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Weekend Fun Day 3 - Printable Version

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Weekend Fun Day 3 - Jason234 - 01-20-2005 09:28 PM

I'm back, don't worry-not that you did...the GFS is out to lunch let me say why. Some area's in the west recieved 6 feet of snow, and that doesn't go anywhere...it will encourage the ridge to build like crazy in southern cali' and Nevada....the high (in the east) will not stick around to the extent the GFS has because just like a see-saw one side always goes up and the other goes down. For now I have to believe it, but the storm will be riding on the arctic boundary and where every that may end up will determine the heaviest of snows, which will be around the 540 line. Very impressive 18z run of the ETA, with LI recieving like 15 inches of snow...I'm leaning toward that because I think the dynamics in the west coast will lead to my soulution. Nevertheless we will start picking up snow with those streamers in the warm advection pattern (like the last storm)...once you get that ocean effect going it's hard to stop. And another thing, the duration of the storm will be rather short, with a more progressvie solution by most of the models, but sometime Sat night we could be seeing snow rates 2 inches plus. Rant off-no still got more...ETA has been dead on this year, just remember that the GFS has been forecasting warm so far for this winter and it has busted every time, and now it's forecasting cold all of a sudden. I think the NAO is making it change it's mind but as you can clearly read I am not a "GFS hugger."

Weekend Fun Day 3 - LI Phil - 01-21-2005 11:11 AM

A rapidly developing area of low pressure will slide from the Dakotas towards Iowa and northern Illinois during the course of the day spreading snow and a wintry mix across the northern Plains and Upper Midwest today. Look for heavy snow from the eastern Dakotas and Minnesota to Lower Michigan and the northern Ohio Valley. Some snow and freezing rain and sleet will spread from Iowa to Illinois. Snow accumulations will be over 6 inches at many locations. Gusty northerly winds on the back side of this storm will really whip the snow around creating drifts and very low visibilities. Snow will move into the Twin Cities by early this afternoon and Chicago by the late evening hours. Both cities should see more than a half a foot of snow. However, a closer look at Chicago shows that a strong north-northeasterly wind will develop off of Lake Michigan and may produce more snow for the city during the day on Saturday even after the bulk of the winter storm has passed.

During Saturday, this same low pressure system will sweep from out of the Mid-Mississippi Valley during the morning hours and will make a run towards the Virginias by the early evening hours. It is at this same time that the original low will begin to dampen out and a new coastal low will begin to take shape off of the Mid-Atlantic coast. This new coastal low will then quickly intensify during the morning hours of very early Sunday while it pushes away from the coast. Heavy snow will spread across much of extreme southern New York State, Pennsylvania, Maryland, northern Virginia, and New Jersey. Lesser amounts will fall to the north. Just a word of caution; when the snow does arrive, snowfall rates will be quite fast with one to two inches of snow per hour at times. This will likely reduce visibilities and cause treacherous travel conditions. To the south, precipitation will change to sleet and freezing rain across the western and northern portions of Virginia, the northern Chesapeake Bay area and into the Del-Mar-Va. By late Saturday, the snow will continue to advance eastward across southern New England. Snow will end or taper off to flurries on Sunday. Snowfall from this storm should generally be in the six to ten inch range in the main band with locally heavier amounts. As the storm departs prepare for continued very cold temperatures and a biting wind out of the north.

Weekend Fun Day 3 - LI Phil - 01-21-2005 02:12 PM

15+" for Long Island...huge snows elsewhere.

[Image: 1stc.jpg]

Weekend Fun Day 3 - ROLLTIDE - 01-21-2005 02:36 PM

You better post pics !!

Weekend Fun Day 3 - LI Phil - 01-21-2005 02:45 PM

If I can get out the door...

Weekend Fun Day 3 - LI Phil - 01-22-2005 12:35 PM

.[Image: lastc.gif]

Weekend Fun Day 3 - LI Phil - 01-22-2005 12:58 PM

Just took a couple photos of the beginning of the blizzard...will post a few in a couple hours...this is gonna be one for the ages. Jason234 will also be a shutterbug, so anyone who really pines for snow, I don't want it...but what are you gonna do? BTW, latest estimates say we could be getting 2 FEET of the white stuff...that's like Cass' snow!