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Full Version: Subtropical Storm Alberto
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Perfect timing. We are camping in Gulf Shores for Memorial Day week. Sorry to whine here but there is no discussion yet to distract me.
Hurricane center up to 40% development by the weekend
Quote: Special Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
745 AM EDT Tue May 22 2018

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. A broad surface low centered just east of Belize is producing a
large area of cloudiness and showers extending from the northwestern
Caribbean Sea across Cuba into the Florida peninsula. While strong
upper-level winds and dry air aloft are expected to limit
organization during the next couple of days, some gradual
subtropical or tropical development is possible late this week while
the system moves slowly northward into the central or eastern Gulf
of Mexico. Regardless of development, locally heavy rainfall is
possible across western Cuba, the Cayman Islands, and much of
Florida during the next several days. For more information on the
heavy rain threat, please see products issued by your local weather
office. The next Special Tropical Weather Outlook on this system
will be issued by 800 PM EDT.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.
[Image: storm_90.gif]
Quote: LONG TERM /Friday Through Monday/...The developing surface low
pressure over the central Gulf could transition into a tropical,
warm core system over the central Gulf by Friday and then likely
drift north toward the central Gulf coastal region through the
early part of the weekend, although a few model solutions keep it
closer to the Florida peninsula. NHC is now indicating a 40
percent chance of a some gradual subtropical or tropical
development later this week while the system moves slowly
northward into the central or eastern Gulf of Mexico. There is
still some uncertainty with the forecast movement and strength of
this system as it moves generally north toward the northern Gulf
coast. It is still too early to discuss any real specifics with
this system,
[Image: 33105218_10103766813392826_4115178818233...e=5B76E258]
12Z CMC looks to put a Cat 1 over the Pcola-Destin area on Sunday.
12Z Euro looks to put a TS over NOLA on Saturday
18Z GFS looks to put a very small TS just east of Jacksonville FL on Sunday, headed for the GA coast

What say you?
[Image: image4.png?7784e2fe21c31902a6656767ab16fa1c]
Quote: LONG TERM /Saturday Through Tuesday/...The forecast during the
long term period will depend almost entirely on the timing and
movement of the anticipated Gulf low pressure system. Should this
system materialize as anticipated, a movement to the north
central or northeast Gulf coast looks most likely. The current ECMWF
model run is a little slower in the development and the movement
north of the system than previous runs, but continues to move the
low to the north central/northeast Gulf coast in the late Saturday
into Sunday night timeframe. The GFS model continues to be slower
with development and more toward the west coast of Florida through
Sunday night. Both the ECMWF and GFS linger the low inland over
the southeast US through Tuesday, but in different locations, with
the ECMWF over the lower Mississippi River area while the GFS is
further east over Georgia and Alabama. Both scenarios would
support numerous showers and storms through the long term period
with the potential for locally heavy rainfall and possible flash
flooding over portions of the forecast area. Will continue with
the trend of higher rainfall amounts closer to the coast, where
latest WPC guidance indicates 3 to 5 inches of rainfall with
locally higher amounts will be possible through Tuesday. The
potential for high surf, minor coastal flooding, and even a slight
potential for tornadic storms is there in the long term period as
the expected surface low moves into the area, but it is simply
too far in advance with the uncertainties to give any specifics on
this. We will continue to monitor this developing situation.
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