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INVEST 95L GOM
09-19-2013, 10:13 AM
Post: #71
RE: INVEST 95L GOM
I will try to get Tapatalk installed soon

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09-19-2013, 01:09 PM
Post: #72
RE: INVEST 95L GOM
1PM

Quote: tlantic Graphical TWO Area 1 closeup












[Image: atl1.gif]
Return to Atlantic Graphical TWO
1. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN ASSOCIATION WITH AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE LOCATED OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO HAVE
DIMINISHED SOME TODAY. THE AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER
AIRCRAFT THAT WAS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THE LOW THIS AFTERNOON
WAS CANCELLED. HOWEVER...CONDITIONS STILL APPEAR SOMEWHAT CONDUCIVE
FOR THE FORMATION OF A TROPICAL DEPRESSION DURING THE NEXT DAY OR
TWO WHILE THE SYSTEM MOVES TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST TO
NORTHWESTWARD AT 5 TO 10 MPH. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...60
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS...AND A HIGH CHANCE...60 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. THIS DISTURBANCE COULD SPREAD
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS OVER PORTIONS OF EASTERN AND SOUTHERN MEXICO
DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

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09-19-2013, 01:15 PM
Post: #73
RE: INVEST 95L GOM
[Image: storm_95.gif]

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09-19-2013, 06:48 PM
Post: #74
RE: INVEST 95L GOM
..

Quote: Atlantic Graphical TWO Area 1 closeup












[Image: atl1.gif]
Return to Atlantic Graphical TWO
1. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO
CENTERED ABOUT 150 MILES EAST OF TUXPAN MEXICO IS PRODUCING
DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. ALTHOUGH ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS ARE ONLY MARGINALLY CONDUCIVE...THIS LOW STILL HAS THE
POTENTIAL TO BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO.
THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...50 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS WHILE IT MOVES TO THE
WEST-NORTHWEST OR NORTHWEST AT 5 TO 10 MPH....AND A MEDIUM
CHANCE...50 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 5 DAYS. THIS DISTURBANCE WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINS OVER PORTIONS OF EASTERN AND SOUTHERN MEXICO DURING THE
NEXT FEW DAYS.

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09-20-2013, 07:07 AM
Post: #75
RE: INVEST 95L GOM
8am

Quote: SHOWER ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE
SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO...ABOUT 90 MILES EAST OF TAMPICO
MEXICO...IS LIMITED. THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE TOWARD THE
NORTHWEST AT 5 TO 10 MPH...AND ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE ONLY
MARGINALLY FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM
CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. THIS DISTURBANCE WILL
CONTINUE TO PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS OVER PORTIONS OF EASTERN
AND SOUTHERN MEXICO DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. AN AIR FORCE
HURRICANE HUNTER PLANE WILL INVESTIGATE THE AREA LATER TODAY...IF
NECESSARY.

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09-20-2013, 10:08 AM
Post: #76
RE: INVEST 95L GOM
IMPACT

Quote: Disturbance 52 Advisory 13

Issued: Friday, September 20th 2013 8:51am CDT

Current Position: 22.3N, 96.4W
Geographic Reference: 85 miles east of Tampico, Mexico
Movement: Northwest at 5 mph
Organizational Trend: Steady
Chan ce of Development Within 48 Hours: 30 percent
Changes From Our Previous Forecast

We no longer are forecasting Disturbance 52 to linger in the southwest
Gulf. Instead, we are forecasting the system to move to the north and
merge with the frontal boundary off of the Texas Coast by Sunday
morning. We have also decreased the chance of development from 35 to 30
percent.
Our Forecast

Squalls have increased somewhat in association with Disturbance 52 this
morning. However, they remain to the south of the center due to
persistent northerly wind shear. The shear is likely to persist.
Therefore, we have reduced the chance of development to 30 percent. It
should be stated that development into a tropical system is the less
likely scenario. Instead, the disturbance will most likely remain as a
disturbance. There has been a change in the track
forecast reasoning. It is now believed that the frontal system will
cause the disturbance to move more to the north. By Sunday, we expect
the system to have merged with a frontal system off of the Texas Coast.
This could produce a widespread heavy rain event for the northern Gulf
Coast.

Expected Impacts Onshore
Veracruz to Matamoros, Mexico: 3-6 inches of rain are possible through Sunday.
Texas and Louisiana Coasts:
Heavy rain is likely from a combination of Disturbance 52 and the
frontal boundary. Isolated areas could receive as many as 8 inches of
rain through Monday.
Expected Impacts Offshore
Bay of Campeche:
Squally conditions are possible through this today in the southwestern
Gulf of Mexico. Wind gusts to 50 mph are possible within the strongest
squalls. Beginning tomorrow, sustained winds of 25 mph to 35 mph will
be possible within 50 miles of the center.
Northern Gulf of Mexico:
Scattered squalls related to the frontal passage and Disturbance 52 are
possible over the weekend. Wind gusts in the squalls could reach 50
mph to 60 mph. Our next advisory will be issued by 3 PM CDT.
Meteorologists: Derek Ortt / Nathan Stanford

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09-20-2013, 12:52 PM
Post: #77
RE: INVEST 95L GOM
Lots of rain for us, I believe.
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09-20-2013, 01:16 PM
Post: #78
RE: INVEST 95L GOM
Down to 20%

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09-20-2013, 01:33 PM
Post: #79
RE: INVEST 95L GOM
Visible satellite shows the low is more of surface feature moving north. At the rate it's moving, it will be caught up in the frontal boundary sometime tomorrow and kick the current front - which is dropping a lot of rain as it approaches - up a notch.

Coastal flood advisories are posted for part of Texas due to east winds:

COASTAL HAZARD MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
618 AM CDT FRI SEP 20 2013

...MINOR COASTAL FLOODING CONTINUES TO BE POSSIBLE...

.A PERSISTENT TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE MID ATLANTIC AND AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE BAY
OF CAMPECHE CONTINUES TO GENERATE AN EASTERLY FETCH WITH 7 TO
9-SECOND SWELLS. AS A RESULT...A PILE-UP OF WATER IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE CAUSING OCCASIONAL MINOR COASTAL FLOODING THROUGH
SATURDAY MORNING.

LAZ052>054-073-074-TXZ215-202100-
/O.CON.KLCH.CF.Y.0005.000000T0000Z-130921T1200Z/
VERMILION-IBERIA-ST. MARY-WEST CAMERON-EAST CAMERON-JEFFERSON-
618 AM CDT FRI SEP 20 2013

...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM CDT
SATURDAY...

A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM CDT
SATURDAY.

* COASTAL FLOODING: THE TIDE LEVELS WILL BE RUNNING FROM 1.0 TO
1.5 FEET ABOVE NORMAL. THE ACTUAL TIDE WILL REACH BETWEEN 2.5
AND 3.5 FEET AROUND THE TIME OF HIGH TIDES.

* IMPACTS: MINOR FLOODING OF AREA ROADWAYS AROUND SABINE PASS...
HOLLY BEACH...INTRACOASTAL CITY...CYPREMORT POINT...AND BURNS
POINT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY INDICATES THAT ONSHORE WINDS AND TIDES
WILL COMBINE TO GENERATE FLOODING OF LOW AREAS ALONG THE SHORE.

&&

$$

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09-20-2013, 01:36 PM
Post: #80
RE: INVEST 95L GOM
[Image: storm_95.gif]

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