HardcoreWeather http://www.hardcoreweather.com/ This is a discussion forum about weather, hurricanes, tropical storms. We have a game arcade and a chat room also. en Thu, 09 Sep 2010 08:48:46 GMT vBulletin 60 http://hardcoreweather.com/images/misc/rss.png HardcoreWeather http://www.hardcoreweather.com/ <![CDATA[Q&A with the NHC]]> http://www.hardcoreweather.com/showthread.php/24053-Q-amp-A-with-the-NHC?goto=newpost Thu, 09 Sep 2010 00:34:06 GMT Q & A for NHC - Lixion Avila, Ph.D.

Senior Hurricane Specialist
 National Hurricane Center
By Dennis Feltgen
Public Affairs Officer
NOAA Communications & External Affairs
National Hurricane Center
Your resume tells me you have been around the block a few times.

Well, I am an old man!

Then you must have been bitten by the weather bug a long time ago.

Yes, I have to admit that I have enjoyed the tropical weather since I was a little kid. I grew up in the Caribbean on the island of Cuba, where I got tropical storms, I got big waves and rain every day. I loved it.

Is there one event that pulled the trigger, or was it a series of things?

I think it was a whole series of events, but I do remember clearly Hurricane Donna (1960) when it was moving along the north coast of Cuba, and the winds. I was a very young kid then, and it really got me into weather.

Obviously your youth was in Cuba, but what was your schooling?

A little bit of my schooling took place in Cuba, but most of my formal education, my Masters and PhD, was here in the United States.

Did you actually work in Cuba as a meteorologist?

Yes, I did. I worked for a few years at the Cuban Met Service. I got a lot of experience looking at the weather and talking with a lot of the old timers there. They had a lot of experience. And that was pretty good. However, the good education, the math, the dynamics, I got it in the United States.

What was the reason you came to the U.S.?

That is an easy answer for any Cuban. They all want to come here like everybody else. But a lot of my relatives were in the United States, and it was time for me to move on. I went to the U.S. Office of Interest Section in Havana; I got my visa, came here legally, and went to school at the University of Miami.

The National Hurricane Center was very close by.

The first thing I did, before I even went to the University of Miami, was visit the Hurricane Center. Neil Frank was the director at the time, and Paul Hebert was the deputy director. They immediately gave me a letter for me to visit the Center anytime I wanted and to work for them if I wanted to translate the advisories into Spanish.

That was a good opportunity.

I did that, and then the opportunity came to enter the University of Miami. Things continued to get better for me because now I was getting the education. Neil Frank continued to hire me. Bill Gray hired me to collect the data he is now using to base his seasonal forecast. Vernon Dvorak, who was developing the upgrade to the new Dvorak technique, wanted me to help him collect the satellite pictures from the basement. At the same time he was working, he was teaching me. For me, it was a fascinating experience to be able to talk with all of these forecasters. And then you had Gil Clark, Bob Case, Hal Gerrish, they all liked me and trained me. When the position was open, I got it.

What position was that?

I was a meteorologist with the TAFB unit for a few years. I was in heaven, I loved to work there. In fact, Max Mayfield and I worked a lot of shifts together. Then after two years, they made me a senior hurricane specialist.

How long before you had your first big event?

When I was in TAFB, we had Hurricane Gilbert (1988). The senior hurricane specialist back then needed help, and I was always eager to do so, whatever was needed. It was a big storm for me. I was able to do a lot of TV interviews in Spanish. There were many storms since then, but I do remember my first advisory, it was Hurricane Jerry (1989) in the Gulf of Mexico. I was supposed to have some training, but they told me you had to do it! Of course I did it, and Gil Clark supervised me.

It's very obvious that you enjoy what you do.

I am very lucky to be able to do what I want to do, and I do not want to do anything else. Especially when I know I am helping the community and saving lives. Not only in the United States, but as you know, the Hurricane Center has international responsibilities. We coordinate the watches and warnings with all of the Caribbean countries. For me, coming from the Caribbean, it's an extra happiness that I am able to help all of the people in the region.

You're heavily involved with the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) in that aspect, right?

I am like the focal point here, and I do the paperwork for every project involving the WMO. But all of the specialists coordinate with them and we are all prepared to talk with them.

We've had an infusion of new blood in the hurricane specialist unit during the past few years. Do you see in them a little bit of what you went through?

Oh yes. Some of them are really excited just like me. They think they know how to forecast and come in very "pompous". But everyone will learn, or have already learned, that it's not that simple. When I finished fresh from school, I thought I was going to solve all of the problems, be able to predict intensity, be able to do everything. But as soon as you put your name on that forecast, you become very humble. And that's good. I am glad people are coming with a lot of enthusiasm, and they bring new ideas and new techniques.

With all of your time and experience, do you consider yourself a teacher and mentor?

Well, if they want to listen to me, I am glad to talk with them. But sometimes the new generation does not want to listen to the old man, and that's their loss. But most of the new kids are really wonderful. They listen, and put up with my old rules that sometime work.

What is the most fun part of your job?

For me, it is to come to work every day and look at the first visible satellite picture, because that's the first idea of what's going on in the tropics. The other fancy things are all important, but for me the first visible picture of the day is amazing.

What is the worst part of your job?

Supervisors! But I guess we all have them one way or another and the way society is structured. But I get along well with them.

Even though you would probably love being here 24/7, what do you do to relax?

I go to the beach; I love to swim. As I said, I grew up on the beach. But I also have a hobby, one of the things I like the most, and that is to go to the ballet. I am lucky enough to know most of the best dancers in the world. Life had been good to me, and I got to know them. And I guess it's because I am interested in ballet and they love hurricanes. So that's a good combination. It's a lot of fun.

How much longer do you see yourself doing all of this?

There have been times when I have been tempted. Not because I have problems here or anything like that, but because there have been some opportunities. For example, some TV stations have made offers. One wanted me to be the "Max Mayfield" of Spanish TV. I was tempted to compete with Max; it would be fun because Max is a good friend of mine. But I still love this job too much and I don't think I am ready to leave it.


Send comments to: nhc.public.affairs@noaa.gov

Return to Q & A index of stories ]]> Tropical Weather ROLLTIDE http://www.hardcoreweather.com/showthread.php/24053-Q-amp-A-with-the-NHC We saved our employees jobs. http://www.hardcoreweather.com/showthread.php/24052-We-saved-our-employees-jobs.?goto=newpost Wed, 08 Sep 2010 20:00:31 GMT We saved the job of every employee we have. No lay offfs. Bob is not taking a salary and I'm only taking 10 hours a month. Let's see other companies do that. Yes, I know bragging is a sin.:tongue: ]]> Anything Goes Wounded Bird http://www.hardcoreweather.com/showthread.php/24052-We-saved-our-employees-jobs. Tropical wave near the Windward Islands develops http://www.hardcoreweather.com/showthread.php/24051-Tropical-wave-near-the-Windward-Islands-develops?goto=newpost Wed, 08 Sep 2010 19:58:42 GMT This popped up out of nowhere. ---Quote--- *Atlantic Graphical TWO Area 2 closeup* Image: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo/atl2.gif (http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo_atl.shtml) Return to Atlantic Graphical TWO (http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo_atl.shtml) 2. DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS... This popped up out of nowhere.

Quote:
Atlantic Graphical TWO Area 2 closeup

Return to Atlantic Graphical TWO
2. DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE VICINITY OF THEWINDWARD ISLANDS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE. DEVELOPMENT...IF ANY...IS EXPECTED TO BE SLOW TO OCCUR AS THESYSTEM MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 5 TO 10 MPH. THERE IS A LOWCHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONEDURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
]]> Tropical Weather dkmac http://www.hardcoreweather.com/showthread.php/24051-Tropical-wave-near-the-Windward-Islands-develops Test yourself new daily quiz http://www.hardcoreweather.com/showthread.php/24050-Test-yourself-new-daily-quiz?goto=newpost Wed, 08 Sep 2010 18:07:17 GMT *AskHeritage.org has a fun new daily quiz - five new questions each day at* http://www.askheritage.org/mm-quiz.html *.....and these are the guys that have the free pocket Constitution/Declaration of Independence* Image: http://www.askheritage.org/image/declaration-of-independence.jpg
AskHeritage.org has a fun new daily quiz - five new questions each day at
http://www.askheritage.org/mm-quiz.html


.....and these are the guys that have the free pocket Constitution/Declaration of Independence




Oh Oh..............and this is not the one where the publisher put a warning label at the front like a "Pack of Cigarettes"

http://volokh.com/2010/05/06/quite-a-warning-label/

Quote:
<H2>Quite a Warning Label
Quote:

Eugene Volokh • May 6, 2010 4:32 pm

© Wilder Publications 2008
This book is a product of its time and does not reflect the same values as it would if it were written today. Parents might wish to discuss with their children how views on race, gender, sexuality, ethnicity, and interpersonal relations have changed since this book was written before allowing them to read this classic work.
The book involved? A reprint of The Constitution, the Declaration of Independence, and the Articles of Confederation. The language is apparently boilerplate from the publisher, and appears on (among other things) The Wind in the Willows, The Federalist Papers, Nietzsche’s Beyond Good and Evil (good idea, there, especially as to “interpersonal relations,” though have views really changed so much since then?), and Marx & Engels’ Manifesto of the Communist Party. Thanks for the pointer to Walter Olson (Cato@Liberty), and to Cory Andrews.
</H2> ]]> General News kobayashi http://www.hardcoreweather.com/showthread.php/24050-Test-yourself-new-daily-quiz <![CDATA[How about this for a "Katfive" Avatar?]]> http://www.hardcoreweather.com/showthread.php/24049-How-about-this-for-a-quot-Katfive-quot-Avatar?goto=newpost Wed, 08 Sep 2010 17:27:35 GMT *I just saw this on the web and of course it struck me as the perfect Katfive Avatar* Image: http://www.drudgereport.com/rahm.jpg Okay Okay.........katfive is the antithesis of Rahm Emanuel, besides I doubt katfive ever danced Ballet,,, .......I can NOT picture Katfive in a... I just saw this on the web and of course it struck me as the perfect Katfive Avatar





Okay Okay.........katfive is the antithesis of Rahm Emanuel, besides I doubt katfive ever danced Ballet,,,

.......I can NOT picture Katfive in a tutu, for sure.....


But that Smile.....................

Okay whats your choice for a Katfive Avatar?


[ image from drudgereport, http://www.drudgereport.com/rahm.jpg ] ]]> Anything Goes kobayashi http://www.hardcoreweather.com/showthread.php/24049-How-about-this-for-a-quot-Katfive-quot-Avatar <![CDATA[Here are those "Green Jobs" they've been promising]]> http://www.hardcoreweather.com/showthread.php/24048-Here-are-those-quot-Green-Jobs-quot-they-ve-been-promising?goto=newpost Wed, 08 Sep 2010 17:14:43 GMT I've been holding my breath looking for "Green Jobs" - the ones GE, BP, Oh and the post-2006 Congress have been promising us...
"We have a right to Green Jobs"

Quote:
Wednesday, September 8, 2010

Watch For It - The Mexican Incandescent Light Bulb Cartel


Via The Washington Post, a story about how 200 U.S. factory workers lost their jobs as part of the banning of incandesent light bulbs:
The last major GE factory making ordinary incandescent light bulbs in the United States is closing this month... The remaining 200 workers at the plant here will lose their jobs....
Don't blame Obama, the law at issue was passed in 2007:
What made the plant here vulnerable is, in part, a 2007 energy conservation measure passed by Congress that set standards essentially banning ordinary incandescents by 2014. The law will force millions of American households to switch to more efficient bulbs.

The resulting savings in energy and greenhouse-gas emissions are expected to be immense. But the move also had unintended consequences.

Rather than setting off a boom in the U.S. manufacture of replacement lights, the leading replacement lights are compact fluorescents, or CFLs, which are made almost entirely overseas, mostly in China.
Unintended consequences, again.

How long before Mexican incandescent light bulb cartels emerge, and the new threat to Arizona comes not from drug mules but light bulb smugglers?
http://legalinsurrection.blogspot.co...ent-light.html ]]> Anything Goes kobayashi http://www.hardcoreweather.com/showthread.php/24048-Here-are-those-quot-Green-Jobs-quot-they-ve-been-promising Igor forms; SW Atlantic Basin getting ready to light up http://www.hardcoreweather.com/showthread.php/24047-Igor-forms-SW-Atlantic-Basin-getting-ready-to-light-up?goto=newpost Wed, 08 Sep 2010 16:29:41 GMT If you can, playing the video in HD makes it much easier to see things. The video will play in low quality by default. If HD quality isn't available, then it will be in a few minutes. Let me know if you have problems or questions about the video.



Well I think I have found a way to try to do some updates in the mornings again. This week I'll be really settling into my class schedule so I hope to have time to do these as part of my routine. I can't promise that I'll be able to put these up every day, but I will try.

The Atlantic is fairly quiet since Hermine moved ashore dumping large amounts of rain on Texas, but we have a brand new tropical storm in the far eastern Atlantic, Tropical Storm Igor, centered just southeast of the Cape Verde Islands. This is one of the more intimidating names on the storm list this year, and I think he has a good chance to live up to his name and become a major hurricane down the road. He should have less problems with dry air than Danielle and Earl did, as he has a nice large tropical wave out in front that is bringing a potent moisture burst into the Atlantic.

The models will be jumping around trying to recurve Igor into a weakness in the central Atlantic in about 10 days. There is room for a lot of change to this idea as the pattern is very dynamic, and a lot of models are showing drastically different things from run to run, indicating the uncertainty in this kind of pattern. The European and GFS both show another storm developing behind Igor in a few days and try to recurve it early. What could be interesting is if the storm behind Igor does recurve early, amplifies the trough into the eastern Atlantic, and pumps the ridge to the west which would prevent Igor from turning out as soon. This is speculation for now as it is a long way out, but I am still very concerned that the pattern this year may allow at least one of these Cape Verde storms to come all the way across and hit the United States.

The ECMWF has been fairly consistent on developing a storm in the Caribbean in 8-10 days as heat builds up and pressures lower in the SW Atlantic Basin. It is about time for this area of the Atlantic to get going. The Caribbean has seen nothing since Alex at the very beginning of the season. The models are starting to see the upward motion shift west towards the Caribbean after being focused over Africa during the Cape Verde storm burst, and this makes good sense given that the Cape Verde season typically starts to slow down during the 2nd half of September. August is the most active month for the eastern Atlantic climatologically, and once that area starts to shut down for the year, the activity is just going to shift west into the SW Atlantic Basin where storms are very likely to threaten land. We've already had Hermine as a warning shot that things will start to get active over there.

Just because most of our storms have been of Cape Verde origin this year doesn't mean that the season will end when the eastern Atlantic shuts down. The activity will simply shift west, and that's why the U.S. should still be very concerned about potential landfalls in the 2nd half of September and October. The Gulf of Mexico is a hot spot and deceptively favorable for storms that could get in there. Bonnie and a couple of TDs have made it seem like it's been unfavorable, but in reality it has been very favorable on average, but no storms have gotten in there to take advantage of it. We saw how fast Hermine tried to ramp up. It is not something to take lightly. I still expect a few more storms to hit the United States before the season is over.

We shall see what happens! ]]> Tropical Weather Levi32 http://www.hardcoreweather.com/showthread.php/24047-Igor-forms-SW-Atlantic-Basin-getting-ready-to-light-up What the heck is this all about? http://www.hardcoreweather.com/showthread.php/24045-What-the-heck-is-this-all-about?goto=newpost Wed, 08 Sep 2010 14:35:34 GMT http://judiciary.senate.gov/hearings...ng.cfm?id=4771


“Firearms in Commerce: Assessing the Need for Reform in the Federal Regulatory Process”
Senate Judiciary Committee
Full Committee
View a webcast of this hearing
DATE: September 14, 2010
TIME: 10:00 AM
ROOM: Dirksen-226
OFFICIAL HEARING NOTICE / WITNESS LIST:

September 7, 2010

NOTICE OF COMMITTEE HEARING
The Senate Committee on the Judiciary has scheduled a hearing entitled "Firearms in Commerce: Assessing the Need for Reform in the Federal Regulatory Process" for Tuesday, September 14, 2010 at 10:00 a.m. in Room 226 of the Dirksen Senate Office Building.

By order of the Chairman. ]]> General News warwoman http://www.hardcoreweather.com/showthread.php/24045-What-the-heck-is-this-all-about Site slowness issues http://www.hardcoreweather.com/showthread.php/24044-Site-slowness-issues?goto=newpost Wed, 08 Sep 2010 13:58:45 GMT or is it just my computer and internet connection ? or is it just my computer and internet connection ? ]]> Anything Goes ROLLTIDE http://www.hardcoreweather.com/showthread.php/24044-Site-slowness-issues In honor of our president http://www.hardcoreweather.com/showthread.php/24043-In-honor-of-our-president?goto=newpost Wed, 08 Sep 2010 13:49:45 GMT http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=G5DrKBNS8so Sit back and enjoy the funk!


Sit back and enjoy the funk! ]]> Anything Goes nightrider http://www.hardcoreweather.com/showthread.php/24043-In-honor-of-our-president Airline CEO wants to eliminate co-pilots on commercial flights http://www.hardcoreweather.com/showthread.php/24042-Airline-CEO-wants-to-eliminate-co-pilots-on-commercial-flights?goto=newpost Tue, 07 Sep 2010 22:06:10 GMT Says they need to train stewards/stewardesses to fly the plane in case of emergencies, or use the onboard computer to fly the plane.

Quote:
Eliminate co-pilots to save cash, says Ryanair CEO

Michael O'Leary is known for his outlandish money-saving ideas










ERIC PIERMONT / AFP - Getty Images Ryanair CEO Michael O'Leary's latest idea to make flying cheaper? Eliminate co-pilots.


updated 9/7/2010 1:19:22 PM ET

Ryanair CEO Michael O'Leary has a new idea to save money: Get rid of co-pilots on planes.
"Why does every plane have two pilots?" O'Leary, who oversees the largest low-cost airline in Europe, told Bloomberg Businessweek.
"Really, you only need one pilot," he added. "Let's take out the second pilot. Let the bloody computer fly it."
And if the captain is incapacitated? Train one of the cabin crew members to land the plane, O'Leary said. "If the pilot has an emergency, he rings the bell, he calls her in," O'Leary told Bloomberg Businessweek.
O'Leary is known for attention-getting ideas to make air travel cheaper, such as charging passengers to use toilets on planes or offering low-cost standing seats. The strategy garners a lot of free publicity for the Dublin, Ireland-based airline.
Jim McAuslan, the general secretary of the British Airline Pilots’ Association, told The Telegraph: “Are there no lengths to which he will not go to get publicity?
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/39040832/ns/travel-news ]]> General News dkmac http://www.hardcoreweather.com/showthread.php/24042-Airline-CEO-wants-to-eliminate-co-pilots-on-commercial-flights Bama back on the SI cover http://www.hardcoreweather.com/showthread.php/24041-Bama-back-on-the-SI-cover?goto=newpost Tue, 07 Sep 2010 17:49:21 GMT hope the jinx doesn't work. ]]> Sports Stormlover http://www.hardcoreweather.com/showthread.php/24041-Bama-back-on-the-SI-cover OLE MISS SUCKS!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!11 http://www.hardcoreweather.com/showthread.php/24040-OLE-MISS-SUCKS!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!11?goto=newpost Tue, 07 Sep 2010 15:43:55 GMT they should cancel the season immediately....

don't waste any more time or money.....scrap the program NOW, it doesn't matter if they have a program or not....if you ask someone from ole miss......they will tell you that should be in the top 10. ]]> Sports Squirrelmonkey http://www.hardcoreweather.com/showthread.php/24040-OLE-MISS-SUCKS!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!11 I have turned over a new leaf!!! I am going to be Happy Positive Munkie from now on!! http://www.hardcoreweather.com/showthread.php/24039-I-have-turned-over-a-new-leaf!!!-I-am-going-to-be-Happy-Positive-Munkie-from-now-on!!?goto=newpost Tue, 07 Sep 2010 13:32:05 GMT Image: http://www.nicefunnyjokes.com/images/visual-jokes/animal/happy-monkey-cefjfhimbdgibdgi.jpg ]]> Anything Goes Squirrelmonkey http://www.hardcoreweather.com/showthread.php/24039-I-have-turned-over-a-new-leaf!!!-I-am-going-to-be-Happy-Positive-Munkie-from-now-on!! The weasel wants more money! http://www.hardcoreweather.com/showthread.php/24038-The-weasel-wants-more-money!?goto=newpost Tue, 07 Sep 2010 10:56:54 GMT Obama calling for more infrastructure spending Email this Story Sep 6, 8:33 AM (ET) By JULIE PACE Obama calling for more infrastructure spending


Email this Story

Sep 6, 8:33 AM (ET)

By JULIE PACE











WASHINGTON (AP) - Vowing to find new ways to stimulate the sputtering economy, President Barack Obama will call for long-term investments in the nation's roads, railways and runways that would cost at least $50 billion.

The infrastructure investments are one part of a package of targeted proposals the White House is expected to announce in hopes of jump-starting the economy ahead of the November election. Obama will outline the infrastructure proposal Monday at a Labor Day event in Milwaukee.

While the proposal calls for investments over six years, the White House said spending would be front-loaded with an initial $50 billion to help create jobs in the near future.

The goals of the infrastructure plan include: rebuilding 150,000 miles of roads; constructing and maintaining 4,000 miles of railways, enough to go coast-to-coast; and rehabilitating or reconstructing 150 miles of airport runways, while also installing a new air navigation system designed to reduce travel times and delays.

Obama will also call for the creation of a permanent infrastructure bank that would focus on funding national and regional infrastructure projects.

Administration officials wouldn't say what the total cost of the infrastructure investments would be, but did say the initial $50 billion represents a significant percentage. Officials said the White House would consider closing a number of special tax breaks for oil and gas companies to pay for the proposal.

Obama made infrastructure investments a central part of the $814 billion stimulus Congress passed last year, but with that spending winding down, the economy's growth has slowed. Officials said this infrastructure package differs from the stimulus because it's aimed at long-term growth, while still focusing on creating jobs in the short-term.

In a Labor Day interview on CBS'"Early Show," Labor Secretary Hilda Solis said the plan Obama was to unveil Monday would "put construction workers, welders, electricians back to work ... folks that have been unemployed for a long time."

With the unemployment rate ticking up to 9.6 percent, and polls showing the midterm elections could be dismal for Democrats, the president has promised to unveil a series of new measures on the economy.

In addition to Monday's announcement in Milwaukee, Obama will travel to Cleveland Wednesday to pitch a $100 billion proposal to increase and make permanent research and development tax credits for businesses, a White House official said.

While the idea is popular in Congress, coming up with offsetting tax increases or spending cuts has been a stumbling block. Similar to his proposal to pay for the infrastructure investments, Obama will ask lawmakers to close tax breaks for oil and gas companies and multinational corporations to pay for the plan.

Other stimulus measures the administration is considering include extending a law passed in March that exempts companies that hire unemployed workers from paying Social Security taxes on those workers through December. Sen. Chuck Schumer, D-N.Y., has proposed extending the exemption an additional six months.

Obama is also continuing to prod the Senate to pass the small business bill that calls for about $12 billion in tax breaks and a $30 billion fund to help unfreeze lending. Republicans have likened the bill to the unpopular bailout of the financial industry. And the president wants to make permanent the portion of George W. Bush's tax cuts affecting the middle class.

Wary of the public's concern over rising deficits, the administration insists a second stimulus plan, similar to last year's $814 billion bill, is not in the works.


You know what this Sumbiatch is doing.....He doesn't have a ghosts chance of getting this passed,but wants to be able to say he's tried......Oh lawdie how he's tried...to get the jobs flowing again....only to have those vile right wingers in congress foil his vision for job creation.

BTW,wasn't the monster $800 billion + supposed to address "shovel ready" infrastructure jobs such as this? ]]> General News warwoman http://www.hardcoreweather.com/showthread.php/24038-The-weasel-wants-more-money!