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Concern for significant snow - Jason234 - 01-10-2005 08:24 PM

i have some concern with a wave from this arctic front bringing some snowfall to the tri-state region fri. night. models have a very and i mean very hard time finding this kinks. also i don't know why anyone isn't banging the drum for some mobile snow, all the precursors are lining up.....rollie? a second high will swing around the inverted trof and reinforce the baroclinic zone, aiding in the development of a wave which with a shortwave diving down from the great lakes could promise some snow...but again much too far away-just stating the concerns. jan 15 in retrospect looked like a great day for the pattern change at least for my area...i'll pat myself on the back for that one. well let's sum it up...the east coast will be sandwiched between the arctic front well off shore and a big omega high in the center part of the country. this is the type of pattern that lead up to the FEBUARY 2003 PRESIDENTS DAY BLIZZARD my favorite blizzard of ALLLLL TIME. let's see if it happens again, it sure would put a simle on my face after what i just went through (not weather wise).

Concern for significant snow - LI Phil - 01-11-2005 04:56 PM

My feeling about the frontal passage on Friday is that it will not be the arctic front. In other words I expect temperatures to drop off significantly on Friday but the real polar air will along the arctic front will follow 1-2 days later. So the thermal contrast zone will hug the coast into Saturday and Sunday. And there are some indications that another shortwave will drop southward on the backside of the trough. If there is not too much confluence left over in the NE from front #1 we could get some sharpening of the trough (west of us) and a wave to develop along the front. If nothing else, because I do think there will be 2 distinctive "pushes" of cold air, I do think #2 will come in with at least snow showers. The 12z ETA shows this. Although I think its first front is just too weak. But the idea seems to be on the right track. Look for the first front to fall somewhere in between what the GFS and ETA say temperature wise. And look for a wave to develop in response to the energy dropping down the back side of the trough this weekend. What impact that will have on our weather...I don't know. Since it merely a concept right now it is just something to keep out eyes on. One note...the models have shown visions of this in one form or another for the past few days. They forecast and then take back offshore development Sunday/Monday. But with the first front less aggressive that keeps the storm track closer to the coast. How close? Who knows?

Concern for significant snow - Jason234 - 01-11-2005 06:06 PM

i can say that we won't be getting any of these "no show" type storms. I don't like this pattern at all...but it that's the way the dice rolls-then so be it. I'm not sure what you mean by a "Weak front", the front will have temps in the 60s ahead of it and temps in the teens behind...it's that's not strong then i don't know what is. Right now it's the storm around cali', it will eventually phase with a northern branch storm and you know the rest. But i think there is great potential for significant snowfall very soon, something out of the gulf of mexico.