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TROPICAL STORM KAREN
10-02-2013, 07:11 PM (This post was last modified: 10-02-2013 07:12 PM by Paul212.)
Post: #221
RE: INVEST 97L FL THREAT
Why is this called a FL Threat? Most of the models having it going into LA,MS,AL shouldn't it be a nothern gulf coast threat. Florida is a big state too.

Looks like a TS right now, big blow up over the center. Should be named with in the next 12 hours or less.


I predict a 1st landfall off the mouth of the mississippi river then curving to pascagoula, ms.
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10-02-2013, 07:19 PM
Post: #222
RE: INVEST 97L FL THREAT
IMPACTWX

Quote: Disturbance 58 Advisory 12

Issued: Wednesday, October 2nd 2013 2:46pm CDT
Current Location: 19.1N / 85.8W
Geographic Reference: 110 miles SSE of Cozumel, MX
Movement: NNW near 9 mph
Maximum Sustained Winds: 30 mph with gusts to 45 mph
Organizational trend: Slowly increasing
Chance of Development Within 48 hours: 70 percent
Changes From Our Previous Forecast

It now appears that the disturbance will very likely become a tropical
depression by tomorrow morning and a tropical storm during the day on
Thursday. We have increased development chances to 70 percent on this
advisory, and that may still be a little on the conservative side.
There are no changes to the projected track.
Our Forecast

A recon plane investigating the disturbance is finding a broad and weak
low-level circulation center located west of the heavier squalls.
Though the circulation does not yet appear to qualify for an upgrade to
tropical depression status, we think that it is only a matter of hours
before the disturbance becomes a depression and then the eleventh
tropical storm of the 2013 season. Model guidance remains in very good
agreement, taking the center northward to the central Gulf by tomorrow
evening, followed by a gradual turn to the NNE-NE on Friday as the storm
moves into the northern Gulf. We think that landfall will occur on
Saturday late afternoon or evening near the western Florida Panhandle.
It is possible that the center could make landfall as far west as the
Mississippi coast or as far east as the Apalachicola, FL area in the
center of the Panhandle. As for its intensity, though
some models indicate that it could become a hurricane, we think that
more likely it will remain a weak to moderate tropical storm with winds
in the 45 mph to 60 mph range. The storm should begin encountering
increasing westerly wind shear on Friday as it approaches the northern
Gulf coast. This will halt any strengthening and likely lead to a
little weakening prior to landfall. In addition, heaviest squalls and
most tropical storm force winds should be located east of the track.

Expected Impacts Onshore
Cayman Islands: A few lingering showers/thunderstorms this evening, but accumulations should generally be an inch or less.
Northeast Yucatan: Heavy rain is possible through tomorrow. Accumulations of 3-5 inches are possible. No major flooding is likely.
Northern Gulf Coast:
Rain
: Squalls associated with the disturbance are likely to impact the area
on Saturday. The first squalls could arrive by late Friday. Rainfall
amounts of 3-6 inches with isolated totals of 8 inches will be possible
over a small area near and to the east of where the center moves inland.

Wind : Sustained winds of tropical storm strength
may impact the beach areas, along with gusts of 50 mph to 60 mph.
Tropical storm force winds will not likely penetrate very far inland.
Expected Impacts Offshore
Eastern and Central Gulf of Mexico:
The first squalls are likely to reach the deepwater lease areas
offshore of Mississippi by late tomorrow. The squalls should continue
through late Saturday. The squalls could produce wind gusts to 60 mph.
Most squalls should remain east of 90W. The next advisory will be issued by 9PM CDT
Meteorologists: Chris Hebert / Jim Palmer

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10-02-2013, 07:23 PM
Post: #223
RE: INVEST 97L FL THREAT
Regardless of the final landfall location, the Florida Peninsula will be on the eastern side of the storm. With the anticipated pressure gradient, moisture rich warm atmosphere, elevated sea temperatures and potential for heavy rains, Florida, at the least, will experience a rain event. At the worst, the rain event can pack some near hurricane force winds for a substantial part of Florida. That's why there's a threat for Florida.
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10-02-2013, 07:39 PM
Post: #224
RE: INVEST 97L FL THREAT
..

Quote: TXNT25 KNES 030000
TCSNTL

A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE (97L)

B. 02/2345Z

C. 20.1N

D. 85.3W

E. FIVE/GOES-E

F. T2.0/2.0/D1.5/24HRS

G. IR/EIR/VIS

H. REMARKS...COULD NOT DISCERN A CLOSED LOW LEVEL CENTER IN 2304Z SSMIS
IMAGE SO LOW CONFIDENCE IN FIX POSITION. FINAL VIS IMAGES SHOWED AN
IRREGULAR CDO MEASURING 1.25 DEGREES WHICH RESULTS IN A DT OF 2.0. PT
AGREES WHILE MET IS 1.5. FT IS BASED ON DT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...TURK

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10-02-2013, 07:44 PM
Post: #225
RE: INVEST 97L FL THREAT
[Image: 2013AL97_MPSATWD_2013100300_SWND.png]

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10-02-2013, 07:45 PM
Post: #226
RE: INVEST 97L FL THREAT
18Z HWRF
[Image: slp17.png]

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10-02-2013, 07:46 PM
Post: #227
RE: INVEST 97L FL THREAT
[Image: ge_pyuc_h2o.jpg]

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10-02-2013, 07:55 PM
Post: #228
RE: INVEST 97L FL THREAT
[Image: at201397_model_zoom.gif]

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10-02-2013, 07:57 PM
Post: #229
RE: INVEST 97L FL THREAT
[Image: rb_lalo-animated.gif]

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10-02-2013, 08:01 PM
Post: #230
RE: INVEST 97L FL THREAT
[Image: 3374.gif?r=1380761930]

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