLLTIDE - 10-01-2009 10:42 AM

Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albany, NY

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000
FXUS61 KALY 011157
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
757 AM EDT THU OCT 1 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL REMAIN ANCHORED
ACROSS SOUTHEAST CANADA THROUGH TODAY KEEPING UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION...ALONG WITH CHILLY TEMPERATURES.
ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST LATE
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...BRINGING A WIDESPREAD RAINFALL TO THE
REGION. THE SYSTEM SHOULD EXIT SUNDAY...BRINGING A RETURN TO DRY
WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM CONTINUES TO AFFECT OUR REGION...ALONG WITH A
CONTINUED FEED OF MOISTURE AND CLOUD COVER OFF THE LAKES. THIS
WILL CONTINUE TODAY...AND FINALLY EXIT TONIGHT. BOUNDARY LAYER
FLOW WILL BE NORTHWEST TODAY...SHIFTING TO SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH BY
SUNRISE TOMORROW. THE SKY WILL BE CLOUDY FOR MOST OF THE REGION
TODAY...WITH PERHAPS A FEW BREAKS THIS AFTERNOON IN THE HUDSON
VALLEY...BUT BASED ON BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES AND MIXING
POTENTIAL...HIGH TEMPERATURES IN MOST AREAS WILL BE IN THE 40S TO
MID 50S. AREAS FROM POU TO NW CT SHOULD SEE MORE BREAKS IN THE
CLOUDS AND PUSH THE UPPER 50S. ISOLATED SHOWERS WEST OF THE HUDSON
VALLEY TODAY AND THIS EVENING...BUT LIKELY IN PARTS OF HERKIMER
COUNTY...CLOSEST TO LAKE ONTARIO.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
CLOUDS WILL BREAK UP LATE FRIDAY NIGHT TO SOME DEGREE...BUT THE
TIMING OF THE CLEARING WILL DETERMINE JUST HOW MUCH TEMPERATURES
CAN DROP TOWARD SUNRISE. SOURCES OF GUIDANCE SUGGEST CLEARING JUST
BEFORE SUNRISE IN MOST AREAS...NOT ALLOWING MUCH TIME FOR RAPID
TEMPERATURES FALLS. LOOKING UPSTREAM OUT TO THE WEST...ONCE AXIS
OF UPPER TROUGH EXITS...VERY LITTLE CLOUD COVER AHEAD OF
APPROACHING SYSTEM CURRENTLY IN THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. FOR
NOW...SUGGESTING SOME CLEARING BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND
SUNRISE...ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO FALL INTO THE UPPER 20S TO
LOWER 30S ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS...MID 30S TO
LOWER 40S ELSEWHERE. NO FROST OR FREEZE HEADLINES AS TEMPERATURES
LOOK TO BE JUST WARM ENOUGH TO PREVENT FROST AND FREEZE IN AREAS
WHERE THE GROWING SEASON HAS NOT ENDED YET. NEW GUIDANCE LATER
TODAY MAY SUGGEST COLDER...DEPENDING ON TIMING OF CLEARING...AND
HEADLINES MAY NEED TO BE REVISITED THEN.

CLOUDS WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE MORNING IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT
SYSTEM...THEN RAIN SPREADS ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
THERE IS A GOOD CONSENSUS FROM ALL SOURCES OF GUIDANCE FOR STRONG
ISENTROPIC LIFT...LOW LEVEL JET FORCING...STRONG WARM/MOISTURE
ADVECTION...SO A SOLID RAIN EVENT EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY. INCLUDED ISOLATED THUNDER AS SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY
HINTED IN GUIDANCE AS WELL.

THE QUESTION IS ABOUT THE TIMING OF THE EXIT OF THE PRECIPITATION.
THE MAIN UPPER LOW IS EXPECTED TO TRACK WELL NORTHWEST OF OUR
REGION...WHILE AN IMPULSE ROTATING AROUND THE PERIPHERY TRACKS
THROUGH IN ADVANCE OF SOME GRADUAL FLAT RIDGING BUILDING INTO THE
REGION. SO...SURFACE BOUNDARY TRACKS VERY SLOWLY EAST...WITH
LINGERING SHOWERS ALONG AND EAST OF THE HUDSON RIVER SATURDAY
AFTERNOON...MORE SCATTERED WEST OF THE HUDSON VALLEY. SOME BREAKS
IN THE CLOUDS POSSIBLE IN SOME AREAS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS MID AND
UPPER MOISTURE EXITS. AXIS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS GRADUALLY SHIFTS
EAST THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. CLOUD COVER WILL BE SLOW TO
EXIT...WITH CONTINUED LOW LEVEL AND BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW FROM THE
SOUTH. AGAIN...LATER SETS OF GUIDANCE AND KEEPING AN EYE ON
TRENDS IN DATA WILL HELP ZERO IN ON TIMING OF EXIT OF
PRECIPITATION AND CLOUDS THIS WEEKEND.

HIGHS FRIDAY IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S...WITH LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT IN
THE MID 40S MOUNTAINS TO MID/UPPER 50S IN WARMER SPOTS. HIGHS
SATURDAY IN THE 60S TO AROUND 70...WITH LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT IN THE
40S TO LOWER 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SUNDAY...MODELS DIVERGE ON TIMING OF FRONT MOVING TO OUR E...AS THE
00Z/01 GFS IS A BIT FASTER...WHILE THE GEM AND ECMWF LAG THE FRONT
ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION SUN MORNING...WITH THE GEM
EVEN HINTING AT A WAVE DEVELOPING AND RIPPLING NORTH ALONG THE
BOUNDARY. SHOULD THIS OCCUR...RAIN COULD LINGER WELL INTO SUNDAY
ACROSS AT LEAST THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE REGION. FOR NOW...HAVE
LEANED CLOSER TO THE MORE PROGRESSIVE AND OPTIMISTIC GFS...WITH
SLIGHT CHC TO LOW CHC POPS SUN MORNING...HIGHEST ACROSS EASTERN
AREAS. BY SUN AFTERNOON...MOST OF THE RAIN SHOULD HAVE MOVED WELL E
OF THE REGION...WITH AT LEAST SOME CLEARING. THERE COULD BE SOME
OROGRAPHICALLY ENHANCED SHOWERS ACROSS FAR NW AREAS...AND THUS HAVE
KEPT SLIGHT CHC POPS IN THESE REGIONS THROUGH SUN EVENING. AS FOR
TEMPS...ASSUMING SOME CLEARING OCCURS...INITIALLY RELATIVELY WARM
850 T`S OF +4 TO +6...AND POTENTIAL MIXING TO 825-850 MB SHOULD
SUPPORT MAXES OF 65-70 IN THE VALLEYS...AND UPPER 50S/LOWER 60S FOR
HIGHER ELEVATIONS. HOWEVER...COOLER MAXES ARE POSSIBLE SHOULD THE
CLOUDS AND RAIN LINGER LONGER.

SUN NT-MON NT...OTHER THAN SOME LINGERING OROGRAPHIC SHOWERS ACROSS
NORTHERN AREAS SUN EVENING...EXPECT THIS PERIOD TO BE GENERALLY RAIN
FREE. TEMPS SHOULD BE NEAR...OR A BIT ABOVE SEASONAL LEVELS DURING
THIS PERIOD...WITH MAXES ON MONDAY IN THE MID/UPPER 60S IN
VALLEYS...AND MID/UPPER 50S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS...WITH
OVERNIGHT MINS MON AM AND TUE AM GENERALLY IN THE LOWER/MID 40S IN
THE VALLEYS...AND MID/UPPER 30S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

TUE-WED NT...UNSETTLED CONDITIONS RETURN...AS MOST MODELS HINT AT A
RATHER STRONG BAROCLINIC ZONE DEVELOPING FROM THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES
INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. WILL INDICATE CHC POPS DURING THIS
TIME PERIOD FOR SHOWERS...ALTHOUGH DEPENDING ON THE ULTIMATE
EVOLUTION OF ANY STRONGER WAVE DEVELOPING ALONG THIS BOUNDARY...POPS
WOULD BE MUCH HIGHER/LOWER DEPENDING ON THE MOVEMENT OF THE
ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARIES. AS FOR TEMPS...HAVE GENERALLY
INDICATED MAXES A BIT BELOW SEASONAL LEVELS FOR TUE...WARMING TO
ABOVE BY WED. HOWEVER...AGAIN...THIS ENTIRELY WILL DEPEND ON THE
ULTIMATE DEVELOPMENT AND TRACK OF ANY STRONGER WAVE WITHIN THE
AFOREMENTIONED BAROCLINIC ZONE...WITH ANY POSSIBLE WARM SECTOR
ALLOWING FOR BRIEFLY MUCH WARMER TEMPS THAN CURRENTLY INDICATED.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TODAY...ALTHOUGH BRIEF
AND LOCALIZED REDUCTIONS IN VSBY/CIGS ARE POSSIBLE TO MVFR OR HIGH
END IFR WITHIN SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS AT KGFL AND KALB.

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH PATCHY GROUND
FOG DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE AT KGFL TOWARD FRI MORNING...SHOULD
HIGHER LEVEL CLOUDS CLEAR OUT PRIOR TO DAYBREAK.

WINDS WILL REMAIN GENERALLY FROM THE WEST AT 5-10 KT...WITH SOME
GUSTS UP TO 15-20 KT POSSIBLE...ESP AT KALB DUE TO CHANNELING EFFECT
OF WINDS DOWN MOHAWK RIVER VALLEY. WINDS WILL THEN BECOME
LIGHT/VARIABLE JUST AFTER SUNSET...BECOMING SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST AT 5
KT OR LESS BY DAYBREAK FRIDAY.

OUTLOOK...
FRI...VFR LOWERING TO MVFR WITH A CHANCES FOR RAIN INCREASING
DURING THE AFTERNOON.
FRI NIGHT-SAT...MVFR-IFR WITH RAIN LIKELY.
SAT NIGHT-SUN...VFR-MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
SUN NIGHT-MON...VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN.-- End Changed Discussion --


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL REMAIN ANCHORED
ACROSS SOUTHEAST CANADA THROUGH TODAY KEEPING UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION...ALONG WITH CHILLY TEMPERATURES.
ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST LATE
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...BRINGING A WIDESPREAD RAINFALL TO THE
REGION. THE SYSTEM SHOULD EXIT SUNDAY...BRINGING A RETURN TO DRY
WEATHER.

THE RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL FALL TO 55-75 PERCENT FOR THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT 40-50 PERCENT IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND
LITCHFIELD HILLS. RH VALUES WILL RISE AGAIN TO NEAR 100 PERCENT
TONIGHT...THEN FALL TO 60 TO 70 PERCENT BY MIDDAY FRIDAY...RISING
AGAIN TO NEAR 100 PERCENT LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS RAIN MOVES INTO
THE AREA.

WINDS WILL REMAIN FROM THE WEST TO NORTHWEST BETWEEN 10 AND 20
MPH THIS AFTERNOON...DIMINISHING TO LIGHT AND SHIFTING TO THE
SOUTH TONIGHT. THEN...SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS AT 5 TO 15 MPH WILL
PREVAIL FRIDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
GENERALLY SCATTERED LIGHT RAINFALL IS EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY
EVENING...MAINLY ACROSS NORTHERN BASINS...WHERE AMOUNTS SHOULD
GENERALLY REMAIN BELOW ONE QUARTER OF AN INCH...AND LESS THAN ONE
TENTH OF AN INCH FURTHER SOUTH. THIS RAINFALL SHOULD HAVE LITTLE
IF ANY EFFECT ON STREAMFLOW.

MORE SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
SUNDAY...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A HALF INCH TO INCH OF
RAINFALL...WITH LOCAL AMOUNTS BETWEEN 1 AND 2 INCHES IN THE
CATSKILLS AND ADIRONDACKS. THIS COULD ALLOW FOR MORE SUBSTANTIAL
STREAMFLOW INCREASES LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NAS
NEAR TERM...NAS
SHORT TERM...NAS
LONG TERM...KL
AVIATION...KL
FIRE WEATHER...NAS
HYDROLOGY...KL/NAS


Saratoga County, NY - ROLLTIDE - 10-02-2009 01:00 PM

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