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Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Fri Oct 5 2018

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Leslie, located over the central Atlantic Ocean.

1. Showers and thunderstorms associated with an area of low pressure
located near Cabo Gracias a Dios on the eastern border of Honduras
and Nicaragua have become more concentrated during the past several
hours. Although strong winds aloft are located just to the north of
this system, the upper-level environment is expected to be conducive
enough to allow slow development, and a tropical depression could
form by late this weekend or early next week over the northwestern
Caribbean Sea or southern Gulf of Mexico while the system moves
slowly northwestward. Regardless of tropical cyclone formation,
this disturbance will continue to bring torrential rains primarily
to portions of Central America and the Yucatan peninsula during the
next few days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent.
[Image: storm_197.gif]
Repeat of last year's Nate?
(10-05-2018 08:37 AM)Alex Wrote: [ -> ]Repeat of last year's Nate?

Or this years Gordon Smile
Dylan Federico

30 mins ยท

Time
to go over your Hurricane Plan if you live along the Gulf Coast.
Tropical disturbance in the W Caribbean has a high chance of development
as it moves N into the Gulf by Monday. Unanimous agreement of becoming a
tropical storm or a hurricane from model guidance. Timing for a
landfall is mid week next week. #TropicalUpdate
- Meteorologist Dylan Federico WTVM





[Image: 43244962_10216858903575533_4208306838925...e=5C4E3D0B]

3 Comments
2 Shares[/url][url=https://www.facebook.com/ufi/reaction/profile/browser/?ft_ent_identifier=10216858903855540&av=100000339246147]6
And I thought we were done for the year.....
ropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Sat Oct 6 2018

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Leslie, located over the central Atlantic Ocean.

1. Satellite imagery, surface observations, and radar data from Belize
indicate that an area of low pressure is centered just north of the
Bay Islands of Honduras. The associated showers and thunderstorms
show signs of organization, however, the system does not yet have a
well-defined circulation. Environmental conditions are expected to
become gradually more conducive for further development, and a
tropical depression or tropical storm is expected to form over the
northwestern Caribbean Sea or the southern Gulf of Mexico on Sunday
or Monday while the system moves slowly northward. Interests in the
Yucatan peninsula, western Cuba, and the northern coast of the Gulf
of Mexico should monitor the progress of this system during the next
several days. Regardless of tropical cyclone formation, this
disturbance will continue to bring torrential rains to portions of
Central America, the Yucatan peninsula, and western Cuba into next
week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

Forecaster Beven


00
WTNT44 KNHC 062050
TCDAT4

Potential Tropical Cyclone Fourteen Discussion Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142018
400 PM CDT Sat Oct 06 2018

Satellite imagery and surface observations indicate that the
circulation of the low pressure area in the northwestern Caribbean
Sea is getting better defined, and that the associated convection
is becoming better organized. While the system is currently not
well enough organized to call it a tropical depression, current
indications in the global models and the intensity guidance are that
the system will develop into a tropical cyclone within 24 h and
could bring tropical storm conditions to portions of western Cuba
and the northeastern Yucatan Peninsula. Based on the need for
warnings and watches in these areas, advisories are being initiated
on Potential Tropical Cyclone Fourteen.

Although the intensity guidance is in excellent agreement that the
system should strengthen through the forecast period, the global
models indicate that shear caused by an upper-level trough over the
Gulf of Mexico will persist through at least 48 h. In addition, the
strongest winds are currently well removed from the center, which is
likely to slow development. Based on this, the intensity forecast
is in the lower part of the guidance envelope through 48 h, and then
shows a faster rate of development from 48-96 h when the shear is
forecast to diminish. The intensity forecast is closest to a blend
of the IVCN and HCCA consensus models.

For the first 24-48 h, the disturbance should move generally
northward on the western side of a weak mid-level ridge over the
Caribbean Sea. After that time, a large mid-latitude trough over
the central United States and a mid- to upper-level ridge over the
western Atlantic should steer the system generally northward at a
faster forward speed, with the system expected to move near or over
the northern Gulf coast in about 96 h. After landfall, the system
is likely to recurve northeastward into the westerlies. The track
guidance is in good overall agreement with this scenario. However,
it should be noted that there is a nearly 300 n mi cross-track
spread in the guidance at the 96-h point. The forecast track lies
just to the west of the various consensus models.

Key Messages for Potential Tropical Cyclone Fourteen:

1. This system is expected to produce heavy rainfall and flash
flooding over portions of Central America, western Cuba, and the
northeastern Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico during the next couple of
days. The system is also forecast to become a tropical storm by
Sunday night and tropical storm conditions are expected over
portions of western Cuba where a Tropical Storm Warning is in
effect.

2. The system could bring storm surge, rainfall, and wind impacts to
portions of the northern Gulf Coast by mid-week, although it is too
soon to specify the exact location and magnitude of these impacts.
Residents in these areas should monitor the progress of this system.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 06/2100Z 18.0N 86.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE
12H 07/0600Z 18.7N 86.7W 25 KT 30 MPH
24H 07/1800Z 19.9N 86.6W 30 KT 35 MPH...TROPICAL CYCLONE
36H 08/0600Z 21.0N 86.6W 35 KT 40 MPH
48H 08/1800Z 22.5N 86.7W 40 KT 45 MPH
72H 09/1800Z 26.0N 87.5W 55 KT 65 MPH
96H 10/1800Z 30.5N 86.5W 60 KT 70 MPH
120H 11/1800Z 35.5N 81.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND

$$
Forecaster Beven
Quote:BULLETIN
Potential Tropical Cyclone Fourteen Advisory Number 2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142018
1000 PM CDT Sat Oct 06 2018

...A TROPICAL DEPRESSION OR A TROPICAL STORM EXPECTED TO FORM IN THE
NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA ON SUNDAY...
...HEAVY RAINS REACHING WESTERN CUBA...

SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.8N 86.6W
ABOUT 120 MI...190 KM S OF COZUMEL MEXICO
ABOUT 240 MI...385 KM SSW OF THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* The Cuban provinces of Pinar del Rio and the Isle of Youth

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* The coast of Mexico from Tulum to Cabo Catoche

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1000 PM CDT (0300 UTC), the low pressure system was centered near
latitude 18.8 North, longitude 86.6 West. The low is moving
northward near 6 mph (9 km/h), and this general motion is expected
for the next couple of days. On the forecast track, the low or the
tropical cyclone should move across the Yucatan Channel near the
eastern coast of the Yucatan Peninsula through Sunday night, and
then move into the southern Gulf of Mexico on Monday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 30 mph (45 km/h) with higher gusts.
Strengthening is forecast during the next couple of days, and the
system is expected to become a tropical depression on Sunday and
a tropical storm on Sunday night. A reconnaissance plane will
investigate the system on Sunday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...near 100 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...near 100 percent

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches).
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