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TROPICAL STORM KAREN
10-03-2013, 12:45 PM
Post: #391
RE: TROPICAL STORM KAREN
Levi update

Quote: Karen Forms in the Gulf of Mexico – Will Bring Blustery/Wet Weekend to North Gulf Coast

Posted by Levi at 12:13pm on October 3, 2013


Tropical Storm Karen has formed in the southern Gulf of
Mexico from a disturbance that moved out of the Caribbean. Thunderstorm
activity remains limited to the eastern side, and the circulation
appears to be tilted to the east with height due to some southwesterly
wind shear. Such shear is typical with October storms in the gulf, and
it is unlikely to go away. In fact, as an upper trough digs in from the
west as Karen nears landfall, this wind shear should get worse. Thus,
the storm is likely to remain eastern-weighted, with most weather
impacts occurring east of landfall in 60-72 hours. The NHC has increased
Karen’s winds to 65mph after recon data during the night, but the
thunderstorm activity has weakened since that time, and a new plane will
re-assess Karen’s intensity. The maximum winds were very localized
already, and with a central pressure of only 1005mb, Karen in reality is
a pretty weak tropical storm at this time.

The GFS has been throwing a fly into the ointment by forecasting
Karen to strengthen substantially before landfall, reaching minimal
hurricane strength, along with a track farther east well into Florida.
The GFS so far is the only global model to do this, as the ECMWF, UKMET,
and CMC are not as bullish. I consider the GFS solution to likely be
erroneous feedback, given that Karen is already struggling to get
vertically stacked, and wind shear will only get worse with time. In
addition, the low-level inflow pattern currently in place with
large-scale anticyclonic (clockwise) flow in the SW Atlantic is not
conducive for storms, as Karen will lose her moist inflow channel from
the Caribbean as she moves north. The environment favors the
ECMWF/UKMET/CMC solutions of a weak-moderate tropical storm moving into
the north gulf coast, farther west than the GFS ahead of a mid-latitude
trough. The NHC is forecasting Karen to become a hurricane and then
weaken slightly before landfall, likely due to her initial intensity
already being 65mph. Karen currently appears to be weaker, and if the
next recon plane affirms this, then Karen’s chances of becoming a
hurricane currently seem dim. Blustery, tropical storm force conditions
and heavy rain will impact the north gulf coast east of the center at
landfall late Saturday and Sunday.

[Image: Karen_10-3-13.png]

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10-03-2013, 12:51 PM
Post: #392
RE: TROPICAL STORM KAREN
(10-03-2013 12:35 PM)pcbjr Wrote:  Fat lady needs a wet martini; her drink is too dry ....
She is on A-symetrical girl.

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10-03-2013, 12:52 PM
Post: #393
RE: TROPICAL STORM KAREN
(10-03-2013 12:51 PM)Joe-Nathan Wrote:  
(10-03-2013 12:35 PM)pcbjr Wrote:  Fat lady needs a wet martini; her drink is too dry ....
She is on A-symetrical girl.
Just how I like my woman..... Wait I didn't just say that did I ?

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10-03-2013, 01:00 PM
Post: #394
RE: TROPICAL STORM KAREN
1pm

Quote: BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM KAREN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 2A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122013
100 PM CDT THU OCT 03 2013

...KAREN EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE NORTHERN GULF COAST ON SATURDAY...


SUMMARY OF 100 PM CDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.9N 88.2W
ABOUT 430 MI...695 KM S OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES

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10-03-2013, 01:01 PM
Post: #395
RE: TROPICAL STORM KAREN
[Image: KAREN-2013-wv.gif]

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10-03-2013, 01:02 PM
Post: #396
RE: TROPICAL STORM KAREN
[Image: image_full3.gif]

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10-03-2013, 01:05 PM
Post: #397
RE: TROPICAL STORM KAREN
[Image: rgb_lalo-animated.gif]

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10-03-2013, 01:18 PM
Post: #398
RE: TROPICAL STORM KAREN
(10-03-2013 01:01 PM)ROLLTIDE Wrote:  [Image: KAREN-2013-wv.gif]
Looks like the dry air is about to get pinched out. If so shear will probably be the only hindrance.

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10-03-2013, 01:26 PM
Post: #399
RE: TROPICAL STORM KAREN
Appears Karen will emerge as a low level swirl.

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10-03-2013, 01:26 PM
Post: #400
RE: TROPICAL STORM KAREN
[Image: image2.gif]

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