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HURRICANE JOAQUIN
10-02-2015, 06:30 AM
Post: #71
RE: HURRICANE JOAQUIN
[Image: storm_11]

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10-02-2015, 06:30 AM
Post: #72
RE: HURRICANE JOAQUIN
hype train = derailed

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10-02-2015, 07:01 AM
Post: #73
RE: HURRICANE JOAQUIN
(10-02-2015 06:30 AM)ROLLTIDE Wrote:  hype train = derailed

Since it won't hit the mainland, the media will skulk away.

Ike was a slow moving storm, but nothing like this one. I can only imagine what the inhabitants of those islands are dealing with.
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10-02-2015, 07:15 AM
Post: #74
RE: HURRICANE JOAQUIN



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10-02-2015, 08:08 AM
Post: #75
RE: HURRICANE JOAQUIN
Continuing a long streak of this no less...
(10-02-2015 06:30 AM)ROLLTIDE Wrote:  hype train = derailed
Is it secondary 'nado season time yet? Tongue

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10-02-2015, 08:17 AM
Post: #76
RE: HURRICANE JOAQUIN
(10-02-2015 08:08 AM)Alex Wrote:  Continuing a long streak of this no less...
(10-02-2015 06:30 AM)ROLLTIDE Wrote:  hype train = derailed
Is it secondary 'nado season time yet? Tongue
Couple of more weeks and that should start and hopefully some deep south snow events after that Tongue I will be live streaming them all

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10-02-2015, 10:56 AM
Post: #77
RE: HURRICANE JOAQUIN
10AM

Quote: HURRICANE JOAQUIN DISCUSSION NUMBER 19
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112015
1100 AM EDT FRI OCT 02 2015

An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft has reported 700-mb
flight-level winds of 124 kt in the southeastern eyewall, along
with an eyewall dropsonde that supports surface winds of 110-115
kt. Based on these data, the intensity remains 115 kt. The latest
central pressure indicated by the aircraft data is 939 mb. While
the hurricane continues to produce cloud tops of -80C in the
eyewall, the eye is ragged and poorly defined in satellite imagery.

Joaquin has turned northward during the past few hours and the
initial motion is now 360/3. Water vapor imagery shows a mid- to
upper-level ridge to the north and northeast of the hurricane,
while a deep-layer trough and associated surface front are located
over the southeastern United States. This system is forecast to
move slowly eastward with a non-tropical low forming along the
front during the next couple of days. These developments should
steer Joaquin northward to northeastward during the next 12 hours
or so, followed by a faster motion toward the northeast. The GFS,
UKMET, and ECMWF are now in better agreement that Joaquin will move
generally northeastward through 48 hours, followed by a more
northward turn between 48 and 72 hours. This is then followed
by movement into the westerlies and acceleration toward the east-
northeast after 72 hours. The new forecast track is adjusted to
the east of the previous track after 24 hours, and it lies between
the previous track and the model consensus. Some additional
eastward adjustments to the track may occur on the next advisory
based on the 1200 UTC model runs.

Joaquin is forecast to remain in an environment of light vertical
wind shear for another 24 hours or so, and during this time some
fluctuations in intensity are possible due to eyewall replacement
cycles. After 24 hours, the shear is forecast to increase, which
should start a steady weakening. Extratropical transition is
expected to begin after 96 hours, but the dynamical models suggest
it may not be complete before 120 hours. Overall, the new
intensity forecast is an update of the previous advisory and lies
near the upper edge of the intensity guidance.


KEY MESSAGES:

1. Hurricane conditions over portions of the Bahamas are likely to
continue into this evening.

2. Swells from a hurricane moving even far offshore of the U.S.
east coast can still cause life-threatening surf and rip-current
conditions. Please see products from your local National Weather
Service forecast office. For information on the heavy rains
occurring along the U.S. Atlantic states that are mostly unrelated
to Hurricane Joaquin, please see products from the NWS Weather
Prediction Center and your local forecast office.

3. A Tropical Storm or Hurricane Watch could be required for
Bermuda this afternoon.




FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 02/1500Z 23.5N 74.8W 115 KT 130 MPH
12H 03/0000Z 24.4N 74.4W 115 KT 130 MPH
24H 03/1200Z 26.1N 73.0W 115 KT 130 MPH
36H 04/0000Z 28.2N 71.2W 105 KT 120 MPH
48H 04/1200Z 30.6N 69.6W 95 KT 110 MPH
72H 05/1200Z 35.5N 67.5W 80 KT 90 MPH
96H 06/1200Z 39.5N 63.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
120H 07/1200Z 43.5N 49.0W 55 KT 65 MPH

$$
Forecaster Beven

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10-02-2015, 03:47 PM
Post: #78
RE: HURRICANE JOAQUIN
where did everybody go ?

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10-02-2015, 03:56 PM
Post: #79
RE: HURRICANE JOAQUIN
[Image: 175226W5_NL_sm.gif]

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10-02-2015, 03:56 PM
Post: #80
RE: HURRICANE JOAQUIN
5PM

Quote: HURRICANE JOAQUIN DISCUSSION NUMBER 20
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112015
500 PM EDT FRI OCT 02 2015

Satellite imagery and reports from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane
Hunter aircraft indicate that Joaquin has weakened a little since
the last advisory, with the central pressure rising to 942 mb.
Based on this, the initial intensity is decreased to 110 kt.
Subsequent observations from San Salvador Island and dropsondes from
a NASA aircraft suggest the pressure is still near 942 mb. While
the hurricane continues to produce cold cloud tops in the eyewall,
the convective pattern currently looks ragged in infrared imagery,
and only occasional hints of a eye are apparent in visible imagery.

The initial motion is now 360/6. Water vapor imagery shows a mid-
to upper-level ridge to the north and northeast of the hurricane,
while a deep-layer trough and associated surface front are located
over the southeastern United States. This system is forecast to
move slowly eastward with a non-tropical low forming along the
front during the next couple of days. While this occurs, a mid- to
upper-level low currently centered near 30N 64W should move
west-northwestward to the north of Joaquin. These developments
should steer Joaquin northward for the next few hours, followed by
a turn toward the northeast. The track guidance is now in good
agreement that Joaquin will move generally northeastward between
the United States and Bermuda, with a short-lived northward turn in
the 48-72 hour period. Eventually, the cyclone is expected to
move into the westerlies and move quickly east-northeastward across
the North Atlantic. The new forecast track is similar to the
previous forecast and now lies near the consensus models.

Joaquin is forecast to remain in an environment of light vertical
wind shear for another 12-24 hours or so, and during this time some
fluctuations in intensity are possible. After 24 hours, the shear is
forecast to increase, which should start a steady weakening.
Extratropical transition is expected to begin around 96 hours and be
complete by 120 hours. Overall, the new intensity forecast is an
update of the previous advisory and lies near the intensity
consensus.


KEY MESSAGES:

1. Hurricane conditions over portions of the Bahamas should
continue for several more hours.

2. Swells from a hurricane moving even far offshore of the U.S.
east coast can still cause life-threatening surf and rip-current
conditions. Please see products from your local National Weather
Service forecast office. For information on the heavy rains
occurring along the U.S. Atlantic states that are mostly unrelated
to Hurricane Joaquin, please see products from the NWS Weather
Prediction Center and your local forecast office.

3. Since the direct threat of hurricane conditions to land areas
is diminishing significantly, this will be the last set of key
messages unless the threat increases.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 02/2100Z 24.1N 74.7W 110 KT 125 MPH
12H 03/0600Z 25.1N 73.9W 110 KT 125 MPH
24H 03/1800Z 26.9N 72.1W 105 KT 120 MPH
36H 04/0600Z 29.2N 70.0W 100 KT 115 MPH
48H 04/1800Z 31.7N 68.7W 90 KT 105 MPH
72H 05/1800Z 36.5N 67.0W 75 KT 85 MPH
96H 06/1800Z 40.5N 60.5W 65 KT 75 MPH
120H 07/1800Z 45.0N 46.0W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Beven

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