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TROPICAL STORM CRISTOBAL
08-20-2014, 08:18 AM
Post: #11
RE: 96L
[Image: 1908404_831018886916898_8502887308090999863_n.jpg]

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08-20-2014, 09:40 AM
Post: #12
RE: 96L
(08-20-2014 08:04 AM)ROLLTIDE Wrote:  Spann

Quote: ROPICS: The National Hurricane Center is monitoring two weak,
disorganized waves over the Atlantic. The lead wave has the best chance
of some development, and it will move into the eastern Caribbean Friday.
Scam artists on social media are showing scary graphics predicting a
major hurricane on the Gulf Coast for Labor Day weekend, and begging
people to “share” across Facebook. I ask that you don’t participate in
the scam… NOBODY knows the placement or intensity of a tropical cyclone 7
to 10 days in advance.
Most tropical models move the system up toward the southern coast of
Hispaniola and Cuba in 4-5 days, but it remains to be seen if this can
develop at all due to dry air, and interaction with the mountains on the
island of Hispaniola.
Same from NWS Lake Charles Twitter:

NWS Lake Charles
‏@NWSLakeCharles



19m









Quote:If you have concerns about the
potential for tropical weather, please consider that the disturbances
are 3,000 miles away from SETX/SWLA.

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08-20-2014, 10:14 AM
Post: #13
RE: 96L
Interesting set up beginning...GOM residents should be on Watch...
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08-20-2014, 11:30 AM
Post: #14
RE: 96L
[/url]FROM DAVE B with KATC:

[url=https://twitter.com/GMA_Weather]Dave Baker

@GMA_Weather



Follow



Recon is scheduled to investigate tomorrow. #HurricaneSeason2014












10:54 AM - 20 Aug 2014

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08-20-2014, 11:54 AM
Post: #15
RE: 96L
Looks like it's making a beeline for Fort Morgan, Alabama.
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08-20-2014, 01:12 PM (This post was last modified: 08-20-2014 01:25 PM by Joe-Nathan.)
Post: #16
RE: 96L
BUT FOLKS LET US ALL REMEMBER THAT ANY MODEL DATA PASSED DAY FIVE SHOULD NOT BE TRUSTED!!!

SOURCE: http://thevane.gawker.com/a-hurricane-is-coming-1624243401/+tcraggs22

A Hurricane Is Coming



http://thevane.gawker.com/a-hurricane-is...624243401#

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Dennis Mersereau
Today 8:00am
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    Quote:[Image: vuffstml4w5qm8oc7hdp.png]ExpandHow
    do you know when to trust someone when they say "a hurricane is
    coming?" Should you only trust the NWS? Television weatherpeople? Your
    favorite Gawker weather blogger? All too often, people don't care where
    they get their weather information, and that's a huge problem. We
    are hypocrites. We preach to each other from our moral pedestals only
    to do exactly that against which we preach. Telling people not to trust
    everything they read or hear makes for a great moral lesson — especially
    in the age of daily celebrity death hoaxes on Twitter and cheap Onion
    ripoffs on Facebook — but for all of these enlightened people who are
    allegedly immune from the BS, there sure are a lot of folks who still
    get taken for a ride.This goes for politics, entertainment, sports, and of course, the weather.[Image: po0nbws87mblsgmnme8k.png]ExpandOne of the most well-known sources of weather foolery is a California man named [url=http://thevane.gawker.com/weather-hoaxer-threatens-facebook-after-it-takes-down-h-1604875212]Kevin Martin,
    the infamous stony gallbladder of the weather community who sues and
    threatens and bullies people who challenge his particularly ugly form of
    internet bull. He made his name on writing fake weather stories in
    order to get them to spread virally on social media, and sadly he's
    pretty successful. His latest steaming pile of viral nonsense is seen
    above in a screenshot posted to famed meteorologist [url=https://www.facebook.com/photo.php?fbid=10152648942524936&set=a.10151008843469936.442106.761369935&type=1&permPage=1]James Spann's page, where Martin urges people to share a post that a major hurricane threatens the Gulf of Mexico next week.


    [url=http://thevane.gawker.com/weather-hoaxer-threatens-facebook-after-it-takes-down-h-1604875212][Image: owudjonifyl2tjkt5vl1.png] [url=http://thevane.gawker.com/weather-hoaxer-threatens-facebook-after-it-takes-down-h-1604875212]Weather Hoaxer Threatens Facebook After His Page Is Taken Down
    What do you do when you're the owner of a marginally popular weather page on Facebook, you and …[url=http://thevane.gawker.com/weather-hoaxer-threatens-facebook-after-it-takes-down-h-1604875212]Read moreSomething
    almost worse than a K-Mart wannabe is a person who has a large reach,
    good intentions, and knows just enough to convince a layperson but too
    little to grasp the nuance of the topic at hand. The stereotype weather
    enthusiasts frequently discuss is the weather geek who's still in high
    school, but they range from teenagers to the elderly. This is a person
    who has a limited understanding of meteorology and loves to pore over
    weather models looking for that next blizzard or hurricane. When they
    spot something, they'll take to social media and proudly post it in
    order to be the first one to alert people of the coming storm.The thing is, they're usually wrong. This
    week's major social weather screw-up revolves around the GFS (American
    global) model, which shows a potential tropical system entering the Gulf
    of Mexico late next week. Meteorology is an inexact science, and that's
    especially true for weather models. For as technologically advanced as
    they've become, models beyond five days aren't very reliable. Sometimes
    they get it right, but more often than not they get it really, really
    wrong. Forecasts beyond five days are often called "la la land" because
    they're so far off. When
    talk exploded about a possible hurricane last night, the storm was
    still almost 200 hours out on the weather model runs — eight days away.
    Eight!When
    a weather model forecasts a large and potentially disruptive hurricane
    in eight days — which is firmly in the model's "la la land" territory —
    how much should weather enthusiasts discuss it out in the open, so to
    speak? This is the largest point of contention that pops up when we have
    this debate every couple of weeks. In 24 hours the discussion went from
    "hey look at what the model is showing" to damage control because
    laymen and bomb-throwers are taking it out of context. If you think I'm
    exaggerating, just look at what Kevin Martin posted. On top of that, the
    wildly popular conservative website Drudge Report linked to a blog post
    yesterday afternoon titled "New Orleans Hurricane Exactly 9 Years After
    Katrina?" It offered no useful context, no cautions, nothing...just the
    aforementioned model image and the [url=http://thedailyshow.cc.com/videos/8ov5kh/the-question-mark]Cavuto Marked headline. The
    kicker is that the system hasn't even developed yet! There is no system
    right now. There is just a small group of disorganized clouds where the
    "invest" center is located. Models are terrible at forecasting systems
    that literally do not exist, let alone ones that are forecast to exist
    more than a week from now.How
    do we solve the problem of nuanced weather information falling into
    uninformed (or even malicious) hands? We really can't. Model data will
    always be freely available on the internet, and as the years go on the
    number of sources providing such data will continue to grow. The only
    thing we can do — writers, social media users, television
    meteorologists, teachers, anyone — is work like crazy to not only
    discount bad information but replace it with good, solid data. When
    someone says "the models are showing a blizzard next week!," don't just
    say "it's wrong," explain why it's wrong. Explain [i]why the situation might not play out like the model is suggesting.In this case, explain [i]why it's
    ludicrous to put too much stock in a weather model showing a hurricane
    eight days from now. The forecast tracks for hurricanes in the Atlantic
    basin are more than 200 miles off at five days out, and that's a [i]professional forecast.
    Forecasting is more than looking at the models; it takes skill and
    experience, knowing when to use and add value to some models and when to
    throw out others.When
    someone says "a hurricane is coming," you need to know which sources
    you can trust. If something sounds too astounding to be true, it
    probably is. Check the source's Twitter bio or look for an "about me"
    page on their site. Television meteorologists are mostly trustworthy.
    National Weather Service meteorologists are (for the most part) the
    cream of the crop. You can trust well-known blogs like the [url=http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/capital-weather-gang/]Capital Weather Gang or the Facebook pages of well-respected meteorologists like [url=https://www.facebook.com/spann]James Spann or [url=https://www.facebook.com/twcdrforbes]Dr. Greg Forbes.Do
    some research into the person posting the doomsday forecast. Do they
    have experience in meteorology? What's their track record? Do other
    professionals vouch for their validity by linking to them or voicing
    their approval? Doing some research beyond what's in a headline and the
    first few sentences is hard work, I know!, but it's necessary in order
    to not look like a fool and potentially harm other people with bad
    information.With regard to the potential, and I stress [i]potential,
    storm next week, it's worth watching since we're quickly approaching
    the peak of hurricane season. The models are still keeping the storm
    more than seven days away from the United States, and that's forever in
    weather time. The model spread currently shows the potential storm
    ("potential" because it hasn't even developed yet!) tracking anywhere
    from Mexico to the open Atlantic Ocean. We can't completely rule it out
    yet, but when the weather model is showing something eight days away and
    people are talking it up, take that talk with a grain of salt. Wait
    until the storm enters the period when scientific forecasting can
    replace speculation. It's far too early to say when, where, or even [i]if a
    storm will happen. Coastal residents from Brownsville to Bar Harbor
    know the drill — we're coming up on the end of August. This is the prime
    time for hurricanes. Regardless of the threat, pay attention to the
    forecasts, and know which sources to trust when someone screams "a
    hurricane is coming!"[[i]Images: author / screenshot by James Spann]
    [/i][/i][/i][/i][/i][/i]

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08-20-2014, 01:30 PM
Post: #17
RE: 96L
The models nailed Katrina a week out so who cares what somebody post on the interweb

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08-20-2014, 02:00 PM
Post: #18
RE: 96L
Quote: TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT WED AUG 20 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Shower and thunderstorm activity associated with an elongated area
of low pressure located several hundred miles east of the Windward
Islands has become a little better organized during the past few
hours. Additional slow development of this system is possible during
the next day or two, and a tropical depression could form as the
system moves west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph across the Lesser
Antilles and into the Caribbean Sea. After that time, land
interaction could limit development potential over the weekend.
Regardless of tropical cyclone formation, gusty winds and heavy
rainfall are possible across portions of the Lesser Antilles, Puerto
Rico, and the Virgin Islands on Thursday night and Friday. Interests
in those islands should closely monitor the progress of this system.
An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to
investigate this system tomorrow afternoon, if necessary.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...60 percent.

$$
2pm

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08-20-2014, 03:58 PM
Post: #19
RE: 96L
IMPACT WX ADVISORY #4:

Disturbance 19 Advisory 4

Issued: Wednesday, August 20th 2014 2:50pm CDT
Quote:Current Position: 12.2N, 52.5W
Geographical Reference: 470 miles east of Barbados
Movement: West at 10 mph
Organization Trend: Increasing slowly
Chance of Development Within 48 Hours: 30 percent
Chance of Development Within 7 Days: 65 percent
Peak Forecast Radius of Tropical Storm Force Winds: 100 miles
Forecast Confidence: Below average
Changes From Our Previous Forecast

We have increased the chance of development for both the 48 hour and
the 168 hour time period. The disturbance has also been relocated to the
east of our previous position based upon the latest satellite imagery.
Our Forecast

Disturbance 19 has become a bit better organized this afternoon.
Satellite imagery indicates that consolidation is starting to occur. The
consolidation is expected to be slow. Thus, it is more likely that
development will occur after 48 hours. In the 5 to 7 day time period,
environmental and oceanic conditions may be quite favorable for
development. If anything were to form during this time period, we cannot
rule out a period of quick intensification. We think that the system
will be either a strong tropical storm or a hurricane in 7 days.
The latest model guidance is shifting to the east. However, the
guidance has not been consistent. In the 5 to 7 day time period, the
system could be in the northwest Caribbean, the southeast Gulf of
Mexico, or the Bahamas. The eventual track is highly dependent upon
where the center consolidates. Our thinking is that the center will
consolidate to the north of the current position, which would result in a
track just south if the Greater Antilles. In the 6 to 7 day time
period, the system will likely be in either the southeast Gulf of
Mexico, over the Florida Peninsula, or in the NW Bahamas. If the center
were to consolidate south of where we expect it to, then the system
would likely track through the Caribbean, farther away from the Greater
Antilles. This would increase the threat to the central Gulf of Mexico.

Expected Impacts on land
Windward and Leeward Islands:
The system is expected to bring heavy rainfall and localized flooding
as it moves through the area late Thursday through Friday. Wind gusts
to tropical storm force are possible. These impacts will occur
regardless as to whether or not the system becomes a tropical depression
or a tropical storm.
Expected impacts Offshore
East Caribbean: Heavy squalls are likely to move into the eastern Caribbean by early Friday.
NW Bahamas/NW Caribbean/SE Gulf of Mexico:
Tropical storm force winds are possible within 100 miles of the center
starting in about 5 days for the NW Caribbean or NW Bahamas. Any impacts
to the southeast Gulf of Mexico are 6 to 7 days away. Our next advisory will be issued at 10 PM AST (9 PM CDT).
Meteorologists: Derek Ortt / Andrew Hagen

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08-20-2014, 05:01 PM
Post: #20
RE: 96L
[Image: 1908404_831018886916898_8502887308090999863_n.jpg]
[Image: 7354_831342463551207_5926312237339374582_n.jpg]

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