Hardcore Weather

Starting to see lots of discussion with Euro and CMC in agreement for a low off Yucatan/Bay of Campeche about 7-8 days away, making land in central FL about 9-10 days out...central pressure only moderately more impressive than Bonnie...same models showing a low heading up toward NOLA on some runs....too far off to really know what's actually brewing, but think an eye on the Gulf may be warranted...

(05-30-2016 08:54 PM)Her-icane Wrote: [ -> ]Starting to see lots of discussion with Euro and CMC in agreement for a low off Yucatan/Bay of Campeche about 7-8 days away, making land in central FL about 9-10 days out...central pressure only moderately more impressive than Bonnie...same models showing a low heading up toward NOLA on some runs....too far off to really know what's actually brewing, but think an eye on the Gulf may be warranted...

I saw that too
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.cg...=Animation

Looking increasingly like SOMEthing to watch next week...nothing looks to be 'cane at this time...

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000
ABNT20 KNHC 012324
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT WED JUN 1 2016

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The NOAA Weather Prediction Center is issuing advisories on
Post-Tropical Cyclone Bonnie, located about 100 miles east of
Wilmington, North Carolina.

A broad low pressure area may form over the southern Gulf of Mexico
by early next week. Additional development of the low should be
slow to occur as the low moves slowly north-northeastward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent

$$
Forecaster Brown

2pm

Quote: A broad low pressure area is expected to form over the Yucatan
Peninsula of Mexico or the southern Gulf of Mexico by late in the
weekend. Additional development of the low could occur as it
subsequently moves north-northeastward across the central or
eastern Gulf of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent

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1115 AM EDT THU 02 JUNE 2016
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 03/1100Z TO 04/1100Z JUNE 2016
TCPOD NUMBER.....16-007

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.
3. ADDITIONAL DAY OUTLOOK: POSSIBLE LOW-LEVEL INVEST NEAR YUCATAN
PENINSULA FOR 05/2000Z.
4. REMARK: MISSION TASKED FOR 02/1800Z IN TCPOD 16-006 WILL FLY
AS SCHEDULED TODAY.

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Tropical Threat to Florida Next Week; Floods Persist in Texas, Europe

By:Jeff Masters and Bob Henson , 4:16 PM GMT on June 02, 2016


The next named storm for the Atlantic will be named Colin, and there is one potential area to watch for its development early next week: over the Western Caribbean, where a large area of low pressure laden with plenty of tropical moisture is expected to form. This low and its associated moisture will ride up to the north-northeast into the southern Gulf of Mexico on Sunday, and start spreading heavy rains over Florida on Monday. About 10% - 30% of the members of the ensemble runs of the 00Z Thursday GFS and European models showed a tropical depression forming in the Gulf of Mexico or Western Caribbean near Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula early next week, with the storm making landfall along the west coast of Florida on Tuesday. There will be some high wind shear and dry air over the central Gulf of Mexico early next week in association with an upper-level trough of low pressure, and these conditions will likely interfere with development, making intensification into a hurricane unlikely. Regardless of development, heavy rains will be the main threat from this system, and 3 - 5" of rain can be expected over much of Florida during the period Monday - Tuesday. In their 8 am EDT Thursday Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave 2-day and 5-day odds of development of 0% and 30%, respectively. Given that the 00Z Thursday runs of all three of our reliable models for predicting tropical cyclone genesis--the GFS, European, and UKMET models--all showed some degree of development, I think the 5-day odds of development should be bumped up to 40%.

If Colin were to develop next week, it would be the earliest occurrence of the third Atlantic tropical storm of a calendar year in records going back to 1851, beating out an unnamed storm from June 12, 1887. One important caveat is that systems as weak as Bonnie could easily have been missed or underreported in the era before satellite observations.


Figure 1. Predicted precipitation for the 7-day period ending 8 am Thursday, June 9, 2016. A tropical disturbance is predicted to bring rainfall amounts of up to 3 - 5" inches to most of Florida, with most of the rain falling Monday and Tuesday. Image credit: National Weather Service.

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Note central pressure forecasts dropping...still not 'cane territory but heading that way....

No change....

ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT THU JUN 2 2016

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Depression Bonnie, located about 50 miles east-northeast of Cape
Hatteras, North Carolina.

1. A broad low pressure area is expected to form over the Yucatan
Peninsula of Mexico or the southern Gulf of Mexico by late in the
weekend. Additional development of the low could occur as it
subsequently moves north-northeastward across the eastern Gulf of
Mexico and the Florida peninsula.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent

Forecaster Pasch

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.
Keep your eyes on the gulf....
.
.

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From flhurricane.com - Central Florida Hurricane Center

Quote:

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Shear is just got to rip this thing to shreds next week

8AM

Quote: TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT FRI JUN 3 2016

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Depression Bonnie, located about 130 miles east-northeast of Cape
Hatteras, North Carolina.

1. An area of showers and thunderstorms has developed over the western
Caribbean Sea. This system is moving west-northwestward toward the
Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico, and a low pressure area is expected to
form over the Yucatan or the adjacent waters by late this weekend.
This low could develop into a tropical cyclone as it subsequently
moves across the eastern Gulf of Mexico and the Florida Peninsula
early next week. Regardless of development, locally heavy rains and
flooding are possible over portions of the Yucatan Peninsula,
western Cuba and the Florida Peninsula during the next several days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent

Forecaster Beven