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Subtropical Storm Alberto
05-27-2018, 09:43 AM
Post: #41
RE: Subtropical Storm Alberto
11AM disco
000
WTNT41 KNHC 271438
TCDAT1

Subtropical Storm Alberto Discussion Number 9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL012018
1100 AM EDT Sun May 27 2018

The satellite and radar presentation of Alberto has improved
markedly over the past 12 hours or so. Deep convection has
increased and become organized in a primary band that wraps around
the western and northwestern portions of the storm and the
circulation has also become much better defined than 24 hours ago.
An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft has recently indicated
that the pressure has fallen to 994 mb. The aircraft has also
reported peak flight-level winds of 49 kt and believable SFMR winds
of around 40 kt, however, the aircraft has not yet sampled the
northwestern portion of the circulation where the deepest convection
is located. Assuming that there are slightly higher winds in that
area, the initial intensity has been increased to 45 kt.

With deep convection closer to the center and a slightly smaller
radius of maximum winds, it appears that Alberto is beginning its
transition to a tropical cyclone. The reconnaissance aircraft data
also indicate that a shallow warm core is present. It is likely
that Alberto will make the transition to tropical storm later today
or tonight. As this transition occurs, some additional
strengthening is forecast while Alberto moves over marginally warm
sea surface temperatures and the shear relaxes. However, dry mid-
level air wrapping around the eastern portion of the circulation
could slow the intensification process before Alberto reaches the
coast.

The initial motion estimate of 005/12 is again highly uncertain due
to the center re-formations that have occurred over the past 12 to
24 hours. The cyclone should move generally northward today, then
turn northwestward around the northeastern side of a cutoff low over
the central Gulf of Mexico. The timing and location of landfall of
the center will be dependent on when the northwestward turn occurs.
The latest ECMWF forecast moves Alberto faster northward before it
makes the turn and therefore brings the center onshore much sooner
and farther eastward than the UKMET and GFS. The NHC forecast is
near the model consensus, and is somewhat faster than the previous
advisory. Users should remember not to focus on the exact timing
and location of landfall since wind and rain will continue to spread
northward over the northeastern Gulf Coast well ahead of the center.

KEY MESSAGES:

1. Alberto is expected to produce heavy rainfall with a risk of
flooding and flash flooding over western Cuba, the Florida Keys, and
south Florida today. The risk for heavy rainfall and flooding will
then spread over much of the southeast U.S. tonight and Monday.

2. Hazardous storm surge is possible along portions of the eastern
Gulf Coast beginning later today, including areas well east of the
track of Alberto's center. Residents in the storm surge watch area
are encouraged to follow any guidance given by their local
government officials.

3. Tropical storm conditions are likely within the tropical storm
warning area along the Florida west coast today and within the
warning area along the northern Gulf Coast by tonight.

4. Dangerous surf and rip current conditions will continue to
affect portions of the eastern and northern Gulf Coast through
Monday.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 27/1500Z 27.1N 84.4W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 28/0000Z 28.7N 84.9W 50 KT 60 MPH...TROPICAL STORM
24H 28/1200Z 30.3N 85.9W 50 KT 60 MPH...INLAND
36H 29/0000Z 31.6N 86.4W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND
48H 29/1200Z 33.6N 86.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND
72H 30/1200Z 38.3N 87.2W 20 KT 25 MPH...INLAND
96H 31/1200Z 43.3N 84.7W 15 KT 15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 01/1200Z 46.5N 79.5W 15 KT 15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Brown

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05-27-2018, 09:44 AM
Post: #42
RE: Subtropical Storm Alberto
[Image: 144213_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind.png]

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05-27-2018, 11:30 AM
Post: #43
RE: Subtropical Storm Alberto
(05-27-2018 07:47 AM)ROLLTIDE Wrote:  out of the cone now and still under a tropical storm warning?
It's Sunday on a holiday weekend. In the past, this would not have mattered, but things have changed in the past few years I think... budget cuts, etc.

Alberto's been a good live drill for the rest of the season.

Scientia Est Potentia
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05-27-2018, 03:41 PM
Post: #44
RE: Subtropical Storm Alberto
4pm
Quote: 00
WTNT41 KNHC 272039
TCDAT1

Subtropical Storm Alberto Discussion Number 10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL012018
400 PM CDT Sun May 27 2018

After the increase in organization overnight and this morning, dry
mid-level air has wrapped about three-quarters of the way around
the circulation, resulting in an overall decrease in deep
convection in all but the southeastern portion of the circulation.
Earlier ASCAT and reconnaissance aircraft data supported an initial
wind speed of 45 kt, and that intensity will be maintained for this
advisory. Another reconnaissance aircraft is scheduled to
investigate the system this evening.

The main question regarding the future intensity of Alberto is
whether or not the dry air will continue to be ingested near the
center of the cyclone, or whether deep convection is able to
regenerate overnight while the system is over marginally warm
SSTs and within a low shear environment. It is assumed that some
convection will redevelop to help maintain Alberto's intensity, but
that the environment will not be favorable enough to allow for
significant strengthening. As a result, little change in intensity
is forecast before Alberto reaches the northern Gulf Coast on
Monday.

Alberto appears to have turned north-northwestward with an initial
motion estimate of 345/12 kt. The cyclone should move northwestward
to north-northwestward tonight before turning back northward on
Monday as it becomes vertically aligned with the upper-level low.
After that time, the system should continue moving northward between
the western Atlantic ridge and a mid-upper level trough that
approaches the central U.S. around mid-week. The dynamical models
are in much better agreement on Alberto's track during the next 2 to
3 days, and the NHC track has been been adjusted accordingly. The
new track is slightly west of and slower than the previous track
during the first 24 to 36 hours.

KEY MESSAGES:

1. The risk of flooding and flash flooding over western Cuba, the
Florida Keys, and south Florida will continue through Monday. Heavy
rain and the risk of flooding will begin across the Florida
Panhandle tonight, then spread northward from the Florida Panhandle
into much of Alabama, western Georgia, and Tennessee through
Tuesday.

2. A hazardous storm surge is possible along portions of the
eastern Gulf Coast tonight and tomorrow, including areas well east
of the track of Alberto's center. Residents in the storm surge
watch area are encouraged to follow guidance given by their local
government officials.

3. Tropical storm conditions are likely within portions of the
tropical storm warning area tonight and tomorrow.

4. Dangerous surf and rip current conditions will continue to
affect portions of the eastern and northern Gulf Coast through
Monday.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 27/2100Z 28.0N 85.2W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 28/0600Z 29.1N 85.7W 45 KT 50 MPH...TROPICAL STORM
24H 28/1800Z 30.4N 86.2W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND
36H 29/0600Z 32.2N 86.6W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
48H 29/1800Z 34.7N 87.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND
72H 30/1800Z 39.7N 86.9W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 31/1800Z 45.1N 83.1W 15 KT 15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 01/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Brown

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05-27-2018, 10:42 PM
Post: #45
RE: Subtropical Storm Alberto
Why was this crap ever given a name ?

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05-28-2018, 05:48 AM
Post: #46
RE: Subtropical Storm Alberto
4AM
Quote: Subtropical Storm Alberto Advisory Number 13
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL012018
400 AM CDT Mon May 28 2018

...ALBERTO HOLDING 65-MPH WINDS...
...EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL LATER TODAY...


SUMMARY OF 400 AM CDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...28.6N 86.2W
ABOUT 125 MI...200 KM S OF DESTIN FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...990 MB...29.24 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Storm Surge Watch south of Suwannee River has been discontinued.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* Suwannee River to Navarre Florida

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Suwannee River to the Mississippi/Alabama border

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline, in the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at
risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge
Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.

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05-28-2018, 05:49 AM
Post: #47
RE: Subtropical Storm Alberto
4AM

Quote: ubtropical Storm Alberto Discussion Number 13
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL012018
400 AM CDT Mon May 28 2018

Alberto is holding its strength this morning. The Air Force
Hurricane Hunters investigated the cyclone a few hours ago and found
winds to the north of the center that still support an intensity of
about 55 kt. The aircraft data and a NOAA buoy near the center also
indicate that the minimum pressure has dropped a little more to 990
mb. Deep convection remains patchy, however, due to pronounced dry
slots, but Doppler radar images do show some convective bands moving
onshore over the Florida Panhandle.

Given the short period of time before Alberto makes landfall,
its overall ragged appearance, and proximity to dry air, little
change in strength is expected before the subtropical storm reaches
the coast this afternoon. Once Alberto is inland, land interaction
should cause steady weakening to a subtropical depression tonight or
early Tuesday and to a remnant low by Tuesday afternoon. The global
models show the low being absorbed by a frontal system over the
Great Lakes region by day 5. The NHC intensity forecast is largely
an update of the previous one, and is in line with the majority of
the guidance.

The center of Alberto has wobbled to the left and slowed down
significantly during the past 6 hours, but a longer-term motion is
northwestward, or 315 degrees, at 6 kt. A north-northwestward to
northward motion along the western periphery of a mid-level ridge is
expected during the next few days taking Alberto, or its remnants,
over the Florida Panhandle and then well inland over the Tennessee
and Ohio Valleys. A turn to the northeast is predicted before
Alberto's remnants are absorbed by the above-mentioned frontal
system. The models are in fairly good agreement, and only small
changes were made to the previous NHC track prediction.

KEY MESSAGES:

1. Heavy rainfall will lead to a significant risk of flash flooding
across the Florida Panhandle, much of Alabama, and western Georgia
through tonight, spreading northward into northern Georgia, the
western Carolinas, and Tennessee on Tuesday. A risk of flooding and
flash flooding will continue over western Cuba, the Florida Keys,
and southern Florida today.

2. Hazardous storm surge is possible along portions of the eastern
Gulf Coast today, including areas well east of the track of
Alberto's center. Residents in the storm surge watch area are
encouraged to follow guidance given by their local government
officials.

3. Tropical storm conditions are likely within portions of the
tropical storm warning area today.

4. Dangerous surf and rip current conditions will continue to
affect portions of the eastern and northern Gulf Coast through
Tuesday.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 28/0900Z 28.6N 86.2W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 28/1800Z 30.1N 86.6W 55 KT 65 MPH
24H 29/0600Z 32.1N 86.9W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND
36H 29/1800Z 34.6N 87.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 30/0600Z 37.4N 87.6W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 31/0600Z 43.0N 86.3W 15 KT 15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 01/0600Z 48.0N 81.0W 15 KT 15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 02/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

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05-28-2018, 06:41 AM
Post: #48
RE: Subtropical Storm Alberto
jubilee reported on the eastern shore Smile

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05-28-2018, 06:55 AM
Post: #49
RE: Subtropical Storm Alberto
SUMMARY OF 700 AM CDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...29.0N 86.0W
ABOUT 100 MI...165 KM SSE OF DESTIN FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...991 MB...29.26 INCHES

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05-28-2018, 06:56 AM
Post: #50
RE: Subtropical Storm Alberto
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
Tornado Warning
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
731 AM EDT MON MAY 28 2018

The National Weather Service in Tallahassee has issued a

* Tornado Warning for...
Southwestern Gadsden County in Big Bend of Florida...
Northeastern Liberty County in Big Bend of Florida...

* Until 800 AM EDT.

* At 730 AM EDT, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado
was located 11 miles south of Greensboro, or 14 miles southwest of
Quincy, moving north at 25 mph.

HAZARD...Tornado.

SOURCE...Radar indicated rotation.

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