Deep South Snow Storm 1/16/08 - Printable Version +- Hardcore Weather (http://hardcoreweather.com) +-- Forum: Weather (/forum-4.html) +--- Forum: Winter Weather (/forum-14.html) +--- Thread: Deep South Snow Storm 1/16/08 (/thread-12751.html)

Deep South Snow Storm 1/16/08 - ROLLTIDE - 01-16-2008 03:39 PM MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0069 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1223 PM CST WED JAN 16 2008 AREAS AFFECTED...NRN GA CONCERNING...WINTER MIXED PRECIPITATION VALID 161823Z - 162230Z A 2-3 HR PERIOD OF SNOW SHOULD DEVELOP OVER NRN GA TOWARDS 00Z AS AN EXPANSIVE SWATH OF PRECIPITATION LIFTS SLOWLY NWD FROM THE ERN GULF COASTAL PLAINS. MODERATE SNOWFALL RATES /AROUND 0.5 IN PER HR/ APPEAR LIKELY FROM THE I-20 CORRIDOR NWD GIVEN INITIAL PRESENCE OF COLD/DRY AIR MASS IN LOW-LEVELS. LOW-LEVEL WARM THETA-E ADVECTION DOWNSTREAM OF LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY SHORT WAVE TROUGH IN COMBINATION WITH FAVORABLE DIVERGENCE S/SW OF OH RIVER VALLEY/MID-ATLANTIC UPPER-LEVEL JET...WILL PROMOTE PRECIPITATION SPREADING N/NEWD FROM THE GULF COASTAL PLAINS INTO THE SRN APPALACHIANS. LATEST SUBJECTIVE SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATES CONTINUED RIDGING OVER NRN GA FROM HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE COASTAL CAROLINAS. MODEST ELY SURFACE WINDS ALONG WITH OVERCAST SKIES/VIRGA HAVE SLOWED DIURNAL WARMING WITH SURFACE TEMPERATURES GENERALLY HOLDING IN THE UPPER 30S. BOTH 12Z NAM/09Z NAMKF FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE AROUND 3 TO 8 DEG F TOO HIGH WITH BOTH TEMPERATURES/DEW POINTS COMPARED TO 18Z SURFACE OBS. HOWEVER...THE 12Z GFS APPEARS TO MORE CLOSELY RESEMBLE THE LOW-LEVEL THERMODYNAMIC PROFILE WHEN COMPARED TO ACARS/SURFACE OBS WITH WET-BULB TEMPERATURES BELOW FREEZING ATTM. DESPITE STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL WAA...INCREASING UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION/SATURATION SHOULD LEAD TO DEEP ISOTHERMAL PROFILES BY 17/00Z...AS DEPICTED BY THE GFS. ALTHOUGH PTYPE ALGORITHMS PREDOMINATELY SUGGEST RAIN...INITIAL LIGHT RAIN/SLEET MIX SHOULD LARGELY TRANSITION TO NEARLY ALL SNOW AS FULL SATURATION OCCURS. WITH TIME THIS EVENING...THE MAGNITUDE OF WAA SHOULD RESULT IN A TRANSITION BACK TO RAIN WITH SNOW/FREEZING RAIN RELEGATED TO THE FAR NRN GA MTNS.