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and the current AF C-130J last pass thru COC:


[Image: recon_AF305-0611A-IRMA_timeseries.png]
(09-04-2017 10:18 PM)SevereWxEnthusiast Wrote: [ -> ]
(09-04-2017 09:55 PM)brentwpb Wrote: [ -> ]I am not liking the trend right now. I wont mind a Matthew track like last year but this thing, as the NHC's forecast at 11 is disturbing. Heading right into key west and into the center of the state is really bad. If she goes right in the center what is the worse side of the storm? Also storm surge? I was listen to a report that the wave heights were up to 60 ft. Anybody have any insite
Well the worst part of any MOVING tropical system is the right front quadrant, usually the north east part of the storm but that depends on the direction of movement. This is because the forward motion of the storm is added to the counter clockwise winds in that quadrant. This is not the case if the storm stalls. As far as storm surge there are multiple factors that play a part including ground height above sea level, tide level at time of storm, depth of the water along the shore, slope of the sea floor up to shoreline and so on. For instance, Bermuda has little problem with storm surge because the sea floor drops rapidly away from the shoreline of the island. On the other had the northern Gulf coast has a terrible time with storm surge because the slope of the sea floor is comparatively slow to drop off causing wind driven water to build up in height as it approaches land. Wave heights out in deep ocean are a different dynamic, there won't be 60 foot waves coming on shore. The one silver lining of a storm moving up the center of the state is that it will be over land quickly and begin to degrade. This degradation may take longer over south Florida however due to wetlands, marshes, and lake Okeechobee all offering up some energy to the storm.

Excellent clarification and detailed explanation....final line is....just wait a while....we don't know what we don't know yet....
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(09-04-2017 10:26 PM)brentwpb Wrote: [ -> ]So me being in WPB area, the NE section would be right over us and we will get the brunt of it along the east coast if it comes up the middle of the state.
I wasnt around with Donna does anybody know what the end results were and impact?

By the time Donna reached the WPB area it was already severely degraded - not without impact, but not anything by the standards of our FL hurricane watchers....I can't say I have any specific info for your area, but know that the Orlando area only had the usual few uprooted trees, short-lived power outages, and so forth....again, I will say though - we don't know what we don't know....this thing could STILL turn out to the Atlantic and be a fish....then again, it could jump over to the Gulf....or anywhere and anything in between...we just need a few more days to have a better grasp of what will, or will not, influence this track....I'm sure you're prepared to the basic extent any FL resident would be during the season....give it another few days...
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(09-04-2017 10:53 PM)Joe-Nathan Wrote: [ -> ]\


and the current AF C-130J last pass thru COC:


[Image: recon_AF305-0611A-IRMA_timeseries.png]
This thing looks wicked if I'm interpreting it right. Upper left graph looks like a double eye wall of nearly equal strength!
[Image: 090514_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind.png]

000
WTNT31 KNHC 050846
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Hurricane Irma Advisory Number 24
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL112017
500 AM AST Tue Sep 05 2017

...DANGEROUS HURRICANE IRMA HEADING FOR THE LEEWARD ISLANDS WITH 150
MPH WINDS
...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.6N 57.0W
ABOUT 320 MI...515 KM E OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...150 MPH...240 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...937 MB...27.67 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of Barbados has issued a Tropical Storm Warning for
Dominica.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Antigua, Barbuda, Anguilla, Montserrat, St. Kitts, and Nevis
* Saba, St. Eustatius, and Sint Maarten
* Saint Martin and Saint Barthelemy
* British Virgin Islands
* U.S. Virgin Islands
* Puerto Rico, Vieques, and Culebra

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Guadeloupe

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Guadeloupe
* Dominica

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued
36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-
force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous. In this case, for some of easternmost islands, the
hurricane conditions are expected within the next 24 hours.
Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to
completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area in this case within 36
hours.

Interests in the Dominican Republic, Haiti, the Turks and Caicos
Islands, Cuba, and the southeastern and central Bahamas should
monitor the progress of Irma.

For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside
the United States, please monitor products issued by your national
meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the distinct eye of Hurricane Irma was
located near latitude 16.6 North, longitude 57.0 West. Irma is
moving toward the west near 14 mph (22 km/h), and this general
motion is expected to continue today, followed by a turn toward the
west-northwest tonight. On the forecast track, the core of Irma
will move near or over portions of the northern Leeward Islands
tonight and early Wednesday.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 150 mph (240 km/h)
with higher gusts. Irma is a category 4 hurricane on the
Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. A NOAA Hurricane Hunter
plane is scheduled to be in the eye of Irma within the hour.

Some fluctuations in intensity are likely during the next day
or two, but Irma is forecast to remain a powerful category 4
hurricane.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles
(220 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 937 mb (27.67 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and large
breaking waves will raise water levels by as much as 6 to 9 feet
above normal tide levels along the coasts of the extreme northern
Leeward Islands within the hurricane warning area near and to the
north of the center of Irma. Near the coast, the surge will be
accompanied by large and destructive waves.

The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause
normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters
moving inland from the shoreline. The water is expected to reach
the following heights above ground if the peak surge occurs at the
time of high tide...

British and U.S. Virgin Islands except St. Croix...4 to 6 ft
Northern coast of Puerto Rico...2 to 4 ft
Southern coast of Puerto Rico and St. Croix...1 to 2 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of
onshore winds, where the surge will be accompanied by large and
destructive waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative
timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over
short distances. For information specific to your area, please see
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected within the hurricane
warning area by tonight, with tropical storm conditions
beginning later today. Tropical storm conditions are expected within
the tropical storm warning area where hurricane conditions are also
possible.

RAINFALL: Irma is expected to produce total rainfall accumulations
of 4 to 8 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 12 inches across
the northern Leeward Islands, the British and U.S. Virgin Islands,
and Puerto Rico. These rainfall amounts may cause life-threatening
flash floods and mudslides.

SURF: Swells generated by Irma will affect the northern Leeward
Islands, Puerto Rico, and the U.S. and British Virgin Islands
during the next several days. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 AM AST.
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Avila

[Image: al112017.gif]

[Image: 20170905.1115.goes13.x.vis1km_high.11LIR....100pc.jpg]
[Image: storm_11]
000
WTNT61 KNHC 051147
TCUAT1

Hurricane Irma Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL112017
745 AM AST Tue Sep 05 2017

...HURRICANE IRMA BECOMES A CATEGORY 5 ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
HURRICANE WIND SCALE
...

NOAA and Air Force hurricane hunter aircraft data indicate Hurricane
Irma has intensified into an extremely dangerous Category 5
hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale with maximum
winds of 175 mph (280 km/h) with higher gusts. A special advisory
will be issued at 800 AM AST (1200 UTC) in lieu of the scheduled
intermediate advisory for Irma.


SUMMARY OF 745 AM AST...1145 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.7N 57.7W
ABOUT 270 MI...440 KM E OF ANTIGUA
ABOUT 280 MI...445 KM ESE OF BARBUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...175 MPH...280 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...929 MB...27.44 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Brown/Landsea

000
WTNT31 KNHC 051159
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Hurricane Irma Special Advisory Number 25
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL112017
800 AM AST Tue Sep 05 2017

...IRMA BECOMES AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY 5 HURRICANE...
...PREPARATIONS SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION IN THE HURRICANE
WARNING AREA...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM AST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.7N 57.7W
ABOUT 270 MI...440 KM E OF ANTIGUA
ABOUT 280 MI...445 KM ESE OF BARBUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...175 MPH...280 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...929 MB...27.44 INCHES
HERE IS WHAT A CAT 5 LOOKS LIKE:


[Image: 2017-09-05-123142-16.683N-57.867W-NOAA-2...Center.png]



[Image: recon_NOAA2-0711A-IRMA_timeseries.png]


scary situation if it runs all the way through fl
Just an incredible storm. I will be starting prep today here in the Mobile area. I hope it doesn't come here but it better to be prepared and have a ton of extra supplies then wait and get caught off guard. I have seen too many in my lifetime that defy models and do what they want.
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