4AM

Quote: TROPICAL STORM COLIN DISCUSSION NUMBER 4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032016
400 AM CDT MON JUN 06 2016

Colin remains poorly organized this morning. Surface observations
and data from NOAA and Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft
suggest that at least two small-scale circulation centers are
present, one near an intense burst of convection around 24.5N 85.5W
and the other well to the west-northwest near 25.5N 89W. The low
confidence initial position splits the difference between these two
features. The Air Force aircraft reported 850-mb flight-level
winds of 71 kt and estimated 60 kt surface winds on the SFMR
instrument. However, these winds were measured in the
aforementioned convection, and it is unclear how representative they
are. There is sufficient data to justify increasing the initial
intensity to 45 kt.

The cyclone appears to be moving faster, with the initial motion
now 015/12. The track forecast reasoning again has not changed from
the previous advisory. Over the next day or so, Colin should move
north-northeastward to northeastward in the flow between a
deep-layer trough over the western and northern Gulf of Mexico and a
ridge over the subtropical western Atlantic. After that time, the
cyclone will become embedded in strong southwesterly flow associated
with a large baroclinic low over the eastern United States. The
track guidance has nudged northward since the previous advisory, and
the new forecast track, which lies near the consensus models, is
also nudged northward.

The poor organization and the presence of moderate vertical wind
shear suggest that significant strengthening is unlikely before
Colin makes landfall in Florida in less than 24 hours. The global
models forecast winds of near 50 kt as Colin moves over the Atlantic
and begins extratropical transition, and the latter part of the
intensity forecast is based on this guidance. The model guidance
forecasts that extratropical transition should be complete by about
72 hours.

It is important to emphasize that one should not focus on the exact
forecast track of this system. Strong winds, heavy rains and
coastal flooding are likely to occur well to the east of the center.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 06/0900Z 25.2N 87.4W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 06/1800Z 27.6N 85.8W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 07/0600Z 30.7N 81.9W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND
36H 07/1800Z 33.8N 76.2W 50 KT 60 MPH...OVER WATER
48H 08/0600Z 37.6N 67.8W 50 KT 60 MPH
72H 09/0600Z 45.0N 50.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 10/0600Z 50.0N 36.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 11/0600Z 54.0N 29.9W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Beven

If anybody needs help logging in feel free to email me @ Gmail @hardcoreweather

10AM

Quote: TROPICAL STORM COLIN DISCUSSION NUMBER 5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032016
1000 AM CDT MON JUN 06 2016

The satellite presentation of Colin does not resemble that of a
classical tropical cyclone, with the thunderstorm activity and
strong winds well to the east of the center. Satellite, buoy, and
the earlier aircraft data indicate that the center, such as it is,
is within a large area of light and variable winds. In fact, several
small swirls are seen rotating within a larger cyclonic gyre. The
initial wind speed is maintained at 45 kt, based on the overnight
aircraft observations. The next reconnaissance aircraft will be in
the system around 18z.

The strong southwesterly shear and very poor organization of the
system suggest that significant strengthening is not likely before
Colin reaches the coast of Florida later today. The global models
unanimously show some deepening when the cyclone moves near the
coast of the southeastern United States, likely due to
interaction with a mid- to upper-level trough over the eastern
United States. Colin is forecast to complete extratropical
transition in about 48 hours.

The somewhat uncertain initial motion estimate is 010/14 kt. Colin
is expected to accelerate northeastward later today. On Tuesday,
Colin is expected to move northeastward at an even faster forward
speed as it becomes embedded in strong southwesterly flow ahead of
a large deep-layer trough over the northeastern United States. The
NHC track forecast has been nudged slightly northward from the
previous advisory to be closer to the middle of the tightly
clustered track guidance.

Due to the displacement of the strong winds and heavy rainfall from
the center of Colin, it is important to not focus on the exact
forecast track, or on the time or location of landfall. Heavy
rainfall, strong winds, and coastal flooding will begin affecting
portions of the Florida Peninsula this afternoon well in advance of
the center's nearing the coast.

It should be noted that Colin could lose its status as a tropical
cyclone while impacts are still occurring along the coast. In this
case, NHC would anticipate continuing advisories and warnings on
the post-tropical cyclone.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 06/1500Z 27.0N 87.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 07/0000Z 29.6N 84.6W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 07/1200Z 32.8N 79.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 08/0000Z 36.3N 72.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 08/1200Z 40.2N 62.1W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 09/1200Z 45.5N 43.9W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 10/1200Z 50.0N 33.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 11/1200Z 55.0N 27.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Brown

The NHC needs to not name storms till they are at least 60mph + Thoughts?

(06-06-2016 10:17 AM)ROLLTIDE Wrote:  The NHC needs to not name storms till they are at least 60mph + Thoughts?

Agreed, they need to do something. They are over classifying too much, just like Hillary's e-mails. The need not name storm till they are storms...

I can't believe that chasers are wasting gas chasing this thing. Give me a real Tropical Storm and I might go after it

Brandon is live

http://wxchasing.com/live-streaming/

(06-06-2016 11:22 AM)ROLLTIDE Wrote:  I can't believe that chasers are wasting gas chasing this thing. Give me a real Tropical Storm and I might go after it

Agreed, move along people, nothing here to see. Although I do need the rain. Need to push a little more east of north.

Ahhhh.... folks get all excited with the first storms of the season. Can't say I blame 'em.

What I find noteworthy about Colin is that he's waking up gulf coast people, which is a good thing. As storms go, Colin isn't much and hopefully will be moving too quickly to cause too much in the way of flooding in Florida. I hope he veers off into the Atlantic sooner rather than later - the folks along the east coast where Bonnie wore out her welcome would appreciate that, I feel sure.

5pm

Quote: WTNT43 KNHC 062048
TCDAT3

TROPICAL STORM COLIN DISCUSSION NUMBER 6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032016
400 PM CDT MON JUN 06 2016

Colin does not look much like a tropical cyclone in satellite
imagery this afternoon. The center remains well removed from the
showers and thunderstorms, and the reconnaissance aircraft data has
found the strongest winds about 200 n mi southeast of the center.
The highest flight level winds measured by the aircraft have been
63 kt with SFMR surface winds of 40 kt. Since the plane did not
fully sample the convective band, the initial intensity is kept at
45 kt. The global models continue to significantly deepen the
cyclone during the next 24 to 48 hours, which is likely due to the
interaction of the system with a mid- to upper-level trough that is
currently moving southeastward over the Midwest. The intensity
forecast calls for an increase in wind speed during the next 24
to 36 hours, then gradual weakening as an extratropical cyclone
after day 2.

Colin's initial motion is north-northeastward, or 030/20 kt.
The cyclone is forecast to accelerate northeastward as it moves
along the coast of the southeastern United States later tonight
and Tuesday. A continued rapid northeastward motion is expected as
the cyclone moves over the North Atlantic within strong
southwesterly flow ahead of the aforementioned trough. The
track guidance has changed little during first 24 to 36 h, but
has shifted northwestward after that time. The NHC forecast has
been adjusted accordingly, and is closest to the 12z ECMWF.

Due to the displacement of the strong winds and heavy rainfall from
the center of Colin, it is important to not focus on the exact
forecast track, or on the time or location of landfall. Heavy
rainfall, strong winds, and coastal flooding are already affecting
much of Florida and portions of the southeast United States.

It should be noted that Colin could lose its status as a tropical
cyclone while impacts are still occurring along the coast. In this
case, NHC will continue to issue advisories and warnings on
the post-tropical cyclone.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 06/2100Z 28.8N 85.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 07/0600Z 31.7N 81.8W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND
24H 07/1800Z 35.2N 75.0W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
36H 08/0600Z 39.4N 66.3W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
48H 08/1800Z 43.0N 58.0W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 09/1800Z 48.5N 43.5W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 10/1800Z 53.0N 32.5W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 11/1800Z 56.5N 28.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$