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000
FXUS64 KEWX 160828
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
328 AM CDT WED SEP 16 2009

.DISCUSSION...
WV SAT IMAGERY SHOWS UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE CENTERED NEAR
ARKLATEX THIS MORNING. FORECAST MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT
THIS FEATURE WILL RETROGRADE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS
WILL ALLOW SHOWERS TO SPREAD BACK INTO THE NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES
STARTING THIS AFTERNOON. THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THIS AREA THROUGH FRI MAINLY DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS EACH DAY.

ON SAT THE UPPER PATTERN WILL BRING TROPICAL MOISTURE ACROSS
NORTHERN MEXICO INTO SOUTH TEXAS. THIS WILL MEAN A SLIGHT CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA SAT AND SUN. MON A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL DROP DOWN INTO NORTH TX AND RAIN CHANCES WILL
CONTINUE MON AND MON NIGHT AS THE FRONT MOVES SOUTHWARD. TUE THIS
SYSTEM WILL EXIT THE AREA BRINGING A RETURN OF DRY WEATHER.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 89 67 84 68 88 / 20 20 30 20 20
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 88 67 86 68 88 / 20 20 20 20 20
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 90 68 87 68 88 / 10 10 20 10 10
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 84 66 82 66 84 / 20 20 30 20 20
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 94 70 91 67 88 / 10 10 10 10 20
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 84 67 82 66 86 / 30 20 30 20 20
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 95 64 91 66 89 / 10 10 10 10 10
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 89 67 86 67 87 / 20 20 20 20 20
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 86 69 87 70 88 / 20 20 20 20 20
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 91 66 88 67 89 / 10 10 10 10 10
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 93 67 91 69 88 / 10 10 10 10 10

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

05/11
000
FXUS64 KEWX 182018
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
318 PM CDT FRI SEP 18 2009

.DISCUSSION...SURFACE BASED MOISTURE A LITTLE HIGHER THAN YESTERDAY
SO EXPECT SOME STRATUS DEVELOPMENT LATE TONIGHT FROM THE RIO
GRANDE PLAINS NORTHEAST TO NORTHEAST AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE
CWA. MAYBE A LITTLE WARMER TONIGHT AS WELL WITH THE HIGHER SURFACE
MOISTURE COUPLED WITH HIGHER LEVEL PACIFIC MOISTURE AND CLOUD
DEBRIS FROM MEXICAN MOUNTAIN CONVECTION. NO REAL CHANGE IN AIR MASS
SATURDAY AND WITH 850 MILLIBAR LOW WEAKER AND A LITTLE FURTHER TO
THE EAST..LESS COLD ADVECTION EXPECTED. WINDS SHOULD BE LIGHTER AS
A RESULT AND AFTERNOON READINGS A TAD WARMER. PACIFIC MOISTURE
PLUME IN EVIDENCE ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS TOMORROW WITH
CONVERGENT SHOWERS AND STORMS POSSIBLE OVER THE EXTREME SOUTHWEST
CWA. UPSLOPE SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP SUNDAY IN RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW
ACROSS WEST AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE CWA AS A WEAK DISTURBANCE
DIGS SOUTHEAST INTO WEST TEXAS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE MONDAY ACROSS SOUTHERN AND EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE CWA AS
THE DISTURBANCE SHEARS EASTWARD. MODELS FORECAST THE FIRST
BONAFIDE COLD FRONT OF THE SEASON INTO THE REGION EARLY
TUESDAY..WHICH HAPPENS TO BE MOST APPROPRIATELY.. THE FIRST DAY OF
AUTUMN. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL LINE THE FRONT EARLY
TUESDAY..THEN SOME ELEVATED SHOWERS AND STORMS MAY DEVELOP BEHIND
THE FRONT IN THE BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND JET. A DRY COOL
AUTUMN LIKE RIDGE WILL BUILD IN TUESDAY NIGHT AS CLOUDS DECREASE
AND RAIN CHANCES LOWER. THE UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL
U.S. PLAINS WILL MOVE LITTLE THROUGH SATURDAY WITH SOME SCATTERED
OVERRUNNING OR ELEVATED LIGHT RAIN OR SHOWERS POSSIBLE THURSDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 71 87 72 92 74 / 10 10 10 10 10
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 70 89 70 92 69 / 10 10 10 10 10
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 70 89 70 91 70 / 10 10 10 10 10
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 68 84 69 87 71 / 10 10 10 10 10
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 70 89 72 91 74 / 10 10 10 20 10
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 68 86 70 89 72 / 10 10 10 10 10
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 69 89 70 90 71 / 10 10 10 30 20
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 71 90 70 90 70 / 10 10 10 10 10
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 71 88 71 90 74 / 10 10 10 10 10
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 72 89 73 91 72 / 10 10 10 20 10
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 72 91 72 91 74 / 10 10 10 20 10

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$

02/25
000
FXUS64 KEWX 202043
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
343 PM CDT SUN SEP 20 2009

.DISCUSSION...
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND STREAM
NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION. GENERALLY EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY TO
CONTINUE OVERNIGHT...BUT WILL BE VERY LIMITED IN AREAL COVERAGE.
ANOTHER WARM DAY IS ON TAP FOR MONDAY AS WARM SOUTHERLY FLOW
INCREASES AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT. COULD SEE SOME
PATCHY FOG TOMORROW MORNING AS MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL BE
SUFFICIENT...BUT ANY FOG WHICH DEVELOPS SHOULD NOT BE MUCH OF AN
IMPACT SO HAVE LEFT IT OUT OF THE GRIDS. WITH THE MOIST SOUTHERLY
FLOW COULD SEE SOME MAINLY AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA...BUT AGAIN WILL BE ISOLATED IN
NATURE.

RAIN CHANCES WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE AREA-WIDE MONDAY NIGHT AND
PEAK ON TUESDAY AS THE FROPA PUSHES TOWARD THE COAST. PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES WILL BE CLOSE TO OR ABOVE 2 INCHES ACROSS SOUTH
CENTRAL TEXAS ON TUESDAY. HEAVY RAINFALL WITH ISOLATED TOTALS OF
2 TO 4 INCHES (POSSIBLY HIGHER IF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLS AND
ALLOWS REDEVELOPMENT OF STORMS) CAN THUS BE EXPECTED TUESDAY AND
INTO WEDNESDAY. ADDITIONALLY...WITH AMPLE MOISTURE IN THE BOUNDARY
LAYER...INSTABILITY FROM THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND PROXIMITY OF THE
UPPER JET STREAK...COULD SEE SOME STORMS APPROACH SEVERE CRITERIA
WITH HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS BEING THE PRIMARY CONCERNS.

THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO GET HUNG UP ALONG THE COAST MID-WEEK AS
THE UPPER LOW REMAINS ALMOST STATIONARY ACROSS THE GREAT PLAINS.
THIS WILL LEAD TO RENEWED CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THE BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL BE
PREDOMINANTLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA DUE TO THE
BETTER TAP OF GULF MOISTURE AND PROXIMITY TO THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY MORNING WILL BE NOTICEABLY COOLER WITH
AFTERNOON HIGHS BEING KEPT TO THE LOWER 80S MAINLY BECAUSE OF
LIMITED SUNSHINE AND AREAS OF RAIN AND WEAK CAA. AS THE UPPER LOW
EJECTS TO THE EAST LATE IN THE WEEK...WILL SEE A WARMING TREND
ENSUE WITH MAX TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO THE UPPER 80S BY FRIDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 73 92 71 82 63 / 30 30 40 60 30
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 71 91 70 83 63 / 30 40 40 60 30
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 71 92 72 83 62 / 30 30 30 60 30
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 71 89 68 79 59 / 30 30 40 50 20
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 74 94 72 84 63 / 20 10 20 30 20
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 72 90 69 79 61 / 30 30 50 50 20
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 71 92 71 84 62 / 30 20 30 40 30
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 72 92 71 83 63 / 30 30 30 60 30
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 73 91 72 84 66 / 20 40 30 70 30
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 73 91 73 83 63 / 30 30 30 50 30
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 74 92 73 84 64 / 30 30 30 50 30

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

25/01
000
FXUS64 KEWX 211705
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1205 PM CDT MON SEP 21 2009

.AVIATION...
WARM SWLY LOW LEVEL WINDS PREVAILING THIS AFTERNOON WITH CONDITIONS
QUICKLY BECOMING VFR ALL AREAS. THE SWLY BREEZES WERE OCCURRING AHEAD
OF THE DRY LINE IN WEST TX AND A COLD FRONT IN NW TX. ISOLATED
SHRA/TSRA WILL DEVELOP WITH HEATING THIS AFTERNOON...MAINLY OVER
THE COASTAL PLAINS SE OF KSAT AND ALONG THE DRY LINE LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING NEAR KDRT. THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE SWD TONIGHT AND MOVE TO NEAR KDRT-50NW KSAT-25W KAUS LINE BY
SUNRISE TUESDAY. MVFR CIGS WILL QUICKLY DEVELOP 05Z-07Z AS GULF
MOISTURE FEEDS INTO S CENTRAL TX AHEAD OF THE FRONT...BUT UNCERTAIN
MVFR CIGS WILL SPREAD AS FAR WEST TO KDRT. SCT TO NMRS SHRA/TSRA
WILL DEVELOP WITH THE COLD FRONT AND SPREAD ACROSS S CENTRAL TX
TUESDAY MORNING. IN ADDITION VARIABLE MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE
IN THE SHRA/TSRA TUESDAY MORNING. A FEW TSRA COULD APPROACH SEVERE
BY 18Z.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1056 AM CDT MON SEP 21 2009/

UPDATE...
APPROACHING COLD FRONT HAS PASSED THROUGH LUBBOCK AND WILL
CONTINUE ITS TREK SOUTHWARD TODAY. MEANWHILE...TEMPERATURES AHEAD
OF THE FRONT WILL RISE INTO THE LOWER TO MID-90S ACROSS SOUTH
CENTRAL TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON. WITH AMPLE GULF MOISTURE THROUGH THE
BOUNDARY LAYER AND DRYING IN THE MID-LEVELS...COULD SEE AN ISOLATED
STRONG TO BORDERLINE SEVERE STORM LATE IN THE DAY. RAIN CHANCES
WILL INCREASE FROM THE NORTH THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS THE LOW
APPROACHED THE HILL COUNTRY. NO UPDATES NECESSARY TO ONGOING
FORECAST.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 650 AM CDT MON SEP 21 2009/

AVIATION...
PATCHES OF MVFR CIGS 010-025BKN STRATUS WILL PERSIST THROUGH MID
MORNING AROUND 16Z, OTHERWISE VFR SKIES 035-060SCT-BKN
STRATOCUMULUS AND CUMULUS WILL PREVAIL TODAY INTO THIS EVENING.
ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA CAN BE EXPECTED AND WILL ONLY MENTION CB AT THE
TAF SITES DUE TO UNCERTAINTY ON IMPACTS WITHIN THE VCNTY. AREAS
OF STRATUS WILL REDEVELOP DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH MVFR CIGS
010-025BKN. S TO SE WINDS 4 TO 14 KTS WILL PREVAIL WITH SOME GUSTS
UP TO 20 KTS. ISOLATED DOWNDRAFT WIND GUSTS UP TO NEAR 45 KTS ARE
POSSIBLE IN AND NEAR TSRA. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO NORTHERN
HILL COUNTRY TO EDWARDS PLATEAU EARLY TUESDAY MORNING AFTER 10Z.
THERE ARE CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS JUST OF AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND
WILL MENTION PROB30S AT KAUS AND KDRT. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO NLY
WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE AT THE TAF SITES AND THE REMAINDER OF
SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS TUESDAY MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. RAIN
CHANCES WILL ALSO INCREASE.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 523 AM CDT MON SEP 21 2009/

DISCUSSION...
FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT...DEEP MOISTURE LOADING OVER THE COASTAL
PLAINS COULD RESULT IN ISOLATED STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTH CENTRAL TX EARLY THIS
EVENING. ANY SPECIFIC THREAT AREA WOULD BE HARD TO PIN DOWN AT
THIS TIME. A PASSING SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE AND JET STREAK WILL
BRIEFLY BRING A MID-LEVEL INTRUSION OF DRY AND STABLE AIR INTO
SOUTH CENTRAL TX TODAY. THIS SHOULD RAISE TEMPERATURES INTO THE
LOW TO MID 90S AND SET UP A POSSIBLE DRYLINE FEATURE OVER THE
AREA. A SIMILAR FEATURE PRODUCED ISOLATED SEVERE WEATHER OVER THE
SOUTHERN EDWARDS PLATEAU SUNDAY EVENING.

A LARGE APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING AN APPROACHING
FRONT AND POSSIBLY SET UP A PREFRONTAL TROUGH OR MCS FEATURE LATE
TONIGHT OVER WEST CENTRAL/NORTH CENTRAL TX; THIS FEATURE COULD
BRING A HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL, BUT THE FEATURE IS CURRENTLY
EXPECTED TO STAY JUST NORTH OF THE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT.

TUESDAY INTO EXTENDED...COMPLEX SPLIT FLOW PATTERN WILL MAKE FOR
UNSTABLE WEATHER MUCH OF THIS WEEK AND A COLD FRONT INTO SOUTH
CENTRAL TX ON TUESDAY. A LARGE UPPER LOW WILL DROP SE FROM THE NRN
ROCKIES INTO THE SRN HIGH PLAINS BY MID-WEEK. MODELS HAVE
PREVIOUSLY BEEN ADVERTISING A SIGNIFICANT COLD FRONT WITH 10-15
DEGREE DROPS IN TEMPS FOR LATE TUESDAY THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY.
HOWEVER, RECENT TRENDS HAVE THE TROUGH FAILING TO MOVE AS FAR
SOUTH AS PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED, AND THIS COULD LIMIT THE AMOUNT OF
COOLING, ESPECIALLY AT NIGHT. THE 00Z GFS TRENDS BACKED OFF THE
PREVIOUSLY COOLER LOWS FOR WED/THURS MORNINGS, AND THIS FORECAST
PACKAGE FOLLOWED THE TREND AT LEAST PARTIALLY. MEANWHILE NAM
MODEL CONVECTIVE TRENDS ARE LEANING TOWARDS A PERSISTENT COASTAL
TROUGH PATTERN OVER SOUTH TX IN THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. THIS
EXPECTED SCENARIO IS REINFORCED BY TRENDS OF THE SUBTROPICAL JET
WHICH COULD BE INVIGORATED LATER THIS WEEK BY AN APPROACHING JET
STREAK CURRENTLY NEAR HAWAII.

A CHANCE FOR HEAVY RAIN COULD OCCUR GENERALLY EAST OF HWY 281 FROM
THE TUESDAY FRONT AND POSSIBLY A PRE-FRONTAL BOUNDARY OR MCS
ACTIVITY FROM EARLY IN THE DAY. HOWEVER, THE HEAVY RAINFALL
POTENTIAL OVER SOUTH CENTRAL TX APPEARS WEAKER AND FARTHER SOUTH
THAN IT DID YESTERDAY. THE EXPECTED COASTAL TROUGH FEATURE
SHOULD THEN FOCUS ACTIVITY OVER THE COASTAL BEND FOR A COUPLE DAYS
WHILE STILL SENDING MOSTLY ELEVATED MOISTURE INTO SOUTH CENTRAL
TX. THIS PATTERN SHOULD REINFORCE A LONGER PERIOD OF NE WINDS,
CLOUDY SKIES, AND INVERSION CHARACTERISTICS; THUS WILL LEAN COOLER
THAN MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY.

HEAVY RAINFALL FOCUS (SEE AFDCRP) ALONG THE COAST COULD REFOCUS
FARTHER INLAND LATER THIS WEEK IF THE SUBTROPICAL JET COMES IN
WITH EXTRA SHORTWAVE ENERGY THAT COULD UNDERCUT THE SLOW DEPARTING
UPPER LOW TO THE NORTH. RAIN CHANCE TRENDS ARE INCREASING FOR
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

LATE IN THE WEEK, THE FARTHER NORTH TRENDS OF THE DEPARTING UPPER
LOW HAS LEFT A WARMER FORECAST FOR THE WEEKEND; THE PATTERN ALOFT
SHOULD BECOME MORE STABLE FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK, BUT THIS WARMER,
DRIER PATTERN IS IN LOW CONFIDENCE DUE TO INCREASING SIGNS OF
CONTINUED SPLIT FLOW ALOFT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 72 80 65 81 66 / 40 70 50 20 30
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 72 81 65 81 64 / 30 70 50 30 30
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 74 82 65 82 65 / 30 70 50 30 40
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 69 76 61 79 62 / 40 60 30 20 20
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 70 84 63 83 65 / 20 30 20 20 20
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 70 79 63 80 63 / 40 60 40 20 30
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 73 83 64 82 64 / 20 50 40 20 30
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 74 81 65 82 64 / 30 70 50 30 40
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 74 83 67 80 67 / 30 70 60 40 40
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 74 82 66 82 67 / 20 60 50 20 40
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 75 83 66 82 65 / 20 60 50 30 40

&&
000
FXUS64 KEWX 221512
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1012 AM CDT TUE SEP 22 2009

.UPDATE...
THE ACTUAL COLD FRONT GENERALLY THRU THE HILL COUNTRY AND ALONG
THE ESCARPMENT THIS MORNING WITH CONVECTIVE GUST FRONT MOVING
ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE/COASTAL PLAINS. CONVECTION TAPERING OFF
OVER THE FAR WESTERN CWA AT THIS TIME AND WILL CONTINUE HAVE THE
THREAT OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AS SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TRAIN
NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN COUNTIES THE
REMAINDER OF THE MORNING THRU MID AFTERNOON. EXPECT MAINLY URBAN
OR SMALL STREAM ADVISORIES FOR THIS LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL GIVEN
THE FASTER MOVEMENT/DURATION. 12Z PW AT KCRP WAS WELL OVER TWO
INCHES...HOWEVER DEEPENING SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
GRADUALLY CUT OFF THE INFLOW OF THE TROPICAL AIR AND FOCUS THE
HEAVIER RAINS TO THE SOUTH EAST TOWARD THE MID AND LATE AFTERNOON.

INCREASED THE NLY WINDS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT A CATEGORY AS THE
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT SUPPORT HIGHER WIND SPEEDS THAN THE
ADVERTISED 10 TO 15 MPH. CURRENT FORECAST HIGHS STILL LOOK TO BE
ATTAINABLE AND WILL NOT ADJUST YET.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 643 AM CDT TUE SEP 22 2009/

AVIATION...
A COLD FRONT ALONG A KDRT TO KSAT TO KARM LINE WILL MOVE SOUTH OF
THE AREA BY LATE MORNING. AN AREA OF NUMEROUS SHRA AND ISOLATED
TSRA WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING INTO THIS
AFTERNOON WHILE SHIFTING SLOWLY SOUTHWARD. WILL CONTINUE RA AT
KAUS, KSAT, AND KSSF THROUGH 21Z WHEN SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR MOVES
INTO THOSE AREAS. MVFR/IFR CIGS WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY
AFTERNOON, THEN RISE TO VFR. NLY WINDS 10 TO 15 KTS WITH SOME
HIGHER GUSTS WILL PREVAIL.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 432 AM CDT TUE SEP 22 2009/

DISCUSSION...
A COMPLEX OF STORMS WILL HELP DRAW THE COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA
EARLY TODAY. THE 4 AM POSITION OF THE PREFRONTAL ROUND OF STORMS
WAS BEARING DOWN ON THE I-10 CORRIDOR WITH NEAR CONTINUOUS
COVERAGE FOR AREAS EAST OF JCT. WHILE SOME STORMS SHOWED A
POTENTIAL TO APPROACH SEVERE LEVELS CLOSER TO MIDNIGHT, THE
MORNING TIMING APPEARS TO FAVOR NON-SEVERE STORMS. BEHIND THE
COMPLEX, THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPEARS TO HAVE PUNCHED THROUGH THE
SJT AREA AND SHOULD CATCH UP TO THE RAINS, PUSHING THE STRONGEST
CONVECTION SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA BY NOON. THIS MEANS HIGH
TEMPS FOR TODAY SHOULD BE COOLER THAN PREVIOUSLY PROJECTED, WITH
SOME AREAS SEEING A SMALL DIURNAL RANGE THROUGH THIS EVENING.
OVERRUNNING CONVECTION SHOULD CONTINUE BEHIND THE FRONT BUT SHOULD
BE MUCH LESS PERSISTENT THAN THE MORNING ROUND OF RAINS. SOME
HEAVY MENTION WAS LEFT IN FOR THIS AFTERNOON FOR AREAS GENERALLY
EAST OF I-35. THE HEAVY RAIN FOCUS SHOULD CONCENTRATE ALONG THE
COAST TONIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY AS THE WARM OCEAN WATERS
INTERACT WITH THE SHALLOW FRONT.

FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY, THE ECMWF STILL KEEPS SIGNIFICANT RAIN
OVER THE I-35 CORRIDOR AREA, BUT THE DRIER GFS/NAM SOLUTIONS LOOK
MORE PRACTICAL DUE TO THE GULF INFLUENCE. NEVERTHELESS A GOOD
CHANCE OF RAIN WILL LINGER INTO AT LEAST THURSDAY NIGHT BEFORE THE
IMPACTS OF THE SLOW MOVING UPPER LOW PULLS AWAY. COOL AND DAMP
CONDITIONS SHOULD BE ENHANCED BY SURFACE TROUGHING FEATURE ALONG
THE COAST, KEEPING WINDS MOSTLY FROM THE NE. A TRANSITION DAY IS
EXPECTED FRIDAY WITH ZONAL FLOW ALOFT STILL CAPABLE OF GENERATING
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN. A SEASONAL AND DRY PATTERN IS EXPECTED
FOR THE WEEKEND, BUT MODELS KEEP THE PASSING UPPER RIDGE FOR THE
WEEKEND PROGRESSIVE, AND WEAK IMPULSES COULD BRING ADDITIONAL
RAINS NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 77 59 79 63 81 / 70 40 20 30 30
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 78 59 79 62 82 / 70 40 30 30 30
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 78 60 79 62 81 / 70 40 30 30 30
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 71 55 76 61 78 / 60 30 20 20 30
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 79 61 80 62 83 / 40 20 20 20 20
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 74 57 79 61 80 / 70 30 20 30 30
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 78 59 79 60 80 / 70 30 20 30 30
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 78 60 79 61 80 / 70 40 30 30 30
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 79 64 79 65 83 / 80 50 40 40 40
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 78 60 79 63 81 / 70 40 30 30 30
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 79 61 79 63 82 / 70 40 30 30 30

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$
000
FXUS64 KEWX 231752
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1252 PM CDT WED SEP 23 2009

.DISCUSSION...
SEE AVIATION SECTION.

&&

.AVIATION...
WIDESPREAD AREA OF LIGHT RAIN EXTENDS FROM THE RIO GRANDE TO
NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES. OFF AND ON LIGHT RAIN WILL CONTINUE AT THE
TERMINALS FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS. CIGS WILL BE VFR AND VIS WILL
REMAIN UNLIMITED AS RAIN IS VERY LIGHT. RAIN WILL END SOONER AT
DRT...BY 20Z. CIGS WILL REMAIN VFR OVERNIGHT. TOMORROW THERE IS A
CHANCE FOR REPEAT OF RAIN AND HAVE INCLUDED PROB30 FOR THE 12Z-18Z
PERIOD. NOT CLEAR ENOUGH AT THIS TIME TO GET MORE SPECIFIC.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 855 AM CDT WED SEP 23 2009/

UPDATE...
FORECAST UPDATED TO INCREASE POPS FOR THIS MORNING GIVEN CURRENT
RADAR TRENDS. ISOLATED THUNDER WAS ADDED TO THE NE COUNTIES AND MAX
TEMPERATURES WERE ALSO ADJUSTED DOWN A CATEGORY OR TWO DUE TO
INCREASED RAIN CHANCES AND CLOUD COVER.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 428 AM CDT WED SEP 23 2009/

DISCUSSION...
AN UPPER LOW WILL MEANDER AROUND THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS TODAY AND
THURSDAY. AN AREA OF RAIN WITH EMBEDDED ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS
THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS INTO THE HILL COUNTRY IS DUE TO AN UPPER
LEVEL SPEED MAX. THIS FEATURE MOVES ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS
TODAY WITH HIGH CHANCES OF RAIN. OCCASIONAL LIGHTNING STRIKES HAVE
BEEN NOTED, HOWEVER WILL LEAVE MENTION OF THUNDER OUT OF FORECAST
AS TOO ISOLATED. EXPECT MOSTLY LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINFALL TODAY.
ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL SPEED MAX/SHORT-WAVE MOVES ACROSS SOUTH
CENTRAL TEXAS ON THURSDAY WHILE A NORTHWARD MOVING 850 MB FRONT
INCREASES ISENTROPIC LIFT AND HAVE INCREASED POPS TO LIKELY ALONG
WITH HIGHER RAINFALL AMOUNTS. THE UPPER LOW MOVES EAST INTO THE
PLAINS FRIDAY TO THE LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY SATURDAY. A TAILING
TROUGH WILL PRODUCE MAINLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS CENTRAL AND
EASTERN AREAS ON FRIDAY AND ONLY EASTERN AREAS ON SATURDAY. WEAK
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL LEAD TO NO POPS ON SUNDAY. MODELS THEN
DIVERGE FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY OF NEXT WEEK. THE GFS AND NOGAPS
GENERATE AN UPPER LOW OVER NORTHEASTERN MEXICO THAT MOVES ACROSS
SOUTHERN TEXAS WHILE THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN MAINTAIN A WEAK UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE. THE GFS/NOGAPS WOULD BE WET AND THE ECMWF/CANADIAN
WOULD BE DRY. FOR NOW, WILL RETAIN ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR
FAR SOUTHERN AREAS. HOPEFULLY, FUTURE MODEL RUNS WILL COME TO A
CONSENSUS. MAV/MEX TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE SEEMS REASONABLE AND WILL
GENERALLY FOLLOW.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 60 70 61 81 67 / 50 80 30 20 10
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 58 73 61 81 62 / 50 80 30 20 10
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 60 72 60 81 64 / 50 70 20 20 10
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 59 70 60 80 64 / 30 70 20 10 10
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 59 80 61 85 67 / 20 30 10 - -
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 60 70 60 78 66 / 40 80 20 20 10
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 57 78 59 82 65 / 40 50 20 10 10
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 60 71 60 79 66 / 50 70 20 20 10
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 60 74 65 82 69 / 50 80 40 30 20
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 61 74 62 81 67 / 50 60 20 20 10
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 60 75 61 80 67 / 50 60 20 20 10

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$
...
000
FXUS64 KEWX 281519 AAB
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1019 AM CDT MON SEP 28 2009

.UPDATE...
UPDATED FORECAST TO INCREASE 1ST AND 2ND PERIOD QPF AND SKY COVER
SLIGHTLY BASED ON THE 12Z NAM12 AND LIMITED RUC OUTPUT. ALSO
INCREASED 1ST PERIOD POPS OVER EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE CWFA GIVEN
THE SAME DATA AND MORE ABUNDANT ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE THERE
REFLECTED IN SURFACE DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S.

OTHERWISE...FORECAST ON TRACK. NEW SUITE OF PRODUCTS OUT SHORTLY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 648 AM CDT MON SEP 28 2009/

DISCUSSION...
SEE AVIATION SECTION.

AVIATION...
OCCASIONAL IFR CEILINGS WITH MVFR VISIBILITIES IN FOG WILL AFFECT
KSSF TO KAUS THROUGH 15Z. A COLD FRONT IS MOVING SOUTH AT 22 KTS
THROUGH NORTH TEXAS AND WILL REACH KAUS BY 17Z, AND KSAT TO KDRT
ARND 21Z. LIGHT SOUTH WINDS WILL BECOME NORTHEAST 10 KTS WITH THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE...AND CEILINGS BECOME MVFR. WIDELY SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ALONG AND BEHIND
THE SHALLOW COLD FRONT.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 338 AM CDT MON SEP 28 2009/

DISCUSSION...
THIS MORNING`S MODEL RUNS (AND THE PAST SEVERAL) HAVE BEEN
CONSISTENT IN USHERING A WEAK FRONT INTO THE AREA TONIGHT INTO
EARLY TUESDAY. THE FRONT..ENTERING THE RED RIVER VALLEY TO THE
SOUTH PLAINS AT THE MOMENT..WILL PUSH SOUTH ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL
TEXAS TODAY..POISED ALONG OUR NORTHERN CWA BORDER BY MIDDAY. S/W
ENERGY IN THE UPPER LEVELS WILL COMBINE WITH LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE
ALONG THE WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO PRODUCE AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A SHALLOW
OVERRUNNING PATTERN WILL BEGIN TONIGHT AS THE FRONT PUSHES THROUGH
THE ENTIRE CWA. HEAVIER AMOUNTS OF RAIN HOWEVER WILL REMAIN FOCUSED
ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT OVER OUR SOUTHERN SECTIONS
TONIGHT. AS SURFACE WINDS BECOME SOUTHEAST TOMORROW AFTERNOON..
OVERRUNNING PRECIPITATION SHOULD END BUT WEAK SURFACE CONVERGENCE
AND GULF MOISTURE SHOULD BE ENOUGH FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER ALL BUT NORTHERN AND WESTERN SECTIONS.
DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE NORTHEAST OF THE CWA TUESDAY NIGHT AS
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. A WEAK WEST NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT AND SOUTHEAST FLOW AT THE SURFACE SHOULD RESULT IN
WIDESPREAD STRATUS DEVELOPMENT TUESDAY NIGHT. AS RIDGING ALOFT
CONTINUES WEDNESDAY WITH SOME UPPER PACIFIC MOISTURE MOVING EAST
ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE RIDGE..READINGS WILL BE AT OR SLIGHTLY
ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS. A PROGRESSIVE UPPER TROUGH ENTERING THE
SOUTHERN U.S. PLAINS THURSDAY WILL BRING ENHANCED WESTERLIES TO
THE REGION WITH ANOTHER DAY OF ABOVE NORMAL READINGS. DRIER AIR
WILL ADVECT INTO THE AREA FRIDAY AS THE PROGRESSIVE UPPER TROUGH
PULLS EAST WITH HIGHS AGAIN ABOVE NORMAL. THE SOUTHERN BRANCH
OF THE JET WILL CAUSE THE WEAK FRONT TO WAVE ALONG THE COAST
WITH SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE CWA FRIDAY
NIGHT. DISTURBANCES EMBEDDED WITHIN THE SOUTHERN BRANCH WILL
PRODUCE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE WEEKEND
PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 92 66 86 70 88 / 20 20 20 10 10
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 93 64 87 69 90 / 30 20 20 10 10
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 92 67 86 69 89 / 30 30 20 20 10
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 88 63 82 69 86 / 20 20 10 10 10
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 94 72 90 74 93 / 20 20 10 10 -
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 89 65 83 69 88 / 20 20 10 10 10
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 93 70 87 71 89 / 20 30 20 20 10
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 93 66 87 69 89 / 30 20 20 10 10
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 92 67 84 71 87 / 30 20 20 20 20
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 93 69 86 71 88 / 20 30 20 20 10
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 94 71 88 72 89 / 20 30 20 20 10

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

11/18/19
...
Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX

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000
FXUS64 KEWX 301555
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1055 AM CDT WED SEP 30 2009

.UPDATE...
WEAKENING FRONTAL ZONE SOUTH AND WEST OF SAN ANTONIO RESULTED IN
SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS AREA HAS DEW
POINTS RUNNING IN THE LOW TO MID 70S AND IS EXPECTED TO TRANSLATE
EASTWARD DURING THE DAY. A BRIEF AND WEAK THUNDERSTORM WILL BE
POSSIBLE IN THIS AREA WHERE INSOLATION WILL BE BEST. THE UPPER
RIDGE WILL OTHERWISE PRECLUDE CONVECTION WITH ABUNDANT CLOUDS
LIKELY TO HOLD TEMPS OVER OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES A FEW DEGREES
COOLER THAN PREVIOUSLY PROJECTED. AS THE FRONTAL ZONE CONTINUES TO
WASH OUT, THE EVENING WEATHER SHOULD BE QUIET; HOWEVER, DEEP LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE AND INCREASING ENERGY ALOFT COMING IN FROM THE WEST
COULD SUPPORT ISOLATED SHOWERS AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE PROGRESSIVE
RIDGE ALOFT SHOULD TRANSLATE EAST WITH THE BASE OF A PROGRESSIVE
NORTHERN PLAINS TROUGH BEGINNING TO ENHANCE RAIN POTENTIAL FOR
THURSDAY. A BROAD AREA OF DEVELOPING TROPICAL ACTIVITY WEST OF
MEXICO SHOULD ENHANCE THIS RAIN POTENTIAL BY INCREASING PACIFIC
MOISTURE INTO AN AREA THAT WOULD NORMALLY BE A DRY SLOT REGION.
THE TROPICAL PATTERN WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY FOR LATER
PERIODS, SINCE A FRONTAL ZONE SETTING UP THIS WEEKEND COULD MAKE
FOR A CLASSIC OCTOBER HEAVY RAIN PATTERN. MANY UNCERTAINTIES
REMAIN, WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE TROPICAL SYSTEM AND THE
STRENGTH, DEPTH AND LOCATION OF THE FRONTAL ZONE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 642 AM CDT WED SEP 30 2009/

AVIATION...
CIGS 1 THSD TO 2 THSD BKN TO OVC IS EXPECTED THRU 15Z. ISOLATED
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED ALONG AND WEST OF A KPEZ TO KT82 LINE THIS
MORNING. CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO BECOME 3 THSD TO 5 THSD SCT
AFTER 15Z TO 4 THSD TO 8 THSD SCT AFTER 19Z. CIGS ARE EXPECTED
TO FORM TONIGHT AROUND 1 THSD TO 2 THSD FT AFTER 05Z. WINDS ARE
FORECAST TO BE S AND SE 10 TO 15 KNOTS...WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS
VCNTY KDRT AROUND 20 TO 25 KNOTS IN THE AFTERNOON.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 610 AM CDT WED SEP 30 2009/

UPDATE...
ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS DEVELOPED UNDER THE RETURN CLOUDINESS.
INSERTED ISOLATED MORNING SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST WESTERN HALF OF
CWA.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 329 AM CDT WED SEP 30 2009/

DISCUSSION...
A PROGRESSIVE SYNOPTIC FLOW WILL BRING AN UPPER TROF ACROSS THE
ROCKIES AND INTO THE CENTRAL U.S. FRIDAY. THE LOW LEVEL JET
STRENGTHENS OVERHEAD AND BRINGS NIGHTTIME STRATUS AND DAYTIME
FAIR WEATHER CU. MIN TEMPS WILL RISE WHILE DAYTIME HIGHS HOLD
STEADY. INCREASING PRECIPITABLE WATER AND MINOR DISTURBANCES ALOFT
WILL GENERATE SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY.

FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY---
WITH THE UPPER HIGH HOLDING FIRM ACROSS MEXICO AND THE GULF OF
MEXICO, THE UPPER FLOW REMAINS FAIRLY ZONAL OVER TEXAS. A COLD
FRONT DROPS INTO CENTRAL TEXAS FRIDAY AND MAKES IT TO THE COAST
FRIDAY EVENING. FROM THERE IS BECOME STATIONARY AND RETURNS AS A
WARM FRONT SATURDAY NIGHT. WITH P.W.`S IN PLACE, SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE COLD FRONT.

FROM SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY-
THE FLOW ALOFT BECOMES INCREASINGLY SOUTHWESTERLY, PUMPING
SUBTROPICAL CIRRUS CLOUDS ACROSS THE U.S. SINCE THERE WILL BE NO
AIRMASS EXCHANGE THIS PERIOD, TEMPS WILL REMAIN SLIGHTLY ABOVE
SEASONAL NORMALS WITH DRY LINE ACTIVITY POSSIBLE OVER VAL VERDE
COUNTY. THE LOW LEVEL JET WILL PROVIDE NOCTURNAL LIFT ALONG THE
ESCARPMENT FOR DRIZZLE SUNDAY AND STREAMER SHOWERS MONDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 84 74 92 70 85 / 10 10 20 30 10
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 85 73 93 69 86 / 10 10 20 30 10
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 85 72 91 72 85 / 20 10 20 30 10
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 82 73 88 64 84 / 10 10 20 30 10
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 91 74 96 70 90 / 20 10 10 10 -
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 83 73 89 64 84 / 10 10 20 30 10
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 86 72 93 69 88 / 20 10 10 20 10
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 85 73 94 72 85 / 20 10 20 30 10
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 87 74 89 71 83 / 10 10 30 20 20
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 85 74 91 72 85 / 20 10 20 20 10
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 87 74 92 74 87 / 20 10 20 20 10

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
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